How will the market react to downgrade?

[Parkbandit]

I'm assuming you're talking about ETFs, and not the actual metal itself and/or mining companies?

ETFs and actual metal holdings.

[WRoss]

What metals are you invested in PB?

[Cephalopod]

Still thinking we'll be close to even for the week.

LOL @ bond markets, reinforcing how irrelevant S&P just proved themselves.

[Insodus]

Survey says:

Brute, Insodus, Kithus, Kuyuk, Parkbandit, RojoDisco, Seizer, Smythe, Thickbeard, Tolwynn, Tsk Tsk, ~Rocktar~ and I'll even give credit to WRoss

-635 points or 5.6%

Woot, I guessed right!

Wait... oh fuck... but my net worth just dropped 3%.... DOH

[Kembal]

Were I agree with PB on this, and I don't, I would say the critical point comes when our total debt passes our annual GDP which it will by the end of the year if it hasn't already. Unfortunately it does not change the fact that a period of economic downturn is not the time to reduce the deficit.

Even that isn't a good metric. If we have another recession and GDP gets smaller, that suddenly doesn't make the debt untenable and thus cut gov't spending. It means we should grow GDP. (and yes, that means increasing gov't spending.)

[Parkbandit]

Even that isn't a good metric. If we have another recession and GDP gets smaller, that suddenly doesn't make the debt untenable and thus cut gov't spending. It means we should grow GDP. (and yes, that means increasing gov't spending.)

It's worked so well so far..

[Kembal]

Well... we tried increasing the deficit during an economic downturn and employment went over 8%. So lets try the opposite now. I mean, the keynesians have had their turn, it didn't work. Let someone else have a shot.

Economics isn't a set of binary choices, if one fails, try the other one. Magnitudes matter.

You may want to look at the new revised GDP numbers from the recession. It was a much bigger hole than was originally thought, and in light of that, unemployment at 9% is a lot better than what could have been. However, it also says a $800B stimulus wasn't going to be enough. I'm not sure $1T would've been enough....probably $1.5T would've been needed.

[Parkbandit]

What metals are you invested in PB?

Gold and silver for actual holdings.

[Parkbandit]

Economics isn't a set of binary choices, if one fails, try the other one. Magnitudes matter.

You may want to look at the new revised GDP numbers from the recession. It was a much bigger hole than was originally thought, and in light of that, unemployment at 9% is a lot better than what could have been. However, it also says a $800B stimulus wasn't going to be enough. I'm not sure $1T would've been enough....probably $1.5T would've been needed.

So, your belief is that if we did a 2 trillion dollar stimulus bill back in '09.. we would have been out of this problem by now? We "only" went with 800 billion and that was part of the issue?

So... 800 billion gave us 10% unemployment.. if we did nothing, we would have had 8% unemployment.... what would 2 trillion dollars give?

[Warriorbird]

if we did nothing

Hmm.