2018 midterm elections

[Back]

What does it matter if she claims she is a woman or not?

Pretty sexist of you. You believe women are weak and can't stand up for themselves?

#Backisasexistpig

Thats not how hashtags work.

[Candor]

Thats not how hashtags work.

Don't tell Trump

[Parkbandit]

Thats not how hashtags work.

You sure?

#BackIsRetarded has been working for years.

[Methais]

Wow. What a tough guy. Calling women you disagree with politically 'dumb cunt' on the internet.

She's still not gonna bang you dude.

Thats not how hashtags work.

It is now.

#Backisatarddontworryscrolotsoftardsarelivingreall ykickasslivesmyfirstwifewastardednowshesapilot

[cwolff]

Posted this before because of Cohen's connection to GOP. Have to re-up for the new character in this reality show.

WASHINGTON – Today Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel and RNC Finance Chairman Steve Wynn announced additional members of the RNC’s Finance leadership team:
“I am delighted to announce the addition of these longtime friends of the Party and supporters of this administration to our Finance leadership team,” said Chairwoman McDaniel. “Elliott Broidy, Michael Cohen, and Louis DeJoy will serve as National Deputy Finance Chairmen, and Brian Ballard, Bob Grand, Gordon Sondland, Geoff Verhoff, and Ron Weiser will serve as Regional Vice-Chairmen. Together this team will employ their extraordinary talent and understanding of Americans across the country to maintain and build upon our unprecedented fundraising success.”

[time4fun]

Okay, so there's been this stark difference between the Generic Ballot and the results we've been seeing in Special Elections. The Generic Ballot has been hovering around 6-8 points for the Dems, but we're seeing an average of a 17 point shift left in the Special Elections. The weird thing is that the generic ballot and Special Election data with a large n are both generally good predictors of election results. (Provided the special elections aren't too far away from said election)

This has been commented on by a few folks like Cook and Silver, but there hasn't been a lot of concrete explanation. I usually pour over the Morning Consult crosstabs (because I'm a dork), but today was the first time I looked at the rural/suburban/urban subs.

It looks like Suburban Voters are currently +12 for the Democrats (Silver handicaps MC as 3 points to the right, so that's up to a 15 point advantage...though that's not exactly how handicapping works for subs). That would explain what we're seeing. The Special Elections have largely been in regions with large suburban areas (plus, typically, large rural areas). Between Trump's approval rating softening a bit with rural voters (though still very strong), the increased energy on the left, and the dramatic shift for Suburban voters- that 17 point shift left starts to make sense.

I know this isn't the most mindblowing revelation, but it does help when trying to figure out which way the winds are actually blowing for the midterms.

[Methais]

I'm a dork

I award you One. Self. Awareness. and 1 Captain Harris.

Congratulations sweetheart, you finally did it!

[Parkbandit]

Okay, so there's been this stark difference between the Generic Ballot and the results we've been seeing in Special Elections. The Generic Ballot has been hovering around 6-8 points for the Dems, but we're seeing an average of a 17 point shift left in the Special Elections. The weird thing is that the generic ballot and Special Election data with a large n are both generally good predictors of election results. (Provided the special elections aren't too far away from said election)

This has been commented on by a few folks like Cook and Silver, but there hasn't been a lot of concrete explanation. I usually pour over the Morning Consult crosstabs (because I'm a dork), but today was the first time I looked at the rural/suburban/urban subs.

It looks like Suburban Voters are currently +12 for the Democrats (Silver handicaps MC as 3 points to the right, so that's up to a 15 point advantage...though that's not exactly how handicapping works for subs). That would explain what we're seeing. The Special Elections have largely been in regions with large suburban areas (plus, typically, large rural areas). Between Trump's approval rating softening a bit with rural voters (though still very strong), the increased energy on the left, and the dramatic shift for Suburban voters- that 17 point shift left starts to make sense.

I know this isn't the most mindblowing revelation, but it does help when trying to figure out which way the winds are actually blowing for the midterms.

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE continue to get all your polling data from 538... because Silver was spot fucking on last election night... around 3am when he finally said Trump had a 51% chance of winning.

[Fortybox]

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE continue to get all your polling data from 538... because Silver was spot fucking on last election night... around 3am when he finally said Trump had a 51% chance of winning.

All she does is vomits “sources” and thinks she is super smart for doing so.

[Methais]

All she does is vomits “sources” and thinks she is super smart for doing so.

She probably legitimately believes that the more she posts here on the PC about how much she hates Trump and makes a new post/thread every time Trump farts, the more likely Trump is to go down in flames, as if she matters and is making a difference.

Just do this:



I can't imagine what it's like spending all day every day obsessing over Trump. Must be pretty fucking miserable.