ClydeR
08-04-2014, 09:59 PM
It’s a widely accepted idea that Republicans are sitting on a demographic time bomb: The GOP is getting whiter and whiter in terms of the voters it attracts even as the country is growing increasingly diverse.
Marisa Abrajano, an associate professor of political science at the University of California at San Diego, doesn’t dispute that basic notion in a new study of the electorate. But she does suggest that the time bomb may well have a very long fuse — and that in the time before it explodes, Republicans could actually benefit electorally from a consolidation of the white vote.
More... (http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republicans-increasing-reliance-on-white-voters-may-not-spell-electoral-doom-just-yet/2014/08/03/04f0c85c-1b21-11e4-ab7b-696c295ddfd1_story.html)
“Indeed the white population’s growing allegiance to the Republican Party points to a very different short term future — one that might more likely be highlighted by Republican victory than by Democratic dominance.”
The full report (http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2014/07/white-backlash-american-immigration-politics) about possible backlash (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backlash_%28sociology%29) is available on the Brookings website. Two important paragraphs from the report..
But we contend that these changes represent only a small fraction of immigration’s potential impact on American politics. Immigrants may be arriving in historically high numbers but they account for only a relatively small fraction of the nation’s population. Native-born whites still represent 63 percent of the population and, perhaps more importantly, some 75 percent of its voters. Thus, how non-immigrant whites respond to this growing immigrant and Latino population is critical not only to the welfare of current immigrants but also to the future of immigration policy in the US. Acceptance is likely to bring assimilation and rising economic status among immigrants. Fear and resentment is likely to bring increased efforts at border enforcement, more migrant deaths, and strained relations between the nation’s white (and primarily native born) population and its racial and ethnic minority groups.
Even more importantly, if immigration leads to a backlash that not only shapes views on immigration but also alters the basic political orientation of large number of Americans, then the entire direction of American politics hangs in the balance. A broad backlash could lead to increasingly strict and conservative policymaking, shift the balance of power between Democrats and Republicans, and advantage rightward leaning candidates throughout the country. In short, in order to fully understand how broadly immigration is transforming American politics we need to examine the attitudes and actions of the white population.
More (PDF)... (http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2014/07/white-backlash-immigration/abrajano_immigration_v03.pdf)
Marisa Abrajano, an associate professor of political science at the University of California at San Diego, doesn’t dispute that basic notion in a new study of the electorate. But she does suggest that the time bomb may well have a very long fuse — and that in the time before it explodes, Republicans could actually benefit electorally from a consolidation of the white vote.
More... (http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republicans-increasing-reliance-on-white-voters-may-not-spell-electoral-doom-just-yet/2014/08/03/04f0c85c-1b21-11e4-ab7b-696c295ddfd1_story.html)
“Indeed the white population’s growing allegiance to the Republican Party points to a very different short term future — one that might more likely be highlighted by Republican victory than by Democratic dominance.”
The full report (http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2014/07/white-backlash-american-immigration-politics) about possible backlash (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backlash_%28sociology%29) is available on the Brookings website. Two important paragraphs from the report..
But we contend that these changes represent only a small fraction of immigration’s potential impact on American politics. Immigrants may be arriving in historically high numbers but they account for only a relatively small fraction of the nation’s population. Native-born whites still represent 63 percent of the population and, perhaps more importantly, some 75 percent of its voters. Thus, how non-immigrant whites respond to this growing immigrant and Latino population is critical not only to the welfare of current immigrants but also to the future of immigration policy in the US. Acceptance is likely to bring assimilation and rising economic status among immigrants. Fear and resentment is likely to bring increased efforts at border enforcement, more migrant deaths, and strained relations between the nation’s white (and primarily native born) population and its racial and ethnic minority groups.
Even more importantly, if immigration leads to a backlash that not only shapes views on immigration but also alters the basic political orientation of large number of Americans, then the entire direction of American politics hangs in the balance. A broad backlash could lead to increasingly strict and conservative policymaking, shift the balance of power between Democrats and Republicans, and advantage rightward leaning candidates throughout the country. In short, in order to fully understand how broadly immigration is transforming American politics we need to examine the attitudes and actions of the white population.
More (PDF)... (http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2014/07/white-backlash-immigration/abrajano_immigration_v03.pdf)