Russia Just Invaded Ukraine

[Alfster]

I don't know why we don't hear more about the Kuril Islands, occupied by Russia for the last good bit. Still territorial Japan, says Japan yesterday.

https://en.lb.ua/news/2022/03/07/103...l_islands.html

Time for popcorn?

Eh. Probably less popcorn and more... Putin now realizing he needs to keep some military assets in the far east. That's my take at least.

[Bhaalizmo]

Eh. Probably less popcorn and more... Putin now realizing he needs to keep some military assets in the far east. That's my take at least.

It's certainly interesting timing by Japan, to announce this week that they still consider that Russian occupied group of islands as their territory.

[Solkern]

Eh. Probably less popcorn and more... Putin now realizing he needs to keep some military assets in the far east. That's my take at least.

I just think the world is now understanding that the Russian military is a joke.

[~Rocktar~]

I just think the world is now understanding that the Russian military is a joke.

A lot of dead Ukrainians don't think so.

[Parkbandit]

A lot of dead Ukrainians don't think so.

The 2nd (or maybe 3rd depending on who you ask) most powerful military on the planet is going up against the 22nd/23rd? It's a real David vs. Goliath story.. and no one thought Russia would have this many problems taking over Ukraine.

This move hasn't helped Russian at all.

But what is the end game? They can't just leave and say "gg Ukraine" because they would be far worse off than they were before. So they have to stick it out and take over Ukraine and then negotiate their way back to "normal."

This is going to get worse for Ukraine and Russia and there's no winners here.

[Solkern]

The 2nd (or maybe 3rd depending on who you ask) most powerful military on the planet is going up against the 22nd/23rd? It's a real David vs. Goliath story.. and no one thought Russia would have this many problems taking over Ukraine.

This move hasn't helped Russian at all.

But what is the end game? They can't just leave and say "gg Ukraine" because they would be far worse off than they were before. So they have to stick it out and take over Ukraine and then negotiate their way back to "normal."

This is going to get worse for Ukraine and Russia and there's no winners here.

That’s exactly what I meant. Russia being the 2nd/3rd supposedly most powerful military in the world, going up against Ukraine, with launch points that pretty much encircled the country and had Belarus also helping, is failing so badly compared to how they should have done.

[Archigeek]

The 2nd (or maybe 3rd depending on who you ask) most powerful military on the planet is going up against the 22nd/23rd? It's a real David vs. Goliath story.. and no one thought Russia would have this many problems taking over Ukraine.

This move hasn't helped Russian at all.

But what is the end game? They can't just leave and say "gg Ukraine" because they would be far worse off than they were before. So they have to stick it out and take over Ukraine and then negotiate their way back to "normal."

This is going to get worse for Ukraine and Russia and there's no winners here.

Have to largely agree. There aren't a lot of options here, but there are some long shot options.

Most likely scenario: What PB just described. Putin, to save face, has to grind Ukraine into dust.

Long shots:

1. It's such a SNAFU that the Russians turn on Putin enough to drive him from power and they back out of Ukraine, "sorry!"

2. To avoid the most likely scenario above, Ukraine and Russia negotiate a deal that allows Russia to save face, and Putin claims it was all he ever wanted, and he was just protecting Ukrainians the whole time. This might actually be as likely as the "most likely scenario" above.

3. Putin uses a Nuke. He won't do this on Ukraine, because he'd basically be nuking his own country. This would be insanity. His propoganda game is believable at home, but there's no way he can convince the rest of the world that he's the victim here and had to do it.

4. The Ukrainians actually beat the Russians. This would lead to one of the above.

[Parkbandit]

Have to largely agree. There aren't a lot of options here, but there are some long shot options.

Agreeing with me should be automatic at this point.

Most likely scenario: What PB just described. Putin, to save face, has to grind Ukraine into dust.

I don't see the end game here for either country though.. the sanctions that the world put in place are going to eventually hurt more and more the longer they continue.

1. It's such a SNAFU that the Russians turn on Putin enough to drive him from power and they back out of Ukraine, "sorry!"

Maybe. This is probably the best case scenario for everyone but Putin. Oligarchs need to put Putin under arrest, remove him from power and send him packing (or worse.. kill him) and go back to prior to the invasion. Sanctions will be lifted and Russia needs to pay Ukraine for the destruction they caused.

2. To avoid the most likely scenario above, Ukraine and Russia negotiate a deal that allows Russia to save face, and Putin claims it was all he ever wanted, and he was just protecting Ukrainians the whole time. This might actually be as likely as the "most likely scenario" above.

Maybe. Maybe give that sliver of land that is under dispute to Russia.. but in order to get the sanctions lifted, Russia will have to pay Ukraine for the cost of the invasion. Not sure Putin's ego will even consider this though.

3. Putin uses a Nuke. He won't do this on Ukraine, because he'd basically be nuking his own country. This would be insanity. His propoganda game is believable at home, but there's no way he can convince the rest of the world that he's the victim here and had to do it.

This won't happen. Putin isn't a madman with no choices at this point.. and even if he was, who's going to turn the key to launch? Nukes are bluffs at this point... no sane leader is going to use them.

4. The Ukrainians actually beat the Russians. This would lead to one of the above.

This won't happen. Eventually the Russians take Ukraine.

[Gelston]

I’ve always said the Russian military was hugely overrated. Most of them are armed like the troops you see in the original Red Dawn. Sure, they have some high tech shit, but not enough for the vast majority of their forces. China isn’t going to be a lot different.

[Stanley Burrell]

I’ve always said the Russian military was hugely overrated. Most of them are armed like the troops you see in the original Red Dawn. Sure, they have some high tech shit, but not enough for the vast majority of their forces. China isn’t going to be a lot different.

It was nice of Russia to wait until the Winter Olympics were finished being televised for them (Russkies) to do shit. Putin did have to act on his word though, or he wouldn't be taken seriously.

The military tactic reminds me a little bit of how our Rangers fire the first shots … and then bomb and howitzer the shit out of everything. I never really understood that. It would make more sense with spy games where you have operatives relaying target information. Anyway, my first reaction was, "Why does Putin even need put boots on the ground?" I dunno.