
Originally Posted by
Gelston
Less than 1400 polled in your quoted link and under 600 in the other.
That's a pretty serious objection! Let's see how reliable polls with that sample size are.
The most recent election was actually two elections, Senate run-offs in the great state of Georgia.
In 538's database the most recent poll with "less than 1400" was a 1250 piece from Fabrizio Ward that predicted Warnock +1 (he actually won by 2) and Ossoff +1 (right on the money).
The most recent poll with "under 600" was a 578 piece from Mellman Group that predicted ties in each.
Now, it's fair to say that both cases slightly underrated the Reverend but when we're talking about 66% obviously 1% or 2% doesn't really matter, and even when we're talking 50% when the error goes the other way (those shy Democrats at it again) it doesn't seriously change the assessment, right?
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