To 2017 and Beyond!

[ClydeR]

If Donald Trump is elected president and Republicans hold onto Congress, House Speaker Paul Ryan is bluntly promising to ram a partisan agenda through Capitol Hill next year, with Obamacare repeal and trillion-dollar tax cuts likely at the top of the list. And Democrats would be utterly defenseless to stop them.

Typically, party leaders offer at least the pretense of seeking bipartisanship when discussing their policy plans. But Ryan is saying frankly that Republicans would use budget reconciliation — a powerful procedural tool — to bypass Democrats entirely. It’s the same tool Republicans slammed Democrats for using to pass the 2010 health care law over their objections.

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Trump and Ryan are campaigning together on Saturday. If Trump wins, then Republicans will certainly retain control of both houses of Congress.

[time4fun]

Trump and Ryan are campaigning together on Saturday. If Trump wins, then Republicans will certainly retain control of both houses of Congress.

At this point, that's the least likely scenario. The most likely scenario is the Dems get the executive branch, the Senate, and the Judiciary. The next most likely scenario is Dems get the executive, but the GOP keeps the Senate, and the Judiciary ends up a toss up.

[Parkbandit]

At this point, that's the least likely scenario. The most likely scenario is the Dems get the executive branch, the Senate, and the Judiciary. The next most likely scenario is Dems get the executive, but the GOP keeps the Senate, and the Judiciary ends up a toss up.

[time4fun]

Someone's been busy unskewing polls apparently.

[Parkbandit]

Someone's been busy unskewing polls apparently.

Confusion seems to be your best friend.

[time4fun]

Confusion seems to be your best friend.

Uh huh.

[Methais]

At this point, that's the least likely scenario. The most likely scenario is the Dems get the executive branch, the Senate, and the Judiciary. The next most likely scenario is Dems get the executive, but the GOP keeps the Senate, and the Judiciary ends up a toss up.

[Kembal]

At this point, that's the least likely scenario. The most likely scenario is the Dems get the executive branch, the Senate, and the Judiciary. The next most likely scenario is Dems get the executive, but the GOP keeps the Senate, and the Judiciary ends up a toss up.

No point in making assertions now about this or that outcome. Prediction thread goes up after the third debate for Electoral College (predict each state and final EC vote count) and Senate (final makeup, not outcome of each state).

PB, you remember which site we used for the Electoral College maps last time? Those were pretty good maps.

[time4fun]

No point in making assertions now about this or that outcome. Prediction thread goes up after the third debate for Electoral College (predict each state and final EC vote count) and Senate (final makeup, not outcome of each state).

PB, you remember which site we used for the Electoral College maps last time? Those were pretty good maps.

Erm we're a month away from the election. We're in safe prediction territory. As long as you modify with "most likely scenario" as opposed to "this will happen".

And you're looking for Nate Silver, I believe.

Clinton is at 75.1% right now, up 4% on average nationally. In order for Trump to win, he has to win: Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, and Iowa. AND he has to flip another blue state- his best options being Colorado and PA (neither of which have gone red for a very, very long time). She's currently up an average of 4% in CO and almost 5% on average in PA. (recently polling is much stronger than that in PA).

Currently, Clinton is favored in Florida, North Carolina (barely), and Nevada. Trump would need to move some serious mountains in the next month, and the rest of the week's news cycle is likely to be about the Hurricane- which robs him of that time to turn things around.

Senate forecast is 57.2% (Polls Plus- which is his most accurate model). If Clinton wins, Dems need to flip 4 seats (and not lose one of theirs). Things are definitely tightening on the Senate front, but the latest flips:

R ---> D (averages)
New Hampshire: Dem is up .3% (super close)
PA: Dem is up .7% (super close)
Indiana: Dem is up 2.6%
Ill: Dem is up over 8%
Wisconsin: Dem is up 9.5%

So 3 seats look like they're going to flip no matter what. Could be as many as 5 (will depend on Clinton's trajectory)

D ---> R (averages)
Nevada: GOP is up 1.3%


And NC is up only 1.3% (so it could be flipped)

The thing about Nevada and NC is that they're both moving towards Clinton and away from Trump, so they are very much still in play. Same with New Hampshire. So if Clinton keeps rising, there is a good chance they'll flip.


So, yes. Order of likelihood:

1) Clinton is President, Dems get the Senate, and in the next two years they get a judge confirmed (and liberals have the Court back)
2) Clinton is President, GOP keeps the Senate, and a moderate ends up on the Court (so no one has it)
3) Trump is President, GOP keeps the Senate, and a conservative ends up on the Court (and conservatives keep the Court)

[Tgo01]

AND he has to flip another blue state- his best options being Colorado and PA (neither of which have gone red for a very, very long time).

Sure, if you ignore the fact that Bush won Colorado both times, and Dole won Colorado the election before Bush.