Ruth Bader Ginsburg died

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

46 more days of this. I can almost hear the liberals yelling at the sky outside.

[Parkbandit]

There are a few things in motion right now, and for some of them it's pretty clear where things are headed while for others it's wild cards.


Dems will be fired up. Republicans will be fired up. Independents will likely start breaking for Democrats as they don't like it when one party has too much power.
This will fire up Democrats, but candidly this tends to be motivating to the group that's already definitely going to vote no matter what. This will fire up Trump supporters, and that will matter. It will grab him a few points from Evangelicals who had started to soften a bit on him. Independents in the US genuinely dislike when one party appears to have too much power, and they tend to break heavily for the other party in those cases, and it's very likely that we'll see that play out here. But these groups don't show up in equal proportions around the country, so it's really unclear what the overall thrust of this will be.

Collins and Gardener went from almost assuredly toast to the walking dead.
As far as the Senate goes, Collins and Gardener just saw their slim chances of holding on evaporate. Regardless, they'll want to try to hold on so they won't be voting to push a nomination process forward before the election. McConnell won't try anyway.

McSally is probably still going to lose (and that really matters)
If McSally were anyone other than herself, this would likely mean that she would coast to re-election. But she's not, and Kelly has a huge lead right now. She only has a GOP defection rate of about 5-6%, which isn't much to work with here, and she's getting slaughtered with independents already- who are likely to be even more skeptical of her after this. But it's AZ, so you never know for sure.

Tillis should thank his lucky stars
Tillis likely just got the hail mary he's been praying for. At minimum, this will likely take his race from most likely out of the running to legitimately neck and neck. He was missing about 20% of the GOP vote in North Carolina. They'll likely find their way back home after this.

Kelly may throw a massive wrench into everything for McConnell if he wins
Arizona is the single most important race, however. If Kelly wins he can be sworn into the Senate as early as Nov 30th since he would be replacing McCain's replacement. It would be his job to carry out the rest of McCain's term. At that point in time, the Senate is at a 52-48 split. Murkowski and Collins are not likely to vote for anyone Trump nominates this time. Collins will be on her way out and likely won't want this to be her legacy. And Murkowski has enough cover with the Garland situation. That puts the votes 50-50.

Cory Gardener may be the next John McCain...or just the next Collins.
At that point in time, you just need one Cory Gardener- who loathes Donald Trump and who will be on his way out the door- to decide if he wants to vote his party or his conscience.

McConnell almost assuredly retains his position next year now.

Andraste, you should be the absolute last person to make political predictions about anything.. except maybe if the groundhog sees his shadow (only because that's 50/50).

You're bad at it and you are rarely ever right.

[time4fun]

And yet it's astounding that he is literally hoping for another Justice to come in and completely disregard Stare Decisis- because he thinks THAT'S the opposite of an "activist Court".

[Stolis]

People already clamoring about who is gonna fill her seat like people fighting for inheritance. Maybe calm down for a bit. Cancer has yet again taken the life of someone who had a family, who had children, etc. That sucks.

[time4fun]

In fairness- she had one dying wish.

And it centered around filling her seat.

I think it's okay to talk about that.

[beldannon5]

I haven't checked but was that in writing? or from her own lips not hearsey?

[SonoftheNorth]

I haven't checked but was that in writing? or from her own lips not hearsey?

Who gives a shit that isn't how it works.

[Blazar]

I haven't checked but was that in writing? or from her own lips not hearsey?

LOL, one of the rabid Trump supporters now cares about truth? Say it ain't so.

As NPR reported, Ginsburg’s final statement, dictated to her granddaughter Clara Spera from her deathbed, was simply: “My most fervent wish is that I will not be replaced until a new president is installed.”

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...ying-wish.html

[Taernath]

And remember how mad you were?

Not really, no. I think this is the only time I've mentioned it, aside from a few jokes in a Scalia topic years ago. I'm a little irritated at the hypocrisy on display here, but that's nothing new. If you want to drop the 'lol you mad' psychic vampire LARP we can have an actual discussion.

I would think you would be 100% for President Trump to nominate someone...

He can always nominate someone. I just want the legislative body that we elected and paid for to actually do their jobs, and not come up with ex post facto reasons to obstruct. And I DO remember making that abundantly clear during the Kavanaugh hearings.

[time4fun]

I haven't checked but was that in writing? or from her own lips not hearsey?

It was dictated to her grand daughter. If McConnell honored her dying wish, he could keep from tearing this country apart.

But he won't do that. And a lifetime of public service and inspiring generations of young women to shatter the glass ceiling is going to be desecrated.

And it really will tear us apart.