2016 Election Prediction Thread

[Kembal]

Alright, let's get this going. We're predicting the Presidential race's electoral map, the new Senate's final count, and which party will end up controlling the House.

Presidential:

We're using maps from www.270towin.com. Go there first and fill out your map. Use the Map Options button in the lower left and make sure you're set to only Safe and Tossup - we don't care whether you consider a state likely or leaning. If you wish to give a state to a third party or independent candidate, leave it gray (like it's a Tossup). You may not leave a state as an actual tossup.

When you're done filling out your map, click share map, then click the icon to the left of map options (shows a small picture mountain). This will bring up the HTML embed code. In that code, copy the link referred to in the img src tag in the html code (it'll end with a png extension). Don't copy all the embed code. You then have two options:

1. Just paste the link in your post and use an (img) tag. That'll serve it up from the 270towin.com server.
2. Put the link in your web browser, bring up the map, download it, and then upload it in your post.

Senate: Pick final outcome (like 51-49 D, or 52-48 R). For these purposes, we'll assume that Sen. King (I-ME) and Sen. Sanders (I-VT) will continue to caucus with the Dems.

House: Pick whether the Dems or the GOP will control the House.

Predictions need to be in before Nov. 7. (for obvious reasons)

[Tgo01]

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/7xZvJ.png

I'm 99% sure on this.

Okay good chance Florida will go the other way and MAYBE NC as well, but other than that I am 99% sure.

[time4fun]

8190

Clinton: 352
Trump: 186

-Dems pick up Arizona by a hair by focusing a lot of attention on it for the next few weeks with their A-List.
-Trump barely takes Utah and also takes Iowa but loses the other swing states through a lack of ground game, because the RNC will stop providing anything more than the minimum amount of support needed for optics, and because Trump will continue to dig into "the entire thing is rigged" which will end up hurting enthusiasm in his own base while ticking enthusiasm up in voters who oppose him.

Senate: Dems pick up NH, IL, IN, MO, WI and keep NV. GOP keeps PA and NC by the barest thread, in part because both incumbents will start running heavily as a needed check on a Democratic President (i.e. they'll run as though Trump has already lost) Final count: D51:R49

House: Dems pick up somewhere between 13-18 seats, but the GOP retains control over the House- in large part because down ballot candidates will be given the official thumbs up to run against Clinton's Presidency in the few districts that aren't so gerrymandered that they're beyond contesting.

[Wrathbringer]

Clinton in a landslide.

[Ardwen]

I predict Trump explodes when he hears how badly he loses and runs out of Trump Tower groping pussies all down the street

[Back]

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/P8W9k.png

Jesus. Even in this situation Clinton will win.

[Latrinsorm]

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/OOxwL.png

Shamelessly copied from 538 with a little regression towards Trump. Senate Dem (narrowly), House GOP.
http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/7xZvJ.png

I'm 99% sure on this.

Okay good chance Florida will go the other way and MAYBE NC as well, but other than that I am 99% sure.It's interesting to see you go Ohio blue and Florida red, the polls I've seen and the general demographics are vice versa. What made you go this way?

[Tgo01]

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/OOxwL.png

Shamelessly copied from 538 with a little regression towards Trump. Senate Dem (narrowly), House GOP.It's interesting to see you go Ohio blue and Florida red, the polls I've seen and the general demographics are vice versa. What made you go this way?

I'm God.

[Latrinsorm]

I'm God.St. The Right Honorable Thomas Aquinas (Ret.) tells us that God wouldn't make a prediction so bad even He couldn't make it come to pass. Your claim is suspect!

[Tgo01]

St. The Right Honorable Thomas Aquinas (Ret.) tells us that God wouldn't make a prediction so bad even He couldn't make it come to pass. Your claim is suspect!

You calling my greatness into question? I can have you beheaded for that.

[ClydeR]

I need one clarification before I post the winning map. Do you want the "official" results that the media will report, or do you want what the actual results would have been without rigged election fraud?

[Kembal]

I need one clarification before I post the winning map. Do you want the "official" results that the media will report, or do you want what the actual results would have been without rigged election fraud?

Whatever you feel is more accurate, ClydeR persona.

[Methais]

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/zmA20.png
in b4 triggered

[Luftstreitkräfte]

You idiots kidding? Landslide for Trump except the stupid fucking liberal states.

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/NkLW0.png

[Tgo01]

Well shit, given the most recent turn of events I think I might have to update my map slightly.

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/9en9j.png

Unfortunately I still predict a Clinton win but it will be a much closer race.

[SexualPredator]

My wife has got this election in the bag.

[Tgo01]

My wife has got this election in the bag.

Bill Clinton is Predator? :O

[Methais]

http://images.complex.com/complex/image/upload/t_article_image/dzk3ngtj85ts1jwwfmd3.jpg

[Gelston]

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/Zg6oz.png

This is what I think will happen. Nobody wins this election. Nobody.

[Maerit]

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/Zg6oz.png

This is what I think will happen. Nobody wins this election. Nobody.

Rather - the election will end, and everyone loses.

[Ardwen]

No matter who wins we lose is how this pile of shit will end. Neither of these people have any business running let alone winning an election for dog catcher let alone president.

[Androidpk]

No matter who wins we lose is how this pile of shit will end. Neither of these people have any business running let alone winning an election for dog catcher let alone president.

If you and your whiskey need company on the 8th I'm happy to imbibe.

[Ardwen]

wonder how much a move to Islay would cost. Simple island life seems enticing.

[Someone who isn't Me]

wonder how much a move to Islay would cost. Simple island life seems enticing.

https://s3imgcdn.binnys.com/images/prodimages/163191L.jpg

$54.99

http://www.binnys.com/spirits/Laphroaig_Quarter_Cask_163191.html

[Ardwen]

well yes but not quite as permanent as I meant. Current sipping source is Ardbeg though.

[Androidpk]

wonder how much a move to Islay would cost. Simple island life seems enticing.

Enticing is an understatement. Especially if there are no volcanoes on the island.

[ClydeR]

Well shit, given the most recent turn of events I think I might have to update my map slightly.

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/9en9j.png

Unfortunately I still predict a Clinton win but it will be a much closer race.



That's not a bad prediction. You got Nevada wrong for sure, because of Harry Reid's machine and the angry Hispanic voters. The other three difficult states are Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. It's tempting to rely on the latest poll, but don't forget that all three of those states have early voting.

This election should finally answer a nagging question. Does ground game matter? If Clinton outperforms the polls by one or two percentage points in swing states, then it matters. If not, then everybody should stop investing in it and just campaign like Trump.

[Tgo01]

So the best thing ever is if Trump wins. That's just a fact.

But you know what would be the second best thing? Hillary wins the electoral vote...but Trump wins the popular vote...

Oh man, watch Democrats suddenly say the electoral college is the best thing ever and the system isn't rigged and you're just a sexist if you say otherwise.

EDIT: Okay I take that back, the second best thing is if neither gets 270 then we get to watch the cluster fuck of the House choosing our next president, then the third best thing is what I said above.

Thank you all and God bless.

[Candor]

EDIT: Okay I take that back, the second best thing is if neither gets 270 then we get to watch the cluster fuck of the House choosing our next president

..and if Evan McMullin wins Utah (certainly a possibility), he has to be one of the candidates the House will need to consider. I'm not saying he's going to be chosen to be President, but this is yet another wrench in the works to make this election even more interesting...

[Tgo01]

So going by the latest polls where Trump is either leading or is within the margin of error things COULD look like this...

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/9Blxl.png

I'm not saying this is gonna happen...but this election sure as shit isn't a sure thing for Hillary anymore.

[macgyver]

>President Trump just arrived.
smile
>You smile.

[ClydeR]

So going by the latest polls where Trump is either leading or is within the margin of error things COULD look like this...

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/9Blxl.png

I'm not saying this is gonna happen...but this election sure as shit isn't a sure thing for Hillary anymore.



I already told you that Trump cannot win Nevada. It's almost like you're disagreeing with me.

You can still make your map work if you give him New Hampshire. Although it won't affect the outcome of the election, don't forget that Maine splits its electoral votes, and Trump might get one electoral vote in ME-2, which is much more likely than his winning either New Hampshire or Nevada. 270towin.com allows you to split Maine and Nebraska.

[Tgo01]

I already told you that Trump cannot win Nevada. It's almost like you're disagreeing with me.

You can still make your map work if you give him New Hampshire. Although it won't affect the outcome of the election, don't forget that Maine splits its electoral votes, and Trump might get one electoral vote in ME-2, which is much more likely than his winning either New Hampshire or Nevada. 270towin.com allows you to split Maine and Nebraska.

Your face is ugly.

[ClydeR]

Your face is ugly.

This is definitely NOT my prediction. It's just a two changes from Tgo01's map. I switched Nevada's 6 votes to Clinton and ME-2's 1 vote to Trump. It shows a scenario in which Maine's vote splitting would give the election to Trump, which is who will win if there is a tie.


http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/owK99.png

[Androidpk]

Nice prediction, ClydeR.

[Gelston]

Trump would win under that projection.

[ClydeR]

Trump would win under that projection.

Make one more switch by giving Clinton 1 electoral vote in NE-2, and we're back to a Clinton victory. Obama won NE-2 in 2008 but not 2012. The big problem for Trump on all of these maps is that he has to win every close state. Fail in just one and Clinton wins. Colorado, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio. Clinton is very likely to win two of those and more likely than not to win a third.

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/JNw6y.png

[Tgo01]

Make one more switch by giving Clinton 1 electoral vote in NE-2, and we're back to a Clinton victory. Obama won NE-2 in 2008 but not 2012. The big problem for Trump on all of these maps is that he has to win every close state. Fail in just one and Clinton wins. Colorado, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio. Clinton is very likely to win two of those and more likely than not to win a third.

Clyder why do you let your wannabe Stephen Colbert persona drop from time to time and become your obvious liberal hack self? Why not just hop on your Latrin account when you want to do that?

[macgyver]

Election won't end Tuesday. I see Trump winning the popular and Clinton getting the electoral college vote. May end up going tobthe courts again. Definitely won't end Tuesday.

[Gelston]

Election won't end Tuesday. I see Trump winning the popular and Clinton getting the electoral college vote. May end up going tobthe courts again. Definitely won't end Tuesday.

Um, if Clinton gets the Electorals, it is over.

[Warriorbird]

Yeah. 4-4 court.

[Gelston]

Yeah. 4-4 court.

That was a court decision on a recount. If that sort of thing doesn't occur, which isn't likely, it is just over. And honestly, in the case of a tie, in the Supreme Court, it defaults to the lower court's decision.

[Warriorbird]

That was a court decision on a recount. If that sort of thing doesn't occur, which isn't likely, it is just over. And honestly, in the case of a tie, in the Supreme Court, it defaults to the lower court's decision.

Not necessarily. Though Bush v Gore situation specifically wasn't precedent, you're right.

[Tgo01]

Election won't end Tuesday. I see Trump winning the popular and Clinton getting the electoral college vote. May end up going tobthe courts again. Definitely won't end Tuesday.

As awesome as that would be, I don't see the courts even entertaining the idea of challenging the electoral college.

[Gelston]

As awesome as that would be, I don't see the courts even entertaining the idea of challenging the electoral college.

They wouldn't unless there was some dubious stuff like what happened in Florida is 2000... And that just happened to occur in a state that was deciding the entire election. The case was actually called Bush v Gore, because Bush filed suit to end the recounts. He won. I really just don't see the same sort of thing ocurring with this election.

[Warriorbird]

Challenge in Nevada?

[Neveragain]

I think Trump will win Wisconsin.

[Androidpk]

Bernie wins Vermont
Trump wins NH

[ClydeR]

Clyder why do you let your wannabe Stephen Colbert persona drop from time to time and become your obvious liberal hack self? Why not just hop on your Latrin account when you want to do that?


Some of us are capable of being both partisan and objective at the same time. Learn to separate desire from reality.

[Tgo01]

Some of us are capable of being both partisan and objective at the same time. Learn to separate desire from reality.

Is there really any doubt left that Clyder = Latrin?

[Gelston]

Is there really any doubt left that Clyder = Latrin?

You're ClydeR

[Tgo01]

You're ClydeR

Your face is Clyder!

[Gelston]

Your face is Clyder!

Your mom is ClydeR

[Methais]

We're all ClydeR

[Warriorbird]

We're all ClydeR

/Politics Folder.

[Androidpk]

Clyde is going to post his prediction on Nov 9

[ClydeR]

Clyde is going to post his prediction on Nov 9

Everybody seems to be enjoying discussing it. I don't want to ruin the fun by giving away the ending too early.

[ClydeR]

As you can see by their schedules linked below, Trump and Clinton will be busy this weekend. Where they spend their time can tell you a lot about where they think it is close. The one surprise on both their schedules is Iowa. I'll have to look into that before finalizing my map.

Trump's schedule just shows two campaigners -- Trump and Pence. Clinton's schedule shows Clinton, Kaine, B. Obama, M. Obama, Biden, Sanders, Bill Clinton, Chelsea Clinton, Jay Z, Cher, Jon Bon Jovi, Katy Perry and Stevie Wonder. It looks like Sanders is going for that extra vote in Nebraska.



https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule

https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/






Regarding the celebrities on Clinton's schedule, I've found prior attack Tweets from Trump about the two women celebrities.




http://imgur.com/nVCpe9Xl.png
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/522897870891261952 (https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/522897870891261952)




http://imgur.com/Ks74Iyq.png
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/268449053300383744 (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/268449053300383744)

[ClydeR]

In addition to where the candidates are going, look where they are spending their ad money.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/pro-clinton-battleground-ad-spending-outstrips-trump-team-2-1-n677911?cid=par-twitter-feed_20161104

They're both spending in Iowa. I'm surprised. I thought Trump had Iowa in the bag.

[Androidpk]

Everybody seems to be enjoying discussing it. I don't want to ruin the fun by giving away the ending too early.

Uh huh

[Pneumothorax]

Trump is going to win Nevada. The police union is with him, the biggest newspaper endorsed him, and there are huge amounts of rural population in Nevada. Latest polling showing him up outside the margin of error.

[time4fun]

Trump is going to win Nevada. The police union is with him, the biggest newspaper endorsed him, and there are huge amounts of rural population in Nevada. Latest polling showing him up outside the margin of error.

It's definitely possible, but early voting data in Nevada looks really bad for Trump. Nevada is one of the few states where early voting numbers usually predict the outcome.

And if that's still the case, Trump just lost. Even if she loses NH, NV would put her at 272.

[Latrinsorm]

Is there really any doubt left that Clyder = Latrin?Wouldn't be the first time you were categorically incorrect about something in this folder. :D

[Tgo01]

Wouldn't be the first time you were categorically incorrect about something in this folder. :D

https://media.makeameme.org/created/why-i-oughta-6xe6cb.jpg

[ClydeR]

Uh huh

I understand your skepticism. But it's true! Like Donald Trump, I am mainly concerned about other people. Why else would he be running for office? He wants to help all the little people by deporting the Mexicans, cutting taxes on the wealthy, outlawing abortion and homosexual marriage, and banning Muslims.

[Wrathbringer]

I understand your skepticism. But it's true! Like Donald Trump, I am mainly concerned about other people. Why else would he be running for office? He wants to help all the little people by deporting the Mexicans, cutting taxes on the wealthy, outlawing abortion and homosexual marriage, and banning Muslims.

If trump campaigned on these issues he'd win. Oh wait...

[time4fun]

Early Voting Updates:

CO: Dems holding a slim lead in early voting still. In 2012, GOP had a 2-3% lead in early voting, and Dems won the state. So far, CO looking safely in the Clinton camp

NV: Dems still holding on to an almost 14 point lead in early voting- larger than the 7 point lead they had in early voting in 2012 (NV's early voting numbers tend to be an accurate reflection of the final vote tally). Trump's presidential ambitions probably just died here.

FL: Dems holding on to a VERY slim lead in early voting (like 7k votes), but they had a 3 point advantage in 2012. Having said that, there are two days left of in-person early voting, which tends to overwhelmingly favor Democrats in Fl. If after those two days, Dems haven't outpaced Republicans by at least a few points, Florida is probably a lost cause for clinton. Trump seems ever so slightly favored at this point, especially given this is probably the only state where his ground game comes close to matching hers.

NC: NC Election Commission just released the numbers- it was a record turnout. 44%. Dems have a 10 point lead, which seems impressive, but they had a 16 point advantage in 2012 and still lost the state by about 2 points. Having said that, there are a lot of unaffiliated people, and the record turnout seems to be driven by a big increase in low-propensity voters (who tend to favor Clinton). Jury is out, but if I were Clinton I'd be disappointed. She doesn't need NC, but winning it would completely shut down Trump and also would be important for the Senate majority.

TX: Largest voter turnout ever for early voting- particularly in Democratic strongholds. Having said that...it's Texas.

OH: Having a hard time to get latest numbers on this, but overall the turnout for dems has been lower than in 2012 by quite a bit. In 2012 they had a 6 point edge, so this is probably Trump's.

[Tisket]

Wouldn't be the first time you were categorically incorrect about something in this folder. :D

Passive aggressive use of smiley faces is lame.

[Androidpk]

I understand your skepticism. But it's true! Like Donald Trump, I am mainly concerned about other people. Why else would he be running for office? He wants to help all the little people by deporting the Mexicans, cutting taxes on the wealthy, outlawing abortion and homosexual marriage, and banning Muslims.

Waiting until less than 3 days before the election before posting your prediction isn't really a prediction. You're just playing it safe and safe is boring.

[macgyver]

Dems needed a larger gap in early voting and a far bigger turnout. I feel that this is going to be a surprise landsludish win for Trump. I would use new voting registrants as the primary indicator.

[Gelston]

In the history of the LSU/Alabama Football rivalry, when it falls during a Presidential Election year, everytime LSU has won the Republican did, everytime Alabama win the Democrat did. Geaux Tigers.

[time4fun]

Dems needed a larger gap in early voting and a far bigger turnout. I feel that this is going to be a surprise landsludish win for Trump. I would use new voting registrants as the primary indicator.

You don't really follow the polls or electoral college prediction sites, do you?

[Warriorbird]

In the history of the LSU/Alabama Football rivalry, when it falls during a Presidential Election year, everytime LSU has won the Republican did, everytime Alabama win the Democrat did. Geaux Tigers.

Don't you make me root for Bama!

Don't you put that on me Ricky Bobby!

[Gelston]

Don't you make me root for Bama!

Don't you put that on me Ricky Bobby!

Why would that make you root for the cousin fuckers?

[Methais]

Foosball is the devil!

[Kembal]

May end up revising this when I see early vote numbers for this weekend in NC and FL. Also not sure about NH.

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/AWPjW.png

Dems take Senate, 52-48

House stays in GOP control

[Parkbandit]

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/xPb8X.png

House remains GOP
Senate remains GOP 51-49

[time4fun]

Clinton has a good shot of grabbing either NC or FL, but (contrary to my predictions before) not a great shot of grabbing both at this point. Dems really need at least a 2 point advantage in the early voting to have a chance of grabbing Florida, and right now they're neck and neck with the GOP. Having said that, in-person early voting has two more days (today and tomorrow), so there's time for a change.

In NC, Dems only have a 10 point advantage in final early voting numbers. You've got a LOT of undecided voters and a lot of low-propensity voters (which is good for Clinton), so that may tip the scales here, but there's good reason for both sides to be pretty anxious over NC.

[Warriorbird]

Why would that make you root for the cousin fuckers?

Fair enough, I suppose. I just can't root for Alabama. If LSU wins I can be content in the fact that I'll either be in a country destroyed by a dictator or the Democrats will finally regain Congress, whichever comes first.

[time4fun]

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/xPb8X.png

House remains GOP
Senate remains GOP 51-49

Trump has already effectively lost Nevada. Clark County- which is where 2/3 of the vote comes from- has already had record turnout with a 13-14 point Dem advantage. Obama had a 6-7 point advantage in early voting and won by 6-7 points in 2012. Nevada's early voting numbers tend to mirror the final tallies. Trump doesn't have much hope, if any, of taking NV at this point, which also means the GOP has very little chance of grabbing the empty Senate seat.

Barring any huge upsets in the traditionally blue states- of which there's really no evidence- this election is over for Trump.

[Parkbandit]

Trump has already effectively lost Nevada. Clark County- which is where 2/3 of the vote comes from- has already had record turnout with a 13-14 point Dem advantage. Obama had a 6-7 point advantage in early voting and won by 6-7 points in 2012. Nevada's early voting numbers tend to mirror the final tallies. Trump doesn't have much hope, if any, of taking NV at this point, which also means the GOP has very little chance of grabbing the empty Senate seat.

Barring any huge upsets in the traditionally blue states- of which there's really no evidence- this election is over for Trump.

My prediction will be closer than yours... but then again, I don't base everything on huffingtonpost.com either...

Just to remind you, your prediction is:

Clinton: 352
Trump: 186

[Parkbandit]

Barring any huge upsets in the traditionally blue states- of which there's really no evidence- this election is over for Trump.

PA is now a tie or within the margin of error.

Sounds like a huge upset to me.

[ClydeR]

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/xPb8X.png

House remains GOP
Senate remains GOP 51-49

Did you accidentally click the wrong thing on Maine? See how nice I am?

[Tgo01]

See how nice I am?

Okay Latrin.

[ClydeR]

Waiting until less than 3 days before the election before posting your prediction isn't really a prediction. You're just playing it safe and safe is boring.

Says the person who has not yet posted a map.

[Androidpk]

Says the person who has not yet posted a map.

Oh I have a map I just don't want to influence your decision with my accurate prediction.

[time4fun]

PA is now a tie or within the margin of error.

Sounds like a huge upset to me.

Erm. Quinnipiac has Clinton up 5, PPP has her up 4, CNN has her up 4, Muhlenberg has her up 4.

Her ground game is also beating up the RNC/Trump ground game in PA.

So...keep dreaming.

[Tgo01]

Erm. Quinnipiac has Clinton up 5, PPP has her up 4, CNN has her up 4, Muhlenberg has her up 4.

Her ground game is also beating up the RNC/Trump ground game in PA.

So...keep dreaming.

CNN poll: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/


Results among likely voters have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points in each state.

Do you know what margin error means? I mean yeah, even with the margin error she's still up a whole .5 points according to CNN, but that's really close to call to say it's a sure thing for Hillary.

Do I think she's likely to win PA? Yes. Am I sure enough to bet money on it? No.

[Parkbandit]

Did you accidentally click the wrong thing on Maine? See how nice I am?

Stick with Canada.. because no one cares.

[time4fun]

CNN poll: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/



Do you know what margin error means? I mean yeah, even with the margin error she's still up a whole .5 points according to CNN, but that's really close to call to say it's a sure thing for Hillary.

Do I think she's likely to win PA? Yes. Am I sure enough to bet money on it? No.

Do you understand what poll aggregation means?

[Back]

My prediction: Clinton wins. You saw it here first.

[Tgo01]

Do you understand what poll aggregation means?

lol

[Nathala Crane]

I have no prediction. I'm still busy trying to figure out if Trump supporters are saying Trump is winning in the polls or if the polls are rigged. Because it can't be both.. can it?

[Warriorbird]

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/jKxor.png

Democratic Senate - 50/50 and Kaine votes.

Republican House

[Nathala Crane]

Oh, here.

http://i.imgur.com/QZv4RGk.png

[Warriorbird]

Oh, here.

http://i.imgur.com/QZv4RGk.png

http://crooksandliars.com/files/primary_image/16/01/ba2898c0-3cbf-4e9d-bd2e-179fd3e0bede-bestsizeavailable.jpeg

[Velfi]

http://i.imgur.com/XOJ1Lo3.gif

[Latrinsorm]

Passive aggressive use of smiley faces is lame.I still don't really know what passive aggressive means. But whatever it does, I stand by laughing at Terry's classic blunder. :yes:
Do you know what margin error means? I mean yeah, even with the margin error she's still up a whole .5 points according to CNN, but that's really close to call to say it's a sure thing for Hillary. Do I think she's likely to win PA? Yes. Am I sure enough to bet money on it? No.Margin of error is reported at a 95% confidence interval. If Clin-tan's advantage is clear of 50/50 by the margin of error, she has a 95% chance of winning. And after all the work I did teaching you about the standard deviation in those reefer threads. T_T

[Latrinsorm]

Kembal confirmed Latrinsorm...


May end up revising this when I see early vote numbers for this weekend in NC and FL. Also not sure about NH.

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/AWPjW.png

Dems take Senate, 52-48

House stays in GOP control
http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/OOxwL.png

Shamelessly copied from 538 with a little regression towards Trump. Senate Dem (narrowly), House GOP.

[Stumplicker]

I gotta say, the polls I've seen for Maine feel misleading. I live dead center of the red part of Maine, and for every one Trump supporter, there are 4 or 5 Johnson supporters. The majority of the state is blue, but in the red part, they're very heavily leaning Libertarian. I don't think Trump has a shot. And as usual, the populous areas like Portland and a lot of the coastal towns are heavily blue. I noticed a few of you considering Maine a swing state in your maps. From everything I've seen, it seems like a 50/40/10 split Clinton/Trump/Johnson

[Warriorbird]

I gotta say, the polls I've seen for Maine feel misleading. I live dead center of the red part of Maine, and for every one Trump supporter, there are 4 or 5 Johnson supporters. The majority of the state is blue, but in the red part, they're very heavily leaning Libertarian. I don't think Trump has a shot. And as usual, the populous areas like Portland and a lot of the coastal towns are heavily blue. I noticed a few of you considering Maine a swing state in your maps. From everything I've seen, it seems like a 50/40/10 split Clinton/Trump/Johnson

Might be enough to shave off 2 from my Trump total. Maine loves to be contrarian.

[Neveragain]

8207

[time4fun]

Democratic lead in Florida up to 33k. Not enough, but the counties that are still open for voting Sunday are heavily Dem leaning, on the whole.

[Kembal]

Kembal confirmed Latrinsorm...

Dammit. I should give NE-2 to Clinton just to be different! (Or ME-2 to Trump, but I kind of doubt that one)

[ClydeR]

Here it is. What you've all been waiting for. The 2016 election results..





PRESIDENT|http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/r3YYy.png

SENATE|50-50 D

HOUSE|Republicans

[Gelston]

Your Latrin is showing through.

[ClydeR]

Your Latrin is showing through.

Politics is all about momentum and inertia, which are two things Latrin should understand.

[Latrinsorm]

Politics is all about momentum and inertia, which are two things Latrin should understand.This is true, the best thing Islam did when it invented physics was to give us the concept of inertia. Thanks a lot, Obama!

[ClydeR]

Bookmark this. Start watching it on Tuesday.

http://votecastr.us/

They're breaking the embargo on reporting results before polls close on the west coast.

[Androidpk]

Here it is. What you've all been waiting for. The 2016 election results..





PRESIDENT
|http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/r3YYy.png

SENATE
|50-50 D

HOUSE
|Republicans

.

[Methais]

.

.

[time4fun]

Early voting update-

Miami-Dade and Broward both had record turnout today- combined approximately 100,000 people voted today. Both counties went for Obama by 61-67% in 2012, which means Dems are looking at banking about another 30,000 vote advantage today, not counting the rest of the counties.

[Tgo01]

Early voting update-

Miami-Dade and Broward both had record turnout today- combined approximately 100,000 people voted today. Both counties went for Obama by 61-67% in 2012, which means Dems are looking at banking about another 30,000 vote advantage today, not counting the rest of the counties.

How the fuck did you ever teach logic? How could you possibly arrive at the conclusions you did based on the information you provided?

[time4fun]

ROFL, is anyone else have Karl Rove circa 2012 flashbacks?

[Tgo01]

ROFL, is anyone else have Karl Rove circa 2012 flashbacks?

I think time4fun is smelling burnt toast.

[Parkbandit]

How the fuck did you ever teach logic? How could you possibly arrive at the conclusions you did based on the information you provided?

It was a pre-K class.. and it wasn't really teaching anything, she just said "Does it make sense to poopy in your pants when you could just go on the toilet and not have to sit in your shit all day?

[macgyver]

Anyone know when Florida reports in by? 9 pmish 10?

[time4fun]

How the fuck did you ever teach logic? How could you possibly arrive at the conclusions you did based on the information you provided?

Oh gee, look. Final early voting numbers are in, and I was right! A total of 50k edge in Dem voters banked from yesterday alone.

Sorry Mr Rove, you still don't understand how elections work.

[Wrathbringer]

Oh gee, look. Final early voting numbers are in, and I was right! A total of 50k edge in Dem voters banked from yesterday alone.

Sorry Mr Rove, you still don't understand how elections work.

Like you know more than Mr. Rove. lol Also, if trump wins I'm going to seriously enjoy your qq. Just saying.

[drauz]

Oh gee, look. Final early voting numbers are in, and I was right! A total of 50k edge in Dem voters banked from yesterday alone.

Sorry Mr Rove, you still don't understand how elections work.

I always wondered if this helps or hurts a candidate. Will Hillary voters think they can stay in because they already have the lead and/or will conservatives come out because Clinton is leading the early vote.

[beldannon5]

Middle classnis screwed if screwed if killary gets in. She even said she would raise taxes for the middle class. Seriously dont we pay enough in taxes and premiums

[time4fun]

Middle classnis screwed if screwed if killary gets in. She even said she would raise taxes for the middle class. Seriously dont we pay enough in taxes and premiums

Wait...are you serious?

When the hell is the last time ANY candidate said, "I'm raising taxes on the middle class!" Remove head from sphincter before reading about someone's tax plan.

Her tax plan doesn't raise taxes on anyone who makes less than $250k (http://www.forbes.com/sites/anthonynitti/2016/10/10/fact-checking-trumps-tax-claim-clinton-would-not-raise-everyones-taxes-massively/#2a61c8cf5884). And if that's middle class to you...well howdy neighbor, I assume we live in the same Bay Area neighborhood.

Seriously- when did the Right lose the ability to think?

[time4fun]

I always wondered if this helps or hurts a candidate. Will Hillary voters think they can stay in because they already have the lead and/or will conservatives come out because Clinton is leading the early vote.

I'm personally not aware of any research on this (though I'm sure it's out there), but this argument gets brought up about every four years. <grin>

The tough part is is usually comes up from the right for political reasons, and then it gets completely ignored on the left for equally political reasons.

In this instance though, the democratic advantage (roughly 80k votes in FL, 1.3-1.4%) isn't the great news it may sound like. In 2012 Obama had a 3% democratic ballot advantage from early voting, and he only won the state by .9%. The big X factor this year though is the massive number of non party-affiliated voters who showed up to vote in FL and NC. You can pretty much argue 100 different ways for how it is great for Clinton or great for Trump, but truthfully we just don't know.

[Gelston]

Wait...are you serious?

When the hell is the last time ANY candidate said, "I'm raising taxes on the middle class!" Remove head from sphincter before reading about someone's tax plan.

Her tax plan doesn't raise taxes on anyone who makes less than $250k (http://www.forbes.com/sites/anthonynitti/2016/10/10/fact-checking-trumps-tax-claim-clinton-would-not-raise-everyones-taxes-massively/#2a61c8cf5884). And if that's middle class to you...well howdy neighbor, I assume we live in the same Bay Area neighborhood.

Seriously- when did the Right lose the ability to think?

Any excuse to flaunt your income huh?

[time4fun]

Any excuse to flaunt your income huh?

More an ironic comment on how he's clearly not liberal enough to live in the Bay Area.

But it's cute how threatened you are by that reference.

[time4fun]

Poll Updates-

-Clinton's lead in national polls seems to be solidifying around 4pts- which is about how much Obama won by in 2012 (Times tracking poll +5-6, CVOTER +3, Rasmussen +2, CBS/Times +4, ABC/Wash Post +4, Selzer +3, Monmouth +6, Fox +4)

-Quinnipiac has her up 4 in NC and up 3 in FL. It's a high quality poll, but those are definitely on the high end right now. Could signal a response rate recovery after the Comey news cycle, or could be noise.

-Sienna has Trump and Clinton tied in NC, but early voting doesn't look great for Dems. Their 10 point advantage pales in comparison to the 16 point advantage they had when they lost NC in 2012. Several predominantly black precincts magically had the number of polling locations slashed (in addition to the removal of Sunday early voting). In one instance, a predominantly black county had the number of polling locations reduced from 16 to 1. Because...Democracy.

-UNH polling just released a ton of relatively high quality NH polls showing her up 10-15 points the last few days, which- despite having a solid reputation as a pollster- seems super unlikely

-Emerson has Trump up 7 in Ohio and 6 in MO while having Clinton up 1 in NV (NV is probably already a lost cause for Trump- they've got a 70k democratic ballot advantage, and a majority of the state has voted already)

[Gelston]

More an ironic comment on how he's clearly not liberal enough to live in the Bay Area.

But it's cute how threatened you are by that reference.

"threatened" huh? Do you know what that word means?

[drauz]

Poll Updates-

-Clinton's lead in national polls seems to be solidifying around 4pts- which is about how much Obama won by in 2012 (Times tracking poll +5-6, CVOTER +3, Rasmussen +2, CBS/Times +4, ABC/Wash Post +4, Selzer +3, Monmouth +6, Fox +4)

-Quinnipiac has her up 4 in NC and up 3 in FL. It's a high quality poll, but those are definitely on the high end right now. Could signal a response rate recovery after the Comey news cycle, or could be noise.

-Sienna has Trump and Clinton tied in NC, but early voting doesn't look great for Dems. Their 10 point advantage pales in comparison to the 16 point advantage they had when they lost NC in 2012. Several predominantly black precincts magically had the number of polling locations slashed (in addition to the removal of Sunday early voting). In one instance, a predominantly black county had the number of polling locations reduced from 16 to 1. Because...Democracy.

-UNH polling just released a ton of relatively high quality NH polls showing her up 10-15 points the last few days, which- despite having a solid reputation as a pollster- seems super unlikely

-Emerson has Trump up 7 in Ohio and 6 in MO while having Clinton up 1 in NV (NV is probably already a lost cause for Trump- they've got a 70k democratic ballot advantage, and a majority of the state has voted already)

One county was more than half the closures for the state? I couldn't find a related article.

https://www.thenation.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/GreatPollClosureMap.jpg

[time4fun]

One county was more than half the closures for the state? I couldn't find a related article.

https://www.thenation.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/GreatPollClosureMap.jpg

Same article you posted:


As Ari Berman writes for The Nation:

We're already seeing the impact of polling place closures during early voting in states like North Carolina. The state cut a week of early voting for 2016, which was overturned as discriminatory by a federal court, but many GOP-controlled counties still limited early voting hours and locations, leading to four hour lines in cities like Charlotte and a 16 percent decrease in black turnout compared to 2012. Black turnout decreased the most in the 17 counties that had only one polling site for the first week of early voting.

The cut down from 16 to 1 didn't happen overnight. It's been happening over the last few years. There are now 17 counties with only one polling location open in NC. Guess what the demographics are for them?

Here's (http://civilrightsdocs.info/pdf/reports/2016/poll-closure-report-web.pdf) the report that I think Drauz is referencing, if folks want to read it. 868 Polling locations closed in areas of the country previously covered by Section 5 of the Civil Rights Act- all happened after the Shelby decision that struck section 5 down.

[time4fun]

Update-

Philadelphia transit strike that was giving Democrats nightmares has ended (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/dr-gridlock/wp/2016/11/07/transit-worker-strike-ends-in-philadelphia/). Public transportation will be functional tomorrow for voting in the heavily democratic area.

[drauz]

Same article you posted:



The cut down from 16 to 1 didn't happen overnight. It's been happening over the last few years. There are now 17 counties with only one polling location open in NC. Guess what the demographics are for them?

Here's (http://civilrightsdocs.info/pdf/reports/2016/poll-closure-report-web.pdf) the report that I think Drauz is referencing, if folks want to read it. 868 Polling locations closed in areas of the country previously covered by Section 5 of the Civil Rights Act- all happened after the Shelby decision that struck section 5 down.

Oh, there are 17 counties with one polling site. Not 1 county that had 17 site that now has 1.

[time4fun]

Oh, there are 17 counties with one polling site. Not 1 county that had 17 site that now has 1.

It's actually both (a county has been taken from 16 to 1 over the last several years), but there are also 17 locations- largely in predominantly black areas- that only have one polling station. I will note that the 16 number is something I heard on CNN from some professor they brought in. I haven't seen the original source.

[drauz]

It's actually both (a county has been taken from 16 to 1 over the last several years), but there are also 17 locations- largely in predominantly black areas- that only have one polling station. I will note that the 16 number is something I heard on CNN from some professor they brought in. I haven't seen the original source.

That report didn't show any NC county in the top 15 with the 15th highest having 14. I think he might have been embellishing or going a lot further back.

I imagine these aren't in major cities and they probably have trouble funding these additional polling sites.

[time4fun]

That report didn't show any NC county in the top 15 with the 15th highest having 14. I think he might have been embellishing or going a lot further back.

The report is only post-Shelby. Prior to Shelby, NC had to get approval to do something like close a bunch of polling location in black areas, but their requests were not always denied.

[Kembal]

Last day to make predictions! Gotta be in by midnight CT tonight. (why CT? because that's where I live.)

[drauz]

The report is only post-Shelby. Prior to Shelby, NC had to get approval to do something like close a bunch of polling location in black areas, but their requests were not always denied.

Exactly.

[Gelston]

Last day to make predictions! Gotta be in by midnight CT tonight. (why CT? because that's where I live.)

I'll make predictions when I damn well please. I think I'll put it out on New Years Eve.

[time4fun]

I'll make predictions when I damn well please. I think I'll put it out on New Years Eve.

He'll "keep us in suspense"

[Tgo01]

Oh gee, look. Final early voting numbers are in, and I was right! A total of 50k edge in Dem voters banked from yesterday alone.

lol

You supposedly being right (which I can't even begin to explain to you how little I care to actually look up the numbers) doesn't change the fact that what you originally said was very fucking dumb. In case you haven't realized yet Hillary is not Obama, it's beyond retarded to think things are going to play out exactly the same as in 2012. There are already states Trump is projected to win that Obama won in 2012, even your good pal Nate Silver admits this.

Hillary isn't pumping up the crowd to go out and vote for her like Obama did, Hillary doesn't have the unyielding support from blacks who are determined to show up at the polls for her like Obama did.

Looking at what percentage of a county voted for Obama in 2012, then saying 100k people from that county voted early therefore Democrats have a 30k vote advantage (and implying Hillary has a 30k vote advantage) is so beyond stupid I can't even begin to describe it. Even Latrin was shaking his head at your comment but he's too busy being a partisan hack lately that he doesn't want to correct it.


Sorry Mr Rove, you still don't understand how elections work.

You dipshit, I have always said and still believe that (unfortunately) I think Hillary is going to win, this doesn't mean I'm going to look at incomplete data and draw wild ass conclusions like you. God damn, you are so stupid it physically hurts to read your dumbassery.

[Tgo01]

Shit, even Nate Silver says Democrats were stupid to think early voting numbers would save them in 2014, which is why his predictions don't rely on early voting numbers.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yunhPJR6xFk

He also goes on to say Hillary is a much weaker candidate and much more vulnerable to lose than Obama was at this point in 2012.

But don't let common sense and logic get in your way!

[time4fun]

I told you they would likely bank around an additional 30k dem ballot edge off of Broward and Miami-Dade on Sunday alone, and you went bonkers saying it was impossible to know that. (I was right)

And now you're ranting about the correlation between early voting and final count for reasons that are unclear to everyone.

I get why you like Trump. You two argue the same way.

[Tgo01]

I told you they would likely bank around an additional 30k dem ballot edge off of Broward and Miami-Dade on Sunday alone, and you went bonkers saying it was impossible to know that. (I was right)

God damn you back peddle so fast I'm surprised you haven't time traveled to the year 1800 yet.

You didn't say they would "likely" bank 30k votes, you stated it as a fact and you heavily implied this translated into a 30k vote advantage for Hillary. And I didn't say it was "impossible to know that", I asked how could you arrive at that conclusion based on the information you provided, because your train of thought made exactly zero sense. You didn't provide any information other than 100k people voted in two counties and these counties with 61-67% for Obama in 2012. Okay, that's great. Were most of these 100k people Republicans? Independents? Democrats?

And stop patting yourself on the back so much for supposedly being "right", spout off enough nonsensical crazy bullshit and you're bound to be right once in a while, doesn't change the fact that most of what you spew is stupid bullshit.


And now you're ranting about the correlation between early voting and final count for reasons that are unclear to everyone.

Even your idol Nate Silver said Democrats relied too much on early voting and the numbers polled higher in 2014 and they ended up getting "wiped out" as he put it. But I guess Nate Silver's opinion only matters when he's saying Democrats are going to win everything easily, right?

[Velfi]

Backs for sale here! Get your backs for sale here cheap!

[time4fun]

And I quote:



Miami-Dade and Broward both had record turnout today- combined approximately 100,000 people voted today. Both counties went for Obama by 61-67% in 2012, which means Dems are looking at banking about another 30,000 vote advantage today, not counting the rest of the counties.

So you can go shave your back now.

Bye Jason.

[Tgo01]

And I quote:

:rofl:

What do you think you just proved here?

[Parkbandit]

And I quote:



So you can go shave your back now.

Bye Jason.

How far ahead was Obama in early voting in 2012?

[ClydeR]

Bookmark this. Start watching it on Tuesday.

http://votecastr.us/

They're breaking the embargo on reporting results before polls close on the west coast.


Very interesting. It shows what we would have expected. Ohio and Iowa are very close. Clinton is leading comfortably in Colorado and Florida, both of which have large percentages of the vote completed. She is also leading comfortably in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, but those states have a lower percentage of votes completed and could easily change. Iowa and Ohio are very tight. Clinton is up by one percentage point in Ohio, and Trump is up by one percentage point in Iowa. Both Iowa and Ohio have more than 40% of their vote still to go. No good numbers from New Hampshire.

You can view county level maps, if you want, but you would need to know something about each state to make sense of the numbers.

[time4fun]

If Clinton really does end up only at 58% in Miami-Dade, that could be a problem for her. She should be getting at least 61-62. If Miami-Dade ends up more than 2% higher than that, she's probably got Florida in the bag. If Miami-Dade goes 2-3% lower than that, Trump probably has Florida.

[time4fun]

Trump is on Fox News already referencing made up stories of voter fraud from today's voting, and he's getting aggressive about not being willing to commit to accepting the outcome.

This is going to be ugly. He's such a child, and he'll happily drag peoples' faith in democracy down so he doesn't have to admit a loss.

[ClydeR]

They have some numbers from New Hampshire now. It shows Clinton up by 4 percentage points, but with less than 50% of the votes in. There's a lot of heroin addicts in that state and they probably won't show up to vote until late.

[Geijon Khyree]

I predict this election ends when the polls close.

[ClydeR]

I predict this election ends when the polls close.

An optimist.

[0zymandius]

I predict this election ends when the polls close.

Not a chance. This is going to go another few days, at the very least. Unless Trump wins outright by this evening, which currently seems unlikely (with very limited information available to this point).

[Gelston]

Not a chance. This is going to go another few days, at the very least. Unless Trump wins outright by this evening, which currently seems unlikely (with very limited information available to this point).

Um, it is over whether someone concedes or not. The Florida thing was State mandated. Gore "could" have ended it, sure, but it isn't something he created.

[0zymandius]

Um, it is over whether someone concedes or not. The Florida thing was State mandated. Gore "could" have ended it, sure, but it isn't something he created.

Apologies. I agree with you completely. But I think the 'story' is going to drag on for several days (again, assuming Trump loses) as legal challenge after legal challenge is raised in ever-more-desperate (for lack of a better word) attempts to reverse the outcome. The preliminary lawsuit filed in Nevada makes it look even more likely that this is his plan. It's easy to envision Trump losing, then going on the offensive, decrying the whole process as tainted and refusing to accept the outcome.

[ClydeR]

Donald Trump sued the county registrar of voters in Las Vegas because a polling station at a market stayed open until 10 p.m. on Nov. 4, the last day of early voting in the hotly contested state.

Trump’s campaign said in a complaint filed Monday that the polling station should have closed at 8 p.m. that night and that the ballots and voting machines involved should be set aside pending any challenges to the election results.

More... (http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-11-08/trump-seeks-court-order-against-county-registrar-in-nevada)

They're having a court hearing about it right now. If you didn't get there early enough to vote before the polls closed, then your vote shouldn't count.

[0zymandius]

They're having a court hearing about it right now. If you didn't get there early enough to vote before the polls closed, then your vote shouldn't count.

Agreed. It's not like the hours changed suddenly, they've been known for some time now. While I can certainly empathize with people who wanted to vote, but were unable to get there in time for whatever reason, the times are set and should be honored. That being said, I hope that the overall numbers at the end of the day indicate a wide enough margin (in either direction) that this won't be a factor.

[Gelston]

Apologies. I agree with you completely. But I think the 'story' is going to drag on for several days (again, assuming Trump loses) as legal challenge after legal challenge is raised in ever-more-desperate (for lack of a better word) attempts to reverse the outcome. The preliminary lawsuit filed in Nevada makes it look even more likely that this is his plan. It's easy to envision Trump losing, then going on the offensive, decrying the whole process as tainted and refusing to accept the outcome.

Ah, i see what you mean. Yeah, whoever loses can bitch and moan and try to launch lawsuits all they want... But once the results are verified not much he or she can do.

[ClydeR]

As I understand it, the Nevada suit is about people who arrived the polling place before closing time but did not make it to the front of a long line until after closing time. But he might also be saying that some of the people did not get in line until after the polls closed. There was an unexpectedly large number of voters.

[ClydeR]

A state judge in Clark County, Nevada, rejected a Trump campaign lawsuit in a fiery hearing on Tuesday morning.
The Trump campaign filed a lawsuit in state court on Monday, asking for ballots and voting machines to be “set aside, sequestered, and impounded” from four early voting locations. The campaign alleged that people at those locations were allowed to get in line and vote after the time for voting had concluded on Friday, Nov. 4.

More... (https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisgeidner/trump-campaign-alleges-late-voters-allowed-into-nevada-early)


The line stretched quite a way outside. It will be hard for either side to prove.

[time4fun]

As I understand it, the Nevada suit is about people who arrived the polling place before closing time but did not make it to the front of a long line until after closing time. But he might also be saying that some of the people did not get in line until after the polls closed. There was an unexpectedly large number of voters.

The case has two parts- one is what you pointed out- suing because they didn't turn people away who had already been in line. (Note- that would've been illegal and unconstitutional) The other is that they are claiming Democrats were handing out literature within the 100 ft zone. I'm not sure if they are presenting any actual evidence for the latter.

[Tgo01]

Has Trump won yet?

[Gelston]

Has Trump won yet?

Yeah. Clinton conceded about 20 minutes ago.

[Tgo01]

Yeah. Clinton conceded about 20 minutes ago.

YAY!

[time4fun]

NV Judge shot down (http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-campaign-sues-nevada-county-accuses-workers-keeping-polls-open-n679951)Trump's lawyers in their voter irregularity law suit.

[Tgo01]

NV Judge shot down (http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-campaign-sues-nevada-county-accuses-workers-keeping-polls-open-n679951)Trump's lawyers in their voter irregularity law suit.

So the system is rigged. Thanks, Obama!

[Gelston]

So the system is rigged. Thanks, Obama!

Be ready to enlist in the military before you get drafted. WW3 is coming if Hillary wins. Tell your daughters too, they don't have the excuse of jobs being closed to women anymore to preclude them from the draft.

WW3 is the only thing that excites me about a Hillary win. I've been wanting to get shot in Europe.

[Tisket]

Tell your daughters too, they don't have the excuse of jobs being closed to women anymore to preclude them from the draft.

Yes, because it's been women trying to keep other women from combat jobs all this time.

[Gelston]

Yes, because it's been women trying to keep other women from combat jobs all this time.

Where are you reading that I said or implied that anywhere? The 100% actual stated reason that women were not added to the selective service when it was last looked at in the '80s was because combat arms were not open to them and it wasn't seen as fair. By "they" I was talking about Congress.

[Tisket]

Where are you reading that I said or implied that anywhere? The 100% actual stated reason that women were not added to the selective service when it was last looked at in the '80s was because combat arms were not open to them and it wasn't seen as fair. By "they" I was talking about Congress.

I was addressing your implication that women have been looking for an excuse to avoid combat positions.

[RichardCranium]

I mean, the boys have MRE's so what's the use?

[Parkbandit]

Be ready to enlist in the military before you get drafted. WW3 is coming if Hillary wins. Tell your daughters too, they don't have the excuse of jobs being closed to women anymore to preclude them from the draft.

WW3 is the only thing that excites me about a Hillary win. I've been wanting to get shot in Europe.

Your Chicken Little bullshit is as tiresome and dumb as Warriorbird's.

It'll be ok, no matter who "wins".

[Taernath]

Tell your daughters too, they don't have the excuse of jobs being closed to women anymore to preclude them from the draft.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0J7XnbUN5o

[Kembal]

hey, Tgo, which map is your final prediction? The second or third one you posted? I think the second, but just want to make sure.

[crb]

RCP has it at 274/266 this morning with no tossups. If Trump flipped NH (or any larger state) that'd be it.

[Gelston]

I was addressing your implication that women have been looking for an excuse to avoid combat positions.

That wasn't my implication. Reread what I wrote. Thx.


Your Chicken Little bullshit is as tiresome and dumb as Warriorbird's.

It'll be ok, no matter who "wins".

Your constant bitching and general grumpiness is as tiresome and dumb as time4funs.

[time4fun]

RCP has it at 274/266 this morning with no tossups. If Trump flipped NH (or any larger state) that'd be it.

RCP's no tossup count isn't reliable. It'll literally take a state that's .1% in a candidate's favor and throw it their way- that's not a reliable way to look at the state of the game.

[Tisket]

That wasn't my implication. Reread what I wrote. Thx.


That wasn't your meaning when you said, "Tell your daughters too, they don't have the excuse of jobs being closed to women anymore to preclude them from the draft."? I just assumed, because those were your exact words, that they were what you meant. Silly me.

By the way, you calling PB cranky is irony at it's best.

[Androidpk]

Combat jobs may be open to women but the draft law regarding women hasn't changed (yet).

[Gelston]

That wasn't your meaning when you said, "Tell your daughters too, they don't have the excuse of jobs being closed to women anymore to preclude them from the draft."? I just assumed, because those were your exact words, that they were what you meant. Silly me.


Yes it was. I know what my meaning was. I wrote it. They = Congress. Stop being a dried out cunt lately.


Combat jobs may be open to women but the draft law regarding women hasn't changed (yet).

I know, but I expect it'll be reviewed soon. Last time Congress said it wasn't fair to include them in the draft, because combat arms were closed to them. They no longer have this excuse.

[Tisket]

Stop being a dried out cunt lately.

There it is again...irony. You become bitchier every day. And not in a good way.

[Androidpk]

i think they were going to do it this year but it ended up getting pulled out of the defense bill

[Gelston]

There it is again...irony. You become bitchier every day. And not in a good way.

Just trying to catch up with you.


i think they were going to do it this year but it ended up getting pulled out of the defense bill

Looked like it. Probably just said screw it, let it be on the next administration's head.

[Tisket]

Just trying to catch up with you.

It takes a cunt to recognize one.

I see you!

[macgyver]

It's over, Florida is slipping through Trump's fingers. After Trump loses Florida; Clinton is President.

[Latrinsorm]

I am calling Florida for Clinton right......... NOW

[macgyver]

I am calling Florida for Clinton right......... NOW

The modellers said the same thing. He had a good run though you can give him that much.

[Geijon Khyree]

Florida goes blue we can turn off the TV. He loses Ohio next. Ultimate defeat. Otherwise, he losses my state by the highest margin like 81 to 19pct on 6 million votes.

[macgyver]

Yep, Florida is a must. #depressed

[Gelston]

You people getting all depressed about Florida before the Pandhandle was even closed. The highly Republican panhandle.

[Gelston]

PS, Trump just surpassed Hillary in Florida.

[Latrinsorm]

You people getting all depressed about Florida before the Pandhandle was even closed. The highly Republican panhandle.Everyone knows the Panhandle is highly Republican. The point is that the relative population of the Panhandle is so much smaller than the rest of Florida that projecting the advantage in the more highly populated regions leads to a win, because no matter how Republican the Panhandle is it can only give 100%.

[Geijon Khyree]

I said IF Florida goes blue we can turn off the tv and hes toast, but i lived through gore vs so we already survived a trump win basically.

[Gelston]

I said IF Florida goes red we can turn off the tb and hes toast, but i lived through gore vs so we already survived a trump win basically.

Oh, I'm mostly talking about macguyver calling stuff lost before the damn polls were even closed.

Trump's lead continues to increase in Florida.

[ClydeR]

For whatever it is worth, the VoteCastr experiment posted its final estimates..


VoteCastr’s trackers have now submitted their final reports from the field in all seven states they were tracking today, so the numbers you see in our interactive shouldn’t change for the rest of the evening. For posterity, then, here are VoteCastr's final estimated vote totals in all seven states. We’ll be comparing these numbers to the official returns once they come in, at which point we’ll be able to draw some conclusions about this grand Election Day experiment.

Estimated votes in Florida as of final update:

Clinton: 4,959,569

Trump: 4,644,007

Estimated votes in Iowa as of final update:

Clinton: 659,498

Trump: 645,935

Estimated votes in Nevada as of final update:

Clinton: 504,108

Trump: 496,633

Estimated votes in New Hampshire as of final update:

Clinton: 311,833

Trump: 289,125

Estimated votes in Ohio as of final update:

Clinton: 2,534,965

Trump: 2,516,534

Estimated votes in Pennsylvania as of final update:

Clinton: 2,557,627

Trump: 2,401,513

Estimated votes in Wisconsin as of final update:

Clinton: 1,366,876

Trump: 1,193,322

More... (http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html)

[Geijon Khyree]

The bush years and this senate has been 16 years of the same horrid do nothings.

[macgyver]

You people getting all depressed about Florida before the Pandhandle was even closed. The highly Republican panhandle.

Haven't you been listening to Savant John King, even he kills it in the panhandle Broward/Palm beach is still early. He's going to lose by at least 1%.

P.S. How the heck does John King know all this info, every 4 years this guy makes me feel like I can't add two 2 and 2 together. I wouldn't be surprised if he already knows who's going to win like yesterday.

[Geijon Khyree]

Oh, I'm mostly talking about macguyver calling stuff lost before the damn polls were even closed.

Trump's lead continues to increase in Florida.

Voting day should be a national holiday.

I also dont think news should be able to report until all polls close. That 3-24 or 43-51 skews weird fast.

[Gelston]

Voting day should be a national holiday.

I also dont think news should be able to report until all polls close. That 3-24 or 43-51 skews weird fast.

Well, news reporting is always pretty bad. Some will show "too close to call" while others call it. Based on which candidate they like. It is never exact, as we've seen in 2000.

And yeah, I wish they couldn't. It is Federal law in some other countries.

[Gelston]

GET BACK BITCHES ARKANSAS' POLLS ARE CLOSING NOW. TRUMP TRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAIN

[DoctorUnne]

Just watch the peso. It's down 5% in the past 30 minutes on Trump winning Florida. Best thing to follow real time on overall odds.

[DoctorUnne]

I am calling Florida for Clinton right......... NOW

=O

[Latrinsorm]

=Oall good things come to those who wait :D

[macgyver]

It's Broward/Palm Beach, there's like 500,000 for Clinton right there. Surprised how buoyant Trump is in Ohio. He may carry it.

BTW how are you all getting the latest? John King "I know every corner of the U.S." guy?

[drauz]

It's Broward/Palm Beach, there's like 500,000 for Clinton right there. Surprised how buoyant Trump is in Ohio. He may carry it.

BTW how are you all getting the latest? John King "I know every corner of the U.S." guy?

http://www.theonion.com/

[drauz]

This is a lot closer than many thought it would be, including myself. I honestly didn't think he had a chance.

[drauz]

Republicans to keep the House.

[DoctorUnne]

BTW how are you all getting the latest? John King "I know every corner of the U.S." guy?

On Bloomberg at the office

[Tgo01]

This is a lot closer than many thought it would be.

That's for damn sure. I was so ready to call it for Hillary when I saw Trump down in Florida, NC, and Ohio, now I'm not so sure how this is all gonna turn out.

[time4fun]

Well this is really not a fun night. No matter what, the alt-right won tonight

[Warriorbird]

My 50/50 Senate predictions were clearly generous. Will be interesting to see who got closest on the election itself.

[Tgo01]

538 had Trump at a 28.6% chance of winning 12 hours ago.

I so hope Trump wins now, if nothing else than to shut up that partisan hack once and for all.

[Gelston]

I want him to win for all the qq.

[macgyver]

Holy crap Virginia is tight... Never expected that.

[Gelston]

Virginia was called for Clinton, because Virginia is a northern state.

[Tgo01]

Holy crap Virginia is tight... Never expected that.

Rape culture!!!!

[Warriorbird]

Virginia was called for Clinton, because Virginia is a northern state.

The Deep South stays thirsty?


538 had Trump at a 28.6% chance of winning 12 hours ago.

I so hope Trump wins now, if nothing else than to shut up that partisan hack once and for all.

He shifted prediction models.

Expected electoral votes
Clinton Trump
276.6 260.7

[macgyver]

96% reporting Florida, Trump up 100k. Assume he wins Fl, take NC then this is possible. Wow, just wow.

Again,

> President Trump arrives.
smile
>You smile.

[DoctorUnne]

Betfair already like 4 to 1 Trump. Peso is down 9%. Seems close to over in favor of Trump

[Warriorbird]

Betfair already like 4 to 1 Trump. Peso is down 9%. Seems close to over in favor of Trump

I dunno. There's a lot of Western states and some unfinished Midwestern states. Seems like if Clinton wins it'll be far closer to my 270 call than the people who were declaring 330 though.

[time4fun]

He's getting FL and NC. Thanks Comey. I hope everyone enjoys the new dictator.

[Gelston]

He's getting FL and NC. Thanks Comey. I hope everyone enjoys the new dictator.

What? You change your tune that easy? This shit isn't even almost over.

[Androidpk]

Who's the old dictator?

[Warriorbird]

What? You change your tune that easy? This shit isn't even almost over.

Some Democrats didn't want to believe my more pessimistic model. I'm actually likely to win money on betting it'll be below 300 electorals.

Nate Silver has Trump ahead.

[Fallen]

538 is now giving the advantage to Trump to win the Presidency.

[time4fun]

What? You change your tune that easy? This shit isn't even almost over.

There aren't enough votes left in FL and probably not enough in NC.

The big issue here though is MI. If that's lost, the country is in a lot of trouble.

[Gelston]

There aren't enough votes left in FL and probably not enough in NC.

The big issue here though is MI. If that's lost, the country is in a lot of trouble.

You mean it is about to be fucking great.

[Dendum]

538 is now giving the advantage to Trump to win the Presidency.

Actually they are reporting that new york times upshot model is giving him a 55 percent chance

[Warriorbird]

You mean it is about to be fucking great.

The markets sure don't seem to think so.

[time4fun]

You mean it is about to be fucking great.

No it's not. And if you had been paying attention the last year, you'd realize that.

[Gelston]

The markets sure don't seem to think so.

They'll fix themselves. It is unexpected because people like Time4fun saw polls as infalliable.

[Gelston]

No it's not. And if you had been paying attention the last year, you'd realize that.

I did, I saw a criminal constantly evading justice that would have seen anyone else arrested.

[Fallen]

Actually they are reporting that new york times upshot model is giving him a 55 percent chance

Nah, 538 is giving him a 55% chance to win. It's on the right side of the main page.

[kutter]

The markets do not like surprises, that is why things are acting so oddly, it is a paper loss, it will all settle out no matter who wins.

[macgyver]

Betfair already like 4 to 1 Trump. Peso is down 9%. Seems close to over in favor of Trump

All that crap is basically polls in different form; and you know how accurate polls turned out to be.

[Gelston]

This shit still isn't over anyways, simmer down.

[Warriorbird]

The markets do not like surprises, that is why things are acting so oddly, it is a paper loss, it will all settle out no matter who wins.


They'll fix themselves. It is unexpected because people like Time4fun saw polls as infalliable.

Republicans are traditionally pretty terrible for the markets.

[Androidpk]

According to Jake Tapper the pollsters may have missed a few people this election cycle... You think??

[Warriorbird]

Michigan and Wisconsin. It'll be interesting.

[Gelston]

Even if Trump loses the current qq by Time4fun feeds me.

[macgyver]

How much you wanna bet Obama is fielding phone calls from world leaders right now as we speak?!

[Warriorbird]

Wisconsin is looking rough for Clinton. This'll be close.

[Tgo01]

Even if Trump loses the current qq by Time4fun feeds me.

.

[macgyver]

.

http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/871/793/c2a.gif

[Androidpk]

WHY AREN'T I 50 ELECTORAL VOTES AHEAD!?

[macgyver]

I blame porn. Women shown in such compromising and demeaning situations have subconsciously altered the image in male minds that women can't be strong or lead.

Porn is bad.

[time4fun]

Michigan and Wisconsin. It'll be interesting.

I think she'll pull them, but this election is starting to look like a 272/268 night- which no one saw coming

[Parkbandit]

Well this is really not a fun night. No matter what, the alt-right won tonight

:lol:

[Warriorbird]

I think she'll pull them, but this election is starting to look like a 272/268 night- which no one saw coming

We'll see. Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania are critical.

[Parkbandit]

538 is now giving the advantage to Trump to win the Presidency.

:LOL:

OMG HE WAS RIGHT ALL ALONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!