New coronavirus cases have been dropping for the past week - thanks to the public appeals of Dr. Walensky and others, we've turned around the fourth surge. This is good! Deaths remain at a 200k+ annual pace but as they continue to catch up with cases that number will continue to decline. This is also good! Another number that's dropping is
coronavirus vaccinations. This is extremely not good:
We're currently seeing a linear decline, which if it continues means we'll top out at
52% of the sixteen and older population vaccinated.
But it will switch pretty soon to an exponential decline as was seen in Israel, which on this track means we'll reach
63% of the sixteen and older population vaccinated.
Notably, both of those numbers are in the
55%-65% range polling has indicated since the beginning.
The issue is that even if we vaccinate 100% of the younger population, we need 60% of that older population vaccinated to reach the herd immunity target of
70% overall.
Currently of course we have vaccinated 0% of the younger population, but even after the vaccine is approved for them we will definitely fall short of 100%.
So we definitely need more than 60% of the older population vaccinated, preferably a lot more.
And the way we're going we just aren't going to get there.
.
There is a silver lining to our latest self-inflicted dark cloud: even with Israel basically having finished its vaccination of the sixteen and older population and only reaching
60% overall vaccination, they've brought their coronavirus cases to a level that prorated per capita would mean 30,000 annual coronavirus deaths in America. This means that even in our worst case scenario of 52% sixteen and older population vaccinated, it would still be technically possible with
98% vaccination of the younger to reach that level of herd quasi-immunity.
But we don't have to accept 30,000 annual coronavirus deaths.
We don't have to accept 3,000 annual coronavirus deaths.
We don't have to accept 3 annual coronavirus deaths.
Measles is far more contagious than coronavirus, and we haven't had a measles death in America in five years. Not one.
If even a moderately increased percentage of us got the vaccine our nation would enjoy the same invulnerability to the coronavirus.
.
Every shot counts.
Every person counts.
We can end this, once and for all.