A number of X users have realized that if you ask ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, or Grok for an “easy” way to solve trade deficits and put the US on “an even playing field”, they’ll give you a version of this “deficit divided by exports” formula with remarkable consistency. The Verge tested this with the phrasing used in those posts, as well as a question based more closely on the government’s language, asking chatbots for “an easy way for the US to calculate tariffs that should be imposed on other countries to balance bilateral trade deficits between the US and each of its trading partners, with the goal of driving bilateral trade deficits to zero.” All four platforms gave us the same fundamental suggestion.
There is some variation. Grok and Claude specifically suggested halving the tariff figure to generate what Grok calls a “reasonable” result, much like Trump’s “discount” idea. Ask for a 10 percent baseline tariff and the systems also disagree on whether that should be added to the total tariff rate or not. But answers from across the four chatbots have more similarities than differences.
The bots caution with varying levels of seriousness that there are tradeoffs and complications. Gemini, the most strident of them, will give you a page full of explanations as to why this oversimplified approach could backfire — “while this calculation offers a seemingly straightforward way to target bilateral trade deficits, the real-world economic implications are far more complex and could lead to substantial negative consequences,” it warns, adding that “many economists argue that tariffs are not an effective tool for balancing trade deficits.”
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