Trump is going to win Nevada. The police union is with him, the biggest newspaper endorsed him, and there are huge amounts of rural population in Nevada. Latest polling showing him up outside the margin of error.
Junior Member
Trump is going to win Nevada. The police union is with him, the biggest newspaper endorsed him, and there are huge amounts of rural population in Nevada. Latest polling showing him up outside the margin of error.
Senior Member
It's definitely possible, but early voting data in Nevada looks really bad for Trump. Nevada is one of the few states where early voting numbers usually predict the outcome.Originally Posted by Pneumothorax
And if that's still the case, Trump just lost. Even if she loses NH, NV would put her at 272.
Last edited by time4fun; 11-05-2016 at 10:03 AM.
Wouldn't be the first time you were categorically incorrect about something in this folder.
Hasta pronto, porque la vida no termina aqui...
America, stop pushing. I know what I'm doing.
Wouldn't be the first time you were categorically incorrect about something in this folder.
Senior Member
I understand your skepticism. But it's true! Like Donald Trump, I am mainly concerned about other people. Why else would he be running for office? He wants to help all the little people by deporting the Mexicans, cutting taxes on the wealthy, outlawing abortion and homosexual marriage, and banning Muslims.
Senior Member
If trump campaigned on these issues he'd win. Oh wait...
Senior Member
Early Voting Updates:
CO: Dems holding a slim lead in early voting still. In 2012, GOP had a 2-3% lead in early voting, and Dems won the state. So far, CO looking safely in the Clinton camp
NV: Dems still holding on to an almost 14 point lead in early voting- larger than the 7 point lead they had in early voting in 2012 (NV's early voting numbers tend to be an accurate reflection of the final vote tally). Trump's presidential ambitions probably just died here.
FL: Dems holding on to a VERY slim lead in early voting (like 7k votes), but they had a 3 point advantage in 2012. Having said that, there are two days left of in-person early voting, which tends to overwhelmingly favor Democrats in Fl. If after those two days, Dems haven't outpaced Republicans by at least a few points, Florida is probably a lost cause for clinton. Trump seems ever so slightly favored at this point, especially given this is probably the only state where his ground game comes close to matching hers.
NC: NC Election Commission just released the numbers- it was a record turnout. 44%. Dems have a 10 point lead, which seems impressive, but they had a 16 point advantage in 2012 and still lost the state by about 2 points. Having said that, there are a lot of unaffiliated people, and the record turnout seems to be driven by a big increase in low-propensity voters (who tend to favor Clinton). Jury is out, but if I were Clinton I'd be disappointed. She doesn't need NC, but winning it would completely shut down Trump and also would be important for the Senate majority.
TX: Largest voter turnout ever for early voting- particularly in Democratic strongholds. Having said that...it's Texas.
OH: Having a hard time to get latest numbers on this, but overall the turnout for dems has been lower than in 2012 by quite a bit. In 2012 they had a 6 point edge, so this is probably Trump's.
Last edited by time4fun; 11-05-2016 at 04:28 PM.
Passive aggressive use of smiley faces is lame.Wouldn't be the first time you were categorically incorrect about something in this folder.
We must not confuse dissent with disloyalty. We must remember always that accusation is not proof and that conviction depends upon evidence and due process of law. We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven by fear into an age of unreason, if we dig deep in our history and our doctrine, and remember that we are not descended from fearful men. Edward R. Murrow
Black Mamba
Waiting until less than 3 days before the election before posting your prediction isn't really a prediction. You're just playing it safe and safe is boring.
Banned
Dems needed a larger gap in early voting and a far bigger turnout. I feel that this is going to be a surprise landsludish win for Trump. I would use new voting registrants as the primary indicator.
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