2016 Election Prediction Thread

[Wrathbringer]

waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Please, keep posting.

[Stolis]

Since I'm just enjoying this too much, I'll enjoy this as well. My first negative rep

"Stressing the "HUSSEIN!" to imply Muslim status is so laughably ridiculous. -Warriorbird"

Did I stress the Hussein anywhere? No? I just gave his initials like I did for GWB because that's what his initials? Oh, ok then. Have a magical day.

[Fallen]

Some questions I have and haven't researched heavily.

1. The Supreme Court. Are most on Trump's list of the Scalia variety, or are there some that could be considered more moderate? What is the Democrat's ability to influence the process?

2. Executive orders. What EOs is Trump expected to pass in the first few days? Can he effectively deconstruct Obamacare without making use of Congress? If so, what would be left in its place?

3. Trade deals and mergers. Can Trump pull us out of NAFTA and similar established trade deals without the approval of Congress? Can Trump block mergers like ATT/Time Warner directly, or by appointing people to positions who will?

4. Military/Environmental Agreements. What is Trump's direct power over NATO? Will he have time/authority to pull out of the Paris agreement before it goes into effect? Can he change existing agreements of either sort without the authorization of Congress?

[~Rocktar~]

Full control isn't a guarantee of action or radical change. Just look what didn't happen in the Liberal/Democrat controlled 20 months. You boneheads could not even pass a budget and you passed a health care tax/law/enslavement that was so bad even the writers said they were hoping the people were stupid enough to not read it in order to get it passed. Remember the famous contradiction of "I will have the most transparent administration ever" and "You will have to pass it to see what's in it"?

And I can hear your retort about people liking Progressive ideas and that is true, until you add in the cost to them for the idea. Had you told people their health care in general would get more expensive at a rate faster than inflation along with substantial premium increases across the board to get Obamacare, I am pretty sure that it would not have passed. Keep in mind that it STILL hasn't been fully implemented because Obama illegally waived and refused to implement the full penalties and taxes.

Someone is insane in this equation alright and it's you Liberals/Progressives/Socialists.

[Stumplicker]

I'd love for you to be right, but you're assuming a lot here. The GOP controls two of the three branches of government, and they have already made their intent clear. It's asking a lot of someone to say "Oh don't worry about it, I doubt anything will happen."

I get that for you this is an interesting academic discussion. The consequences if you're wrong don't fall on your shoulders- they fall on me and my family. (And a lot of others) My family isn't math. We're not a fraction or a probability. My brothers are people. They've got a lot to lose and people promising that they'll lose it. The fact that there is a credible risk here means they've already lost some of it.

You look at some of the gross, soulless responses to my family's situation. And yeah, we know that some of these people here are just genuinely bad people. But there's a whole country of them out there- many of whom want these things to happen. And even more who don't really care either way and will just let them happen. (And have)

Anyone in our situation would worry. We'd be insane not to.

You're also assuming a lot of things. It's not an entirely academic debate for me. My daughter is a mixed race. Two of my cousins are homosexual. A few of my good friends and former colleagues of mine are immigrants, from back in the mid 70s all the way up to the early 2000s.

That said, yes, the GOP does have a large, nearly unprecedented amount of control right now, but "The GOP" is not solely comprised of Mike Pence clones. There are a wide range of conservative viewpoints, and to varying degrees. If hypothetically, Trump died tomorrow, Pence became President, and immediately put to a vote a law that would make it illegal to be gay, and offenders would all be rounded up and put into re-education camps, I am confident it's not something that would pass. Republican representatives are people. Some of them have the same views as Pence, but enough of them are fiscal conservatives rather than religious conservatives, or are not demonic entities bent on the eradication of a group of people, or just have a different viewpoint on how to deal with the situation.

Am I afraid that Pence could do some damage with his views and level of Republican power if he were to take the big seat? Absolutely. He would stand to be able to undo a lot of the progress we've made over the last 50 years. But to lump every Republican into that a very narrow viewpoint of proponents of the worst possible scenario would be a mistake. Conservative is not Conservative. There are a lot of different viewpoints within any given political party.

[Parkbandit]

There's a broad belief that Pence will be running domestic policy/the country because of the VP offer made to Kasich. That contributes to peoples' belief that Pence will erode gay rights and be Trump's tool to dismantle abortion.

I tend to think Trump won't let that much go to his Vice President but who knows?

Trump doesn't seem like the sort of person to let someone else dictate anything to him.

And Trump was a blue blooded liberal what.. like 5 years ago?

Come on man.. there is so much bigger things to be afraid of.

[time4fun]

All ribbing aside, I would recommend you start the process for your brother. Better late than never. Does your family also live in CA? If so, I think you are making a mountain out of a mole hill regarding the LGBTQ. Either way, I hope you can figure out something so that your family can stay here legally.

We've been through it twice. Once when I was younger- too young to know. My piece of shit step dad needed to sign the paperwork- which he did for my sisters. But he just couldn't really get around to it because he's a horrible person.

My mother and my brother tried a second time when Jopet was an adult, but- at the time at least- he was told that in order to start the process he had to leave the country and live in the Philippines to wait for the paperwork to process and then enter the country legally. It can take years for that. I don't know a lot of the details around it. Maybe it was because they had started once before and never finished? Maybe he's been arrested and isn't telling me? My family gets really vague when I've asked. Honestly, they didn't even tell me he was here illegally until after college. For obvious reasons, they try not to talk about it too openly. My family is from Arizona, which doesn't help.

I've offered a few times to start it back up, but he doesn't want to have to leave for a few years to live in a country he doesn't know anything about. He's in denial, but I can tell he's freaking out inside. I'm going to call some attorneys to try to see if anything has changed since he tried to get his green card a few years back.

It's just a really bad situation. Have I mentioned that he has Type II Diabetes and is on Obamacare? I haven't even gotten to the point where I can process that yet. Though at least in that case, I can pay for his insurance. I'm not sure what we would do if he were deported.

I feel so useless.

[Parkbandit]

I'd love for you to be right, but you're assuming a lot here. The GOP controls two of the three branches of government, and they have already made their intent clear. It's asking a lot of someone to say "Oh don't worry about it, I doubt anything will happen."

I get that for you this is an interesting academic discussion. The consequences if you're wrong don't fall on your shoulders- they fall on me and my family. (And a lot of others) My family isn't math. We're not a fraction or a probability. My brothers are people. They've got a lot to lose and people promising that they'll lose it. The fact that there is a credible risk here means they've already lost some of it.

You look at some of the gross, soulless responses to my family's situation. And yeah, we know that some of these people here are just genuinely bad people. But there's a whole country of them out there- many of whom want these things to happen. And even more who don't really care either way and will just let them happen. (And have)

Anyone in our situation would worry. We'd be insane not to.

Can't you take responsibility for anything at all?

Who put you into this position? YOU DID! You broke the law and now when someone gets elected and runs on enforcing those laws, you cry victim.

He's been here most of his life.. and now you decide you have a problem?

It's not like you suddenly realize today that you've been breaking the law. This could have been taken care of years ago.. but because you are a selfish/lazy/willfully ignorant big sister.. now it's become a problem?

Sorry if I can't possibly feel badly for you for the position you put yourself into.

[Warriorbird]

Trump doesn't seem like the sort of person to let someone else dictate anything to him.

And Trump was a blue blooded liberal what.. like 5 years ago?

Come on man.. there is so much bigger things to be afraid of.

I'm just conveying the flavor of other people's freakout. Me, there's other things on my mind.

[time4fun]

You're also assuming a lot of things. It's not an entirely academic debate for me. My daughter is a mixed race. Two of my cousins are homosexual. A few of my good friends and former colleagues of mine are immigrants, from back in the mid 70s all the way up to the early 2000s.

That said, yes, the GOP does have a large, nearly unprecedented amount of control right now, but "The GOP" is not solely comprised of Mike Pence clones. There are a wide range of conservative viewpoints, and to varying degrees. If hypothetically, Trump died tomorrow, Pence became President, and immediately put to a vote a law that would make it illegal to be gay, and offenders would all be rounded up and put into re-education camps, I am confident it's not something that would pass. Republican representatives are people. Some of them have the same views as Pence, but enough of them are fiscal conservatives rather than religious conservatives, or are not demonic entities bent on the eradication of a group of people, or just have a different viewpoint on how to deal with the situation.

Am I afraid that Pence could do some damage with his views and level of Republican power if he were to take the big seat? Absolutely. He would stand to be able to undo a lot of the progress we've made over the last 50 years. But to lump every Republican into that a very narrow viewpoint of proponents of the worst possible scenario would be a mistake. Conservative is not Conservative. There are a lot of different viewpoints within any given political party.

I wonder if you would have felt differently if your daughter were lesbian. Maybe yes, maybe no. Maybe it was easy to take risks with your cousin's lives. And maybe it would be just as easy to take risks with your daughter's. I don't know.

I just know that I wouldn't take those risks with my brothers' lives. I can't imagine looking them in the eye and saying "I'm going to do something that only has a 1/8 chance of ruining your life, so I don't want you to worry." I can't imagine sleeping soundly, feeling reassured by that. At some point I'm going to have to though, right?

You say that these things won't pass, but Pence has made a career out of passing them. They don't need a unanimous vote to make these things happen. And there are quite a few things that can be done via executive order.

And even if nothing ever happens- my family is going to live in fear of it for at least the next four years. My brother shouldn't have to live that way. I'm glad you and your daughter don't have to worry about it. And I'm glad you don't have to worry that she'll be forced to leave her home and live in a place she barely knows. But my family does have to worry about those things.

And it's not like we get to live our lives joyously up until the moment that some of these horrible things- that again Trump and Pence have promised to do, repeatedly- happen. It's not like life is just wonderful with this hanging over your head.

Saying "Oh I'm sure when Trump said he'd forcibly deport all illegal immigrants he didn't mean it", or "Oh, yeah Pence fought to make sure people had the right to discrimination against gay people and is saying he wants it to be a national law, but honestly, what're the odds?" doesn't make life better. It doesn't make my family feel safe. It kinda just make the person who is saying it feel better.