2018 midterm elections

[Methais]

It's pretty magic to see you go from 13 to 40 to 12 so quickly. I'll respond to 40 year old you.

It's pretty standard to see you go from wishing to speak to the manager, to nothing else ever. I'll respond to would like to speak to the manager you.

I've never said it was a lock. But partisan politics has its ebbs and flows. At some point you will just have to accept that I was able to correctly predict the electoral shift left we've seen over the last year in almost 100 special elections. And it wasn't because I'm psychic or a political genius- this country has its own political physics. The shift is as predictable as the shift to the right in 2010.

But directionality and degree are two different things. I've said for over a year now that we would see a shift left, but I never claimed it would result in Dems taking the House or Senate. It's likely that the GOP will lose the House. But it's also likely that they will keep it. There are structural variables in play that I have been talking about for years (gerrymandering, voter Suppression, and the population clustering that has come to define the political left). And there are very some variables at play right now that are so rare as to be borderline unique.

Finally, the impact that Trump's policies have on my life and the lives of my family is hardly a political anamoly. There are a LOT of families like mine. And even more social circles with similar concerns. If you had spent less time jeering at that fact- you might have seen this shift coming.

Food for thought.

That's an awfully fun, fancy way to say that it's not uncommon for Congress to shift away from the incumbent party in midterm elections.

Democrats would be much more likely to take the House if they had more to offer than "We hate Trump and guns!" but unfortunately for you they don't.