This crisis-in-the-making was created in the White House. Mr Trump’s reckless trade war has raised tariffs by roughly a factor of ten and created economic uncertainty. Once the envy of the world, America’s economy is now courting recession, as tariffs rupture supply chains, boost inflation and punish consumers.
This comes as America’s historically bad fiscal position is becoming even worse. Net debts stand at about 100% of GDP; the budget deficit over the past year, of 7%, was astonishingly high for a healthy economy. Yet in its quest to renew and extend tax cuts from Mr Trump’s first term, Congress wants to borrow still more. On April 10th it approved a budget blueprint that could add $5.8trn in deficits over the next decade, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a think-tank. That would boost the deficit by another 2 percentage points and exceeds the combined total value of Mr Trump’s first-term tax cuts, the extra spending in the covid-19 pandemic and Joe Biden’s stimulus and infrastructure bills. It could double the pace at which the debt-to-GDP ratio rises in the coming years.