Midterm Elections 2014: Predictions

[Parkbandit]

Republicans take Senate: 53 - 47 (including so called "Independents)

Republicans increase lead in Senate: 245 - 190

Interesting Governor races:
Crist wins FL
Walker wins WI
Abbot wins TX
Snyder wins MI

[Androidpk]

I still don't know who is getting my vote. NH candidates suck ass. Tempted to just vote straight republican because the idea of them controlling the senate amuses me.

[Kembal]

I'll have to come up with a House prediction in a bit, beyond the fact that the Republicans will continue to hold the House.

Senate, Dems hold, 51-49

Gov. races:
Crist wins FL
Walker loses in WI
Abbott wins in TX (despite my best efforts)
Dem wins Gov. race in KS, GA and PA
Snyder wins in MI

Edit: House prediction - Republicans hold House, 235-200. (pretty much flat)

[Parkbandit]

Another post election prediction: The Obamacare costs that have been purposely postponed until mid November will be double digits increases.

[Warriorbird]

Republicans take Congress. Republicans fail to take Presidency. Twice.

[Latrinsorm]

I'll have to come up with a House prediction in a bit, beyond the fact that the Republicans will continue to hold the House.

Senate, Dems hold, 51-49

Gov. races:
Crist wins FL
Walker loses in WI
Abbott wins in TX (despite my best efforts)
Dem wins Gov. race in KS, GA and PA
Snyder wins in MI

Edit: House prediction - Republicans hold House, 235-200. (pretty much flat)I would be surprised if Democrats hold the Senate. 538 has it two to one against and trending higher.

[Tgo01]

Another post election prediction: The Obamacare costs that have been purposely postponed until mid November will be double digits increases.

I should have posted the link I read earlier about a state basically fudging the numbers in the premium increases. The state and the news site looked at the exact same figures but the state calculated the results in a way so increases only averaged like a 4% increase but the news site said it was more like an 11% increase.

Obamacare; it works as long as you lie about it.

[Androidpk]

If republicans take the senate are democrats going to be the ones filibusterin, even though they're against it?

[Latrinsorm]

If republicans take the senate are democrats going to be the ones filibusterin, even though they're against it?Who said Democrats were against filibustering?

[Androidpk]

Who said Democrats were against filibustering?

Prominent members of the Democrats Against Filibustering committee.

[Tgo01]

Who said Democrats were against filibustering?

You're so adorable sometimes, Latrin.

Are you available for parties?

[Ker_Thwap]

I still don't know who is getting my vote. NH candidates suck ass. Tempted to just vote straight republican because the idea of them controlling the senate amuses me.

I'd rather have a NH Democrat than a Mass Republican. Shaheen has been harmless in previous terms. Hassan must go. The cute girl seems to be a party stooge without an original idea in her head.

I'm a fan of gridlock where nothing gets changed too much.

[Androidpk]

Yeah, I'm not too keen on Brown, even if we graduated from the same highschool. Leaning towards Shaheen there. Not all that crazy about Garcia either and Kuster seems far more supportive of veterans. Can't stand Hassan. She definitely needs to go. I had high hopes for her, especially because of Lynch, but she has been a huge disappointment.

[Latrinsorm]

You're so adorable sometimes, Latrin.

Are you available for parties?If you want people to watch I gotta charge you extra.

[Parkbandit]

If republicans take the senate are democrats going to be the ones filibusterin, even though they're against it?

Didn't the current Dems do away with filibusters or at least limit them?

I hope Dirty Harry gets everything he has coming to him. Karma is a bitch.

[Androidpk]

Didn't the current Dems do away with filibusters or at least limit them?

I hope Dirty Harry gets everything he has coming to him. Karma is a bitch.

They limited them in regards to some judicial and executive level appointees.

[crb]

Yeah, I'm not too keen on Brown, even if we graduated from the same highschool. Leaning towards Shaheen there. Not all that crazy about Garcia either and Kuster seems far more supportive of veterans. Can't stand Hassan. She definitely needs to go. I had high hopes for her, especially because of Lynch, but she has been a huge disappointment.

My opinion, vote for Brown. Even if you dislike him, if you're like me, you hate abuse of power in the executive branch. There seems to be a lot of corruption in the White House, and yes that may be true for every White House, but the full legislative branch needs to be in control of the opposition party to truly shed light on a lot of these scandals and cover ups. If the GOP takes the WH in 2016, feel free to switch it up and put dems back in control of the senate. Until then I think the best thing for our country for the next two years would be a full republican legislative branch. Imagine Obama actually having to make a decision on all those numerous bipartisan bills that have died on Harry Reid's desk, imagine the full weight of the legislative branch looking into executive misconduct.

[Androidpk]

Harry Reid getting the boot sounds great but getting replaced by McConnell? Meh. Meet the new boss, same as the last boss.

[Androidpk]

My opinion, vote for Brown. Even if you dislike him, if you're like me, you hate abuse of power in the executive branch. There seems to be a lot of corruption in the White House, and yes that may be true for every White House, but the full legislative branch needs to be in control of the opposition party to truly shed light on a lot of these scandals and cover ups. If the GOP takes the WH in 2016, feel free to switch it up and put dems back in control of the senate. Until then I think the best thing for our country for the next two years would be a full republican legislative branch. Imagine Obama actually having to make a decision on all those numerous bipartisan bills that have died on Harry Reid's desk, imagine the full weight of the legislative branch looking into executive misconduct.

I don't exactly envision congress of being the champions of ethics.

[~Rocktar~]

I don't exactly envision congress of being the champions of ethics.

Sure they champion ethics, whenever and wherever they can do so and make political hay. As long as no one is looking too closely at THEIR ethics it's all good for them.



OH, and my predicitons, I think the Republicans will get the House and Senate, the media will howl and America will be somewhat better off once Reid is out of there.

[Parkbandit]

OH, and my predicitons, I think the Republicans will get the House and Senate, the media will howl and America will be somewhat better off once Reid is out of there.

They won't howl.. They will try and give "advice" to the Republicans like "don't rock the boat" "focus on immigration reform" and "don't exclude the Democrats on things because it's not fair!"

[Warriorbird]

They won't howl.. They will try and give "advice" to the Republicans like "don't rock the boat" "focus on immigration reform" and "don't exclude the Democrats on things because it's not fair!"

Quite likely. People miss concern trolling the Republicans.

[Jarvan]

Another post election prediction: The Obamacare costs that have been purposely postponed until mid November will be double digits increases.

A lot of states have already said they will be double digits. In fact, I think Alaska stated they are going to see almost 50% increase.

HHS is just sitting on them because .. I believe one person said.. "It does no good to release them now".

Also, I heard that they sent the figures BACK to the companies and asked them to review them.. until Nov 9th at least.

[Jarvan]

Oh.. my prediction.

Republican's take the Senate, keep the house.

Dems cry foul, and filibuster everything they can.. oh wait. they don't have to. Since Obama refuses to even consider any bill that he doesn't like, so we will here a lot of "I will Veto that".

Dems will accuse Republicans of not allowing them to add things to bills, or not bringing up stuff they want.

Republicans will maybe lose the house in 2016.. but only if it looks like a Republican will win the WH.

~IF~ We see Hilliary in the WH in 2017, she is out on her ass in 2021. America won't put up with 16 years of feckless government.

[Archigeek]

I remember when we did this 2 years ago. I think you're closer to the truth this time PB. A lot of close races though. Also, I don't think Walker will lose Wisconsin, but it's a fairly close race.

[Warriorbird]

Oh.. my prediction.

Republican's take the Senate, keep the house.

Dems cry foul, and filibuster everything they can.. oh wait. they don't have to. Since Obama refuses to even consider any bill that he doesn't like, so we will here a lot of "I will Veto that".

Dems will accuse Republicans of not allowing them to add things to bills, or not bringing up stuff they want.

Republicans will maybe lose the house in 2016.. but only if it looks like a Republican will win the WH.

~IF~ We see Hilliary in the WH in 2017, she is out on her ass in 2021. America won't put up with 16 years of feckless government.

The Republicans will take Congress.

Hillary will hardly be considered "feckless."

2 Democratic Presidential terms ahead.

[crb]

I don't exactly envision congress of being the champions of ethics.

Thats fair, which is why divided government is important, they keep checks on each other.

[Archigeek]

Thats fair, which is why divided government is important, they keep checks on each other.

While we don't agree on much in politics, I would agree with this in principle. Unfortunately our government has gotten so locked up with partisan vitriol that we're well beyond check and balance. I think this is true at the local level still though. I think I have reached the conclusion that the only way for congress to begin to get anything done again is to bring back pork.

[Androidpk]

Less than one day to go!

[zzentar]

This is going to bite the Democrats in the ass in a few months,

After stripping by a majority vote the Republican minority’s ability to filibuster nominees except for those to the Supreme Court in November, Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) sprinkled salt in the GOP’s wound by asking the Senate to unanimously confirm dozens of Obama’s nominees en bloc.

~Zz

[Parkbandit]

Here's my breakdown of the 10 closest Senate races tomorrow:

NH: R
NC: R
GA: R in a runoff
KY: R huge
LA: R
AR: R
KS: I very close
CO: D very close
AK: R
IA: R

[Silvean]

I think Hagan will win in NC. We'll see.

[Androidpk]

I think the democrats are going to come out on top in New Hampshire. Most of the races are pretty close though, with the exception of Kuster/Garcia. Kuster has a pretty sizeable lead.

[Parkbandit]

Damn... that was a historic ass kicking last night.

Better than I could have imagined. I wish Ed Gillespie would have won Virginia.. that would have been awesome.

Sucks that Brown didn't take NH too.

My favorite part was watching MSNBC this morning and they are saying that the new "stringent voter ID laws" could have disenfranchised so many not to vote, giving Abbot the win. LOL.. he won by a million votes.

[Back]

Damn... that was a historic ass kicking last night.

Better than I could have imagined. I wish Ed Gillespie would have won Virginia.. that would have been awesome.

Sucks that Brown didn't take NH too.

My favorite part was watching MSNBC this morning and they are saying that the new "stringent voter ID laws" could have disenfranchised so many not to vote, giving Abbot the win. LOL.. he won by a million votes.

Yeah it was an ass whooping. What do you think will be congress' major accomplishments in the next couple of years?

[Parkbandit]

Yeah it was an ass whooping. What do you think will be congress' major accomplishments in the next couple of years?

If they accomplish anything, it will be better than the last 6.

Remember when you stated that the Republicans aren't even a legitimate party anymore?

Good times...

[Back]

If they accomplish anything, it will be better than the last 6.

Remember when you stated that the Republicans aren't even a legitimate party anymore?

Good times...

Yeah... thats why they rely on voter ID laws and gerrymandering. Please.

[Parkbandit]

Yeah... thats why they rely on voter ID laws and gerrymandering. Please.

LOL... you seriously need to stop watching MSNBC so much. They are destroying whatever you have left of your brain.

Do you even know how Senators are elected in this country?

[Lord Orbstar]

Victory. Now in two years...

Paul Ryan President and Rand Paul Vice President.

It will take a few months for them to clean the smell out of the white house.

[Androidpk]

Victory. Now in two years...

Paul Ryan President and Rand Paul Vice President.

It will take a few months for them to clean the smell out of the white house.

Close but no cigar. Rand Paul has been a juggernaut all year long and I see that trend continuing until the 2016 elections. No way in hell Paul Ryan has a shot at presidency and no way in hell would Rand be his +1.

[Androidpk]

Speaking of Rand, his takedown on Hillary was epic.

Troll Level: Ultimate Champion': Sen. Rand Paul compiles gallery of #HillarysLosers

http://twitchy.com/2014/11/05/troll-level-ultimate-champion-sen-rand-paul-compiles-gallery-of-hillaryslosers/

[Atlanteax]

Better link:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2822125/HillarysLosers-Pressure-Hillary-Clinton-potential-2016-challenger-Rand-Paul-posts-mocking-pictures-campaigning-Democrats-lost-Senate-party.html

[Parkbandit]

Close but no cigar. Rand Paul has been a juggernaut all year long and I see that trend continuing until the 2016 elections. No way in hell Paul Ryan has a shot at presidency and no way in hell would Rand be his +1.

I would actually support a Rand Paul presidency.. but I just don't think enough people will, especially the Republican establishment. My guess: Jeb Bush or Chris Christie.... which would indeed make me irritated.

[Kembal]

Well I got this one wrong. PB wins the prediction thread.

I guess the only joys I get out of this are a) Scott Brown getting beat, which he deserved, and b) watching any GOP politician with even a semblance of presidential ambition start blasting each other in the next few weeks.

[Parkbandit]

Well I got this one wrong. PB wins the prediction thread.

This is the eventual conclusion of most threads. :P



I guess the only joys I get out of this are a) Scott Brown getting beat, which he deserved, and b) watching any GOP politician with even a semblance of presidential ambition start blasting each other in the next few weeks.

Yea.. that is sorta fun, even to me. Equally fun will be the liberal Hillary bashers, begging nuts like Elizabeth "I'm 30th Part American Indian!" Warren to run against Hillary.

[~Rocktar~]

Yea.. that is sorta fun, even to me. Equally fun will be the liberal Hillary bashers, begging nuts like Elizabeth "I'm 30th Part American Indian!" Warren to run against Hillary.

She better be careful, if she clips a large hangnail, she may not qualify anymore.

[Androidpk]

I would actually support a Rand Paul presidency.. but I just don't think enough people will, especially the Republican establishment. My guess: Jeb Bush or Chris Christie.... which would indeed make me irritated.

If you think that then you haven't been paying attention. Many people in the GOP establishment like Paul. He has gotten some pretty strong endorsements from Reince Priebus and Michael Steele as well as being the most requested Republican to stump for GOP candidates in this years election. Pretty much everyone he endorsed won. He even gave a.speech and introduced McConnell at his victory party. His political capital and public popularity has gone through the roof this year.

I could see Jeb being a strong candidate, maybe, but I don't see the public lining up behind another Bush. Christy? No. People in Jersey may like his style but he is far too abrasive.

[Kembal]

Yea.. that is sorta fun, even to me. Equally fun will be the liberal Hillary bashers, begging nuts like Elizabeth "I'm 30th Part American Indian!" Warren to run against Hillary.

I hope she doesn't, because then all those liberal bashers will find out that Warren isn't a liberal on foreign policy. (at least, that's my understanding)

There's going to be at least a few Dem governors taking a shot at the primary. Don't know if any of them can turn into the "great liberal hope".

I am curious about what Biden is going to do. (no I don't think he's the right choice)

[Kembal]

If you think that then you haven't been paying attention. Many people in the GOP establishment like Paul. He has gotten some pretty strong endorsements from Reince Priebus and Michael Steele as well as being the most requested Republican to stump for GOP candidates in this years election. Pretty much everyone he endorsed won. He even gave a.speech and introduced McConnell at his victory party. His political capital and public popularity has gone through the roof this year.

I could see Jeb being a strong candidate, maybe, but I don't see the public lining up behind another Bush. Christy? No. People in Jersey may like his style but he is far too abrasive.

Paul's saying the right things. I don't think the money's going to flow to him though. The invisible primary is dominated by who has the money lined up. Jeb Bush can suck all the oxygen out of it pretty quickly.

[Warriorbird]

I hope she doesn't, because then all those liberal bashers will find out that Warren isn't a liberal on foreign policy. (at least, that's my understanding)

There's going to be at least a few Dem governors taking a shot at the primary. Don't know if any of them can turn into the "great liberal hope".

I am curious about what Biden is going to do. (no I don't think he's the right choice)

Joe Biden is a great American. There's no way he'll get the nomination.

I'd campaign hard for Jim Webb.

[Latrinsorm]

Damn... that was a historic ass kicking last night.

Better than I could have imagined. I wish Ed Gillespie would have won Virginia.. that would have been awesome.

Sucks that Brown didn't take NH too.

My favorite part was watching MSNBC this morning and they are saying that the new "stringent voter ID laws" could have disenfranchised so many not to vote, giving Abbot the win. LOL.. he won by a million votes.Surely you could have imagined a swing on the level of 2006?

[Parkbandit]

One of my favorite parts of Tuesday's results: Wendy Davis lost the female vote to Greg Abbott by 5%. This was blamed on those fucking racist white women.

http://www.texastribune.org/2014/11/04/abbott-crushes-wendy-davis-gop-sweep/

[Androidpk]

One of my favorite parts of Tuesday's results: Wendy Davis lost the female vote to Greg Abbott by 5%. This was blamed on those fucking racist white women.

http://www.texastribune.org/2014/11/04/abbott-crushes-wendy-davis-gop-sweep/

Racist soccer moms are the worst.

[Kembal]

She ran a terrible campaign. But even if she had run a good one, she wouldn't have won. Texas isn't turning blue for a while.

[Androidpk]

No surprise here.

Fresh off a reelection victory, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) suggested he would support a presidential run by Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).
"Whatever he decides to do," McConnell told (http://www.kentucky.com/2014/11/06/3525224/mcconnell-reflects-after-reaching.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter) the Lexington Herald-Leader. "I don't think he's made a final decision on that. But he'll be able to count on me.”

[Parkbandit]

With the Alaska election finally sorted out, looks like the Republicans will hold at least 53 seats in the Senate.

It's not looking good currently for Mary Landrieu.. and that'll make 54.

[Atlanteax]

The GoP has a *mandate* !!!

[Latrinsorm]

The GoP has a *mandate* !!!Historically speaking.. this was not only expected from the 6th year of a President.. it pretty much ran right down the average loss of power from the sitting party.

[Androidpk]

With the Alaska election finally sorted out, looks like the Republicans will hold at least 53 seats in the Senate.

It's not looking good currently for Mary Landrieu.. and that'll make 54.

54 indeed.