NBA 2013-2014 Season!!!!! [Archive] - The Gemstone IV Players' Corner

Latrinsorm

10-30-2013, 04:57 PM

Yeah-it's-one-game-BUT!

Bulls starters outscore Heat starters by 4 (69 to 65). Bulls bench outscored by 16 (26 to 42). Even if the Heat get absolutely nothing out of Oden and Beasley (and Rashard Lewis and James Jones and Joel Anthony), they're just too deep for the Bulls, just like they were just too deep for the Pacers last year. Another issue: Derrick Rose is assisted on 1 of 4 made baskets, by Jimmy Butler. Is Butler going to turn into the guy who can get Rose (and everyone else) buckets? If not, it's 2011 all over again.

The Lakers started Shawne Williams at power forward. He played 0 games last year. He played 13 minutes last night, the fewest out of 11 Lakers who played. Do you see how Mike D'Antoni's mind works? It's like a laser.

Indy goes up 10-0 in the first 2:30, then plays the Magic dead-even for the next 45:30. That's kind of odd. The Pacers bench combined for 26 points. Last year the guys outside the regular starters averaged 28.6 (so the actual bench was slightly lower, as various bench guys started 26 player-games). That's not a great sign, Oladipo or no Oladipo. Roy Hibbert with no fouls, 16 rebounds, 7 blocks - awesome! Roy Hibbert with 8 points - somewhat less awesome! Maybe he should get more than 11 touches a game. Just throwing that out there. George Hill - 0 assists. :/

Feeling good!

SHAFT

10-30-2013, 05:02 PM

Obviously the lakers are winning the title after last nights performance.

Latrinsorm

10-30-2013, 05:25 PM

The supposed contenders in the West (Clippers, Spurs, Rockets, Grizzlies, Thunder, Warriors) haven't won a game all season! It's the Lakers' conference to lose!

Atlanteax

10-30-2013, 05:51 PM

Latrinsorm

10-30-2013, 06:53 PM

Kobe's first game back will be the All-Star game itself (with the Lakers having a winning record), and at the end of the season, when Lakers are in the playoffs, even Latrinsorm will be raving how Kobe single-handily carried the team into the playoffs.I fully expect the Lakers to be right around .500 before Kobe comes back. The rest... I guess we'll see. I'm going to keep very good track of how the Lakers are doing with and without Kobe, that's for sure. Also, here's the Lakers post All-Star sched:

losses
Rockets (2)
Pacers
Grizzlies (2)
Clippers (2)
Thunder (2)
Spurs (3)
Warriors
Mavericks

50-50
Kings (2)
Blazers (2)
Pelicans
Nuggets
Wizards
Knicks
Bucks
Timberwolves

Wins
Celtics
Magic
Suns
Jazz

That's a 9-19 finish if you ask me. Last year's 8 seed required 44 wins, that means the Lakers would need to go 36-18 (or be prorated to 55 wins) to get there. Nope.

Drew

10-30-2013, 08:22 PM

Latrin you should make a championship prediction poll thread so we have people on record.

Also, welcome back Derrick Rose:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4CzK59oo70

Latrinsorm

10-30-2013, 09:03 PM

This Philly game was a little awkward to start, but the main thing I was surprised by was James Jones not getting the start. It seemed like he was the designated Wade rest guy two years ago before losing that title to Miller last year. I'm going to be honest, I thought Mason retired after those years with the Spurs, and he's the same age as James Jones. Only have the Gamecast, so maybe Mason is a real defender? No clue.

Latrinsorm

10-30-2013, 10:45 PM

Your standard go down 19-0, score 45 points in the 3rd, watch MCW become the 30th NBA player since 1986 with 9 or more steals in a game, worst beats first matchup. It's so predictable it's almost a cliché. Haslem -12 in 12 minutes... not good. Rashard Lewis sighting! 11, 5, and 1 in 20 minutes, +9, 50% shooting, this guy can still play I'm telling you.

Meanwhile Memphis scores 27 points in a half, including a ONE FOR TWELVE performance from the bench. The only make? Michael Lloyd Miller.

I love the NBA.

Anebriated

10-30-2013, 11:04 PM

suck it heat! MCW 1 steal away from a triple double in his rookie debut. I hope he keeps it up but lets not keep winning games here, we are still a draft pick or two away from where we need to be.

Latrinsorm

11-01-2013, 12:56 PM

I thought we were going to get a respite from these type of stories with Kobe Bryant out, but no:

Bulls rewarded, home fans satiated after missing composed star's clutch shooting (http://espn.go.com/chicago/nba/story/_/id/9910847/chicago-bulls-home-fans-rewarded-missing-derrick-rose-clutch-shooting)
Rose Lifts Bulls Past Knicks (http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=400488891)

First of all, nobody shoots a floater from the baseline, okay? It was a bad shot (let alone against double coverage), and he was lucky it went in. Second of all, Chandler clearly has the go-ahead putback and is clearly fouled by Noah (watch Chandler's left arm and Noah's right arm) clearly before time expires. It makes me crazy that this victory is chalked up to grit and clutch when it was bad playcalling and bad officiating that carried the day... and that's just on the last two plays! I'm sure there were a million other moments that could have gone either way.

And exhibit no. 2 in what is going to be a season-long trend of why no one should take the Bulls seriously as contenders: Mike Dunleavy, 15 MP, 0 pts. Rose putting up 18 pts on 28 touches, 3 assists to 4 turnovers doesn't help either, but you can't win without a bench.

Atlanteax

11-01-2013, 01:13 PM

I thought we were going to get a respite from these type of stories with Kobe Bryant out, but no:

Jackson said his one regret as Golden State's coach is not calling a timeout when Bryant tore his Achilles tendon last season. He said he didn't realize Bryant was that hurt until later. The Lakers intentionally fouled the Warriors to let Bryant come off the floor after he made two free throws. Jackson said he apologized to Bryant between exhibition games in China this preseason. "Typical Kobe. He said, 'Thank you. Appreciate it.' But he said he's coming after us next time he sees us," Jackson said.

For your daily Kobe quota.

Latrinsorm

11-02-2013, 02:34 PM

Yeah-it's-still-early-BUT

I'm not scared of the Nets at all.

-They can't play Garnett and Lopez together on defense, it led to WIDE open 3s for Bosh (from the corner!!!) and Battier from the wing. It's not just a communication issue, Garnett just isn't quick enough to play PF anymore. There was another play where Chalmers blew by him on the perimeter. Mario Chalmers! He's underrated, but he's not that underrated.

-They can't play Blatche on defense. He's just brutal, and not in the Boozer/Amare "I have no idea where to stand at any time" way: he's frequently in the right spot and then stares blankly as guys breeze by for layups. He's skilled on offense but nowhere near as skilled as he thinks he is, especially when it comes to ballhandling. His passing is gorgeous (and this is true for really every Net but Reggie Evans and Alan Anderson) but he has a terrible habit of abruptly stopping the ball and isolating. Paul Pierce yelled at him about it in the first quarter.

-Speaking of stopping the ball, Joe Johnson everybody! It was probably just a timing thing, but it seemed like every time he put the Nets offense on his back immediately followed a brilliant 5 player no dribble passing evisceration. He did score very well out of these, but it's going to kill the Nets' chemistry. It would kill any team's chemistry, and the Nets are trying to run an 11 man rotation where every guy wants to play 25 minutes a night. Joe did hit two key spot-up 3 point looks late, and if he stuck with that and that alone he would be fine... but this is his 13th year. Old dogs and all that.

-Speaking of old dogs, we all know and love how KG goaltends shots after the whistle, putting further stress and injury risk on his knees for really no reason at all. But last night took the cake: after one whistle LeBron attempted a 26 foot bounce shot. There is absolutely no way he could benefit from "seeing the ball go through the hoop" on a friggin' trick shot, but KG goaltends it anyway. Never change, Ticket!

-An interesting option to pair with Lopez in the frontcourt is Kirilenko. He's 6'9" and long, energetic, good FT shooter, mediocre 3 shooter (but not bad for a PF), great passer and cutter. We'll see what Coach Kidd decides to do, but platooning Lopez-Kirilenko and Garnett-Blatche seems like the way to go. Blatche can't guard PFs, but at least you keep him away from the rim where no one expects help and are left wanting.

When it comes playoff time, I see a smart team (the Heat or Pacers) exploiting the Nets' roster problems on defense and offense. There's only so much you can scheme, and at (approx.) $1,500m over the salary cap there doesn't seem like a lot of room for retooling.

Drew

11-02-2013, 03:01 PM

One thing about the Nets is that they are a brand new team. Remember when the Heat had a rough start and all the pundits talked about how it wouldn't work? I'm not very worried about the Nets either but it's hard to judge them based on a handful of games.

Latrinsorm

11-02-2013, 04:02 PM

Yeah but those guys were dumb.

Also, what's up with ESPN's schedule not stating how the Nets home broadcast channel is YES? And also whatever the Raptors' is.

DoctorUnne

11-02-2013, 04:44 PM

Never underestimate the heart of a champion! Would love to see Nets/Heat in the playoffs.

Latrinsorm

11-03-2013, 01:37 PM

The small forward position is really interesting this year. LeBron and Durant are obvious, George and Leonard are the obvious up and comers, Tyreke Evans might finally blossom, but how about Chandler Parsons? Led all players in last night's Rockets-Jazz game in points, rebounds, and assists. Granted: his 6 to 4 ast-tov ratio isn't great, he was playing the Jazz, and he has two top 10 players to draw attention... but still. His per-game averages last year were 15.3, 5.3, and 3.5, which doesn't sound incredible but only 11 other players managed 15/5/3: LeBron, Durant, Westbrook, Kobe, Blake, David Lee, Paul George, Horford, Pierce, Monroe, Josh Smith. Only Paul George in that group made more 3s, which again (and for both) we should point out is a benefit from not being a primary option... but still.

Also, as we saw last night, McHale isn't afraid to slot him in at PF, and last year the team performed better with him there at +7.8 points per 100 possessions compared to merely +1.4 per when he played SF. This might explain why his on/off stats are in the red due to (surprisingly) the Rockets being worse on offense with him on the court: the second most SF minutes were played last year by Carlos Delfino, who is clearly a SG. Thus when Parsons was playing SF the Rockets were playing big (less offense) and when he was playing PF the SF tended (at least 62% of the time) to be Delfino (mucho offense).

Consider that Paul George was in his 3rd year last year, and went from 12.1/5.6/2.4 to 17.4/7.6/4.1. Parsons is going into his 3rd year now and was ahead in his 2nd, if he can get up to say 18/6/5 (3 points, 1 board, 1.5 assists more) it makes the Rockets very dangerous. Last year Bosh only put up 17/7/2 and he was clearly the best third man in the league.

Latrinsorm

11-03-2013, 06:11 PM

Russell Westbrook was supposed to miss the first month of the season. He's back today.

No word on if he spent any time with Kobe Bryant.

Latrinsorm

11-04-2013, 01:27 PM

Nets get blown out - not a big deal in and of itself, because every team gets blown out sooner or later. Even the 72 win Bulls lost by 32 points to the Knicks, the 69 win Bulls lost by 16 to the Lakers and Rockets. Every team gets blown out.

What I think is a big deal is the Nets' struggles on defense. Their aggregate DRtg so far is 107.2, which is poor. Granted, the Heat are an excellent offense, the Cavs are probably pretty good and the Magic (from watching their game last night) are going to be above average. Not only that, but they present a very difficult matchup for the Nets:
-a stretch 4 in Nicholson (didn't stretch to the 3 point line last year, but 37% of his attempts were 16-23 feet)
-tons of off-ball movement and screening (just the thing to hurt a lumbering, old team)
-a legit low post center in Vucevic who also has a very credible jump shot for a 5 (41% last year, same as Brook Lopez)

We always hear Steve Kerr talk about how the Heat were a great defense from day 1, and the stats bear that out: through 3 games their 2011 DRtg was 91.4, through 10 games 101.6... and that was with Zydrunas, Carlos Arroyo, James Jones, Eddie House playing significant minutes. The Nets roster just doesn't have enough defenders.

-Garnett is only a plus camped out at the rim, which he can't do with Lopez on the floor.
-It's hard to tell with Lopez, who was atrocious early in his career but better recently and he is only 25. Is he getting better or was it just a one year fluke?
-Kirilenko is a plus.
-Joe Johnson seems like he should be a plus, but over the past 5 years his teams have been an average of 1.7 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the court. (Kirilenko's 5 year average is 2.2 better.)
-Pierce is an adequate defender.

Compare to the Heat, who had James and Wade as elite perimeter defenders (and adequate rim protectors), Bosh who was adequate at both, and Anthony whose hands were made for annihilating basketballs (unfortunately on the offensive end as well). As beautiful as the Nets offense has been at times so far this season, it's hard to put them ahead of Miami's offense when it gets in gear. If they can only manage a draw at that end and are dramatically worse at defense, how are the Nets supposed to win a series? People talk about how guys like Thibodeau make a defense work with anyone (and Frank is a good defensive coach), but the Bulls DRtg was 5 points worse last year when they had Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli playing defense. There's just too long a way to go to get from where the Nets were last year and are now to a good defense, and they just don't have the horses.

Gsgeek

11-04-2013, 01:57 PM

Go twolves!!! Mostly healthy roster for now and solid bench = wins baby.....(along with all the other misc goodies, adelman back at coach with wife hopefully doing well and kahn gone.)

Compared to the east, the west is going to be tough to clinch in

Keller

11-05-2013, 11:05 PM

When is Latrin going to write one of those thinly-veiled attempts at objectively analyzing a team while slobbering all over Paul George and the undefeated Indiana Pacers?

Anebriated

11-06-2013, 03:36 AM

When is Latrin going to write one of those thinly-veiled attempts at objectively analyzing a team while slobbering all over Paul George and the undefeated Indiana Pacers?

The day Lebron gets traded to Indiana.

Latrinsorm

11-06-2013, 01:18 PM

Actually I was going to write something about the Pacers today anyway! So Keller is a witch. The two big reasons people expected the Pacers to be great this year (as opposed to good and then catching absolute napalm fire in the playoffs) were star improvement (George and Hibbert) and improved bench (Scola, Watson, Copeland).

Hibbert has more blocks than 17 teams, and while 82games doesn't have on/off splits up yet the Pacers having a friggin' 89.8 DRtg indicates it's not just highlight plays he's making - they might hold the Bulls under 70 tonight. George is stuffing the stat sheet (30 PER and .300 WS/48), so all's well, right? Well... maybe. George also has a USG over 30, which isn't a big deal over 4 games but is if he's got it in his head that he's a 30 USG guy. He's not going to shoot 60% from 2 and 45% from 3 all season, he's not the playmaker that LeBron is (of course) or even on the Carter/Pierce/Wade level. I'm not saying he's all the way down at the Carmelo level, but the bottom line is that the Pacers aren't going anywhere with Roy Hibbert scoring 8 points a game, and that's all he's getting if you only give him 10 touches.

The reason I was going to write about the Pacers is that Chris Copeland has played 4 minutes all season, all of them in an empty the bench situation against Cleveland, which especially with Granger being out is very shocking. All 3 games he missed are listed as DNP CD, which doesn't mean he isn't nursing an injury but it seems strange not to have his back on that if he is. The third wing (or fourth depending on how you count Scola) seems to be Orlando Johnson, who was part of the heavily disparaged bench last year. Although Copeland is 5 years older they're each in their 2nd NBA year, they had similar production per touch last year with Johnson being more of a playmaker and Copeland being more of a scorer, it's hard to tell from one year but they appear to be equally average defenders... I don't get why you go even further over the cap to bring Copeland in if you're not going to play him, especially when point guard continues to be a major issue.

It's totally possible that Vogel is still tinkering with his rotation, especially with Granger still out, and speaking of Granger this undefeated start is the worst thing that could happen for him. If he comes back and the Pacers even appear to struggle to integrate him and his isolation 18 footers, what happens to the chemistry? Roy Hibbert is barely getting touches as is, I guarantee you Danny Granger expects more touches than Orlando Johnson.

Latrinsorm

11-07-2013, 05:45 PM

Watched the Bulls - Pacers game, and I know they're great defensive teams but seriously, they are both comically weak offensive teams.

WILL SOMEONE PASS THE BALL TO ROY HIBBERT. He had 9 friggin' touches before two late: a meaningless long jumper with the game in hand, and busting his butt to get an offensive rebound on an IND FTA. I was kicking around the notion that he was a reverse DH, that he and Indy were intentionally avoiding him on offense to let him conserve his energy on defense, but if so big Roy didn't get the memo: he is ALWAYS running the floor, ALWAYS getting deep post position, and ALWAYS getting ignored by his teammates, especially his pathetically incompetent point guards. Donald Sloan, an 8 second violation? Are you a professional basketball player? Really? Yes Hill is hurt and Sloan is the 3rd stringer, but give me a break with this. As if to make my point as easy as possible to make, the best post entry pass of the night was thrown by ROY HIBBERT.

I have a new theory for basketball: the Willie Mays Hayes Theory. As you all remember, and don't even try to play it off like you don't, in Major Leagues II WMH came into spring training swinging for the fences and hit a few long balls, but as manager James Gammon grouses "off a kid who's going to be bagging groceries next week". Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson both had major hype coming out of the preseason... and now they are trying to do way too much to the clear detriment of their team. (Paul George is also trying to do way too much, there were some legit Kobe shot selections last night, but at least he's making them for now.)

Lance Stephenson deserves his own paragraph - he had a miserable preseason, lost his starting job to Granger, Granger gets hurt, and now he thinks he's Steph Curry. Lance is not Steph Curry. There is no universe where Lance Stephenson should have more touches than Roy Hibbert, let alone WAY more. He's shooting a miraculous and totally unsustainable 54% from three and he's still putting up only 0.968 per possession. It's really hard to watch.

Speaking of hard to watch, Derrick Rose's jump shot! He does this crazy thing where his lower body spins about 45º from right to left, so he has to stab at the landing with his right foot straight in front of his left foot. This is not how a professional NBA player should take jump shots. There's a reason Ray Allen and Steve Nash have form like they do and shoot 300% on everything.

Speaking of terrible jump shots, Solomon Hill! Not so much the form but the decision-making... with 45 seconds left in the first quarter the Pacers had the ball. Paul George misses a layup, Roy Hibbert gets the offensive rebound with 20 seconds remaining. You hold for 1, right? Not the wise Solomon! He chucks a 3 with 15 seconds left, Roy Hibbert gets ANOTHER offensive rebound with 13 seconds left. Ok now you definitely hold for 1, right? F that! Donald Sloan takes a tough floater with 10 seconds left, MORE than enough time for Chicago to get a good look. Solomon Hill is playing over Chris Copeland, who you paid and therefore could not pay for a decent PG over Donald Sloan... something's not right here, guys.

The Bulls were a trainwreck on offense too, but that's old news. It does make you wonder why people keep letting C.J. Watson go, though. He's over 2 AST/TOV for his career and under 3 FGA/AST. He's a quality backup PG with a legit (38%) 3 shot, and Chicago for sure and Brooklyn maybe (depending on how Shaun Livingston pans out) could really, really use a player like that right now.

Latrinsorm

11-07-2013, 07:40 PM

Kirk Goldsberry. Kirk, Kirk, Kirk. Defending a high volume low efficiency shooter, but this time it's Monta (http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/81633/courtvision-the-revenge-of-monta-ellis), because stats can't account for everything!!!!! He had to take every shot!!!!!

No.

He chose to take every shot, just like Kobe chose to ignore the fact that he was playing with two unstoppable 7 footers in the modern NBA and shot himself out of at least one ring, probably two. Remember that Monta played two and a half years with Steph Curry, and averaged 22, 20, and 19 shots a game. He shot worse and more than Curry every single year they played together. Give me a break with this "LEAVE MONTA ALONE" garbage.

DoctorUnne

11-07-2013, 08:23 PM

Dammit wtf is Boston doing winning a game

Latrinsorm

11-08-2013, 01:27 PM

It was so nice watching two teams that could run an offense after the IND-CHI debacle. One illustration:

1st quarter, 8 minutes left
Wade brings the ball up.
Bosh sets a back screen for Haslem at the elbow.
Haslem comes up to set the screen for a Wade pick and roll.
Wade picks the ball up (Haslem's man inexplicably stays high as though Wade could drive anyway) and passes to Bosh at the right wing.
Haslem and Wade move to the left side of the court to set a stagger screen for Chalmers in the left corner.
Chalmers fakes towards the screen, then cuts baseline to the basket.
Bosh hits him with a nice pass, and Chris Paul is so out of position he has to sell out on the shot fake.
As he flies past Chalmers, Jordan has to rotate over, leaving Haslem wide open for a layup.

There was more action on that possession than in the ENTIRE Bulls Pacers game. Why is this? For starters, unlike Indiana, every Miami player decisively executes a task, they don't all have their hand up calling for the ball. Throughout the above possession James was camped in the right corner, and because he is statistically an excellent shooter (and LeBron James) his man had to stay glued to him. This lets James contribute significantly to the offense without expending any energy, and if he decides "it's LeBron time!!" and barges into the paint, he ruins the whole play. Another example:

4th quarter, 8 minutes left
LeBron brings the ball up.
Battier and Andersen set a stagger screen for the pick and roll, leaving Jared Dudley far, far in the dust and forcing multiple switches.
LeBron makes an easy entry pass to Wade on the right block.
As he does so, Battier has finished with his screening and circles to the baseline and to the left corner...
...and nobody on the Clippers follows him, because whose man is Battier now? They clearly don't know, as all 5 Clippers are within 2 feet of the paint.
Wade to Battier, 3 points.

People talk all the time about how the Spurs benefit from continuity and team philosophy, it's time to put the Heat in that category. Everybody does their job, nobody complains to the media, and they just keep winning. And to be fair, like the Spurs, having one of the 10 greatest players of all time helps.

RichardCranium

11-08-2013, 02:25 PM

Anthony Davis.

Latrinsorm

11-08-2013, 03:40 PM

He'd be the third guy to average 2 steals and blocks per game over a season after David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon (4 times in a row, nbd), so he's got that going for him. (Same is true for Al Horford, technically.)

My favorite picture of the young season:

http://blacksportsonline.com/home/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Nick-Young-Kobe-Bryant.jpg

I. Can't. Wait. Until these two guys play together.

RichardCranium

11-09-2013, 09:47 AM

Yup.

Latrinsorm

11-09-2013, 03:23 PM

Caught the 2nd half of the Nets game last night, and there was some weird stuff going on.

-The announcers. First of all, the new color commentator is an unbelievable homer. Where have you gone, Mike Fratello? On JET's potential game-winning 3 at the end of regulation, KG and Lopez set a very good elevator-door screen (probably stolen from Golden State) but then KG (as is his wont) CLEARLY grapples Trevor Ariza to keep him from getting to the shooter. The color guy COMPLETELY ignores this, and instead repeatedly remarks on how free JET was, and how DC as a young team needed to learn how to close games, repeatedly highlighting DC errors as youthful indiscretions and excusing BRK errors, except um DC was 18-9 over the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter and 13-9 in OT, so...?

-Second of all, and God bless Ian (don't call him Eean) Eagle, Coach Kidd (Dynamite?) was going with some really, really weird rotations. The Captain doesn't play a minute in the fourth quarter, then plays all 5 of overtime...? Coach Wittman takes the dare, bringing in Garrett Temple (had played 0 of the previous 52:43 minutes) to guard Pierce on the last meaningful Nets possession. Wat?

-Is Kevin Garnett just washed up? The Nets have played 5 games and are -12 overall in 245 minutes. KG is -22 and has played 112 minutes. I love KG (and Haslem), but sometimes guys just get old, and grit and toughness and leadership aren't really worth as much as being able to stop friggin' Nene in single coverage.

.

Russell, Russell, Russell. Durant goes for 37 on 26 touches, Westbrook for 20 on 27. Durant has 7 assists, Westbrook has ZERO. When SERGE IBAKA has more assists than you, it is time to re-evaluate yourself. A plus for OKC is Steven Adams is looking frisky off the bench (foul rate isn't a big deal for backups, c.f. Chris Andersen), but I don't see how we can take OKC seriously until Westbrook gets a shock collar or something. Admittedly this last game was an extreme example, but it's the same old same old. He's a 6'3" shooting guard (and a secretly weak defender), and his choices are holding them back.

RichardCranium

11-09-2013, 08:46 PM

-Is Kevin Garnett just washed up?

He's 20 years old and plays for New Orleans now.

32/12/6/2

Youngest player to ever do it.

Latrinsorm

11-09-2013, 08:57 PM

Kobe would have done it if he wanted to, but he's more concerned with W/W/W/W. Also riding Shaq's coattails. He's more concerned with doing that, too.

RichardCranium

11-09-2013, 08:59 PM

Ask him how Shaq's ass taste?

Latrinsorm

11-09-2013, 09:01 PM

Okay. Kobe! Tell me how [Shaq's] ass tastes.

My guess is... of Goldbond. Man up!

RichardCranium

11-09-2013, 09:42 PM

I thought Shaq rolled with Icy Hot.

Latrinsorm

11-10-2013, 12:16 AM

He's the Big Multitasker.

Friggin' Pacers. They finally start posting up Roy Hibbert... against Brook Lopez??? The one guy in the Eastern Conference who can actually handle him one on one??? Friggin' Pacers.

Reputation calls left and right: Paul Pierce got called for about 5 illegal screens, meanwhile KG did KG things all night and had maybe 1 offensive foul, meanwhile Hibbert doesn't even bother jumping anymore and still gets verticality calls.

Speaking of KG - failing to convert on an alley-oop layup... time to hang 'em up, Ticket. -14 in 27 minutes, Nets were +9 in the other 21. Time to hang 'em up. The fans and announcers lost their minds for a basic, uncontested put-back dunk. Lou Gehrig moment, time to hang 'em up.

I get Nets game in my area, is why I watch so many of their games, but I'm going to have to start watching them on mute. Deron Williams takes a step-back 3 in the first quarter with NINETEEN seconds left on the 24. That's a terrible shot. Just terrible. The color commentator describes this as "didn't have anything, great step-back jumper". I will punch you right in the ovaries.

Narratives already written: Heat start 2-9 in any given game, they're complacent, they think they have an on/off switch (as opposed to those on/on switches), they need to take the regular season seriously and have a sense of urgency. Nets start 2-9 tonight, well... whatever, they're proven winners, they have veteran leadership, they would never get Td up friggin' 5 minutes into the game. Oh, Paul Pierce did? Well that's the "officials trying to establish a style of play... you don't want them to get in the way." Narratives are stupid. Stats are less stupid. Stick with stats.

Plumlee looks feisty! Although a 6'11" guy barely being able to dunk doesn't speak too well for his long term prospects. Anyway, now the Nets have 13 guys who all think they should get minutes and a 2-4 record, that should work out pretty well.

What happened to the Nets' movement? They were carving up Miami without even dribbling, it seemed like every possession tonight was one pass, one shot, go back the other way.

Williams and Blatche playing pick and roll defense is just hard to watch. One possession in the second quarter, a very basic high pick and roll, no fancy misdirection, decent but not terrifying spacing with Mahinmi, Johnson, and Born Ready spotting up:
Blatche shows as Williams goes under. Okay.
Williams gets West exactly between him and Hill, then STOPS and GRABS ONTO West. What???
Hill starts to reverse, but then remembers it's friggin' Blatche, stops, and goes BACK the way he was first going, STILL managing to blow by Blatche. WHAT?
Plumlee makes a decent rotation and because it's George Hill he bails out with a floater, drawing a crappy touch foul.
Derrick Rose would crush Plumlee's skull with one hand and dunk with the other.

.

Bottom line, not impressed by either team. Pacers are 7-0, great, but 2 of those wins were close. They count in the standings, but they're not useful for predicting. Pacers are 5-0-2, Miami is 3-0-3, it could just as easily be Pacers 5-2 Heat 6-0 as Pacers 7-0 Heat 4-3.

DoctorUnne

11-10-2013, 12:09 PM

How about the Heat losing at home to a Celtics team without Rondo and who is blatantly tanking this season?

Latrinsorm

11-10-2013, 01:47 PM

How about the Heat losing at home to a Celtics team without Rondo and who is blatantly tanking this season?Like I've said a million times before, a close loss doesn't mean anything for true talent level, and therefore future predictions. (Neither does a close win.) As for the opponent, the 72 win Bulls lost to the friggin' Raptors. It happens. (Side note: can you believe the Raptors were already in the league in 1996? Can you believe Alvin Robertson was starting for them? Weird juxtaposition.)

Let me ask you this: why do you think nobody talked about Miami's record in close games last year? Because it was the best in the NBA (and the best in the last four years), that doesn't fit the narrative, so those people ignore it.

Even putting that aside, Gerald Wallace clearly took more than 5 seconds to inbound the ball. Catch to release I've got him at 5.1 seconds, whistle to release 5.3. Not sure what the rule is, but either way that's a violation. Was that the only blown call in the game? Of course not. Maybe there were 5, maybe they all went the Celtics' way, maybe the rest went the Heat's way. A team can't control the referees blowing call, one of the many, many, many reasons the outcomes of close games are a 50/50 proposition.

Latrinsorm

11-10-2013, 02:33 PM

So on the Kevin Garnett topic I remembered another NBA stats site that updates nightly, so here we go. All numbers are points per 100 possessions for and against.

Garnett and Lopez: 97.7 - 104.0 = -6.3 (96 minutes)
Garnett, no Lopez: 97.6 - 124.4(!!!) = -26.8 (43 minutes)
Lopez, no Garnett: 103.4 - 98.1 = +5.5 (85 minutes)
Neither: 107.0 - 100.8 = +6.2 (68 minutes)

Looks like I was wrong about Garnett, he can't anchor the defense even without Lopez planted in the lane. (I also checked Garnett no Lopez no Blatche, the numbers were almost identical.) The "neither" stat is probably more a compliment for their strong bench than either player's detriment and we're dealing with fairly small sample sizes, but still.

Latrinsorm

11-10-2013, 11:13 PM

Russell, Russell, Russell... ejected for a second technical (after committing an offensive foul) with 3 minutes to go and the Thunder down 10. OKC goes 14-4 over the last 3 minutes to tie the game, win in overtime. Shockingly to anyone who has ever watched him play, this is only his second career ejection. Statistically, 43 techs in 398 games gives a 1.3% chance for ejection, which works out to 5.1 ejections, so he's ahead of the game in keeping his cool (all observational body language evidence to the contrary notwithstanding). Still, he put up 13 points on 22 touches, had less assists than Durant, had the worst ± of all starters (OKC and WAS), blah blah blah, he's a lunatic. To be fair, he's only turning 25 on Tuesday, but still.

Gsgeek

11-11-2013, 02:04 AM

Keller

11-11-2013, 10:44 AM

Bottom line, not impressed by either team. Pacers are 7-0, great, but 2 of those wins were close. They count in the standings, but they're not useful for predicting. Pacers are 5-0-2, Miami is 3-0-3, it could just as easily be Pacers 5-2 Heat 6-0 as Pacers 7-0 Heat 4-3.

http://the-mainboard.com/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/puzzled.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/KYPOwCc.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/ZHcRlhV.pnghttp://the-mainboard.com/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/penguininatux.png

Ardwen

11-11-2013, 10:54 AM

so the Heat losing to bad teams doesn't count and the Pacers beating better team doesn't count? Sorry but that doesn't wash. Good teams should win the close games not choke and miss 2 free throws to lose them.

Latrinsorm

11-11-2013, 01:55 PM

Wasnt it only his second game back from however long he was out?Yes, but this isn't an isolated observation. Westbrook shoots too much, passes too little, doesn't try hard enough on defense, is totally incapable of keeping his cool. That all of these factors were on display last night just makes for a conveniently succinct example.
so the Heat losing to bad teams doesn't count and the Pacers beating better team doesn't count? Sorry but that doesn't wash. Good teams should win the close games not choke and miss 2 free throws to lose them.I agree that it is counter-intuitive, but every empirical bit of data bears it out:

Winning close games in one regular season has no bearing on doing so in the next.
Winning close games in one regular season has no bearing on doing so in its postseason.
Most importantly, winning close games is not a reliable predictor of playoff success.

I have tabulated 20 seasons' worth of data. In each of those 20 seasons, 16 teams entered the playoffs. Here is how 3 models fare in predicting the champion; record in only games decided by 5 or fewer points, record in only games decided by 6 or more points, record in all games...

2 of 19: 10.53% ± 14.08%
7 of 19: 36.84% ± 22.13%
5 of 17: 29.41% ± 22.10%

In several cases there were ties, so I excluded those results. Note how relying on close games is statistically indistinguishable from picking a playoff team at random (1/16 = 6.25%), how overall record is barely distinguishable, and how ignoring close games gives the best results of all.

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We can also look at how many champions have had losing records in each score range (1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16+): 10, 3, 2, and 0 respectively. Blowouts matter, not close games. There have been champions undefeated in blowouts (1992 Bulls), undefeated in 11-15 games (3 teams), but no NBA champion has ever gone undefeated in close games. Overall, champions have had (to a statistically significant degree) a better record in non-close games than overall, and much better than merely close games: 75.9% ± 1.4% in games decided by 6+, 71.5% ± 1.3% overall, 59.8% ± 2.6% in games decided by 5 or less.

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We can also look at the result of every playoff series (again excluding ties from predictions) and we get...

173 of 296: 58.45% ± 5.73%
228 of 299: 76.25% ± 4.92%
214 of 283: 75.62% ± 5.10%

Close games are the worst way of trying to model playoff success.

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As for Wade "choking", he's a 77% free throw shooter for his career. The odds of him missing both free throws accidentally are therefore (1-.77)*(1-.77) = 5%. Seeing him do it once is no more evidence that he's a choker than seeing him make both once is evidence he's clutch. More importantly, he intentionally missed the second free throw, intending for the last 0.6 seconds of the clock to run out in the ensuing struggle for the rebound. As it turned out, he missed too well, missing the rim entirely and drawing a violation instead.

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Finally, and I can't stress this enough, it should really tell you something that we talked about the Heat's record in close games to death in 2011, when their record was bad. Then their record was good, and nobody said a word about it for two years. Now it's bad again, and suddenly it matters again? If you can't see the strings, I don't know what to tell you.

DoctorUnne

11-11-2013, 07:53 PM

Like I've said a million times before, a close loss doesn't mean anything for true talent level, and therefore future predictions.

It's still embarrassing.

Latrinsorm

11-12-2013, 05:00 PM

I'm a little surprised Paul George is getting MVP talk (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/5-on-5-131112/top-mvp-surprises). Quote from Henry Abbott: "he has blatantly outclassed LeBron, Rose, Melo & Co." First of all, I don't know how 'Melo got into that conversation. Second of all, WHY DOES NO ONE LOVE ROY.

Paul George's personal ± is 16.3(!) per 100 possessions (292 minutes), the Pacers without him are -4.2 (92 minutes).

Roy Hibbert's personal ± is 21.3(!) per 100 possessions (235 minutes), the Pacers without him are -4.0 (149 minutes).

Those are pretty close, but... in the 63 minutes that Paul George has been on the court and Roy Hibbert has not, the Pacers are getting outscored by 0.8 points per 100 possessions. And this is with George getting almost twice as many touches per game as big Roy (23.34 to 12.44). Look. Paul George is a fine player and the Pacers are off to a fine start, but if he's not even the MVP of his own team, let's tap the brakes a little on the MVP talk.

Keller

11-12-2013, 11:27 PM

There are two things I can count on in life - shitting after morning coffee and Eric carrying Lebron's water.

Drew

11-12-2013, 11:39 PM

There are two things I can count on in life - shitting after morning coffee and Eric carrying Lebron's water.

I'm fine with this comment as long as you didn't talk any shit when I said Dwyane Wade should have won the MVP back in 09.

Latrinsorm

11-12-2013, 11:47 PM

There are two things I can count on in life - shitting after morning coffee and Eric carrying Lebron's water.First of all, that is not at all how a GI tract is supposed to work. Stop taking coffee and call your doctor immediately.

Second of all, that was a post lauding Big Roy Hibbert. They may look the same to people of your ilk but Hibbert and LeBron are two different people.

Keller

11-13-2013, 12:03 AM

I'm afraid that your post must be taken into context of your prior posting history.

That was an underhanded shot at both Paul George and the Pacers in defense of your underperforming boyfriend and his team.

Latrinsorm

11-13-2013, 12:11 AM

I'm afraid that your post must be taken into context of your prior posting history.There's your problem right there, LeBrophobe. This guy's a LeBrophobe!
That was an underhanded shot at both Paul George and the Pacers in defense of your underperforming boyfriend and his team.I thought it was a very overhanded shot at Paul George. Context is important, but spurred on by your own bias you have leapt past the appropriate context: the only reasonable interpretation of my post is that George's amazing ± is due primarily to Roy Hibbert, who therefore is primarily responsible for his own amazing ±.

Latrinsorm

11-13-2013, 12:14 PM

After LeBron gave a fiery leader speech about defense, the Heat are back!!!!! ...or are they?

1. The Bucks put up a 98.9 ORtg last night, which is only slightly below average for them. Caron Butler (yes, he's still in the league!) goes 3 for 8 instead of 2 for 8 from 3 and their ORtg is 102.0. There was some garbage time, but still.

2. Udonis Haslem did not play. I had really high hopes for UD after it was revealed he played through an injury last year, but the Heat are -9.6 points per 100 possessions with him on the court, including a woeful 116.1 DRtg. Without him they are +12.6 and while their 104.5 DRtg is still mediocre, a double digit improvement is a major issue for a guy whose major contribution is supposed to be on that side of the ball.
-He doesn't take or make jumpers anymore (1 of 4 from 10-15, 0 of 2 from 16+)
-He doesn't finish super well at the rim (9 layups to 2 dunks for 64% FG% compared to Birdman's 13 layups to 6 dunks for 74% FG% albeit in more minutes)
-He clogs the lane (LeBron gets 45% of his FGA at the rim with Haslem off the court and only 38% with him on)
Spo did finally cut the cord in the Finals last year (0 MP game 6, 1.5 MP and 2 PF in game 7 that saw the Heat go -4), but I really feel like Rashard Lewis could step in and get this team a few more regular season wins.

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That's depressing, enough of that. How 'bout dem Pistons? Through last night they have a 106.4 ORtg (top 10) and a 109.8 DRtg (second worst). The Drummond-Smith-Monroe combo has surprisingly put up a 106.6 ORtg and very surprisingly put up a 119.1(!!!) DRtg. What also seems shocking at first is the source of a lot of those points: opponents are shooting 67%(!!!) at the rim against that trio. For reference, Dwyane Wade shoots 65% at the rim. People who play this Pistons lineup are on average finishing better than Dwyane Wade. (Roy Hibbert holds opponents to 47% at the rim, which obviously is a testament to LeBron James.)

It seems shocking, because all three have size and two are supposed to be elite defenders, but perhaps too many cooks spoil the broth. In the same way we can't all shoot the same ball, we can't all block the same ball. For obvious reasons I haven't watched any Pistons games, but I would imagine there's a lot of confusion on defense for the Pistons (and their absolute dearth of perimeter defense isn't doing them any favors either, obviously).

Latrinsorm

11-13-2013, 04:42 PM

Knicks reportedly (http://espn.go.com/new-york/nba/story/_/id/9971657/new-york-knicks-denver-nuggets-discuss-iman-shumpert-kenneth-faried-trade) want to trade Shumpert for Kenneth Faried, apparently trying to become the worst defensive team of all time. Remember for like a week there when it was fun to be a Knicks fan again? That degenerated quickly.

Latrinsorm

11-14-2013, 02:54 PM

Sportscenter sidebar headline: Carmelo lifts Knicks to win

Two really telling graphics in the recap:

1. Carmelo is the only player in the league to lead his team in points in every game. This is not really a compliment, is it?

2. You know how at the end they show the little bug with final score, and certain players' abbreviated stat lines? Teague: 25 pts, 5 reb, 8 ast. Anthony: 25 pts, end of line. No mention of rebounds, assists, FG%... just buckets, baby.

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Two really telling stats:

1. Carmelo for the night: -5. The rest of the Knicks: +9.

2. The Knicks' ORtg with Carmelo: 97.9. The Knicks' ORtg overall: 98.7.

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Carmelo is bad, and he should feel bad.

Latrinsorm

11-16-2013, 02:42 PM

Rashard Lewis is still getting it done! I always liked that guy!
126 minutes on the court: Heat have 119.3(!!!) ORtg vs. 102.0 DRtg: +17.3(!!!). Obviously he's a big deal on offense, but the defense is surprisingly respectable!
306 minutes off: 112.0 ORtg vs. 109.5 DRtg: +2.5. The Heat are really good.

Let's look at last years figures...
792 minutes on: 105.3 ORtg vs. 106.9 DRtg: -1.3. Again, the defense is surprisingly respectable, which has always been the knock on him.
3184 minutes off: 115.1 ORtg vs. 103.9 DRtg: +11.2. The Heat are really good.
He was a big negative on offense last year, but that probably has more to do with playing only 33% of his minutes with LeBron rather than 52% (and, of course, noise). LeBron and Lewis combined for a 119.0 ORtg last year, LeBron in general a mere 116.9. I was really hoping Haslem was going to bounce back this year, but he's just not. It's time to give Rashard some run, even if only to enhance his trade value.

Keller

11-16-2013, 06:38 PM

So if Indiana wins a 10th in a row tonight, which Heat role player does Latrin fellate?

I think it'll be Dwayne Wade.

Latrinsorm

11-16-2013, 07:18 PM

What did I say? I said give the ball to big Roy. They did, he put up 24 points on 19 touches and had 8 friggin' blocks. The Three Kings are LeBron, LeBron again, and Roy. Keep feeding the big fella and you can take Miami to the brink in the ECF again. Keep letting Paul George indulge in his Kobe fantasy and keep letting Lance Stephenson do wtfever he's doing, it's going to be a quick exit.

And I'm just saying, the Pacers probably don't have the True Talent Level of the best defense in 40+ years. Miami is only slightly above where they were last year in ORtg, and we all know they dog it in the early part of the season for DRtg... and they're still #2 in the EC standings. The Pacers are also slightly above where they were in ORtg last year, but that's with Lance Stephenson shooting 50% from 3 and in general going from bottom 3rd team eFG% last year to top 3rd this year. If you're not playing Copeland, the only change in your bench is C.J. Watson and Luis Scola, and if you think Norris Cole and Chris Andersen can't drink up 100% of those milkshakes you're kidding yourself.

The only Pacer that represents a legitimate threat to Miami is Roy, whose current USG% is (among centers) most equal to Aron Baynes and Enes Kanter. You should be 3000% more chesty at your own team than you are at prissy thermophiles with fabulous hair like me.

Latrinsorm

11-17-2013, 11:48 AM

I'm going to lead with three criticisms of the Pacers:

1. Chris Copeland finally gets PT (none in the first half), scores 13 points (T2nd) and is +14 (1st) in 17 minutes. I like Voegel, but he is f-ing it up by not playing Copeland, and for all his talk about how Copeland is a big he subbed him in last night for Lance Stephenson and had him bomb 3s all night, so... you tell me.

2. A nice, balanced attack only makes sense if your players are more or less equally capable on offense. Give. Roy. The ball.

3. After what was easily their finest stretch of 10 games since Reggie, if not since Daniels, you look up at the standings and the Heat are only 2 games back. Like I said before the season, it's not enough for the Pacers to get way better. The Heat also have to fall way off, and with as poorly as they've played they're on track for 57 wins. We know the Heat can play better, and with respect we also know the Pacers aren't going to win 74 games.

That they got blown out isn't a big deal, especially since Derrick Rose isn't going 6 of 11 from 3 pretty much ever again. Everybody gets blown out.

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I don't understand how Carmelo doesn't just get punched in the mouth every single game. After last night, he said (http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=400489012) "We're not getting it done from an effort standpoint. It's like we're not even trying right now." Carmelo has 197 FGAs to 27 assists, a 7.3:1 ratio that is even worse than his putrid career mark of 6.4:1 entering this season. I can't shoot the ball when it's in your hands, bro. The Knicks % of FGAs assisted goes from 52% with Carmelo on the floor to 61% without him. This isn't really that hard of a game to figure out, and Carmelo is absolutely talented enough to do it right.

Latrinsorm

11-17-2013, 02:18 PM

My favorite NBA quote (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9991489/jason-kidd-looking-help-brooklyn-nets-veteran-stars) so far this season:

[Garnett, Pierce, and Rivers] stay in touch through their cell phones (Rivers prefers texting, because he says it doesn't allow Garnett to swear at him as much).

I don't know what it is about being a foul-mouthed cantankerous psychopath that is so charming, but Garnett pulls it off.

Latrinsorm

11-17-2013, 02:29 PM

Also, I thought Kawhi Leonard was supposed to be a star this year? What is this 28 minutes a game Mickey Mouse bull squash? Is Pop trying to run the first(?) team in history where no one goes over 30 MP/G? Only Tony is above at 31.5, and those are metric minutes anyway. And now I want to research what the lowest MP/G was for the highest man on a championship team. Damn you, Popovich!

Derrick Rose season including last night:
on court: 101.9 - 104.4 = -2.5
off court: 108.0 - 91.0 = +17.0(!!!!!)
These are... not good splits. Really this is mostly directed at the people who bleated about Rose's MVP (and the people who gave it to him in the first place), but still... not good.

Latrinsorm

11-20-2013, 04:42 PM

Want to see something cool?

http://cbafaq.com/blog/?p=275

What's really interesting is all 7 of the guys with higher contracts than LeBron are also on the wrong side of the regression. (Note: Gilbert Arenas is also getting paid more than LeBron, but he's not in the league anymore.) Listed by contract amount: Kobe, Dirk, Amare, Melo, Joe Johnson, Dwight, Pau. I think this is a really interesting commentary on the state of NBA salaries compared to the days when Michael Jordan was the best player in the game and getting paid literally 10 times what Scottie Pippen was.

Keller

11-20-2013, 05:29 PM

This is a great chart.

Confirms that Paul George is the biggest bargain in basketball.

Keller

11-20-2013, 05:31 PM

Latrinsorm

11-20-2013, 05:50 PM

This is a great chart.

Confirms that Paul George is the biggest bargain in basketball.It will be very, very interesting to see how Bill Simmons' trade value column plays out if George can keep this up (and if LeBron doesn't seriously finish a season shooting friggin' 60% from the field), especially considering LeBron can opt out after this year and after next year. I mean, you'd have to take George if you were thinking long term, right? If he falls back to the 18-20 PER range, not so much.

Also, did you see the Stephen A. interview with the Pacers? Two super super fascinating things to me were (1) no Granger and (2) David West is still unquestionably in charge. It's not fascinating in itself that he's in charge, but Roy Hibbert is the highest paid guy, Granger has the most history, Paul George is the media darling (and dominates the ball), and there's no question who's in charge. That's fascinating.
Sucks that this thread is the only thing worth viewing on the PC with any regularity because I can't give reputation to other people so that I can give it to you. In any event, I laughed.:)

DoctorUnne

11-20-2013, 08:27 PM

I am trying to win a fantasy basketball league with Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan, Josh Smith and DeMarcus Cousins. My team is at 67.2% FT and that's with Steph Curry. I also have 15% more turnovers than any other team. Yet despite that I'm in 3rd, and one of the guys ahead of me is waaaaayyyyy above the games limit. Is it possible to win a nine category league tanking two of them? Here is the rest of my team

PG - Curry
SG - Mayo
G - Teague
SF - Josh Smith
PF - Cousins
F - Evan Turner
C - Howard
C - Jordan
Util - MKG
Util - Lowry
Bench - Bass, Harkless, Brandon Knight

Latrinsorm

11-20-2013, 08:51 PM

Picturing that team on the court made me throw up in my mouth a little. Boogie and Dwight would come to blows within a quarter. (And when I say "come to blows" obviously I mean DeMarcus would square up and Dwight would get the hell out of there. He's no dummy.) Good luck though! I would guess that your turnovers would get better as the season goes on and (1) Houston stops playing around and/or (2) Detroit either blows up the roster or the roster blows up, but I have no idea if being second worst is usefully better than worst in Phantasy Basket-ball.

Against my better judgment I have the IND-NYK game getting ahead on TiVo. (I anticipate significant fast-forwarding.) The Knicks current centers are Andrea God Damn Bargnani, Kenyon Martin's Corpse, and Amare Stoudemire (I apologize to the Jews). If the Pacers don't feed Big Roy tonight, I may have to send them a terse, cross letter. (To a polite Midwesterner this is a big deal. I assume.)

Keller

11-21-2013, 09:59 AM

Also, did you see the Stephen A. interview with the Pacers? Two super super fascinating things to me were (1) no Granger and (2) David West is still unquestionably in charge. It's not fascinating in itself that he's in charge, but Roy Hibbert is the highest paid guy, Granger has the most history, Paul George is the media darling (and dominates the ball), and there's no question who's in charge. That's fascinating.:)

I didn't see the interview, but it is not surprising. David West was brought in to lead this team. Looks like he's doing it.

Latrinsorm

11-21-2013, 12:11 PM

Am I a psychic or what? I didn't ask for these powers. Roy Hibbert's usage percentage last night was 10.2%, bringing his mark for the season to 19.5%, the lowest of his career. This included a desperation 3, a desperation dribble drive from 24 friggin' feet, earning a FT with a loose ball foul on another player's FTA, and an intentional foul at the end of OT. Take those out and the Pacers intended him to have a 5.4% usage. He went literally 5 and a half minutes in the fourth quarter without a post touch, and the Pacers were so unimpressed by Bargnani that on a Knicks FTA they sent the third man to double METTA WORLD PEACE instead of him.

It's a farce. We're all impressed by Paul George's Kobe impression, but the people most excited by it are the Miami Heat. Carmelo couldn't do it. Kevin Durant couldn't do it. Derrick Rose couldn't do it. You can't beat the Heat 1 on 5 in a 7 game series. Remember that Roy Hibbert led the Pacers in usage in last year's series against the Heat. Although Doug inexplicably claimed (twice!) Paul George was runner-up DPOY last year, his defense against Carmelo was not great. Carmelo is a powerful scorer, but the only way the Pacers get anywhere is by getting past the Heat, and that LeBron guy is pretty strong too. Paul George is not the most important guy on the Pacers, and the more attention he receives as though he were (and the more he buys into it) the worse off they will be.

This isn't the only source of tension for the Pacers either. George Hill didn't say a word in the Stephen A. interview, and during a timeout while the rest of the Pacers were presumably listening to Vogel, he just got up and walked away. I've seen a lot of disinterested NBA players during timeouts (which is why I think they so rarely show the players in those shots anymore), but can't ever remember a player just leaving.

And there's still the Granger factor, which exacerbates all of the above. He devours possessions, he's a ball stopper, he soaks up even more of the spotlight. Everything is fine when you're winning, but nobody wins every game, and David West can only do so much to keep the team in line.

Still, one thing the Pacers have going for them is Scola is a delight to watch. A much, much, much, much needed aesthetic (and basketball) upgrade over Hansbrough. C.J. Watson has been oddly terrible and Copeland continues to not get consistent PT, but a 6 man team is an improvement over a 5 man team. Baby steps.

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Because the paucity of Roy Hibbert's touches wasn't depressing enough, I also decided to track Carmelo's assist attempts. You'll never believe it, but there weren't very many. By my count he went 2 for 6, some of which were good looks that didn't go in (a Bargnani 3 in semi-transition), some of which were not (jumping for a shot, realizing he had no chance, whipping the ball at Kenyon Martin's knees). What made this more frustrating was Doug Collins mildly excusing his poor shooting because he was "doing all the other things". He was great on the boards, but he was lazy on defense and uninterested in passing. Those are two important other things.

Latrinsorm

11-21-2013, 12:31 PM

A conspiracy theory:

In the pretty cool 3 point shooting Christmas commercial (that is almost certainly fake, because Derrick Rose), the final shot goes Curry to Klay Thompson to LeBron James for the alley oop. Every Laker fan wants to believe LeBron is coming, I have previously advanced a LeBron Clippers theory, but what's so great about LA anyway? Perhaps the Bay Area is better suited, and LeBron knows the proud Warriors history (original NBA franchise, 2 titles, Wilt and Rick Barry) and would probably love to have a decent home crowd for once in his life.

Latrinsorm

11-22-2013, 03:18 PM

Really woeful game between the Thunder and Clips last night. But the Thunder bench does look pretty frisky!

-Steven Adams is an actual 7 footer, with some laborious but effective post moves and lots of energy.
-Jeremy Lamb can shoot at least. A little skinny, seems like he'd get pushed around on D, hard to tell from one game on that front.
-Nick Collison still getting it done!

And Scott Brooks continues to infuriate by sticking with his starting lineup when he's willing to go Jackson - Westbrook - Fisher(!) - Durant - Ibaka(!), closing out the game by maintaining a 14 point lead over 5 minutes in the fourth. It's not that I think that's a great lineup, but it's absolutely a heterodox one, so why does he keep friggin' Perkins in the starting lineup? Go Ibaka - Adams for bigs, Collison first off the bench, Durant slide to PF at times, Ibaka slide to C at times. Done.

Latrinsorm

11-23-2013, 02:02 PM

Against my better judgment I watched the Nets-Wolves game, and... ugh.

Joe Johnson is a surprisingly terrible defender. Putting him and Blatche in the pick and roll was a joke, Minnesota got anything they wanted out of it.

It's hard to tell too much from one game, but Minnesota strikes me as a team whose offense that annihilates poor defenses but gets solved by good defenses. They focus on corner 3s and movement, and if you give it to them they'll take it all night... but it looked like it would be pretty easy to take it away.

Kevin Love played a LOT of minutes: the entire first quarter and the first 3 minutes of the second quarter. By astonishing coincidence, he was doing a lot of jogging going up and down the floor. His season average is pretty reasonable at 35 per game, and I don't know if Minnesota was short a big last night or what, but it was really really weird to see. There are players who play the entire first quarter (LeBron, Durant), but I can't remember the last time I saw one that kept playing to start the second in a random November game.

It was really jarring how few dunks there were in this game. Part of this was the Nets' atrocious iso style (teams with 7 assists or less are now 4-38 since 1986), but it was rosters too. There's nobody on the Nets that's a plus athlete except Joe Johnson, enough said. Minnesota at least has Corey Brewer, but both starting bigs are ground bound (although I was really impressed by Pekovic's hands and touch), the only athlete on the bench is Derrick Williams and again, enough said. The teams combined to go 34 minutes without a dunk to start the game. 34! The play-by-play lists only 2 for the whole game, and even though I'm pretty sure they missed a Corey Brewer dunk, 3 dunks in a game is crazy.

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I do still think the Nets can turn it around, no team in the NBA is good without its best player (Lopez). The rest of the East is so bad that I'm not even too worried about my 6 seed prediction. In the same way but in a mirror, darkly, I'm also not too worried about my Twolves missing the playoffs prediction. They're behind 6 of the teams I thought they would be, only a half game ahead of Memphis, and it's pretty likely that one of Portland or New Orleans is for real. Still, the problems with the East/West low seeds figure to be extremely pronounced this year.

Latrinsorm

11-23-2013, 07:31 PM

Rose torn meniscus (http://espn.go.com/chicago/nba/story/_/id/10025640/derrick-rose-chicago-bulls-indefinitely-needs-surgery-torn-medial-meniscus-knee). Depending on the surgery he will be out 2 months or the rest of the season. The short term return is if the meniscus is removed entirely: for a 25 year old, that seems like an unbelievably terrible way to go about it. Also consider that Rose has just been awful so for this season:

On court: 99.7 ORtg, 105.6 DRtg; net -5.9 points per 100 possessions.
Off court: 106.5 ORtg, 89.5(!!) DRtg; net +17.0(!!!).

I don't know how to put error bars on those figures (605 and 399 possessions respectively), but it's not like we're talking about 5 minute samples. End the season, save his career. You weren't beating Miami or Indiana anyway, maybe Miami blows it up after this year and you only have to get through Indiana next year.

Do the right thing.

Latrinsorm

11-26-2013, 03:52 PM

Kobe getting paiiiiiiiiiiiiid. Good for him. Not super good for the Laker championship hopes. That's what being a winner is about.

The stat of the day: most career field goals missed.
1. John Havlicek - 13417
2. Elvin Hayes - 13296
3. Kobe Bryant - 13277
4. Karl Malone - 12682
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 12470

If Kobe comes back, he's got 141 to pass Havlicek. Last year he missed 11 per game, so it'll be about 13 games to do so. His misses per game are not so historic: 10.7 is only good for 8th most per game of guys in the top 30 in misses. Also interesting are perimeter guys with very low misses/game in the top 30: Gary Payton (7.5), Jason Kidd (6.7), Reggie Miller (6.7), so it's not just being a perimeter guy that ran his number up there.

Latrinsorm

11-27-2013, 03:05 PM

I thought one of Kobe's tweets was really characteristic:
"The cap rules players have to be "selfless" on To "help" BILLIONAIRE owners R the same cap rules the owners LOCKED US out to put in #think"

On the surface, it's a great point. Kobe Bryant didn't invent the salary cap. Kobe Bryant didn't cause a work stoppage. Kobe Bryant didn't use that work stoppage as leverage to make the cap even stricter. It isn't on Kobe Bryant to make his team's owners richer.

...but Kobe Bryant has to realize that it's not just about the $$$ that go briefly into Jim Buss' pockets before being spent on hookers and blow. There's only so much room, and there's only so much flexibility deals that can be made with that room. He oddly insists that the Lakers have max+ room when they just don't without 86ing other players, especially the still productive Pau Gasol (16 PER and 30 MP/G centers don't grow on trees, by my count there are 12 in the NBA). They could make a trade, but with what? They've got no picks, their only rotation player under 26 is Xavier Henry, who has bounced around the league for 4 years without leaving a dent.

This isn't 2008, where they had a movable expiring contract in Kwame Brown's 9m and two first rounders to throw away. Pau's making 19m, and he's not 2004 Shaq either. It's just not going to work.

Atlanteax

11-27-2013, 03:55 PM

DoctorUnne

11-27-2013, 04:05 PM

A miss where you draw a foul is not a FGA.

Latrinsorm

11-27-2013, 07:17 PM

What about missed shots due to intentionally drawing fouls ... repeatedly?As above, but it is interesting to wonder how the FTr (FTA/FGA) of the 5 stack up...

Abdul-Jabbar: 32.9%
Karl Malone: 50.3%
Bryant: 39.0%
Hayes: 33.0%
Havlicek: 27.5%

Jordan: 35.8%
LeBron: 43.0% (we would expect to decline as he gets older)

In conclusion, it's pretty sweet to play with John Stockton.

Latrinsorm

11-30-2013, 01:22 PM

Browsing the box scores today, we have quite a few whoppers:

Lance Stephenson: 7 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists, 8(!!!) turnovers. The ABA quadruple double is pretty rare, only Barkley, Kidd (of course), and Fat Lever have pulled it off since 1986, I think Lance has the best chance at it. Durant is too good a passer and doesn't get enough touches, Chris Paul would tear out Blake's trachea if he started fooling around like that, Curry can't get the rebounds, but Lance? I wouldn't put anything past Lance.

Headline: "Melo's last-second miss gives Nuggets win". I'm going to guess the 0 assists had something to do with it. Carmelo -4 in 40 minutes, Knicks +2 in the remaining 8. You tell me. Updated on/off splits:
Melo: 102.8 ORtg, 106.7 DRtg - 1139 possessions
No Melo: 94.7 ORtg, 117.6 DRtg - 227 possessions
These values are statistically indistinguishable (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?87057-NBA-The-%B1-of-%B1), but at least he doesn't appear backwards anymore. The real takeaway is that like pretty much every other team Melo has ever been on, they're average. He hasn't won only 3 playoff series because he's a choke job artist, but because he sabotages his team all year, gets a worse seed, and continues to sabotage his team in the playoffs.

A surprising result so far this season is that LeBron has been underwater in on/off splits, which continued last night when he was a mere +3 over 36 minutes and the rest of the Heat were +4 in 12. The Miami Heat won the last two titles, but without LeBron on the court they were -3.3 and -4.3 per 100 possessions: losing teams. You might think that we could say that about the marquee player of every title team for the 5 years previous to the Heat too, and you would be right (except for Boston, which you would probably hedge on), but with the exception of the Dirkless Mavs being -6.1(!!!) without him, nobody else cracked -4. So far this year...

LeBron: 112.5 ORtg, 104.1 DRtg - 1098 possessions: +8.5 ± 5.0
No Bron: 112.8 ORtg, 97.2 DRtg - 392 possessions: +15.6 ± 8.5
Again, not statistically significant yet, but interesting nonetheless. +8.5 is a pretty friggin' good ±, it could be that the Miami bench is just dramatically improved relative to other benches while LeBron is merely just as good relative to other starters.

In conclusion, Michael BEASTLY.

Latrinsorm

12-01-2013, 03:13 PM

Kawhi Leonard continues to not really have a breakout year, as widely anticipated after his performance in the Finals. Last year he average 12 points, 6 rebounds, 1.6 assists to 1.1 turnovers per game. This year so far he is averaging 12 points, 6 rebounds, 1.4 assists to 1.2 turnovers per game. His PER is up 2 because he is doing all this in less minutes (28 vs. 31 per game), but there aren't a lot of stars that play 28 minutes per game, especially those whose backups are Marco Belinelli. I like Marco, but he's not a SF and he's not a star. After shooting 37.6% and 37.4% from 3 the last two years, Kawhi is shooting only 23.8% this year, but with error bars we get...

37.6% ± 9.3%
37.4% ± 7.3%
23.8% ± 13.1%

...so it's probably nothing. I would guess his true talent level is lower than 37%, but 35% is still a fine 3P% for a SF. Of a little more concern is that his free throw rate has also dropped precipitously, from slightly below average (.240) to putrid (.112). To be clear, these aren't major concerns for a complementary player, but a perimeter star has to excel at something on the offensive end: shooting, drawing fouls, raw scoring, playmaking. He is average to below average at all of these, sort of a Rudy Gay type. Being able to add sensational defense to that makes him a very worthwhile complementary player, I'm just saying we should probably pump the brakes on the "new big 3" talk.

Latrinsorm

12-01-2013, 08:41 PM

At halftime against Charlotte, LeBron is -4, and I started to wonder if there were any statistical indicators of why his ± is merely at a borderline MVP level this year rather than rewriting the record books for the millionth time.

If we look at per game stats, LeBron and Bosh are down across points rebounds and assists, at career lows or since-rookie-year lows. Some of this can be explained by also being at career lows in minutes per game (Bosh's are 6 lower than any other year, but some of that is probably due to foul trouble), as their per-36 numbers aren't as troubling. Also, LeBron is shooting friggin' 60% from the field and 50% from three with a 30+ PER and >.300 WS/48, so it's not like he turned into a bum or something, just that some of his stats are slightly worse than his ridiculous standards.

I think it mostly has to do with two areas: Miami is killing it with a 51.2% team field goal percentage (20th team ever, first since 1995, nbd), and it's hard to rebound a shot that doesn't miss. They are allowing a slightly higher FG% than the past few years, and that hurts everyone's rebounds the same way. The second area is turnovers: after graduating from "rubbish" to "adequate" last year they are back in the bin this year, even Wade (who is otherwise the Miami star not experiencing slippage). Throw in an unsettled starting rotation and the rebirth of Beasley, and it's easy to see how LeBron's ± and on/off would dip. Again, he's fixing to be the first player ever with 30+ PER and .300+ WS/48 for three seasons, which would also equal the total of every other player who has every played in the NBA (2 for Michael, 1 for Wilt). I'm sure the team success will follow as the standard deviations shrink.

Latrinsorm

12-02-2013, 03:52 PM

So um, sorry that my watching the game broke Anthony Davis' hand. Sorry. From what I did see of him, though, I'm not sure he's ever going to meet the hype.

-For a guy who was supposedly a point guard into high school, his dribble was atrocious. This can be solved mostly by not dribbling, and he's so friggin' long he can get a layup standing outside the paint anyway. Jumper has a lot of potential, already looks smooth, quick release anyone let alone a 6'10" guy. The touch isn't quite there yet, but with form like that he'll be fine.

-Defense is just a disaster. There were multiple possessions where it looked like he was running in a random direction. It's good that he's running, but the young Kevin Garnett comps have to stop. He just doesn't have the instincts. Some guys like this wind up being atrocious defenders (Amare, Boozer), but Davis at least seems to be trainable in a system. The play he probably got injured on was an example of this, rotating in time to draw a charge on Amare. Not only is it the right play, it shows he isn't always chasing steals/blocks, which is a great sign... but he does chase steals/blocks a lot, and you can't play NBA defense with your hands no matter how long your arms are. He also has big trouble with the pick and roll, which might be a problem with the Pelican system but still: even a 20 year old shouldn't be moving robotically on a basic show, it's not like he picked up basketball in high school like Thabeet or Olajuwon.

It could just have been a bad night, but I think his star potential is like Kevin Durant on the offensive end, even though it seems their athleticism and length should make them killers on the defensive end.

Latrinsorm

12-03-2013, 01:46 PM

It's not the Pacers loss that matters so much (because 4 points isn't really a loss), it's that Paul George continues to go in the wrong direction. 43 points is great, but 5 attempts out of 30 in the paint is not going to get it done long term, because you're not going to shoot 50% on jumpers with 50% assisted. The guys who shoot that well on jumpers (Nowitzki, Bosh) were assisted on 70% and 80% of such attempts last year, George is at 45%.

Last year 35% of his attempts came in the paint, this year it's down to 30%. You have to get to the paint either yourself or by setting up your big man, and that number is also going in the wrong direction: 4.1 assists per game and 3.6 FGA/AST last year, 3.4 and 5.5 this year.

We've seen time and again how this strategy can pay huge dividends in the regular season without getting it done in the playoffs: Westbrook, Rose, Bryant. Paul George needs to find the balance between his increased shot making ability and team basketball if he wants the Pacers to get past the Heat. LeBron James can guard Paul George. Nobody on Miami (or for that matter Portland) can guard Roy Hibbert. Quotes like "I really wanted to get this win", "I was trying to will us into the game." are not helping matters. It's easy to get blinded by the 43, but the ± tells a different story: George -1, Hibbert +1.

Keller

12-06-2013, 09:51 AM

Looks like the Bulls might be the second best team in the east afterall.

Latrinsorm

12-06-2013, 05:56 PM

Same old narrative. Heat lose to the Bulls, so the Heat can't handle size. The Heat lost, so whoever they were playing provided a "blueprint"... except the Heat have beaten the Pacers and Bulls 4 out of the last 4 playoff series.

Meanwhile this year's Heat are on track for 60 wins, which we know they can reach, and are sporting a top 10 offense (3) and defense (8). The Pacers are on track for 73, which we know they won't, and while their defense is still superb (1) their offense is still a question mark (14). Wade is the 2nd best player on the Heat this year, Andersen is the fourth best, they combined for 0 minutes last night. Rose has always been (and apparently will always be) overrated.

Bottom-most line: sometimes the ball goes in, sometimes it doesn't. Noah can wave his gun fingers around all he likes, at the end of the day Eastern Conference teams are 0 for 9 beating the Heat in the playoffs.

Keller

12-06-2013, 06:46 PM

Latrinsorm

12-06-2013, 07:02 PM

There's no doubt the Pacers are ahead, and they absolutely have the roster to beat Miami...

...but those two clauses are wholly unrelated. Please come at Miami in the playoffs with Paul George taking 3 of 10 Pacer shots. We ate up Carmelo, Durant, Rose, you think we can't take George? You've lost that loving feeling.

Keller

12-06-2013, 07:13 PM

DoctorUnne

12-06-2013, 08:51 PM

Watch out the Celtics are leading their division

Latrinsorm

12-08-2013, 03:25 PM

Kobe returns today. We are all excited.

-The Lakers are currently 10-9.

-They have scored 1925 and allowed 1953 points: according to the Pythagorean theorem, their record should be 9-10.

-Their ORtg is 104.2 (17), their DRtg is 105.7 (18), and their AST rate is 63.2% (4). The team high USG is Chris Kaman's 25.7.

-They have played the fourth most difficult schedule so far at 1.56 points per game above average. (SOS is tricky because the teams they already played are unlikely to finish the season with the exact record they have now. The Grizzlies are currently 9-10 so losing to them is not good, but if the Grizzlies finish with 50 wins that loss will be more impressive for SOS purposes... but the Grizzlies were playing pretty lousy when the Lakers beat them, so should it? SOS is tricky. Unless there's a huge difference, it probably won't mean anything.)

A season is a small sample size, surely 19 games is as well. I am just recording these numbers for posterity.

Latrinsorm

12-08-2013, 11:38 PM

Are the Raptors making a playoff push (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10105384/toronto-raptors-sacramento-kings-agree-rudy-gay-trade)? Acy and Gray didn't play for them, Patterson is a credible stretch 4 and Vasquez a major upgrade over Dwight Buycks. Going from two black holes to one also seems very productive, and it will be very easy to win the Atlantic. The major money after this year is Rudy Gay's $19m player option and Chuck Hayes under contract $8m. (Gonna go way out on a limb and guess they turn down the option to pay Salmons $7m.) So they've also got that going for them.

I have no idea what Sacramento is doing. Trying to tank? Trying to get Boogie to fistfight one of his own teammates? It sure as heck doesn't make them more competitive, and they aren't terribly competitive now.

.

An odd wrinkle going on with LeBron this year...

He is having perhaps the most effective shooting season ever. Only 3 players have scored 25+/game while having 60%+ effective field goal percentage: McHale, Barkley twice, LeBron last year, with eFG%s of 60.4%, 60.4%, 60.8%, and 60.3%. LeBron after tonight is at 63.8%.

He is having a (for him) atrocious passing season. 6.3 assists per game is fine, but 3.8 turnovers is a career worst (and combined with a career low in MP/G). For his career he's at a 2.09 ast/tov ratio, which is exceptional for a forward. This year he's at 1.65, which is okay for mortals but a career worst for LeBron. It's odd, right? LeBron is supposed to be a better passer than scorer, but it's well backwards this year. Combined with his declining value as far as team DRtg is concerned, and we might finally be seeing LeBron start to decline. (Remember that LeBron has more regular season MP than Metta World Peace, Pau Gasol, Tracy McGrady, and is breathing down Derek Fisher's neck.)

Or he might actually be nursing an injury, and the media didn't just make that up to make him seem less like a cyborg. And he is still leading the league in PER and WS/48, which if he pulls it off would make his sixth double, tying him with Jordan and leaving only Wilt and Kareem ahead with seven.

Latrinsorm

12-09-2013, 07:24 PM

The most important thing to happen in last night's Lakers game, or possibly ever:

http://s3.amazonaws.com/br-cdn/temp_images/2013/12/09/SwaggyPLOL.gif

A 360 reverse layup, through contact, that hits off the TOP CORNER of the backboard. Swaggy P forever!!!

Latrinsorm

12-09-2013, 09:26 PM

Marc Stein brought up an interesting point in today's Power Rankings (http://espn.go.com/nba/powerrankings) that I've pooh-poohed in the past: why shouldn't we take Indiana (18-3) seriously as a threat to win 70 games?

As you know, the only team to win 70+ games was the 1996 Bulls, who went 72-10. More specifically, they went...
5-1 (meh)
10-2 (go back to the Sox, you bum)
23-3 (um...)
41-4 (...whoa)
...so I'd say at 41-4, we can start taking them seriously. It's tough to do Rtgs for part of a schedule, but margin of victory is predicative, and the Bulls' in that stretch was +12.2. Indy is currently at +8.6. Second best in the NBA is a great place to be, but it's a far, far, far cry from second best record [i]of all time[i], which is what 70 wins means.

Final note: in that Bulls season, Pippen missed 5 games, Rodman missed 18(!!!). Tell me again how there's any argument against Jordan being the best player ever? Any whatsoever?

RSR

12-09-2013, 09:53 PM

Wilt Chamberlain.

No one changed the fundamental rules of the game because of anything Jordan did.

Latrinsorm

12-09-2013, 10:01 PM

The only rule I remember them changing for Wilt was the intentional foul rule, because he was so bad at free throws (not exactly a ringing endorsement). This is going off memory, but I'm pretty sure all the big man rules (goaltending, lane width, etc.) were made because Mikan was the first big guy to play basketball and people hadn't really thought through the dimensions before then.

RSR

12-09-2013, 10:29 PM

Warriorbird

12-09-2013, 10:36 PM

There's been several really great players. Seeing Michael Jordan dunk was one of the most magical sports moments of my life but I've heard good arguments for both Chamberlain and Russell.

Latrinsorm

12-10-2013, 03:44 PM

Chamberlain's impact on the game is also reflected in the fact that he was directly responsible for several rule changes in the NBA, including widening the lane to try to keep him farther away from the hoop, instituting offensive goaltending and revising rules governing inbounding the ball and shooting free throws (such as making it against the rules to inbound the ball over the backboard).[3][137] Chamberlain, who reportedly had a 50-inch vertical leap,[138] was physically capable of converting foul shots via a slam dunk without a running start (beginning his movement at the top of the key).[139] When his dunks practically undermined the difficulty of a foul shot, both the NCAA[140] and the NBA banned his modus operandiI looked it up (http://www.nba.com/analysis/rules_history.html) and it turns out the lane was widened twice, once for Mikan (from a patently absurd 6 feet to 12) and once for Chamberlain (from 12 to 16). Logically, that makes Chamberlain only 2/3 as overpowering as Mikan.

They don't include goaltending on that site, but according to this one (http://www.rauzulusstreet.com/basketball/nba/nbahistory.htm) it was banned in 1945 for D (along with instituting the 3 second violation) and 1958 for O: Wilt didn't enter the NBA until 1959, Mikan started in the NBL in 1946.

I've heard the dunking foul shots story before, and it's always been a little ridiculous, but even more so that they claim he did so without a running start. This is a pretty straightforward physics problem:

y axis
h = 10 feet + 9.5 inches (diameter of the ball) - 9 feet 6 inches (wilt's reach) = 2 feet 1.5 inches
a = -32 feet per second per second
h = v0 * t + 1/2 * a * t^2

v0 can be solved for by using his vertical leap of 50":
vf = 0
vf^2 = v0^2 + 2 * a * h
v0^2 = 2 * 32 * 50/12
v0 = 16.3 feet per second

2'1.5" = 16.3' * t - 16' * t ^ 2
16' * t ^ 2 - 16.3' * t + 2'1.5" = 0
t = 0.865 or 0.153 seconds, obviously we use the larger one because he would be on the way down, not the way up.

x axis
t still = 0.865
d = 13 feet from the line to the rim
v = 15 feet per second

Do you know a lot of people that walk a mile in under 6 minutes? And this is a conservative estimate, he'd have to be moving faster once air resistance and having to carry Paul Arizin up and down the floor all night are factored in. Plus, he wouldn't be able to reach his max vertical leap if some of his energy was devoted to pushing off in the horizontal direction.

Conclusion: tall tale.

Warriorbird

12-10-2013, 05:18 PM

I looked it up (http://www.nba.com/analysis/rules_history.html) and it turns out the lane was widened twice, once for Mikan (from a patently absurd 6 feet to 12) and once for Chamberlain (from 12 to 16). Logically, that makes Chamberlain only 2/3 as overpowering as Mikan.

They don't include goaltending on that site, but according to this one (http://www.rauzulusstreet.com/basketball/nba/nbahistory.htm) it was banned in 1945 for D (along with instituting the 3 second violation) and 1958 for O: Wilt didn't enter the NBA until 1959, Mikan started in the NBL in 1946.

I've heard the dunking foul shots story before, and it's always been a little ridiculous, but even more so that they claim he did so without a running start. This is a pretty straightforward physics problem:

y axis
h = 10 feet + 9.5 inches (diameter of the ball) - 9 feet 6 inches (wilt's reach) = 2 feet 1.5 inches
a = -32 feet per second per second
h = v0 * t + 1/2 * a * t^2

v0 can be solved for by using his vertical leap of 50":
vf = 0
vf^2 = v0^2 + 2 * a * h
v0^2 = 2 * 32 * 50/12
v0 = 16.3 feet per second

2'1.5" = 16.3' * t - 16' * t ^ 2
16' * t ^ 2 - 16.3' * t + 2'1.5" = 0
t = 0.865 or 0.153 seconds, obviously we use the larger one because he would be on the way down, not the way up.

x axis
t still = 0.865
d = 13 feet from the line to the rim
v = 15 feet per second

Do you know a lot of people that walk a mile in under 6 minutes? And this is a conservative estimate, he'd have to be moving faster once air resistance and having to carry Paul Arizin up and down the floor all night are factored in. Plus, he wouldn't be able to reach his max vertical leap if some of his energy was devoted to pushing off in the horizontal direction.

Conclusion: tall tale.

Is it? There are things that happen on the court I wouldn't believe. I saw Jordan float backwards from half court and dunk on Detlef Schrempf. Chamberlain could do amazing things.

Latrinsorm

12-10-2013, 06:15 PM

Dr. J and Michael could jump pretty high, and they barely made foul line dunks with a full court of steam. The idea a 250 pound guy could take two steps and launch himself 13 feet is just ludicrous. Guys at the NFL combine struggle to get past 11', and they're each taking enough steroids to kill an ox.

Warriorbird

12-10-2013, 07:11 PM

Latrinsorm

12-10-2013, 07:26 PM

Scoring 100 points isn't that hard, Kobe scored 81 and he's barely a Hall of Famer. (:D) Even if it had been with a 16 foot lane, it's just a matter of persistence. You can't determination yourself past gravity.

Latrinsorm

12-10-2013, 08:39 PM

The outcome of the game won't matter, so the outcome of a quarter certainly doesn't matter. I'm just saying...

Roy Hibbert, 9 points on 4/6 and 1/2
Paul George, 0 points on 0/3 and 0/0, 0 assists to 2 turnovers

IT'S NOT ROCKET SCIENCE. The Heat have at least one guy who can defend George, more depending on how you feel about Wade and Battier (so far this season, I would say "not great"). The Heat have 0 guys who can defend Hibbert, and the guys they do have are critical to the offense and therefore hurt a lot to have in foul trouble. Bosh provides crucial spacing with the jumper, Andersen with movement, and most importantly they keep Joel Anthony out of the offense.

It would drive me crazy if I was Roy Hibbert. He must be a pretty good dude not to be lighting up the Twitter with complaints. Every time I watch the Pacers he's busting his butt to get good post position (on top of busting his butt to defend, rebound, screen, pass...), only for his perimeter players to ignore him over and over and over. It's inconceivable.

In summary, thanks Frank! Really appreciate it! -Heat fans

Latrinsorm

12-10-2013, 08:45 PM

One more thing:

Miami has Cole/Wade/Allen/Lewis/Birdman out there, Indy has CJ/Orlando/Lance/Scola/Mahinmi. Scola just picked up about 9 fouls. You have to go to Copeland here. He and Lewis can take turns not defending each other and jacking up 3s, and the Indy lineup is shaky on spacing already. It's too early to bring back West, just go to Copeland. Just do it.

Latrinsorm

12-10-2013, 08:46 PM

He brought West in.

Frank Vogel, I will find you.

Keller

12-10-2013, 11:10 PM

Has Lebron entered his Kobe stage?

He isn't quite the volume shooter Kobe is, but that airball three at the end of the fourth quarter was the kind of heave a soon-to-be volume shooter puts up to try to will his team back into the ballgame.

Latrinsorm

12-11-2013, 03:41 PM

I assume from the highlights and box score that the game had very questionable officiating. Miami is excellent at forcing turnovers and Indiana is mediocre at not having them, but 13 between David West and Paul George? And it seemed like LeBron and Wade missed 12 layups, Roy Hibbert is good but he's not that good. It was also frustrating to see Hibbert lead the way offensively and defensively and Paul George get the interview put on Sportscenter. Payback for Roy calling out the media last year?

And in the end, if Miami goes merely 29% from 3, the game goes to overtime. Then again, if Paul George had accepted a spot-up role in the first half the Pacers might have won by 15. True story: all 4 of Paul George's made field goals were assisted. You can't be a perimeter guy and go 1-on-5 against Miami.
Has Lebron entered his Kobe stage?

He isn't quite the volume shooter Kobe is, but that airball three at the end of the fourth quarter was the kind of heave a soon-to-be volume shooter puts up to try to will his team back into the ballgame.LeBron's USG last night and for the season are 30.1%. That's pretty high (7th in the league), but is the lowest for LeBron since 2005. I have mentioned before how his AST/TOV ratio is uncharacteristically not great this season (a trend that continued last night with 6 to 5) but his FGA/AST ratio of 2.46 is right in line with last year, which was the second lowest (best) of his career. Kobe being Kobe is in the 4-5 range. It's not close.

Latrinsorm

12-11-2013, 07:01 PM

Today's incredible but true stat:

As of Dec. 15th 2012, the Knicks were 18-5, the Heat were 2 games back at 15-6.

Just throwing that out there.

Latrinsorm

12-14-2013, 04:22 PM

Lakers go on a 3 game losing streak exactly coinciding with Kobe Bryant's return. Obviously the solution is to trade that bum Pau (http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/story/_/id/10136638/los-angeles-lakers-want-pau-gasol-considering-trade-comments-poor-play). "Particularly" important are his defensive struggles.

Laker DRtg with Pau: 109.2. That's bad, for sure.
Laker DRtg without Pau: 136.2. That's almost inconceivably bad, and at 708 possessions it's worse than the worst defenses in NBA history to a statistically significant degree.
(Laker DRtg with Pau and without Kobe: 108.2. Just saying.)

Another comment is that Pau's play is "subpar". 15.7 PER = above average, thanks anyways. His points per game are low because he's only getting 30 minutes a game, whose fault is that? His points per 36 are only 0.4 below his Laker average of 17.6.

Meanwhile Kobe's putting up the worst shooting, scoring, and passing numbers of his career, but let's talk about how he's an important "ally and defender" for Gasol. That Kobe's such a good teammate! Don't make me puke.

Latrinsorm

12-15-2013, 02:05 PM

Watched the last two Rockets games, and I think I figured out Dwight's issues in the post: he can't dribble and move at the same time. Just dribbling, he's okay. Just moving, he's excellent (footwork, fakes, touch). It's when he tries to put the two together that he ends up with turnovers, line drive hook shots, etc. This happens a lot because he's not big enough to easily establish deep post position where he doesn't need to dribble, and he's not like Roy Hibbert in that he'll commit to doing so even though he goes long stretches without the ball. (Roy Hibbert of course is big enough to easily establish deep post position, making it all the more frustrating that Indiana ignores him.) Hence his production being up since leaving the Lakers: keep feeding him and he'll keep working. Stop, and he has no problem demonstratively abandoning you.

Speaking of the Lakers and bad passing, Kobe drives me crazy. He spends the first half whipping balls at Pau's waist and (again, demonstratively) showing him up when he failed to catch them. In the second half he starts lofting high ones, which astonishingly is super effective because it turns out PAU IS HUGE and Al Jefferson is not. Kevin Garnett was already old in 2012, but he tore up the Heat with simple rolls to the basket and keeping his hands high. This is, has always been, and will always be a big man's game, it's really not that complicated.

Now, which guy is criticized for being a bad teammate, Kobe or Dwight? espn headline: "Kobe leads Lakers". smh

Latrinsorm

12-15-2013, 02:09 PM

Another interesting point from the Rockets game: Patrick Beverley was drafted by the Lakers, traded to the Heat for $$$ and a 2011 2nd rounder, then waived by said Heat. I'm sure these kind of stories happen relatively frequently, but both teams would obviously be a lot stronger if they had kept him: 3 point range, strong defender, a little on the combo guard side but still a very credible point player.

Atlanteax

12-18-2013, 10:48 AM

Where's Latrin's praise of Kobe for the Lakers victory over the Grizzlies?

Keller

12-18-2013, 02:06 PM

REPORT: LeBron is a game time decision for tonight's game with the #Pacers (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Pacers&src=hash). If he can't go, 3 extra refs will be signed to take his place.

Latrinsorm

12-18-2013, 03:58 PM

Where's Latrin's praise of Kobe for the Lakers victory over the Grizzlies?21 points on 12 shots, 9 boards, ast/tov rate of 1 is still worrisome but not terrible, and 3 blocks catch the eye. Oh, were those Pau's numbers that were better than Kobe's? My bad.

There have been 48 NBA player-seasons with at least 4 turnovers per game since turnovers were first recorded in 1978. However, the distribution is not even: 15 were in the first 3 years, there have been 0 since 2008. Kobe's 5.7 would be the most by a wide margin, topping Peter Press Maravich's 5.0 in 1978. His only recording 6.3 assists per game would be the lowest of any >4TOV since... Kobe Bryant, 2005. (Also Richard Jefferson.) He would also be the oldest by far to record >4TOV at 35, the next oldest is Allen Iverson who at 31 recorded 7.2 assists to 4.1 turnovers.

Trust me, you want to give it a little more time before we start talking about how great Kobe's comeback is.

Keller

12-18-2013, 08:50 PM

Lebron needs to get back to the midwest ASAP to stop behaving like a little faggot.

http://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net/photos/large/828320386.gif?1387413031

Latrinsorm

12-19-2013, 03:52 PM

I figured you were going to link the Paul George flop and say "see? they play the HEAT so much bad habits are rubbing off on them."

The officiating was mostly bad (and I don't know where they found that 3rd guy, he looked about 12 years old), but I think there was an underlying element that explains a lot of the apparent inconsistency: they weren't calling most body hits. CJ Watson getting creamed - no problem. Wade and LeBron getting bumped on every drive to the basket - no problem. LeBron lifting Paul George like a ballerina on the last shot - no problem. Hibbert slapping Bosh's arm - 5th foul. That's not the actual rules, obviously, but it was at least consistent both ways.

Bigger picture stuff:

I couldn't believe this when Doug Collins said it, but the Pacers bench has gotten even worse in terms of points per game, dropping from 26 to 24. Losing Tyler Hansbrough alone should have been worth about 5 points a game, but no. Going second level, the Pacer starters are averaging 165.9 mp/g compared to 163.4 last year, but that's not much of a change, and is certainly overwhelmed by their pace increasing to 92.5 from 90.2. What's going on here?

1. CJ Watson has been really bad. He's barely shooting better overall than DJ Augustin, and his effective FG% is worse. It turns out Augustin actually had a respectable AST/TOV ratio of 2.5, and Watson's has only been 2.25.

2. While Scola is better in almost every way than Hansbrough (passing, shooting, moving, rebounding, dribbling), it turns out old Tyler drew fouls at an astonishing rate (until you remember how much fun it must be to foul Tyler Hansbrough). The only guys to play 1000+ MP last year and have a higher FTr than Hansbrough's .737 were Reggie Evans at .851 and Dwight Howard at .887, and Hansbrough can actually hit free throws. The idea that the Pacers are feeling the scoring loss of Augustin and Hansbrough is just... I don't even know.

3. Ian Mahinmi took a huge step back, taking half the FGAs/game and making a third of the FGs. It's hard to score that way, although he's getting fouled a ton.

4. Orlando Johnson is (still) not a credible NBA player, and (still) gets PT over Chris Copeland. Whatever. I've talked a lot about how much of a bum Danny Granger is, but no matter how grumpy he is about coming off the bench he'll have to be more productive than Orlando Johnson.

.

I saw a great defensive play from Rashard Lewis: rotate on time into the paint to help on one of the 10,000 Hibbert/West rolls, rotate on time back to his man in the corner. Doug also mentioned how he had mysterious knee treatment in the offseason, whatever the reason is it's vital that he doesn't take too much away on the defensive side now that Haslem is out of the rotation. I expected him to fill in for Miller's shooting, but if he can bring the Heat 10 deep that's outstanding for a season where we want to rest guys as much as possible. It also raises the possibility of going big when Wade gets a night off: Chalmers, Battier, LeBron, Lewis, Bosh. Watching Battier stagger after SGs can't be any worse than watching him getting crushed by PFs, right? And even though the lineup is large, there's still plenty of shooting.

.

One of the reasons I don't take regular season matchups too seriously: the Heat are a combined 9 of 48 from 3 (18.8%), and most of them have been good looks (LeBron heat checks not so much). David West is a combined 14 of 23 (60.9%), and most of them have been ridiculous looks. These things even out to a much greater degree in a 7 game series: last year the Heat shot .396 and the Pacers allowed .327, so with an average of .359 we'd expect .364 when they met, and in the ECF the Heat in fact shot .380. It's a fact that the Pacers are very, very good defending the 3, but this only goes so far, especially when the Heat are very, very good at taking the 3.

.

Paul George defends very well on the ball, but I noticed multiple lapses off the ball last night. His on/off defensive splits are 96.5 to 104.3, which is great, but as I've mentioned before we see a different picture controlling for Roy Hibbert. He's only been on the court without George for 78 possessions, which is a worthless sample size, but George has been on the court without Roy for 388, and the Pacer DRtg then is only 101.8. "Only" is still 5th best in the league, the main takeaway here is that the Pacers are really good at defense in part due to Paul George, but a lot more due to Roy Hibbert. Paul George gets more love because (1) he is one of 2 or 3 guys who can stand in front of LeBron and (2) as always, no one roots for Goliath, which is a real shame. I don't understand how I'm the biggest Roy Hibbert fan on this board, and I really don't understand how I'm a bigger Hibbert fan than Frank Vogel, but I'll take it.

Latrinsorm

12-22-2013, 03:07 PM

Kawhi Leonard continues to not take the next step, despite breathless insistence that he is San Antonio's next superstar / franchise star / Big 3 / etc.

First of all, San Antonio only ever went as far as Tim Duncan could take them, which is why they won titles from 1999-2007 and that's it. Duncan's worst year was 2011. SA got bounced in the first round. Not complicated. Everyone loves Tony Parker because his floaters are works of art, but he has never led the Spurs in playoff WS. Leonard, Duncan, Ginobili * 2, Duncan * 4, Ginobili, Duncan * 4, Robinson, Duncan, Avery Johnson.

Kawhi Leonard is not the next Tim Duncan. Duncan's first three year composite per game averages: 22 pts, 12 reb, 2.8 ast, 3.2 tov, 39.0 MP. Kawhi: 10 pts, 6 reb, 1.4 ast(!!!), 0.9 tov, 27.6 MP. They are both great defenders, but you can only defend one guy at a time on the perimeter. If you can soak up everyone's drive to the interior with one guy, you don't need to rotate off shooters, which is why Indiana is so good at defending the 3 (and peak Orlando Dwight before them). Obviously it's best to have both, but if you have to pick one it's the big man every time. You can't be a superstar with perimeter defense the way you can with interior defense: Tony Allen isn't Bill Russell. Perimeter guys have to make offense.

Kawhi's offense seemed promising his first two years: 37% from 3 will definitely work, free throw rate in the 20s is a concern but he was still young (even LeBron was only in the 30s his first two years), his assists were very low but had a good 1.5 ast/tov ratio. This year his assist rate is up a bit without a disproportionate increase in turnovers, but the other two have gone in the toilet: 31% from 3 and free throw rate at 15% are not even starter numbers, forget superstar numbers. His on/off tell a similarly disappointing story:

On: 104.2 - 99.6 = +4.6
Off: 114.0 - 101.3 = +12.7(!!!)

Some of that is no doubt due to Belinelli's ridiculously hot shooting start and Green's reduced production, and like I've mentioned a couple other times even LeBron is underwater on on/off this early in the season, but it's nowhere near as dramatic as this. (LeBron's currently at about -1.5.)

.

Now, his PER is up to 18 (+1.9 over last year), which is fine except his USG is up even higher (+2.7). PER is a convenient number, but it's important to remember how susceptible it is to volume. It's not like Kawhi's in the Carmelo zone or anything, but he's not in the LeBron zone either.

Keller

12-23-2013, 11:40 AM

I figured you were going to link the Paul George flop

I hope you don't mean the uncalled flagrant II from Wade. Wade's elbow contacted George's forehead. The basketball was 18+ inches away from George's head. Wade's inappropriate action was no doubt made out of frustration. That does not excuse the intentional malice. It was a travesty that he was not removed from the basketball game, fined, or suspended. It is proof positive that the NBA is bolstering its cornerstone franchise and its demi-god GM Pat Riley. Heaven and Stern forbid some upstart team from Indiana assembled by some hick from French Lick is the best team in the NBA.

Latrinsorm

12-26-2013, 04:47 PM

Miami Heat through 28 games...
2011: 20-8
2012: 21-7
2013: 20-8
2014: 22-6

Cumulative MOV through 28 games...
2011: 282
2012: 223
2013: 137
2014: 215

LeBron is just below 36 mp/g, Wade 34, Bosh 29, all at or near career lows. Wade also on track to play 60 games. The depth of the Heat is really incredible, which is good and bad: good because Wade needs all the rest he can get, bad because the bench (nominally) only does so much in the playoffs which lessens the advantage. Still, too much depth (of team-first guys) is way better than the alternative.

Latrinsorm

12-28-2013, 05:15 PM

Bynum indefinitely suspended for conduct detrimental (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10204879/andrew-bynum-cleveland-cavaliers-suspended-trade-block), which the Cavs immediately follow up by saying "so... anyone wanna trade for him?" WHAT?

Stats /36 for this year and career:
15.1 pts, 9.5 reb, 2.1 blk, 2.1 PF
16.2 pts, 10.8 reb, 2.2 blk, 3.5 PF

The Cavs have been a terrible -13.7 with him on the court to a middling -2.4 without him, so it's not all rainbows, but still. The guy is productive, I hadn't seen any controversy about him (on the CAVS, who literally punch each other in the face), and the Cavs decide to brand him a cancer and simultaneously explore trading him? I just don't get it.

Latrinsorm

12-31-2013, 07:25 PM

Fascinating (and hilarious) story: Bynum for Pau? (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10220178/los-angeles-lakers-cleveland-cavaliers-talk-pau-gasol-andrew-bynum-trade)

1. Bynum back on the Lakers. Just... just awesome.

2. The Lakers trading their best player from 2009-2012 (n.b. the last two Laker championships were 2010 and 2011).

3. The Lakers doing so with the intention of waiving Bynum, thereby turning their best player into zilch, nada, nothing but cap flexibility. If only they had some other way of getting cap flexibility, like, I don't know, not giving $24m a year to a 35 year old shooting guard coming off a catastrophic injury.

4. The Lakers are 13th in the West at 13-18, but only 5 games out of the 8 seed, and they're 11-11 when Pau plays and Kobe doesn't.

5. The Cavs by default vaulting themselves into the 5 seed, no? And a home series, because division winners get at least a 4 seed and ain't nobody getting out of the Atlantic alive. I detailed before how the Cavs with Bynum have been an atrocious -13.7, but the Lakers with Pau are a (by comparison) sterling -6.4... 7 points per 100 is a big deal.

Good times.

Ardwen

12-31-2013, 07:30 PM

Lakers only want Bynum to cut him since his deal isnt fully guaranteed and Pau's is

Latrinsorm

01-03-2014, 08:27 PM

h/t Zach Lowe: What's the deal (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1909039-la-lakers-injury-problem-costs-millions-but-could-be-solved) with all these NBA injuries? Maybe we should have more than one doctor guy on staff for 15 guys and $60m in payroll. Maybe instead of the 19th assistant coach, we should get the 2nd doctor guy.

Consider:
A person who sleeps/eats/poops 9 hours a day can spend 1 hour per day for each member of a 15 person team.
Maybe spending 2 preventative hours a day on a certain guy would save having to spend 4 reconstructive hours a day on him, but too bad.
Now you only have 12 hours and you still have to spend it on 15 guys, because NBA teams don't go a man down for long.
Now it's even harder to squeeze in those 2-fors, and another guy gets hurt.
Now you only have 8 hours and you still have to spend it on 15 guys.
Everyone knows what happens next.

The end.

.

Just because a business has always done something a certain way (THONDALAR) doesn't mean it's a terribly bright way of doing things.

Latrinsorm

01-04-2014, 05:03 PM

'Melo for Blake? (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10233011/carmelo-anthony-blake-griffin-proposal-mulled)

How this story isn't one line long consisting of "When reached for comment, the Clippers laughed so hard they made themselves sick." is beyond me.

Facts:

1. Carmelo has never amassed 10 Win Shares in a single season, and is on track for 9.5 this year. In the LeBron era (2004-present), 57 players have combined for 139 (http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=total&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=2004&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=ws&c1comp=gt&c1val=10&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws) such seasons, 1 of which belongs to Blake Griffin (who is on track for 11.0 this year, though how that number changes with CP3's injury is anyone's guess). All told Carmelo is 20th in cumulative Win Shares since 2004, with less than half of LeBron's.

2. Carmelo's teams have won a total of 3 playoff series: 1 last year against the visibly rusting Celtics, 2 with the 2009 Nuggets when as far as Win Shares is concerned he was the 5th best player on the team after Chauncey, Nene, Birdman, and J.R. SMITH. (YES. SERIOUSLY.) Blake's teams have only won 1, and while Blake's only been in the league for 3 years instead of 10, it's fair to say that neither has demonstrated the ability to be a franchise centerpiece. This 3 to 10 also brings me to my next point:

3. Carmelo has been in the league for 10 years and amassed 29,574 combined minutes. Blake has been in for 3 years and 9,933. Carmelo is an unrestricted free agent next year, Blake is under contract for another three.

4. Carmelo being on the court has made his teams worse 3 years: 2004, 2008, 2012. The year he was traded (2011), his teams with him went 32-25 and 14-14 for a combined 54.1% winning percentage. His teams without him went 18-7 and 28-26: 58.2%. His cumulative on/off is +0.9 per 100 possessions. Blake's is +8.1. His career high season of +18.7 in 2012 is literally higher than all of Carmelo's positive years combined (+17.6).

5. Because Carmelo makes $5.1m more than Blake, the Clippers would have to send ANOTHER player to make the math work under salary cap rules, and because we're talking about the Knicks they couldn't get a first round draft pick back any earlier than 2163 (slight exaggeration).

I've spoken before how Carmelo is unlucky to have been drafted in the specific year he was, because comparisons with LeBron especially could never be anything but unfavorable. An interesting side effect I hadn't considered might be that people hear the two mentioned together often enough that they convince themselves Carmelo is an elite (albeit not all-time great) player... and he's just not. Never has been.

Latrinsorm

01-04-2014, 10:29 PM

I consulted that font of knowledge espn.com comments and saw someone compare Blake to Boozer, and thought I would run Boozer through a similar analysis as the above.

1. Boozer has one season of 10+ WS: 10.2 with the 2008 Utah Jazz.

2. Boozer for his career is -1.9 per 100 possessions on/off. Even more shockingly, he's only been positive in 3 out of 11 seasons (2004 Cavs, 2005 and 2008 Jazz).

3. Boozer's teams have won 7 playoff series, which is way more than I would have guessed. Plus, he was the highest-WS player on the 2007 Jazz (reached Conf. Finals).

4. Boozer is making a surprisingly low $15m this year and $17m next year.

In conclusion, Boozer and Carmelo is a pretty close comparison, except Boozer makes way less and is under contract for another year. This begs the question: in a lost season, should the maxed-out Bulls trade for 'Melo, then gladly let him get the heck out of town and make a run at various free agents in 2014? (Luol, Greg Monroe, potentially all of the Heatles, the greatest closing closer of all time he just knows how to make clutch shots in the clutch Rudy Gay.)

Latrinsorm

01-07-2014, 03:51 PM

Bynum (and picks!!!) for Deng (http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/88016/the-cavs-are-thinking-playoffs-the-bulls-are-thinking-ahead).

The problem for the Cavs: at 11-23, they're 13th in the East, 3 games out of the 8 spot, 4 games out of the 6 spot.

But! There's not a lot of separation from 3 to 14, so if they can get out of the 7/8 killzone they have a legitimate shot at advancing a round, which is presumably good for business.

But! Luol is not that productive a player. He has two excellent seasons on his resume (2007 - 11.0 WS, 2011 - 9.9 WS) and NBA players don't tend to get better after 23k minutes. Shockingly, Chicago has been better with him off the court for the last two season, albeit to a very slight (and statistically insignificant) degree. If we suppose he would manage a 7 WS season, prorated over the Cavs' 48 remaining games gives them another 4 wins if we assume Bynum was giving them literally nothing. That in turn changes their projection from 27 wins to 31 wins... hard to imagine that Luol alone will be enough to get them into the playoffs.

.

Easy to see why the Bulls would fold the season, but I think it's instructive to keep this in mind the next time a young player looks really good over a short stretch. In 2012 Taj Gibson looked like the power forward of the future for the Bulls, but that season is looking more and more like a fluke. In 2013 Jimmy Butler was supposed to be the savior of the Bulls' SG drought (1999-present) but his stats have plateaued. The lesson: a young guy can play well without necessarily indicating that better things are in store.

Latrinsorm

01-07-2014, 08:42 PM

A lot of talk about Bynum to Heat, but I don't think it really works.

1. Their centers are Bosh and Andersen. Each of them are extremely mobile centers, mostly because Bosh is a PF and Andersen is closer to PF than C. The Heat scheme is all about speed, from 1 to 5. Bynum has no speed. Miami's scheme would have to be completely rejiggered to suit Bynum (and possibly Oden too). This is a problem.

2. Bosh gets enormous criticism for his rebounding, but the Heat as a team get 16.2 ORB% and 74.4 DRB% with him on the court: awful and league-average. Okay, but without Bosh they're 21.5% and 73.9%: still awful and league-average.

3. The Heat are already 10 deep.
-LeBron/Bosh/Wade are absolute locks.
-Chalmers/Cole/Allen have their issues but Bynum ain't playing those positions.
-Battier/Lewis/Beasley are vaguely size matches but provide vastly different skill sets.
-That leaves Andersen, and is Bynum a dramatic improvement there?
-And even outside the rotation, there's UD (universally beloved) and Joel Anthony (universally despised but a powerful defender).

There's just no room for him in the rotation or on the books; the Heat are already way over the cap. I don't get it.

DoctorUnne

01-10-2014, 09:54 AM

Melo!

Latrinsorm

01-10-2014, 01:24 PM

I was thinking yesterday that Bynum to Indy would make a lot of sense. Here are the Pacers listed as C or PF: Hibbert, Mahinmi, West, Scola.

-Hibbert is the best center in the league.
-West is the leader of the team, a fine offensive player, and is adequate on defense but not a rim protector.
-Scola is an excellent offensive player, crafty, perfectly suited to his role, but is not a good defender.
-Copeland is clearly a SF or small ball PF, why Vogel considers him a big I'll never know, but obviously he's not anchoring a defense.

Mahinmi is a train wreck. The Pacers are net -13.3 per 100 with him, and last year they were -14.5. Some of this is because he plays behind Roy Hibbert, but still. Replacing Mahinmi with Bynum would give the Pacers' bench an instant shot in the arm as far as scoring is concerned. The Pacer system is built on bigs sinking against the pick and roll rather than sprinting all over the floor a la Miami, and Bynum can definitely stand around in the paint and contest, the guy's arms are about 20 feet long. Mahinmi's only getting 15 minutes a night, that's just right for Bynum. David West can keep anyone in line(?). It's a good match, and I hope they don't pursue it.

Latrinsorm

01-11-2014, 08:21 PM

Udonis Haslem seems like he'd be a cool guy to hang out with. Miami generally plays 4 perimeter players and 1 big, so they only need 2 bigs in the rotation, so when Chris Andersen got to Miami Udonis' days were numbered. They gave him another shot this year but it was just obvious, so Andersen basically took Haslem's job... and yet! When Andersen checks out of the game, Haslem is not only up off the bench to greet him, but they even have a special handshake! You don't see that kind of team spirit from every NBA player, it's refreshing.

Latrinsorm

01-15-2014, 04:53 PM

An odd little trade went down today.

Miami Heat get...
Toney Douglas

Golden State Warriors get...
Jordan Crawford
MarShon Brooks

Boston Celtics get...
Joel Anthony
two draft picks, one definitely a second rounder and one probably a second rounder

Miami:
First of all they save money, because Toney Douglas makes $1.6m this year and that's it, while Joel Anthony makes $3.8m this year and has a player option for the same next year. $2.2m doesn't sound like a big deal, but because of the cap and blah blah blah it works out to be a pretty good chunk of change. Plus, the Heat only have two traditional big men in the rotation (Chris Bosh and Chris Andersen), the result being that Anthony played 37 minutes so far this year. Not 37 minutes per game, just 37 minutes. If Bosh or Andersen were to go down, the Heat still have Udonis Haslem to soak up minutes as a traditional big, and he was ahead of Anthony on the depth chart anyway.

Toney Douglas is only 27, which surprised me, and Mario Chalmers has Achilles tendinitis. I have had the same, and it's really friggin' annoying even being a mostly sedentary guy. Trying to play basketball for a living with it is just impossible. The Heat have only carried 2 point guards on their roster starting in LeBron's second year, after they realized that Carlos Arroyo then Mike Bibby and Eddie House was not really a great plan, and if Chalmers is going to be out for significant time (has missed the last 3.5 games) then another point guard is crucial. This need is even further exacerbated if they continue to rest Wade, which they obviously are going to do. Douglas is about 3/4 point guard to 1/4 shooting guard so it would be a stretch to play 2, but Roger Mason has been pretty bad and Ray Allen isn't getting any younger.

All told it's a no-downside probable-upside (basketball) and definite-upside (financial) move for the Heat.

Golden State:
I'm not sure what they're thinking. I've seen sources alleging that they're looking for guard depth, but Douglas is absolutely a credible backup guard. Jordan Crawford is a volume scorer with poor shooting % and (before this year) very poor ast/tov ratio for a guard. He is only 25, but looking at this year there's no question he's a downgrade from Douglas. MarShon Brooks is a huge question mark. Also 25, so far in his career he's a guard that can't shoot, can't pass, and for all his athleticism is a trainwreck on defense. He was a borderline rotation player on last year's Nets team and didn't even get that much PT on this year's Celtics team. The Warriors also go further in the red salary-wise, but both players are free agents after this year. Surprisingly, Golden State so far this year is an elite defensive team and a middling offensive team, and they have definitely downgraded at offense with this trade. Kent Bazemore is no Steve Kerr, but neither is MarShon Brooks.

All told I don't see the point for GS.

Boston:
They get picks, but they're not going to be really good picks. They get a strong defender, but their defense has been nearly average already. It's offense that's their trouble, and Joel Anthony is just awful at offense. They've just barely taken on salary for this year and significantly for next year (they're already on the hook for $47m now). The return of Rondo does make a guard slot expendable, but still. If they wanted to lose more they could have just benched Crawford, I don't get the point of this trade for them either.

DoctorUnne

01-16-2014, 08:56 PM

Warriorbird

01-16-2014, 09:00 PM

My students made fun of the Heat and the Cowboys today. It was a good day.

Latrinsorm

01-16-2014, 09:22 PM

What a surprise... Latrin saying the trade was good for the Heat and bad for everyone else. If all I did to follow basketball this year was read this thread I'd think the Heat were the reincarnation of the '09 Lakers or something.Well, can you offer an explanation for why the trade is good for either GS or Boston?

And since you mention it, the Heat have a lot in common with those Laker teams:
1. 2x champions, 3 straight Finals appearances
2. A criminally underappreciated big man (Pau and Bosh)
3. The best shooting guard of his era (Kobe and Wade)
4. An offensive system that eschews traditional point or post play in favor of ball-dominant wing players.
5. Won their first title with ease against a too-young phenom (Dwight and Durant), barely scraped out a second title against a geriatric former champion (Cs and Spurs).
6. Were pushed to seven games by a team no one gave a chance (Rockets and Pacers).

Latrinsorm

01-18-2014, 02:36 PM

Durant goes for 54 on 39 touches. Good stuff. Bill Simmons lists out the 11 guys who have gone for 60+ since 1980, and before their name is their ppg rank of players since 1980:

(15) Bernard King
(11) Bird
(1) Jordan
(8) Karl Malone
(a lot) Tom Chambers
(22) Robinson
(13) Shaq
(38) McGrady
(4) Iverson
(6) Kobe
(28) Arenas

Chambers is 97th all-time and I didn't feel like checking that far down, the point is only 5 of the top 11 points per game guys had these extreme games. The other guys in that top 11: LeBron, Durant, Gervin, Carmelo, Dominique, Wade. An interesting mix on both sides of gunners and playmakers, no? It seems like once a certain level of talent is reached, getting to 60 is as much luck as anything else.

Latrinsorm

01-18-2014, 10:27 PM

Here is a ridiculous thing:

LeBron and the Heat in general are obviously coasting.
LeBron is averaging 25, 6, and 6.
If he keeps it up, this will make his 10th season doing so.
Oscar Robertson did so for 9 seasons.
Bird 4.
Jordan 3.
Havlicek 2.
Rick Barry, Drexler, Guerin, Jerry West 1 a piece.

Or:
This season's LeBron is doing something no one else has done since 1992.
This season's LeBron will establish a career amount that no one in NBA history can match.
This season's LeBron will establish a career amount higher than every single player in NBA history put together (except Bird and the Big O).

And he's coasting.

.

Just throwing this out there: Westbrook has missed 15 games for the Thunder, Wade has missed 10 for the Heat.

Keller

01-19-2014, 12:53 PM

Latrinsorm

01-19-2014, 02:41 PM

With Paul George's superlative-laden 360 windmill dunk in a gamelast night, I think we've officially ended the era of "is Lebron the next Michael?"

The next great player has arrived, folks. Move over Lebron. Time for PG to show you how to win 'ships like the greatest of all time did.The Bulls never won a championship when Michael was the second best player on his team, though. Also, during the first three-peat Michael was already above 2 ast/tov and around 4 fga/ast; after showing signs in those categories last season George has retrogressed to 1.4 and 4.9. Finally, George's PER this year is 22.8, which is very good, but Michael's lowest in a full Bulls season was 25.2.

I would put the Paul George comp thus far to Sidney Moncrief from that era. I would hope that unlike the Squid (injuries), this year will not be a peak for George but a sustainable level of play for at least a few more years. I also think the door is a lot more open for the Pacers than it was for the Bucks, who had to deal with the 76ers and Celtics of the 80s, then the Pistons and Bulls as Sid's career wound down.

Keller

01-19-2014, 11:19 PM

The Bulls never won a championship when Michael was the second best player on his team, though. Also, during the first three-peat Michael was already above 2 ast/tov and around 4 fga/ast; after showing signs in those categories last season George has retrogressed to 1.4 and 4.9. Finally, George's PER this year is 22.8, which is very good, but Michael's lowest in a full Bulls season was 25.2.

I agree that George is not yet on Michael's level. But I think we can both agree that he is the closest to Michael's level in the NBA today.

With players like George, Durant, Irving, Curry, Love, and Harden, the NBA has its brightest set of stars in a long, long time.

Latrinsorm

01-20-2014, 12:30 AM

Keller

01-20-2014, 12:08 PM

The thing people always forget about Michael is how well-rounded a player he was. Being #1 in points per game all time is pretty good, but he's also one of exactly 9 players to have >6 rpg and >5 apg for a career:

rpg apg Name
6.15 5.64 Clyde Drexler*
6.27 8.69 Jason Kidd
10.00 6.35 Larry Bird*
7.23 6.91 LeBron James
7.24 11.19 Magic Johnson*
6.22 5.25 Michael Jordan*
7.50 9.51 Oscar Robertson*
6.51 5.06 Rick Barry*
6.36 5.21 Scottie Pippen*

Paul George: 6.3, 3.5 this year. All told, LeBron this year gives you more points, rebounds, and assists in 46 more seconds per game. For 1.6 more USG he gives you 6.2(!) more PER, +1 WS. Paul George isn't the guy.

Lebron is in his prime. He is not Michael. We have answered the "Is Lebron the next Michael?" question with a definitive no. Not only are Lebron's stats not on par with MJ, but 2 championships is not 6. And Lebron isn't winning another one unless he finds younger, more talented sidekicks, or the Pacers and half of the western conference is ravaged by injuries.

George is not in his prime. He can still become Michael. The next question in the NBA is "Is Paul George the next Michael?" Paul George has enjoyed greater success at a younger age than MJ did. There is no indication he cannot surpass Lebron, possibly in terms of individual accomplishments, but absolutely in team accomplishments. So the next question is - will Paul George surpass MJ?

The next great superstar has arrived - we all all witness.

Latrinsorm

01-20-2014, 04:44 PM

Well, you can say LeBron's stats are not on par with MJ, but if we do (player PER / Michael PER) * (player WS/48 / Michael WS/48) we get the following top 20:

0.962 LeBron James
0.937 David Robinson*
0.927 Wilt Chamberlain*
0.903 Chris Paul
0.852 Neil Johnston*
0.803 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*
0.787 Shaquille O'Neal
0.776 Magic Johnson*
0.772 Bob Pettit*
0.762 Charles Barkley*
0.747 Tim Duncan
0.703 Dwyane Wade
0.702 Karl Malone*
0.699 Dirk Nowitzki
0.699 Jerry West*
0.692 Kevin Durant
0.686 Oscar Robertson*
0.683 Larry Bird*
0.659 Yao Ming
0.652 John Stockton*

Pretty heady company, and LeBron heads them all. It seems easy, you imagine, for LeBron's stats to gravitate unwaveringly downward as he finishes his career, but Michael put up 25+ PER all the way through 1998. If he can avoid chronic injury (a la Bird), which seems probable given he is an indestructible basketball cyborg, there's no reason to believe he can't have a similarly graceful aging curve. This is even more likely given his development of a 3 point shot and once-in-a-generation passing ability, neither of which suffer from aging the way driving or defense do.

The thing about being the next Jordan is you have to excel on entry into the NBA. In Jordan's first three years (not first three full years):

-.763 MVP share
-31/5/5 average on 49% from the field
-led the league in WS

Compared with George:

-0 MVP share
-12/5/2 on 43%
-has yet to finish higher than third in WS... on his own team. (This is another reason why your comparing the two based on team playoff success is ill-advised.)

Even if we count 2011 as a third college year (evening him with Michael), he's not getting .763 share this year, his averages would be 16/6/3 43%, and while he'll probably lead the Pacers in WS he won't lead the league.

.

I advise you to stick with Sidney Moncrief.

Keller

01-20-2014, 09:31 PM

You can cherry pick all the stats in the world to reach some contrived conclusion that only you believe.

Michael >>> Lebron.

Michael<?> Paul George.

Those are the facts.

Warriorbird

01-20-2014, 09:38 PM

You can cherry pick all the stats in the world to reach some contrived conclusion that only you believe.

Michael >>> Lebron.

Michael<?> Paul George.

Those are the facts.

Pretty much. The only legitimate arguments for "better than Jordan" played before he did.

Latrinsorm

01-20-2014, 10:20 PM

You can cherry pick all the stats in the world to reach some contrived conclusion that only you believe.

Michael >>> Lebron.

Michael<?> Paul George.

Those are the facts.I'm reasonably sure I'm the not the only person who believes Paul George is behind Michael Jordan at the respective points in their careers.

SHAFT

01-20-2014, 11:16 PM

I'm reasonably sure I'm the not the only person who believes Paul George is behind Michael Jordan at the respective points in their careers.

I second that latrin. Obviously Keller is sipping on some koolaid.

Keller

01-21-2014, 01:24 PM

I'm reasonably sure I'm the not the only person who believes Paul George is behind Michael Jordan at the respective points in their careers.

How many playoff games had MJ won through his first three years in the NBA? I'll save you the trouble and let you know it was 1. 1 playoff game for the greatest champion of all time.

By comparison, Paul George has won 18.

Taking into account that Paul George is 18 times more successful than MJ in the post-season at the respective points in their careers, and that Paul George has shown significantly more growth as a player in each year as a professional than MJ did any of his first three years, it is not hard to see why Paul George has the best shot to rival MJ than any player in the last 25 years.

But by all means, continue to take the square root of the sum of whichever advanced stats you choose, ignoring any individual year you wish to exclude for convenience, to reach a contrived conclusion.

Latrinsorm

01-21-2014, 02:32 PM

How many playoff games had MJ won through his first three years in the NBA? I'll save you the trouble and let you know it was 1. 1 playoff game for the greatest champion of all time.Wrong: 0.
By comparison, Paul George has won 18.Wrong again: 0.
Taking into account that Paul George is 18 times more successful than MJ in the post-season at the respective points in their careers, and that Paul George has shown significantly more growth as a player in each year as a professional than MJ did any of his first three years, it is not hard to see why Paul George has the best shot to rival MJ than any player in the last 25 years.

But by all means, continue to take the square root of the sum of whichever advanced stats you choose, ignoring any individual year you wish to exclude for convenience, to reach a contrived conclusion.The year I left out made Paul George's case better, not worse. This is usually a useful tactic in debate: make your opponent's case better than they can make it, and show how it still fails to make their point. It becomes somewhat less useful when your opponent is not, in fact, debating.

Keller

01-21-2014, 02:48 PM

I am not a statistical wizard slash manipulator like you, so maybe I'm just missing something, but could you explain how leaving out Jordan's second year, in which he had the worst statistics of his career, make Paul George's case better?

Latrinsorm

01-21-2014, 02:52 PM

I didn't leave out Jordan's second year. That's why I said not first three full years.

And I'll thank you not to bandy about my abilities at manipulating slash fiction on a public forum.

Keller

01-21-2014, 03:21 PM

Good - I'm glad you've got at least that much statistical honesty.

So back to the PG's improvement vs. MJ's improvement, from his first to his third year, MJ improve his PPG by 31%, but reduced both his APG and RPG by 20+%. By comparison, Paul George improved his scoring by 123%, his rebounding by 105%, and his assists by a mind boggling 272% from his first to his third year. Based on his year-over-year improvement, if Paul George continues to improve at that pace (and there is very little evidence to suggest he will not), he will be averaging 193.2 ppg, 65.9 RPG, and 212.3 APG by the time he is 34. Hard to imagine he's not the best player in NBA history if he even achieves 15% of that improvement, which is a very low bar.

Latrinsorm

01-21-2014, 04:01 PM

I will concede Paul George has matched Michael Jordan when he posts 193/65/212 per game, certainly.

.

New topic: is Chris Paul the best guard since Michael Jordan? Note his position on the leaderboard above: .903, next highest guards are Dwyane Wade at .703 and Stock at .652 (obviously Jerry West played before MJ) (because he was scared). By far the best, and no one else is even close.

MVPs awarded to guards since 1998: Derrick Rose, Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash (2), Allen Iverson... but we know that none of those MVPs were deserved, and should have gone to LeBron, Chris Paul, Chauncey, Amar'e, and Shaq respectively. That puts Chris Paul as tied for the most oughta-MVPs of every guard since MJ even if we give 2005 Nash the nod.

Finals MVPs awarded to guards since 1998: Kobe Bryant (2), Tony Parker, Dwyane Wade, Chauncey Billups... but we know that Pau Gasol should have gotten both FMVPs for the Lakers. The lack of team success with Paul is troubling, but let's compare those guards who deserved more FMVPs than him in those transcendent seasons:

Ray Allen 2008 - +3.3 on/off, 3rd in regular season WS, 18 career PER. Need I say more?
Tony Parker 2007 - +3.1 on/off, 3rd in WS, 19 PER. Do I have to repeat myself, mummy?
Dwyane Wade 2006 - +15.2 on/off, 1st in WS, 25 PER. Okay. That is actually impressive. More on this later.
Manu Ginobili 2005 - +17.2 on/off, 2nd in WS (narrowly), 21 PER. Another worthy candidate.
Chauncey Billups 2004 - +2.8 on/off, 1st in WS, 18 PER. Not going to get it done.
(More impressive is his '05 campaign, which probably deserved the Jerry West treatment of a losing team's player getting the FMVP: +7.0, still 1st.)

It really comes down to Chris Paul vs. Chauncey, with Wade being a dark horse Larry Bird style candidate - a degenerative condition robbed each player of the longevity normally associated with greatness (Bird with a 6 year stretch of 24+ PER, Wade with the 5 and then 3 with LeBron). Manu had a great year, but his late start was too much to overcome. Here are the career on/offs (2001-present):

Paul - 9.0
Wade - 8.5
Manu - 7.5
Kobe - 6.8
Allen - 5.3
Parker - 3.5
Chauncey - 3.3

I'm going with Paul unless and until the good Lord deigns to let us in on the alternate reality where Marquette had doctors instead of bonesaws and leeches.

Keller

01-21-2014, 04:07 PM

I will concede Paul George has matched Michael Jordan

Glad you came around.

Warriorbird

01-21-2014, 04:12 PM

http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/19d8k16h2tc9agif/ku-xlarge.gif

Latrinsorm

01-22-2014, 06:41 PM

Keller

01-22-2014, 07:20 PM

J.A. Adande raised this question today: what if the Pacers make a run at 70 wins? The Pacers are currently 33-7, and would therefore have to go 37-5 to finish at 70-12. Last year, the Heat had the second longest winning streak of any team in NBA history, employed the unanimous MVP, the greatest shooting guard since Michael Jordan, the power forward most resembling an ostrich since 1955, plucked the second most productive center in the league off the scrap heap... and finished 38-4. I wouldn't bet on it, fellas.

George Hill and Chalmers are a wash.
Lance is better than Wade at this point in their careers.
Paul George and Lebron are a wash.
David West is much more dominant than Chris Bosh.
And there isn't a center in the league, let alone on the soft Heat team, that can compete with Hibbert.

Comparing their benches, Mahimi would be the best center on Miami's roster. Granger is the best bench player of the bunch, although the utility of Miller/Allen/Battier's range is a serious advantage. Anderson is a high energy guy, which is definitely something that Indiana lacks. Watson and Cole are a wash.

So Indiana has the better SG, PF, and C. The bench is probably in Indiana's favor, but we'll call it a wash for the sake of argument. Indiana could absolutely break 70 wins. The chances are not good, but if an inferior Miami team could pull off a run like that last year, then this superior Indiana absolutely could.

Latrinsorm

01-22-2014, 08:14 PM

Objectively speaking, you grossly overestimate the 2014 production of Mahinmi, Granger, George, and Hibbert. Mahinmi's putting up Kendrick Perkins numbers, for God's sake. Granger's shooting 30% from 3, has almost as many turnovers as assists, mediocre rebounding (155th out of the 318 players to play 300+ minutes). Hibbert is absolutely the best center in the league, but the Pacers refuse to give him touches, limiting his production to levels that Bosh can match.

Latrinsorm

01-23-2014, 06:37 PM

I'm always complaining about how the Pacers don't get Roy the ball more, but watching the game yesterday reminded me of why that is: they can't make entry passes to the deep post.

-We think of George Hill as a San Antonio fundamentals guy, but he is miserable at it (and several other fundamentals things, frankly).
-Lance... Lance is not reliable.
-Paul George, as I have mentioned before, has regressed this season as far as setting other guys up.
-David West can do a good scissor pass from the foul line, but if the opposition isn't fronting Roy or fronts West then that option goes away.
-Ironically, Roy is very adept at making entry passes.

Of course, the Pacers and Suns made a trade in the offseason with Scola going to Indy and Green and Plumlee (and a pick) going to Phoenix. At the time this seemed like a great move: Green was terrible, Plumlee wasn't playing, Scola was a bona fide NBA player for a bench desperately in need of them... but the results have been very Phoenix-sided.

1. Scola has had >100 ORtgs every year of his career but this one. His points / 36 are down, his turnovers are way up, his assists and on/off are way down. Some of the ± is probably from being a bench player rather than a starter, but -10.1 year over year is more than that.

2. Green had bounced around and generally been mediocre, but last year he was awful. He could never pass, then last year he forgot how to shoot, and guards who can do neither without being transcendent defenders are not long for the league. This year he's rediscovered the stroke and thoroughly embraced the 3 ball, has raised his passing above catastrophically poor levels, and all told is +8.5 year over year in on/off.

3. Plumlee only played 55 minutes last year, stuck behind Roy Hibbert and Ian Mahinmi. 55 minutes is obviously no sample size at all, but this year he's played 1145 minutes and performed exceptionally well: making shots, drawing free throws, rebounding, defending. His on/off isn't incredible at +0.0, but compare that to Mahinmi's -13.5(!!!). Again, I'm not saying Plumlee would make the Pacers 13.5 points better while on the court: he's a starter and his backups are a Morris brother or Channing Frye, Mahinmi backs up the best center in the league. But even in context, it's very clear the Pacers would be better off with Plumlee than Mahinmi...

...unless there's something about the Pacers that makes bench guys stink. Seriously, look at the other recent additions/subtractions:

DJ Augustin is playing great in Chicago
CJ Watson is nearly as good as he was last year, but there is some slippage especially in the playmaking department
Chris Copeland made 59 3s last year and might not take 59 this year
Tyler Hansbrough is still worthless

Other than Hansbrough being worthless, being in Indiana measurably hurt all 6 of these guys. What's going on here? I really like Frank Vogel as a coach, he clearly gets his team to buy into and execute a fantastic defense, he doesn't have a big head, he's not a jerk... but I think he might just be bad at coaching offense. Indiana is 19th in rate of field goals assisted, 25th in turnovers, 23rd in % fast break points, 17th in rate of 3PA, 13th in rate of FTs drawn: they don't run, they're awful passers, they don't shoot 3s, they don't get a lot of free throws (though they make them at a very high rate), what is this team's plan on offense?

Then we notice that Paul George has a USG 6.7 higher than the next highest starter (West). The only other teams that fit that are...

Raptors (technically, subject to change following the trade)
Knicks (duh)
Lakers (again, technically, with all their injuries it's hard to pick anyone but Pau out as a starter)
Kings (BOOGIE)

You guys, these are not great offenses. Including the Pacers their ranks are in order 15, 16, 20, 22, 14. This is what we in the business (of making inordinately long message board posts) call a correlation. I warned you guys that Paul George wasn't going to keep shooting 50% on midrange jumpers, and sure enough he's down in the low 40s now with perilously low 15ish% rate of baskets assisted. Good teams are more than happy to give you 80 some odd points per 100 possessions. Indy's defense is great, but it's not great enough to win while scoring like that. And when Paul George sits and they run the same (non) offense, it's even worse.

Long story short (too late), Indy has a great defense when Roy Hibbert is on the floor and a passable offense when Paul George is on the floor. Take either out and it all goes to pot. Come Miami in the playoffs, George is clearly going to guard LeBron James (who is pretty good at drawing fouls) and Hibbert has to man on man guard Bosh (who is no slouch in that department) and clean up on the back line against LeBron and Wade. This is not a recipe for significant playing time.

Atlanteax

01-24-2014, 10:57 AM

Long story short (too late), Indy has a great defense when Roy Hibbert is on the floor and a passable offense when Paul George is on the floor. Take either out and it all goes to pot. Come Miami in the playoffs, George is clearly going to guard LeBron James (who is pretty good at drawing fouls) and Hibbert has to man on man guard Bosh (who is no slouch in that department) and clean up on the back line against LeBron and Wade. This is not a recipe for significant playing time.

Because the refs are/were instructed to favor the Heat players in calling fouls.

Latrinsorm

01-24-2014, 01:00 PM

My 3 fave moments from last night:

1. LeBron going coast to coast after a rebound, including poor Kendall Marshall deciding discretion was the better part of valor.

2. The late Ray Allen 3 came about because LeBron blew by Meeks and literally every Laker helped into the paint. LeBron can pass, guys.

3. The Lakers being down 8 with 23 seconds to go and Mike D'Antoni calling timeout... and the Lakers calling another when they failed to inbound the ball. Coaching.
Because the refs are/were instructed to favor the Heat players in calling fouls.Could be. Whatever the cause, though, the effect is that playing the Heat = lots of fouls for your best wing defender and center. This makes it important to build an offensive philosophy built on more than Paul George jumpers and to acquire a credible backup center.

Latrinsorm

01-24-2014, 10:52 PM

Carmelo puts up 62, Woody benches him with 8 minutes to go in a blowout. Coaching.

The Knicks don't have a prayer of doing anything this year. They're 15-27, they stink (11th worst MOV in the EAST), even if they make the playoffs they would get annihilated by Miami or Indiana or friggin' Toronto for that matter. Meanwhile, the list of players to score more than 62 since Michael: Kobe Bryant. The list to ever score 70: Wilt, David Robinson, Baylor, David Thompson, Kobe.

smh

Latrinsorm

01-26-2014, 05:01 PM

With their win today, the Heat close to within 2.5 games of the Pacers (who can still win 70 games if they go 36-3, good luck, have fun). Consider also that among five man lineups (http://stats.nba.com/leagueLineups.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=25&MeasureType=Advanced) the Pacers' starting 5 have played the 3rd most minutes in the NBA after Portland and Minnesota. It is unlikely that a member of the Pacers will go back in time and get barbaric knee surgery in college a la Wade, but I suggest that it is equally unlikely their excellent starting unit will enjoy such good health the rest of the way. This is what the Home Run Derby / Sports Illustrated / Madden curses boil down to, after all: regression to the mean.

Latrinsorm

01-27-2014, 09:20 PM

I'm sure I've talked about this before, but it's still friggin' annoying: the Spurs are 1-10 against the other top 7 in winning % and 32-1 against the rest. BIG PROBLEM?

No.

Stop it.

.

First of all, if the Spurs had gone 2-0 against the Rockets instead of 0-2, the Rockets wouldn't be in the top 7, and that 2-0 wouldn't count as being real wins. Any stat where winning more makes you worse off is a really, really dumb stat.

Second of all, which teams are you supposed to lose to? Seriously, every NBA team is going to lose multiple games over the course of a season. Should they lose to sub .500 teams? They're coasting, they think they can flip the switch. Should they lose to super .500 teams? They can't compete with the top tier teams. Any binary stat where both outcomes are cause for criticism is a really, really dumb stat.

Third of all, we're talking about the SPURS. I understand why certain people will take any chance they possibly can to criticize LeBron; it's because they have tiny penises. The Spurs are supposed to be the respected old-school fundamentals gritty champions in this narrative, when did the media decide we should criticize the Spurs? Tim Duncan hasn't even retired yet.

In conclusion, stop it.

Latrinsorm

01-28-2014, 06:22 PM

The NBA Finals MVP was first awarded in 1969. Which NBA players have amassed at least 2 Finals MVPs and 2 MVPs?

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (2 and 6)
Larry Bird (2 and 3)
Magic Johnson (3 and 3)
Michael Jordan (5 and 6, the king stay the king)
Tim Duncan (3 and 2)
LeBron James (2 and 4)

Which NBA players amassed 2+ MVPs before 1969?

Wilt Chamberlain (4)
Bill Russell (5)
Bob Pettit (2)

Of these, which can we assume would have been given 2 Finals MVPs if the award had existed?

Wilt already has one for 1971. In 1967 he was the league MVP on the NBA Champion 76ers. In the Finals, he was fifth(!) on his team in points per game with 17.7 to Hal Greer's 26.0, first in rebounds per game with TWENTY EIGHT POINT FIVE to Chet Walker's 8.8, first(!!!) in assists per game with 6.8 to Hal Greer's 6.2, played 287 of a possible 293 minutes, shot an unbelievable 22 of 72 (THIRTY PERCENT) from the free throw line, committed an incredible 17 personal fouls (6th on the team). At the age of 30. Math just does not work in the presence of Wilt Chamberlain, I have no idea whether he would have gotten FMVP in '67, and he didn't make the Finals any other time in the pre-FMVP era.

Bill Russell has 11 rings, the last of which was in 1969 when the award went to West. He would have gotten at least 2 FMVPs during the other 10, and I wouldn't be surprised if the reason they didn't invent the award until 1969 was because they were waiting for Russell to stop winning it every year - they did name it after the guy, after all.

Bob Pettit was a Hawks star back when the Hawks hailed from St. Louis, back when St. Louis was a Western city as far as sports were concerned. As a contemporary of Bill Russell, this meant he had the privilege of going against the greatest dynasty in sports history for multiple Finalses: 7 game losses in '57 and '60, 6 game win in '58 which kept the Celtics championship streak in single digits, 5 game loss in '61. There's no question he was the FMVP in 1958, but it's hard to make the case for him in '57 or '60 so he probably doesn't make it.

Another whole kettle of fish, what about the ABA? Erving had 1 NBA MVP and 2.5 in the ABA, never won an NBA FMVP, the ABA didn't award FMVPs and boxscores aren't available for them, but he probably would have been in '74 and '76. Would he have enjoyed the same success in the 70s NBA? Well, if he hadn't been playing for the ABA he surely would have been drafted in 1972 by the Blazers (although it is the Blazers, and they don't have a great track record), but they probably wouldn't be bad enough to draft Bill Walton in 1974, would they still win a championship in 1977 or at all? There's no way of knowing, clearly, but luckily Dr. J is the only one from the ABA worth considering. Mel Daniels is the only other one with 2 ABA MVPs, and while the Pacers he was on won 3 times it's improbable he was the best player on more than 1 of them.

.

This gives us...

Russell
Wilt...?
Kareem
Erving...?
Bird
Magic
Michael
Duncan
LeBron

...good list, if you ask me.

DoctorUnne

01-28-2014, 08:29 PM

Durant's going to run away with MVP this year if he keeps this up.

Latrinsorm

01-29-2014, 06:48 PM

Durant's going to run away with MVP this year if he keeps this up.It is certainly his award to lose. I would be surprised if someone other than these four teams finished with the top 2 records in their conferences: Heat/Pacers, Spurs/Thunder.

Heat
A three time MVP is very, very hard to come by. In the writer voting era only Larry Bird has done it: not Michael, not Duncan, not Magic, LeBron's last try at it went to Derrick friggin' Rose. LeBron is currently on track for 16.4 WS, which would have led the NBA in 4 of the past 10 seasons, but is still a letdown for his season last year (the 20th highest of all time in the slowest paced league since the shot clock was invented). Obviously, these are really stupid reasons for not giving him an award, but they are reasons that sportswriters buy into, and they're the only ones with a say in the matter.

Pacers
I actually came here today to post about this, but the Paul George MVP campaign continues to really annoy me. When George is on the court without Hibbert, the Pacers have a 102.5 ORtg and 99.3 DRtg. Put another way, the Pacers with George but not Hibbert wouldn't be a top 10 team in the NBA, but somehow George is the MVP candidate. This really annoys me.

Spurs
The Spurs have 6 players with three or more WS and 0 with five or more. By comparison the Pacers are 5/2, the Heat are 3/1, the Thunder are 3/2. If you can pick a most valuable player out of the Spurs my hat's off to you. Ha! Ha! Just kidding, it's Tim Duncan and anyone who gives Tony Parker a single vote deserves our withering scorn and poop in his mailbox.

That leaves the Thunder, with Durant on track for 21.0 WS (would be 11th all time) and doubling up his nearest teammate (Ibaka). Obviously if he keeps that up it's all over... but we've seen this before from Durant. Last year he was on pace to join LeBron as the only player since Michael to average .300 WS/48, but by the end of the season he was down to .291. Last year it was a "is this Durant's year for MVP?" story too, until LeBron got 120 of 121 first place MVP votes. If we look at his career splits, his TS%, USG%, and MP all go down after the All-Star break. It's easy to say "well he'll have something to play for this year!" but he's played in the West his entire career, and it didn't suddenly become a deep conference this year. By comparison, LeBron's USG% and MP go up after the All-Star break for his career.

Plus there's the issue of Westbrook coming back and vacuuming up Durant's touches (also not a new development this year). Durant's USG% so far this year is the highest since 2010, when Westbrook's was 25.7%. So far this year Westbrook's is 32.9%. Something's gotta give there, and Westbrook isn't the giving type.

Latrinsorm

01-30-2014, 06:26 PM

Fun game last night between Thunder and Heat. Obviously a lot of these are extremes and exaggerations, but a lot of the underlying trends are legit:

1. Kendrick Perkins cannot play basketball. The Thunder were an incredible -13 in the 5 minutes he played, then an even more incredible +34 over the next 41. Why Scott Brooks insists on playing a 4-3-3 (bigs, wings, point) is one of the great mysteries of our times.

2. Always Be Shooting 3s. Granted this is a little more effective on a night when Derek Fisher is making multiple banked 3s, but still. The bottom 5 teams in 3PAr (3PA/FGA) have an average rank of 20th in ORtg. "But what about drawing fouls?" Well, Houston is the #1 team in 3PAr and drawing fouls, so you tell me.

3. Ray Allen has somehow gotten even worse on defense, so I look forward to him coughing up 30 points on defense in a playoff game but then making another last second 3 that gets replayed until the end of time.

Latrinsorm

01-31-2014, 09:36 PM

Good news from last night: the Pacers don't have to play the Suns anymore this regular season.

Bad news: Danny Granger still stinks: 21 MP, 0 points, 0 of 3, 0 of 1 from 3, 0 assists. 4 reb, 2 blk, and 0 PF means he's probably doing okay on defense, but the Pacers are pretty set on defense. Last night's 97.1 ORtg against an average Suns defense pushed them to 105.2 on the season, 19th in the NBA. It's really hard to win a championship without being able to put the ball in the basket. The only teams in the past 20 years to win the title with below average offenses were the 2004 Pistons (who traded for Rasheed 3/4 of the way through the season) and the 1994 Rockets (who were outscored in the Finals but somehow won, plus LeBron is unlikely to be playing minor league baseball this May).

Getting back to Granger, though, from 2008 to 2012 he had an 18.8 PER, .501 eFG%, .347 FTr, 26.7 USG, 11.8/10.8 ast/tov %, and all told 3.5 OWS / year. Not incredible stats, but pretty good. This year he's at 10.3, .432, .206, 19.9, 8.5/13.3, and is on track for negative OWS - catastrophic decline across the board. It's been 20 games, and he's trending downward over the past 5.

The Pacers lost to Miami last year because their bench couldn't get it done. The acquisitions of Scola, Watson, Copeland were supposed to give the bench more punch - they didn't (in fairness to Copeland he still isn't playing). Granger coming back was supposed to be the ace in the hole - turns out he's an Uno draw 2. The Pacers are also well over the cap, averse to paying the luxury tax, and without their 2014 1st rounder. Anything's possible, but their options are limited.

Latrinsorm

02-01-2014, 12:23 PM

I was thinking yesterday that Bynum to Indy would make a lot of sense.:) With the caveat that the obvious move is playing him over Mahinmi. If he starts playing Bynum over Scola, all bets are off. This also offers an interesting domino effect: where does Chris Copeland go? The Pacers don't want to pay the tax, Copeland is getting $3m as now the sixth big (in Vogel's mind), he's not young (29!) but he's younger than Scola and fills a more popular role (wing 3s). He would fit in great for the Rockets and the Warriors, for instance, and with how close the West is a small addition could go a long way in terms of seeding.

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Everyone agrees Durant had a sensationally hot month, shooting 54.9% from the field. Just saying, LeBron shot 56.5% from the field for the year last year. Just saying.

Latrinsorm

02-05-2014, 03:25 PM

I was wondering when Bynum is going to start playing for the Pacers, and was surprised to learn that according to this story (http://www.nba.com/pacers/news/west-delivers-words-and-deed), it's not for a "few weeks"!! 2.5 weeks from Feb 2nd is Feb 19th, after which the Pacers will only have 28 games left in the season. It seems weird to me that they would wait so long to play him. He's only had about a month off, his playing time had ramped up from 16.8 MP/g in his first 12 games to 23.2 in his second, Ian Mahinmi is only playing 16 a game and is still on the roster to spot him if necessary (fatigue or fouls). I understand wanting him to learn the system and everything, but he's never been a low-IQ guy (on the court) and basketball's really not that complicated, especially the Pacer version.

The only thing I can think of is they want to ease him back into the NBA, because that part of the schedule goes: Milwaukee, Lakers (possibly Pau-less), Milwaukee, Boston, Utah, including a solid week in Indianapolis (and presumably extended practices? I don't really know how NBA teams practice).

.

Food for thought: IND starters have missed 4 games so far (1 Lance, 3 Hill). MIA starters have missed 27 (1 Bosh, LeBron; 6 Chalmers, Battier; 13 Wade). 4 Pacers have played in every game (George, West, Hibbert, Scola), 1 HEAT has (Cole).

Latrinsorm

02-06-2014, 05:45 PM

I only got to see the 2 hour edited recap of the Heat game last night, which seemed pretty biased towards the Heat showing off... but man, that first quarter was unreal. The Heat opened the game 6-6 from the field with 6 assists, five layups and a Battier 3. All told: 16 of 23 (70%), 15 assists, 1 turnover, 36 points on 24 possessions = 150 ORtg... and the Clippers are a top 10 defensive team! A lot has been made (justifiably) of the comparative lack of effort on the defensive end, but if the Heat (already 2nd in the league on ORtg!) can also go up another gear offensively? Forget it.

Another really interesting moment came on the defensive end: Blake Griffin spun off Bosh for an alley oop, but Chris Andersen was at the rim ready to contest and came away with the block. The Heat's rim protection has traditionally been Bosh (adequate), a charge drawer (Haslem or Battier), and then Wade and James flying around for blocks. As one would expect, both men are having a tougher time coming up with those hyperathletic feats as they age (although James did draw a critical charge late in the game). Playing Andersen (or Oden) at the same time as Bosh gives the Heat a dramatically different look on the defensive end, and sometimes a changeup is all you need to throw off the other team. (Also, having LeBron guard DeAndre Jordan isn't fair.)

Such a pairing might have troubled the spacing even last year, but Bosh has continued to grow as a 3 point shooter. The only center with more 3 point makes than Bosh's 36 is Spencer Hawes (who is shooting a ridiculous 41.1%, too). He's not Ryan Anderson, but he's good enough.

DoctorUnne

02-06-2014, 09:45 PM

Very excited to see a Brooklyn Miami playoff matchup.

In other news, I heard the Lakers had a guy foul out only they didn't have any subs, so they were allowed to keep him in the game except every subsequent foul is a T? First of all that's awesome they got to that point. Second of all, forcing them to play 5 on 4 would have been much better

SHAFT

02-06-2014, 10:19 PM

The lakers are in bad shape. Depressing.

Atlanteax

02-07-2014, 12:03 PM

The lakers are in bad shape. Depressing.

They're all injured.

Keller

02-07-2014, 12:36 PM

As if the comparison needed any more credibility, Paul George headlines the first dunk contest roster to include 3 all-stars since MJ headlined the roster including Clyde and 'Nique in '88.

Atlanteax

02-07-2014, 03:07 PM

As if the comparison needed any more credibility, Paul George headlines the first dunk contest roster to include 3 all-stars since MJ headlined the roster including Clyde and 'Nique in '88.

Who is Paul George?

SHAFT

02-07-2014, 03:08 PM

Who is Paul George?

Dunno. Never heard of him. I think he's on the Canadian hockey team.

Latrinsorm

02-07-2014, 05:21 PM

George might be able to get to Dominique's level on a bad team, but on the Pacers he just can't match the shooting volume. Also, he's kind of fallen off a lot since our last go-round on this, I'm surprised Keller brought him up at all. In the 18 games of 2014, George has 58 assists to 58 turnovers (a dreadful ratio for a perimeter player), is shooting a brutal 32% (35 of 111) from 3 which unsurprisingly has sent his FG% into a tailspin: 128 of 315 for 41%. On the plus side, he's still rebounding well, taking and making free throws well, but these are not superstar numbers. They're not even Kobe numbers, for Pete's sake.

Being top 25 in PER is a heck of a lot better than being bottom 25, but unless you're willing to christen Isaiah Thomas and Mike Conley superstars, I'd hold off.

And our ± update:
Paul George on: 108.3 - 97.1 = 11.2 (championship caliber)
Paul George off: 99.1 - 97.7 = 1.4 (1st round cannon fodder)
Paul George on Roy Hibbert off: 102.0 - 98.5 = 3.5 (2nd round exit)

Roy Hibbert has played a total of 81 minutes without Paul George, less than 2 minutes per game. It's no surprise that a casual inspection of George's on/off makes him look so good: we're really looking at two guys, both of whom are very good players.

Latrinsorm

02-08-2014, 01:36 PM

Interesting game last night between Pacers and Blazers. Immovable object vs. unstoppable force on one side, movable object vs. stoppable force on the other, and as one might expect the result was ugliness all over.

The comparison to the Seahawks is way off, and here's why: the Seahawks were 7th in offensive DVOA, the Pacers are 19th in ORtg. The Seahawks were 5th in special teams DVOA, which has no analog in basketball. (The Portland-Denver comp is better, because Denver had a 15/32 rank in defense and Portland is 20/30, but Denver also had poor special teams. Everyone ignoring the third phase in football doesn't make it go away.)

I can understand why I like Paul George: he's a fine two-way player, good energy, some questionable offensive decision making but that happens to everyone. I can't understand why Keller likes him after last night's game. Every drive was followed by demonstrative arm waving at the officials for the no-calls. Whether he deserved them or not (I'd say it was 50/50), I seem to recall Keller blasting Wade and LeBron for doing the same thing. I also would like to point out that the Pacers received 35 free throws to the Blazers' 20, the Blazers' two best players received 11 fouls to the Pacers' 5. While Indiana was in the paint more, maybe shut up about the officiating when it's strongly going in your team's favor even if you individually aren't getting calls.

Two interesting wrinkles in assignments:

1. Damian Lillard laid waste to George Hill. (Everyone ignored this because Georgie scored all those points, look at all those points, he must be great. I am disgusted.) To be fair, Lillard is pretty good at offense, but as soon as Vogel shifted Hill to Wes Matthews the Blazers started pounding him there too. Hill looks like he'd be a fine defender: good enough height, long, strong, quick, good effort... but he's just not. You know the story by now: Hill on 98.2, Hill off 95.8, Hill no Hibbert 101.7. This isn't a big deal in the East because the Heat point guards are only spot-up threats, but if the Pacers happen to get to the Finals against say the Thunder and Westbrook or the Spurs and Parker, it's going to be a bloodbath.

2. Speaking of poor defenders, Damian Lillard! By the end of the game, the Blazers were hiding him on Danny Granger(!!!!!). Everyone pretty much knew Lillard was a bad defender, but it really shows how far Granger has fallen that Portland would intentionally (and successfully) guard him with a minus defender giving up 5 inches and 50 pounds. This is a big deal in the East because the Pacers aren't going to beat the Heat without a bench, and if Granger can't return to form that wager rides entirely on Andrew Bynum. I like Bynum, but I wouldn't bet my playoff life on him.
Very excited to see a Brooklyn Miami playoff matchup.The Nets certainly look like they're getting it together, the stink bomb against Detroit last night is probably a fluke. Still, Garnett and Pierce couldn't beat the Heat when they were younger with a real coach and Rondo. Rondo has his flaws, but he's better than Deron friggin' Williams.

Latrinsorm

02-08-2014, 05:50 PM

The Anthony Davis - Kevin Garnett comparison continues to perplex.

1. Anthony Davis is not very good defensively. He leads the league in blocks, but getting a block on 3 possessions does not turn out to be super important when there are ~100 possessions in a game. He is totally befuddled by a basic pick and roll. Some of this may be a coaching issue: the best coaches implement a system rather than "hey man, do whatever". I don't know how good a coach Monty Williams is, but I know that Davis is all over the place: he shows, traps, and switches with equal probability and equal lack of success. He's okay one on one, but he defends way too much with his arms (admittedly of infinite length) and nowhere near enough with his body or feet. This is a great recipe for blocks (because you can only get blocks with your arms) but it's also a great recipe for hemorrhaging points otherwise.

2. Davis is only 20 in his second year, but through some quirk of the calendar Garnett was just as old year for year even though Davis had a year of college: Davis was born March 11th but graduated high school at 17. It also happens that Garnett in his second year captained a Timberwolves team to the 15th ranked DRtg out of 29, while Davis' Pelicans are 27th out of 30. It's possible those Timberwolves had defensive stalwarts where the Pelicans have sieves, but considering Minnesota started 19 year old Stephon Marbury it seems improbable, plus the Pelicans are only 1 point per 100 possessions worse on defense when he sits. (On/off splits don't go that far back for an exact comp to Garnett.)

Maybe he'll mature into an elite defender, but as of now he's not close.

Latrinsorm

02-09-2014, 01:26 PM

Sports analysis that drives me crazy, case #134,548 (http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/miamiheat/post/_/id/19968/salt-flats-low-point-in-loss-for-lebron-heat):

"Road losses this season at Sacramento, at Philadelphia and now at Utah have made it hard to keep up with Indiana." (regarding the Heat)

The good teams should beat the bad teams. And if they can't beat the good teams, they're really not that good. So... a good team should go 82-0?

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Every team is going to lose. Every player is going to miss shots. If you ignore sample size, you can gin up any narrative you want. So don't ignore sample size.

Latrinsorm

02-11-2014, 10:22 PM

I was wondering today, who are the best 3rd best players in the NBA? Listed in standings order:

IND - Lance
OKC - Ibaka
MIA - Bosh
SAS - Kawhi
POR - Matthews
HOU - Parsons
LAC - DeAndre

Lance like Paul George started great and has come crashing back to earth in 2014. 3P% is 31%, 96 assists to 60 turnovers is a fine 1.6 ratio but a far cry from the 158/76 = 2.1 he was sporting before the calender flipped. If 2013 was the real Lance, he makes a strong case for the #1 spot and for the Pacers beating the Heat. If 2014 is... not so much.

It's pretty clear by this point that Ibaka is never going to figure out how to pass, at least as long as the Thunder run the Brooks system. Only 15 players in NBA history have amassed 4 or more seasons of >25 mp/g and <1 ast/g, Ibaka is on track to make it 16 and he's only 24. That's not a great sign. His 16-23 foot shot has stayed the course with more touches: 37% of his attempts last year at 47%, 35% at 48% this year. It's not the weapon that the Bosh 3 is, but it's credible. Surprisingly, he's underwater on on/off splits: +7.3 on, +9.2 off. The sample sizes are still small enough for it to be the other way around in truth, but at 50 games it's tightening up (the net would be reported as -2.9 ± 6.1ish).

It seems like Bosh has really stepped up his game this year but boxscore-wise he's indistinguishable from his Miami averages except he has traded 0.4 free throw attempts for 1.2 three point attempts. Mathematically that's a plus on its own (.4 * .8 = .32, 1.2 * .35 = .42), and obviously the implications are enormous as far as floor spacing goes, especially with the Heat going with more two-big looks.

Kawhi is probably a Spurs robot. Just keeps plugging away with the same stats, nothing outrageous, then they have 60 wins at the end of the season. A lot of this, as always, is due to Tim Duncan being an all-time great player. He's right on track to get 8 Win Shares and 21 PER as a 37 year old, joining Kareem, Karl, and Stockton as the only players to ever manage it. No big deal.

Wes Matthews is a very good shooter. His playmaking is poor and his rebounding is shockingly bad, but guys who can shoot and play defense (and next to Lillard he looks like Gary Payton) have long careers for a reason.

Parsons is (still) having the season Kawhi was supposed to, and getting none of the love Kawhi would have. 17 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, and a 40% 3 point shooter... Kevin Durant and Chandler Parsons are the only guys who fit that bill this season. Like Matthews, playing next to a sieve in Harden makes Parsons' defense look better than it is, but it is adequate.

DeAndre's minutes are up a little, but the rebounds are up way more. It's not clear to me where they're coming from, because Blake's are up a notch too. The Clipper defense was good last year too, so dunno. Maybe because the third big went from Odom to Jamison? Anyway, his free throws are still a disaster at 44%, but that's an upgrade from the catastrophe of 39% last year.

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All told, I would go:

1. Bosh
2. Ibaka
3. Parsons
T4. Lance
T4. Kawhi
6. DeAndre
7. Matthews

Latrinsorm

02-13-2014, 06:15 PM

The Heat probably can't catch the Pacers for east #1, especially since the Pacers are sure to close the season on a 30-0 run, but they're a nose ahead of San Antonio and might be able to catch the Thunder if Westbrook ruins everything when he gets back. Home court in the Finals conceivably means more now that they changed it back to 2-2-1-1-1.

I talked before about how w% against good teams or bad teams or in close games is only ever brought up to criticize those teams, and here's another one: why do you think you haven't heard about the Pacers/Heat records against the West? Because Miami has the best record against the West in the NBA at 15-4 (79%), so it's not a story.

DoctorUnne

02-13-2014, 09:17 PM

Still, Garnett and Pierce couldn't beat the Heat when they were younger with a real coach and Rondo. Rondo has his flaws, but he's better than Deron friggin' Williams.

They didn't beat the Heat, but they could have. They came a cunt hair away from doing it (maybe a really long one but they were up 10 in game 7 in the 3rd quarter), which means LeBron is two cunt hairs away from having zero rings. Don't forget that.

Obviously Pierce and Garnett have gotten a lot worse, but Wade has gotten worse too. Even in a 7 game series, anything can happen. I'd be praying they could somehow stretch it to a game six in NYC because that would be electric.

Latrinsorm

02-14-2014, 12:20 AM

Every success perches on a ladder of increasingly preposterous coincidences. What if the Nets take Kobe over Kerry Kittles? Playing for John Calipari, does Kobe learn to even slightly rein in his style of play? Do they make the Van Horn or Kidd trades?

What if the Hornets and every other potential trade partner decide to pass on Vlade? Remember that the trade was made literally the day before the draft. No other SGs are taken before the Lakers pick Fisher at #24, presumably they take Kobe there... but then who makes the 0.4 shot? Does that bouncing the other way give Tim 5 rings and 4 FMVPs? Forget that, can the Lakers even get Shaq without dumping Vlade on somebody?

I don't think the Celts series is an especially vivid case: they were up 8 but with 21 minutes to go, and the Heat were home and had outscored Boston by a cumulative 21 points over 6 games. Not an amazing margin, but much bigger than (for example) the Jordan-Barkley Finals, which finished dead even on points. Boston won by 10 points, 4 points, 2 points, Miami won by 19, 14, 13, 4... you know the story with close games, if the Heat had been lucky it would have been a 5 game series. Mario Chalmers goes 1 for 3 instead of 0 for 3 and they win Game 4. Mickael Pietrus goes 0 for 4 instead of 2 for 4 and it's over.

Latrinsorm

02-17-2014, 07:02 PM

I criticize Carmelo frequently (and also absolutely accurately), but I'm glad he at least knows that you're supposed to salute when the national anthem is being played.

100 combined 3 pointers is pretty sweet, much sweeter than the 91 combined FTAs of the previous high-scoring All-Star game in 1987. Incredibly, only Hakeem fouled out of that game.

It was really entertaining watching Irving and LeBron play together on offense. Maybe they can team up someday? Miami will have some cap room in 2016.

waywardgs

02-17-2014, 07:13 PM

I prefer slamball.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ouXw328WYI

Latrinsorm

02-17-2014, 08:12 PM

An interesting wrinkle brought up today by celebrity assistant coach and Erin Heatherton enthusiast Zach Lowe: NBA teams that stay under the tax get a cut of everyone else's tax payments.

Briefly, the NBA has a "soft" cap which means that teams can go over it in certain situations, but if they go too high they get fined. This year the tax threshold is $71.7m, and so far only 6 teams are above it: Brooklyn, New York, Miami, Lakers, Clippers, Chicago. Brooklyn is of course the big fish with a tax bill of $80m, but between the other five teams there's about $60m of wealth being redistributed, so all told the non-tax teams will get $5.8m a piece... as long as they stay under the line.

On top of that, another rule about to be implemented is that a team that goes over the tax repeatedly (defined as 4 times in 5 seasons) pays even more tax, which means a team gives up money now and money later to go over the tax. Illustration: if Indiana signs Lance Stephenson to a longterm contract worth at least $10m a year next year they will be over the tax for at least the next two years. Thus, if they do anything to go over the tax this year they kiss $6m goodbye and however much the tax splits out to for the next two years and have to be under in 2017 or face severe financial consequences. (At the same time, because it's a progressive tax being slightly over isn't that big a deal.)

It's going to go a long way to demonstrating which owners see their teams as sports teams and which see them as businesses (and haven't gotten a crb lecture about static accounting fails, because more winning = more revenue).

Latrinsorm

02-18-2014, 07:15 PM

What are the best shots? 3s (moar points) and the paint (moar fouls and moar percentage). Who's pretty good in the paint? From Goldsberry by way of Simmons:

"95 NBA players have attempted at least 200 shots inside eight feet this season. The top three in FG% — LeBron (75%), Bosh (69%), Wade (68%)."

LeBron was an elite spot-up three point shooter last year, which may have been a bad thing because he has added 0.5 overall attempts with 0 makes this year, bringing him back down to almost exactly average as a forward. With that said, giving a guy with LeBron's driving and passing and finishing ability even an average 3 point shot is frankly unfair.

Bosh is one of those guys that makes positional attribution difficult. He's listed as a center but isn't really, but calling him a forward like Carmelo or Belinelli is just as inaccurate. He makes it very plausible to go with the point/wing/big paradigm, and the only guys ahead of him there as far as 3P% goes are Spencer Hawes, Dirk, Love, Millsap. Granted there aren't a ton of bigs below him either, but consider how everyone says how much Westbrook's jump shot has improved and he's shooting friggin' 31% from 3 on 110 attempts while Bosh is hitting on 36% on 107. Certain people will still bitch about Bosh's rebounds, but he's unbelievably unselfish and efficient on offense, and grossly underrated on defense because people look at blocks and steals.

Wade still can't really shoot 3s. This is weird, because he's an incredibly skilled player otherwise and with the Three Kings Heat you get a ton of open shots. He's undersized, but he's brutally strong (as his unstoppable post game attests) so it seems like he should be able to develop that range if he wants to. At the same time, he's on track for his least 3PAs of his career, which is a better outcome than being lousy at 3s and chucking them anyway. Also, his impeccable cutting ability is an extremely significant factor in his near-rim %, and is a very plausible strategy for converting those open looks: 70% of a 2 is worth 47% of a 3, and hardly anybody shoots 47% on 3.

Latrinsorm

02-18-2014, 08:24 PM

Listening to the BS Report: Roy Hibbert can reel off his own draft position, Lance's, even George Hill's within 1 pick. It's always been plausible, but man, the "chip on his shoulder from so many teams passing on him" thing might really have legs.

Of course, the second level in all these discussions is when the team that eventually drafted the player passed on him in the first round: Paul George over Lance, for instance, or JR Redmond and 4 guys you've never heard of over Tom Brady in football. This is especially interesting with the Pacers because the large contract given to Paul George is very relevant to how large a contract the Pacers will offer Lance. It's a fact that Paul George is a better player than Lance and will be so for the conceivable future, but I doubt that offering that observation is a great negotiation strategy.

Latrinsorm

02-20-2014, 05:34 PM

GTFO Granger (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10491189/indiana-pacers-trade-danny-granger-philadelphia-76ers-evan-turner-lavoy-allen). I been staying they should move him for the longest time, but I hate this move for the Pacers. For his many faults, Danny Granger can credibly attempt 3s, a desperate area of need for the Pacers made all the more absurd with Frank Vogel's stubbornness in playing Chris Copeland (even against KEVIN LOVE he refused until the second half). Granger's ast/tov ratio is notoriously bad for a wing play, and Turner's is pretty good, but even Evan doesn't put up a significant volume of assists. He's another iso long 2 machine, this helps the Pacers how? The 76er defense has been atrocious with or without Turner this year.

So we know this trade wasn't made for basketball reasons. Why, then?

Granger salary: $14.0m
Turner and Allen: $9.7m

This also puts them at 16 roster spots, so someone's getting waived (probably Allen for another $3m). Everyone knows basketball is measured by rings, in Indiana basketball is measured by Benjamins. Hate to say I told you so.

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Speaking of, the Lakers are now openly tanking. "Who cares about Steve Blake?", you might ask... except that the Lakers have been so decimated by injury that Steve Blake has by default been their marquee player, defined as the player shown in TV promos. Dwight Howard and the Rockets take on Steve Blake and the Lakers! okay but Blake was just traded, so Chris Kaman?!? Man, it's a good thing they ran that bum Dwight Howard out of town, otherwise they'd really... be... in bad shape now...

The 2014 Lakers have a very legit shot at finishing with the worst win% since 1958. That's why you have to keep Kobe instead of Dwight, he has that intangible clutch will to win clutch games.

Latrinsorm

02-20-2014, 09:00 PM

Watched the Pacers game last night. Great game by Minny, and I will never tire of the Kevin Love fake handoff into open three pointer move. If it's not already a European move, it should be. Obviously the result tells us nothing about Indiana... except that with 13 losses it is mathematically impossible for them to reach 70 wins. Math wins again.

Keller

02-21-2014, 11:14 AM

Turner gives the Pacers flexibility if they can't afford Lance. The Pacers can afford Turner's QO.

The question you need to be answering, Latrin, is who will sign Granger when the 76ers cut him?

Latrinsorm

02-21-2014, 02:35 PM

The Heat-Thunder game last night was the kind of bloodbath (:D) that doesn't tell you a lot, but a couple things I saw:

-Especially compared to the Pacers who I watched last night in a similar situation, the Thunder never got ruffled. (Except Westbrook, of course.) This is strange because the Pacers are definitely physically tougher and older than the Thunder, but a little adversity and Hill lost it. West has a higher threshold but still became impatient, and George follows his lead. All told, though, the Pacers are 7th highest in the NBA at techs per game to the Thunder's 5th highest, and with Westbrook back the Thunder only stand to get worse. For the record, the Heat are 8th lowest and Wade doesn't even lead the team.

-Speaking of Wade, his knees looked great last night. Westbrook also looked great physically, but if the Heat's Popovich treatment has worked and Wade will look like this in the playoffs, forget about it. He went up last night for an easy reverse two handed flush, which doesn't sound like much but at times last year Wade was laboring to dunk at all, so this was a major improvement (and Rashard Lewis went wild on the bench, so it's not just me saying it).

-LeBron is the only player I know of that draws gasps from the opposing crowd, and his opening spurt of 10 points in 4 minutes did just that. Drives, alley oops, jumpers, everything went except for a free throw (and it is disappointing that his FT% hasn't improved this year). The best fan reactions, of course, were as he lay on the ground with a broken nose bleeding heavily and some Thunder fan screamed derisively at him to get up. Not a good look, Thunder fans.
Turner gives the Pacers flexibility if they can't afford Lance. The Pacers can afford Turner's QO.Turner is definitely not signing a QO, come on man, and it's not like people are lining up with max offers for the Eighth Grader.
The question you need to be answering, Latrin, is who will sign Granger when the 76ers cut him?I would hope the Clippers, they have the biggest wing need especially with Redick out again. Miami is pretty set at wings, the only real options for Granger to replace would be Battier (who even with his recent slump is shooting better than Granger) and Beasley (and I doubt Granger would sign on for that kind of intermittent role). Indiana can't resign him this season, although it might be possible if he signed at a reduced rate by Team X and was then traded to Indiana for Lavoy Allen or someone, I'm not a CBA expert. The Thunder are set, the Spurs could have used him while Green/Kawhi were injured but they're both back, the Suns don't seem to be interested in adding pieces, the Blazers need a big rather than a wing, the Rockets are interesting now that Asik is back but Granger's iso style is not well suited to their offense and they at least publicly have been stressing the need for roster stability and chemistry building.

Another possibility is he's not bought out at all, or is and wants to be the star again, which he can't be on any contender.

The real question is WHERE IS BYNUM. Tick tick, Frank.

Keller

02-21-2014, 02:41 PM

Where is Bynum?

Not in Miami.

Latrinsorm

02-21-2014, 04:58 PM

I talked some other time about how NBA champions stacked up in terms of rating in the top third, and how being in the top third of both offense and defense was a big deal. Only 6 teams in the past 20 years have done otherwise: 2010 Lakers, 2004 Pistons, 2001 Lakers, 1999 Spurs, 1995 and 1994 Rockets. Then it occurred to me, what if teams that have won the ring the previous year slack off the next year, because 100+ NBA games is a friggin' lot? Suggestively, three of the six teams listed were champions the previous year, another one occurred in the lockout shortened season of 1999 when sample sizes were nearly halved, and another one had a major acquisition at the trade deadline (more on this later).

It turns out that teams that were not repeating averaged 7.5 in offense and 3.6 in defense, while teams that successfully repeated averaged 5.6 in offense and 8.0 in defense. Who cares?

1. After nibbling at the top 10 (30 / 3) in DRtg early in the season, the Heat are now in 16th and probably won't make it back to the top third. This becomes less troubling if repeat champions in the past have done the same.

2. The Trailblazers' defensive ineptitude becomes more troubling if first-time champions have been top third defensively throughout this sample: the 2001 Lakers comp is out because the Blazers didn't win in 2013.

3. The Pacers' offensive ineptitude becomes slightly less troubling because the 1994 Rockets finished 15th out of 27 teams in offense but still won it all as first time champs. I don't know why people insist on comparing these Pacers to the 2004 Pistons: Detroit had an elite point player and played their late season acquisition 35 minutes per game in the playoffs with 23 of 23 games started. Roy Hibbert has a bit in common with Hakeem: came to basketball late, elite defender. Fortunately for the rest of the NBA, there are distinctions to be made as well: Roy is totally disrespected by his own team in term of touches, the new zone rules of 2002 combined with the hybrid defenses first discovered by Thibodeau make post-ups dramatically more difficult.

.

I don't know how LeBron's historical legacy will shake out, but I can't help but notice Hibbert and Durant being submarined by their own teams/coaches. It makes me wonder if similar scenarios played out in the past: what if someone took touches away from Chamberlain and that's why his teams couldn't beat Russell's? Okay, bad example. What if there was a Westbrook/Durant situation in LA or Boston of the 80s, where a very good but nevertheless inferior player diluted the impact of a superior one? There are no on/offs, no ±s, no play by plays for that time. I guess we'll never know.

Keller

02-21-2014, 05:29 PM

Easy to see why Lebron "Softer than Charmin" James quit football.

http://giant.gfycat.com/UnfitHandyFly.gif

Latrinsorm

02-21-2014, 07:00 PM

It's not a coincidence that it's always Derek Fisher blowing up LeBron and Derek Fisher drawing charges from LeBron: Derek Fisher is a tough hombre. Consider that he weighs in at 200 pounds when Michael Jordan weighed in at 195 at 5" taller. Seeing that play over and over it's crazy that Fisher complained about the call, it may as well be the textbook definition of blowing up a screener.

My favorite "LeBron is soft" meme from that game has to be the one comparing LeBron's busted nose to Kobe's busted Achilles, noting that Kobe stayed in the game to take free throws while LeBron went straight to the back...

...but failing to note that on a non-contact injury Kobe received a foul call, while on a play where Ibaka literally smashed LeBron's nose there were no free throws awarded. Not to mention failing to note that NBA players are absolutely forbidden from taking the court while bleeding: welcome to Magic's NBA.

Narthsin

02-21-2014, 07:24 PM

lol, that gif is awesome. Fisher should have played football. He lowers his shoulder right into Labron's chest while running right at him. Wow.

Keller

02-21-2014, 10:50 PM

Assuming the Spacejam 2 rumors are true, what are the odds Lebron switches to play for the Monstars halfway through the movie?

Latrinsorm

02-22-2014, 01:20 PM

Well, if we take Space Jam and do a linear regression on the Wins Produced per 48 minutes of screen time interpolating the full box score with Hollinger's Play Odds model, we can clearly see that Kobe sucks. What were we talking about?

Drew

02-22-2014, 02:16 PM

I did enjoy reading all the online commenters who were accusing LeBron of being soft before they found out he had a broken nose. I'm sure they still think it today because "narrative" but it's amazing how much hate this guy gets. I've had my nose broken before and it's extremely painful. I had a compound fracture and the pain level was damn near similar. If anymore proof was needed that this guy gets called like Shaq did this confirmed it.

Latrinsorm

02-23-2014, 08:14 PM

Some thoughts from today's mostly unwatchable doubleheader:

Russell Westbrook. Blah blah blah on the court, whatever, nothing about the Thunder matters until the playoffs. In an interview segment he sported what at first looked like a leopard print vest(!!!), but on closer inspection turned out to be a leopard print sleeveless blazer(!!!?!?!?!) over a gray tee and mysterious black sleeves(???). What. What is even happening.

The Clips are for real. Paul is still the greatest guard since MJ, Blake is a real player, and they have by far the highest potential growth from now to the end of the season: adding Davis, getting Reddick back, potentially adding Granger. Every team can theoretically add Davis and Granger, but LA (full stop) would benefit most from adding them. Don't forget that the Clippers before today's games ranked 3rd in offense and 11th in defense: every team better than them on offense is worse on defense and vice versa. They're only 3 games back from the Spurs and CP3 has missed a lot of games; it would not surprise me at all for the Clippers to make the Finals with their current roster, even less so with acquisitions.

A very common criticism about the Heat has been their lack of depth, and today showed (for the millionth time) how silly that criticism is. Yes, LeBron is the best player in the league (but not the MVP so far). Yes, Wade and Bosh are clearly the best 2nd and 3rd bananas in the league. But people who think the Heat go only three deep aren't paying attention. Chris Andersen was a revelation last year, but that was more a commentary on the Heat's sorry big play beyond Bosh. The chemistry he has demonstrated this year has been astonishing: against the Thunder he threw a no-look backwards bounce pass on target to Battier for 3, against the Bulls (and to be fair mostly against the defensively challenged Boozer) he finished approximately 3789357 lobs. It is extremely interesting to compare him to Serge Ibaka: Ibaka has played every minute with at least one elite offensive player and has enjoyed excellent continuity, Andersen has bounced around the league with two very alarming accusations that turned out to be totally unfounded, plus he was brutal in the 2005 dunk contest... but at the end of the day Andersen's teams are +4.6 on/off over 10.1k minutes and Ibaka's are -1.7 over 9.6k.

In the first three years of the Heatles era the WS of the fourth best player were 4.7 James Jones(!!!), 5.3 prorated Mario Chalmers, 5.4 Ray Allen. Andersen is on track for 5.7, and more importantly gives the Heat a legit second big player. You could never out-superstar or out-defense the Heat, since 2012 you can't out-three them, if Andersen is on you can't out-big them... what's left? As his two three point attempts yesterday demonstrated, Andersen is so comfortable he's started screwing around with the Heat. You might think this could be a problem, but come on, it's a game against the Bulls minus Jimmy Butler, and to be fair both 3s were in rhythm from the corner, and after attempting 7 threes in the 2013 regular season he attempted 0 in the playoffs. Comfort is dramatically more important than some random play in some regular season game.

.

With LeBron out, any coach might be tempted to ride Wade and Bosh hard... but they played 35 minutes a piece. Durant played 46. 46! I have a lot of (absolutely justified) criticisms of Vogel, but the high Pacer for mp/g is Paul George at 36: that's the right move. I don't see how OKC can be considered a legit contender until Kendrick Perkins is out of the lineup for keeps and Westbrook's usage gets below Durant's. Did you know it's been higher for the last 4 years? Is that obnoxious or what? It wouldn't be the first time a coach made a team good but couldn't get them to the championship (Del Harris, Doug Collins, every Laker coach between Kundla and Sharman).

Latrinsorm

02-23-2014, 08:35 PM

A final thought: but really, are the Heat the most likable team of the contenders?

IND: Seems like they should be the good old boy Midwest fundamentals team, but they're actually 24th in assist rate (nap town is iso city), George Hill is a huge crybaby, Lance Stephenson is a psychopath which has a good way but also a very much bad way.

OKC: The highest tech totals of any contender besides LAC, Westbrook is by far and away the most unlikable player in the league, throws tantrums constantly. I literally cannot remember the last time I saw an NBA player double-stomp the floor in anger over a call... besides Westbrook. He can't shoot, but he prefers iso jump shots over passing the ball to Durant. Durant is set up as the antagonist to the big city flaunting Heat, but he's no prince, a lot of demonstrative complaining. I really like Ibaka and think he's a good player, but mysteriously he is involved in a lot of vicious plays: punching Blake in the nuts, breaking LeBron's nose, and I can only assume a heck of a lot more in non-national games. I also like Perkins but I can see how his glowering ogre bit rubs people the wrong way. Even more iso than Indy.

LAC: It is well documented that I am not a fan of Ray Allen's all-offense no-defense shtick, and Jamal Crawford falls very very very very much in the same category. With that said, I respect how (unlike JET) Jamal at least doesn't run around abusing the analog stick (that's your WCW/nWo Revenge joke for today, enjoy it). It is easy to underestimate Blake Griffin because his post-ups looks like a YMCA rec league gone horribly wrong, but the guy gets tough rebounds, makes free throws, and even plays defense in non-box-score ways (which are by far and away the most important ways). Returning to the topic of tonight's dissertation, these are things that are hard to like, while his whining and lack of coordination are very easy to dislike.

SAS: yawwwwwwwwwwwwwwn.

HOU: Dwight Howard has enjoyed a surprising renaissance from his pariah status, especially compared to LeBron's. I suspect this is because everyone knows that the criticism for the Laker implosion rests entirely on Kobe's shoulders, but by and large they refuse to levy such criticism, so karmically this results in good feeling for Dwight...? Who knows.

.

And that leaves Miami. Dwyane Wade was once just as much a basketball psychopath as Lance, but it illustrates the meaningless of that term that he was able to recognize the superiority of LeBron and acquiesce accordingly. All three of the Heatles took sub-max contracts and probably will do so again, but nobody cares because Wade does a heck of a lot of complaining, and look at all those tattoos!!! Havlicek never had tattoos!!! LeBron and Bosh are both introverts, and they have neatly demonstrated the potential paths for such people: Bosh never expresses anything so he's lazy and never rebounds, LeBron severely overcompensates so his emoting comes across as pouting or crying. But... Andersen and Oden are absolute feel-good stories, and Beasley isn't far behind. Like Crawford, Allen very rarely succumbs to taunting, and the two famous examples are both justified: saving the Finals (GET THOSE ROPES), disgust at the Philly over Milwaukee bias back in 2001.

Latrinsorm

02-23-2014, 11:50 PM

Yet another reason to be suspicious of Vogel's lineup decisions: Jason Collins has been out of basketball for ten months, signed and played tonight (and was +7 in 4 minutes). Andrew Bynum played 24 games this season and was out for two months, but needs more than three weeks to "learn" Indiana's "system"? Bro, bro... bro. Come on, bro.

cwolff

02-24-2014, 01:17 AM

Is Jason Collins with the Nets just a stunt to sell tickets? I read that he's on a 10 day contract. Can he still play and did they pass up on better players in order to court a little celebrity?

Atlanteax

02-24-2014, 11:29 AM

Keller

02-24-2014, 11:37 AM

I'd love to get rid of George Hill. LOVE LOVE LOVE.

Bynum signing was to prevent Miami signing a legit big man. Without a legit big man, Miami might not even get past Chicago. Good luck to them against Indy, especially if Bynum gets into the rotation.

Vogel is smart not to instantly insert Bynum. Unlike Collins, who is the consummate team player, Bynum is a pre-Madonna. Keep him out of Miami, give him a few pieces of humble pie, and see if we can get a stretch run out of him once he realizes his place on this TEAM. Vogel and Bird didn't need to tamper with superstars to construct a contender like Riley did. Let's give them a little credit for their basketball acumen.

Keller

02-24-2014, 11:40 AM

Latrinsorm

02-24-2014, 01:14 PM

Is Jason Collins with the Nets just a stunt to sell tickets? I read that he's on a 10 day contract. Can he still play and did they pass up on better players in order to court a little celebrity?Well, here's (http://hoopshype.com/free_agency/centers.htm) a list of free agent centers. Collins has 714 games in the league and is 35, and also has playing history with Garnett/Pierce and Johnson.

-Camby is the only one with more experience and was a much better player, but at 39 that's probably not the case anymore.

-Przybilla was also a better player with close to the same experience, but had some pretty severe knee injuries and given the league-wide lack of interest might never have regained his form.

-The only other reasonable experience comps are Desagana Diop and Kwame Brown, and boy, you'd really have to stretch to find evidence that they're better players than Collins.

-You could argue that the Nets should be looking for youth with upside (like Orton or Melo) but they already have Plumlee and apparently aren't interested.

I don't see any better options for a bench big, and it is only a 10 day contract: low reward, no risk move.
pre-MadonnaArguably a better comp than prima donna. I like it.
Let's give them a little credit for their basketball acumen.Hey man, it was Larry who explicitly said they were bringing Bynum in to play, and before the signing I predicted that he'd be a good fit for the Pacer system and bench needs. That's why it's so odd that he's not playing, and there's a lot of middle ground between "instantly" and "a month later".

Kembal

02-24-2014, 05:19 PM

Agree with Latrin on Collins. I don't think it's a publicity stunt...Nets were trying to get Glen Davis first, but I think Davis went to the Clippers, and they needed a big man.

Keller

02-24-2014, 05:54 PM

Drew as a young child.

http://media.giphy.com/media/2XskdWmzJhvuTZA09XO/giphy.gif

Latrinsorm

02-24-2014, 06:03 PM

Guys,

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v456/johnnyoldschool/crossingthestreams_zps87bb3685.png

I have never been terribly convinced that I really exist, and this ridiculously implausible coincidence seals it. Therefore: Heat rules, #1.

Drew

02-24-2014, 06:40 PM

Bynum is a pre-Madonna.

I know you're a smart guy so I'm going to assume this was meant to troll Latrin.

Drew

02-24-2014, 06:42 PM

Drew as a young child.

http://media.giphy.com/media/2XskdWmzJhvuTZA09XO/giphy.gif

Haha this is surprisingly accurate. I still prefer to hide my pasty-whites under the jersey undershirt. Also Latrin don't shit up this thread with your weird obsessions, you already have 5 threads about this girl to do it in.

Latrinsorm

02-24-2014, 07:05 PM

There's no running from the Heat!!! Come on!!!

Latrinsorm

02-24-2014, 11:27 PM

Also, the line immediately preceding it is "don't turnaround". Isn't that the perfect advice LeBron embraced following the 2011 season? Don't settle for complicated footwork jumpers, get to the hole or spot up for three.

IT'S ALL COMING TOGETHER.

Latrinsorm

02-25-2014, 02:04 PM

Oh, the Knicks. JR (http://espn.go.com/new-york/nba/story/_/id/10514495/jr-smith-new-york-knicks-says-tug-vince-carter-headband-only-illusion) says he didn't tug Vince's headband, it was only an illusion, everyone has a good laugh. Ray Ray (http://espn.go.com/new-york/nba/story/_/id/10514816/raymond-felton-new-york-knicks-arrested-weapons-charges) says he didn't threaten his wife with an unregistered firearm, it was only an illusion, everyone... seriously. Could you ask for more dramatic illustration of the fact that JR is a lovable scamp as opposed to some boogeyman ruining basketball? Puts it in perspective, that's all I'm saying.

Meanwhile the Knicks are 6 games and 3 teams back of the playoffs, are hemorrhaging players from their roster, and have no first round pick. The Pacers are 1.5 (and after tonight almost certainly 2) games ahead of the Heat, which is a surprise to me. They were up 4.5 in late January, but since then they've gone 9-6 to Miami's 11-2. The research I did before says your record is pretty much what it's going to be after 50 games (they've played 55 and 54 games respectively) but 1.5 games is pretty close, especially with two head to head matchups remaining. Even more important, the Heat are a game ahead of San Antonio and the same 1.5 games behind OKC for overall #1 seed. This thing might not be over just yet.

Latrinsorm

02-25-2014, 06:02 PM

The way basketball players remember their stats is really interesting. Obviously when they talk about coming through in the clutch it's all nonsense, just like any other person who believes in that fairy tale, but they can display astonishing accuracy for real numbers. Today I listened to Horace Grant's delightful interview (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkVxSezwdAQ) by Bill Simmons, and one thing they talked about was the Orlando-Chicago series in 1995 (after Grant had been traded from the Bulls to the Magic). Horace made an offhand remark that he had shot 65% in that series. Actual stat? 44 for 68, 64.7%. He could have prepped before this interview or any of innumerable others, but I suspect it's something he just remembers. Nice job, General!

Latrinsorm

02-25-2014, 09:54 PM

Come back, Antoine! There will(/may/could) be fours. (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10517078/nba-weighing-expanded-court-4-point-shot)

Personally I think it makes a lot of sense. The NBA started in 1950, introduced the 3 pointer in 1980, we're past due for 4s. Looking at the stats, NBA players in 2013 shot...

32.3% from 27 to 28 feet,
26.8% to 29,
20.3% to 30,
20.5% to 31,
14.8% to 34,
3.1% beyond. (Halfcourt is 41' 9" from the basket.)

We would expect players to adapt, and we know basketball possessions shouldn't be worth a heck of a lot more than a point, so 29 feet 9 inches for the 4 point line. This also rules out corner shots because it's only 25 feet from the basket to the sideline.

Latrinsorm

02-28-2014, 04:45 PM

Fun game last night with the Heat and Knicks. The crazy uruk-hai mask definitely cut down on LeBron's peripheral vision: to me it was most apparent on off-ball defense, where he is usually excellent at seeing the ball and his man, but last night the Knicks were able to roam pretty freely. Of course, the Knicks also roamed pretty freely on transition defense, and LeBron apparently decided that being unable to look to the side he would just bull rush straight ahead at every opportunity. His shot charts are always ridiculous but last night he had went 11 of 12 in the paint, just absurd.

My favorite part though was Dwyane Wade's analogy for teams: by and large he had to give up the driver's seat to LeBron, but he's still in the car, and everyone gets to the same place. Can I help but contrast this unfavorably with Kobe's stubborn insistence that it's his team, it's his way or the highway, and also it's his highway? Would you rather have Kobe for $24m or Dwight for $21m?

.

Another interesting development is that the Heat after three excellent defensive performances (87, 96, 92) have crept up to 12th in DRtg, while Indy is still limping along below average at 17th in offense. I also read a report that Bynum is at least another week out, and Evan Turner is clearly not giving them a bump on that end. Why the Legend went after a wing that can't shoot and can't pass is beyond me.

Latrinsorm

03-01-2014, 06:20 PM

Adam Silver gives no f's whatsoever (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10538140/adam-silver-open-changing-format-nba-playoffs-draft).

-Change the lottery to the wheel? Sure.
-Change the playoffs such that there are play-in games for low seeds? Sure.
-The NCAA is bullshit and the NBA should get involved in college sports? Sure.
-Reduce/eliminate back-to-backs / extreme travel between games? Sure.

Watch out for this guy. Like they say in Tackleford, things are going to change.

Latrinsorm

03-02-2014, 09:29 PM

Buyouts and more buyouts! All told:

Clippers add Glen Davis and Danny Granger. Davis is indispensable for a team that was playing Ryan friggin' Hollins as their third big. Granger is indispensable if Redick is done for the season, and even if not he's a big step up from Willie Green. A+. They've got some ground to make up but with Paul healthy it's very plausible they come out of the West.

Thunder add Caron Butler, which is weird on its face because... Caron Butler?, but also because the 2-4-4 they run suggests he would be replacing Derek Fisher, which hardly seems worth it. If they knew Thabo was going to go down with injury, okay, but it seems like getting Granger from the get go would have made more sense.

Bulls add Jimmer. The Bulls have always been desperate for spacing, DJ Augustin's inexplicable hot streak has been the only thing keeping their shooting above atrocious. It's also distantly possible that they could upset Indiana in round 2: they match up well against size, Indiana would be in agony trying to score against an elite defensive team, Noah can pull Hibbert out with the pass rather than the 3, Paul George has gone hero ball to his and the team's detriment and Chicago can drink that kind of milkshake right up, add a little Jimmer magic and...? Of course, that all depends on the Heat passing Indiana, because the Bulls have 0 shot against the Heat.

Grizz add Udrih. The Gasol injury just killed them this year, and having no backup point guard hasn't helped. They were probably going to get in the playoffs anyway, and this probably doesn't get them out of the 7-8 seed killzone, but it'll at least make the rest of the season easier for another team desperate for spacing.

The Heat were reportedly after Butler, but I don't see the point. They've started to go back to the 2-5-3 they ran the last two years, with Oden filling the role of third big and Rashard Lewis falling out of the rotation as the 6th wing. I would much rather have Rashard than Butler, and Beasley or Battier would be the next obvious choices and are even stronger. If the Heat did want a fourth big, they've still got Haslem and could even throw Rashard or LeBron out there as a desperation stretch 5.

Ben Gordon can go somewhere but not play in the playoffs, so... probably doesn't matter. (Also he is Ben Gordon.)

.

All told the Pacers, Blazers, and Thunder didn't address the glaring holes in their roster, the Heat are ahead of the game from last year (when they won the NBA title), the Clippers are getting very interesting, the Rockets took a small step up, and the Spurs will probably come out of the West anyway, because Duncan.

Keller

03-03-2014, 10:21 AM

Best team in the NBA. 2.5 games ahead of the "Team of the Decade."

I think the Pacers are doing alright, Latrin. I think they are doing all right.

Also, there were no PGs available worth picking up.

Latrinsorm

03-03-2014, 03:24 PM

Of course the Pacers are doing alright, there's only been a couple games played since buyouts. My point is that they've lost a march on other teams. Turner still can't shoot or pass, Lavoy Allen isn't getting minutes, reports are that Bynum is going to be out until at least mid-March. I don't know how many times a player played less than 20 games with a team and contributed anything worthwhile in the playoffs, but I have to guess it's few if any. Everybody talks about PJ Brown, but go look up what he actually did and ask yourself if 3 points and 2.5 rebounds a game with a -18.5 on/off are even an improvement over Mahinmi's dreadful production.

If you're the best and everyone but you gets better, reiterating that you're the best might actually be a contraction of you were the best.

Latrinsorm

03-04-2014, 06:43 PM

LeBron scoring all the points, blah blah blah.

But did you know that LeBron is 4th in the number of post-merger 50 point games? Jordan, Kobe, AI, LeBron.

Did you know that LeBron has shot at least 50% from the field and had at least 5 assists in every of his ten 50 point games? By comparison...
Jordan 30(!) and 15 of 31
Kobe 18 and 4(!) of 24
AI 10 and 9 of 11

In terms of team wins and losses...
LeBron 80.0%
Jordan 74.2%
Kobe 70.8%
AI 54.5%

I had been thinking this the other day in the Black Mask Game, but LeBron has never really been a point guard in a forward's body, a John Stockton brain put in Karl Malone. He's always been a combo guard in a forward's body, a Gilbert Arenas brain in Julius Erving.

.

Full stats:

MP FG FGA FT FTA R A S B T P
LeBron 440 178 308 121 155 74 81 16 7 33 530
Michael 1313 619 1016 403 456 236 140 104 37 89 1677
Kobe 1058 445 824 326 365 154 82 38 11 66 1317
AI 541 224 409 148 183 58 62 31 2 51 635

Interesting ratios:

APG A/T FTr FG% PPP
LeBron 8.10 2.45 0.503 57.8% 1.295
Michael 4.52 1.57 0.449 60.9% 1.284
Kobe 3.42 1.24 0.443 54.0% 1.254
AI 5.55 1.22 0.473 55.1% 1.165

Obviously it's pretty neat that LeBron averaged more assists per game than Michael and Kobe put together for 50 point games, and more assists per game than his career as a whole (almost but not quite explained by the bump in minutes played), and a better assist to turnover ratio than his career. Some guys choose the shot instead of the pass to get to big point games (e.g. Carmelo and 0 assists), LeBron isn't one of those guys.

It's pretty obvious that every players' FTr would be higher than their career's, but it's interesting that the effect isn't uniform: for their careers it goes Michael .358 Kobe .389 AI .410 LeBron .430. We would expect LeBron's to come down a little as he ages and attacks less (unless he is an immortal basketball cyborg), but Michael's jump is always going to be the eyepopper.

It's also interesting that the top 3 efficiencies all end up at about the same difference for their careers: Kobe .981 LeBron 1.019 Jordan 1.031.

.

Also in looking through this it's incredible that LeBron is going to pass AI in career points next year. He's still never going to catch Kareem or Karl, but the names he's passing are still pretty shocking.

Warriorbird

03-04-2014, 06:50 PM

Latrin's basically a Yankees fan.

Latrinsorm

03-04-2014, 07:48 PM

Are Yankee fans big on stats? The only discussions I've ever had with Yankee fans is them snickering at me for being a Mets fan.

Wait a minute, Yankee fans like Jeter! They're the least advanced stats fan base ever. Good day, sir.

I SAID GOOD DAY.

Warriorbird

03-05-2014, 12:49 AM

Keller

03-05-2014, 01:44 PM

Oh Amare.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BZiyVl0IYAAP-zt.jpg

Latrinsorm

03-05-2014, 02:24 PM

Paying lots of money for players and then they underperform is very very Yankees.Well, if we look at millions of dollars spent on players per point of Pythagorean winning percentage, the NBA average is currently $1.49 and the Heat are at $1.14, so they seem to be ahead of the game. The full list sorted from highest payroll to lowest:

$2.37 *Brooklyn
$2.23 *New York
$1.14 *Miami
$2.36 *LA Lakers
$1.37 *Chicago
$1.03 *LA Clippers
$1.10 *Golden State
$1.37 *Memphis
$1.17 *Toronto
$1.93 *Boston
$1.35 *Washington
$0.96 *Oklahoma City
$1.09 *Minnesota
$1.18 *Dallas
$0.90 *Indiana
$1.62 *New Orleans
$1.84 *Cleveland
$1.53 *Denver
$0.91 *San Antonio
$1.52 *Charlotte
$1.50 *Detroit
$1.50 *Sacramento
$0.94 *Portland
$1.26 *Atlanta
$0.89 *Houston
$1.68 *Orlando
$1.89 *Utah
$0.90 *Phoenix
$2.25 *Milwaukee
$2.85 *Philadelphia

The list sorted by best bargain finders to worst:

$0.89 *Houston
$0.90 *Indiana
$0.90 *Phoenix
$0.91 *San Antonio
$0.94 *Portland
$0.96 *Oklahoma City
$1.03 *LA Clippers
$1.09 *Minnesota
$1.10 *Golden State
$1.14 *Miami
$1.17 *Toronto
$1.18 *Dallas
$1.26 *Atlanta
$1.35 *Washington
$1.37 *Memphis
$1.37 *Chicago
$1.50 *Sacramento
$1.50 *Detroit
$1.52 *Charlotte
$1.53 *Denver
$1.62 *New Orleans
$1.68 *Orlando
$1.84 *Cleveland
$1.89 *Utah
$1.93 *Boston
$2.23 *New York
$2.25 *Milwaukee
$2.36 *LA Lakers
$2.37 *Brooklyn
$2.85 *Philadelphia
It's probably relevant that every contender is in the top 10.
Oh Amare.This is what I worry about Anthony Davis, that he'll just never get how to play NBA defense. At the same time, if your floor is a pre-microfracture Amar'e you're in pretty good shape.

Latrinsorm

03-05-2014, 08:54 PM

I noticed the Pacers scoring 8 friggin' points against Charlotte in the first quarter and thought I would update everyone on Paul George 2013 vs. 2014 in this season, especially because it happens that each sample is 30 games...

2013: 23.8 points, 28.3% USG, 47.1% FG, 39.9% 3P, 105 AST / 77 TOV = 1.36, +10.9 per game, 114 ORtg
2014: 21.5 points, 29.0% USG, 40.4% FG, 35.1% 3P, 105 AST / 83 TOV = 1.27, +4.6 per game, 104 ORtg

The decline has been precipitous, to say the least. Every category has gotten worse. It happens that LeBron also had 30 games in 2013 and 26 so far in 2014, here they are:

2013: 25.5 points, 29.4% USG, 59.0% FG, 41.5% 3P, 199 AST / 102 TOV = 1.95, +4.4 per game, 123 ORtg
2014: 29.6 points, 32.7% USG, 57.4% FG, 34.5% 3P, 160 AST / 90 TOV = 1.78, +5.9 per game, 122 ORtg

Up in some areas, down in others, overall figures still sterling. The Pacers have mercifully clawed their way back into the game with an 11-1 run... as Paul George sits on the bench and watches. That's not helping the ±.

Latrinsorm

03-06-2014, 03:46 PM

Congrats to the Pacers for clinching the first playoff spot.

But after limping into the high teens in ORtg, last night's stinker has them back down to #21. Alleged superstar Paul George put up an unbelievable 0 for 9, 1 assist to 5 turnovers, -38 performance, dropping his 2014 ± over a point to +3.3. The Pacers were so bad that Charlotte could have waved off their entire 2nd quarter and still won. That probably happens a lot and Charlotte is no joke, but still.

The Heat can close to 1 game back with a win tonight. The teams play 4 games this season and are 1-1 so far. Both remaining games will come on non-back-to-backs for both teams, although Indiana has road games before each matchup while Miami will travel to Indy after a home game. Clearly, Indy needs to win both those games not just for separation but for potential tiebreaker purposes. The honeymoon is over, the Pacers aren't playing with house money and just happy to be here anymore. If they lose those two games, does that mean they can't handle the pressure and need to learn how to win in pressure situations like the pressure cooker of playoff pressure? Of course not.

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Various reports that Riley turned down a Haslem for Turner trade because loyalty and la cosa nostra.

First of all, when did Evan Turner become Clyde friggin' Drexler? He's got a career 12.2 PER and .045 WS/48, his playoff stats (in limited time, to be fair) are even worse, he's not changing the fortunes of the NBA. I pooh-pooh Allen but at least Allen can shoot.

Second of all, Miami already has approximately 19 wing players: LeBron, Wade, Battier, Beasley, Allen are all in the rotation, Lewis has been in and out, Jones and Liggins are waiting on the bench. Meanwhile for all the talk of Miami going big this year, they still only play 3 bigs in Bosh, Andersen, and Oden. Haslem played 0 minutes in February, and he's still the only other credible big on the roster outside of LeBron, who isn't fair.

So let's stop with the idea that Riley put his heart ahead of his basketball mind. The trade makes no sense for Miami. (And frankly, didn't make a hell of a lot of sense for Indy either.) Turner would never play for the Heat while Haslem might, the trade would put them even further over the tax while weakening the roster.

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Also various reports that Carmelo is being recruited to Chicago. This would be terrible for everyone involved.

1. Boozer would have to be amnestied. He's one of the worst defenders in the league, and he doesn't really make up for it with his offense. Fine. But he is still a legit NBA power forward, and Carmelo isn't exactly a defensive stopper at the 4. Everyone knows the Bulls are a big, bruising team, but actually they play as many bigs in their rotation as Miami's 3: Noah, Boozer, Gibson. Miami got away with playing a 2 big rotation during the regular season because they have LeBron, and LeBron is not fair. Carmelo is not LeBron. Rose is not LeBron. Which brings me to my next point...

2. How are Carmelo and Rose supposed to work together? The track record of putting two 30+ USG guys together is not good, especially when one is a notorious ball stopper. Carmelo's only significant playoff success did come alongside Chauncey Billups, but Chauncey (1) could shoot 3s and (2) was a pure point player, used to not finishing plays at the rate Rose does: Chauncey's USG never cracked 25, since his rookie year Rose's has never been below 27. There's only one ball, and it doesn't matter who Carmelo's kid's favorite player is if Carmelo is the one playing alongside him.

3. The reason Boozer would have to be amnestied is the Bulls are already over the cap for next year. Their roster with the proposed amnesty and sign, which only lets Carmelo get $15m a year:

Rose
Carmelo Butler Dunleavy Snell
Noah Gibson

That's not a team, let alone a contender, and that's assuming Rose returns to All-Star form. Rose has played 49 of the last 230 games, or 21%. I wouldn't bet 4 years of my future on that, would you? Why should Carmelo? The 2011 Heat had the best player in the game, a top 5 player in Wade, and a top 25 player in Bosh. Noah is top 25, if we're very generous Carmelo is top 5, but Rose has never been more than top 10, and that was two season-ending knee injuries ago for one year. With no supporting cast they'd be lucky to get out of the second round, and while I have (fairly) castigated the Pacers for not going for a ring they are clearly going to be favored to reach the ECF for years to come.

4. Chicago has one of the worst front offices in the league. It's still a step up from the New York circus, but not much of one. What other franchise has so alienated a top-5 coach that he's rumored to rather work for Jimmy Dolan? What other franchise has misdiagnosed and mistreated a player's ailment so badly they almost died (Luol Deng)? Basketball is a game, life is not. We've all had lousy jobs, but we haven't all had the leverage Carmelo has. He has plenty of other options, and although it's ironic that the Lakers as the other marquee location are just as much of a fiasco, the truth is that the marquee is where the wins are. New Orleans, Dallas, Phoenix... any of these are dramatically better options than Chicago or LA.

DoctorUnne

03-07-2014, 09:03 AM

I don't know what was more shocking the Spurs game or the Clippers game

Keller

03-07-2014, 09:46 AM

Spurs were a choke job, bad coaching, and a questionable call away from winning the championship last year. Not sure there is anything surprising about them taking the third or fourth best team in the East to the woodshed last night.

Latrinsorm

03-07-2014, 04:32 PM

I am shocked - shocked! that Keller would criticize the Heat after a loss. Shocked!

Anyway, here's why I don't feel the need to belabor the Heat's weaknesses the way I do Indiana's: we've been here before with the Heat, quite a few times. They can devolve into hero ball on offense, their most productive bench wings are atrocious on defense (first James Jones and Mike Miller, now Ray Allen and Michael Beasley), a certain arbitrarily selected subset of their games has a losing record (v. the Bulls, close games, v. the Celtics, v. the Pacers, they start slow, they can't finish, whatever dumb thing someone thinks up this year). With all that, the Heat have won 10 of the last 18 Finals games. We know these first two tendencies aren't helping the Heat, but they aren't crippling them either.

The real story of last night was how poor the officiating was. The best barometer for that is when both teams are irate over every call. I couldn't believe Tim Duncan didn't catch a T when he spiked the ball in anger, Chris Andersen had to be dragged away from a ref. For reference, Chris Andersen has 8 career technicals and the gritty blue collar old school just knows how to win Big Fundamental that plays the game the right way has 77, including three seasons with more than 8.

Another interesting result was that LeBron's on/off actually improved this game: -10 on - -14 off = +4 on/off. :D

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I am very much looking forward to the nationally televised Rockets-Pacers game tonight, because I suspect it will explode the narrative that Paul George always guards the opposing team's best player. The Rockets are a great test case because Harden is only 1 position and 3 inches away from George. We'll see how it goes.

Latrinsorm

03-07-2014, 07:17 PM

Bill Simmons is obsessed with history. One result is that he has started interviewing living legends of basketball: Dr. J, Nique, possibly Bob Pettit, and now the Iceman. My favorite of all of these is this quote from Gervin:

"Why'm I gonna shoot from 18 feet when I know I can make 12?"

It's a simple game!!! Get that percentage, get those wins.

Latrinsorm

03-08-2014, 03:11 PM

As it turns out, George was on Harden for at least 50 out of 51 half court possessions when they were both on the floor, and the last one was semi-transition anyway. I was pretty surprised, but I was really surprised that Houston put Harden on George... and he did a really good job! I also think Houston demonstrated a potential blueprint to busting Indiana's defense: if you have multiple capable perimeter ball handlers (e.g. Harden, Parsons, Beverley) George can only guard one of them, and he seems very prone to overhelping, repeatedly getting burned for back cuts by Harden. Hill is an average on-ball defender at best, Stephenson is chaos which is sometimes great and sometimes not. I would expect any disciplined and talented offensive team to expose the Pacer defense in the playoffs, whether it's the Heat, Spurs, Rockets, or Clippers. The way the Pacers took the Heat to 7 games last year was (1) a little bit of luck and (2) with offense. The Heat in the regular season put up a 112.3 ORtg, in the ECF it was a 111.9; the Pacers against a top-10 defense went from 104.3 to 107.2, smashing their season marks in shooting and drawing fouls. Maybe it was a match-up thing, or maybe they got luckier than we thought.

We also got further evidence that Evan Turner is not the missing piece: 5 points and an incredible -20 in 15 minutes, 0 assists to 2 turnovers, and 3 of those points came on a miracle banked three pointer that would have been a perfect Tim Duncan facsimile if it came from 10 feet closer. Chris Copeland again looked good in garbage time, so obviously he won't get any minutes over Turner because...?

It's interesting that both Miami and Indiana control their own destiny as far as the one seed is concerned: if either team wins out, they will finish with the best record outright in the Eastern Conference.

Latrinsorm

03-08-2014, 03:28 PM

Another weird thing: in the "copyright of the NBA express written permission blah blah blah" commercial the six players depicted were LeBron, Durant, Carmelo, George, Blake, and Dirk.

-LeBron and Durant are no-brainers.

-You can talk me into Blake, especially because this is primarily an advertisement, and Blake is a younger player in a major market whose game brings all the boys to the yard.

-Carmelo? He's not young, for all his talk about how he's not used to losing his teams haven't done a hell of a lot of winning. New York, okay, but we've already got LA covered and if we're going by media market we should throw Steph Curry in, who has a much more exciting game (and slightly better stats) too.

-Dirk?? Incredibly he's still a top-10 player statistically, but the same problems with Carmelo are exaggerated here. Feels a little "token white guy", and if so we should go with a top-3 statistical player in Kevin Love instead.

-Paul George's spot should go to Chris Paul on merit, and while it makes sense in an ad to have one player max per team I don't get how George gets the nod over Anthony Davis, who is about 12 years old and is already putting up better stats. I would rather have Paul George on my team this year, but again this is an ad. People don't watch basketball for solid pick and roll defense and mid range jump shots. People watch basketball for insane out of position blocks and dunks.

LeBron, Durant, Blake, Curry, Love, Davis. That's what it ought to be.

Latrinsorm

03-09-2014, 06:00 PM

I couldn't figure out why they used a Maroon 5 instrumental going to commercial, then I remembered that it was nearly Sunday morning.

Why isn't Wade beloved? Doesn't take 3s, devoted post-up and mid-range game, happy to dish out hard fouls, feisty, undersized, no tattoos... the dude's a total throwback.

Reason #57,687 why people who say LeBron should have stayed in Cleveland need to check themselves (before they wreck themselves): LeBron James played 548 games in Cleveland. His most frequent teammates were Zydrunas (90%) Varejao (68%) Pavlovic (53%) Gooden (51%). LeBron should have brought other superstars to play with him!!!!! Him and who else? Cleveland outside of LeBron was populated by stiffs his entire career - they produced 2 All-Stars in 7 years, neither of whom were starters, one of whom was an injury replacement.

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The Heat should have won, and they should feel bad they lost. To keep perspective, though, which 3 game stretch would you rather have?
-Narrow loss to the Warriors, blown out at Bobcats, blown out at Rockets.
-Narrow loss at Rockets, blown out at Spurs, loss at Bulls.
I'll take the lower margin of loss at more road games, Alex.

Atlanteax

03-11-2014, 04:47 PM

3 minutes gem for Latrin's fanboi-ness

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=GMtfK1RiAPc

Latrinsorm

03-11-2014, 05:50 PM

I noticed yesterday that the much-lauded Bulls (including by myself) were actually still the 4 seed in the East, and the 3 seed Raptors who no one cares about (including myself) were actually top ten in offense and defense, so I went ahead and watched their game with the Nets.

-Kyle Lowry is a maniac. Almost every fan will try to rattle opposing free throw shooters even though it has absolutely no empirical effect. A few players will try to do the same, e.g. Ronny Turiaf throwing a towel in the air. I have never seen someone do what I saw Lowry do twice in a row from the bench last night: stand up and yell at the opposing free throw taker as he is about to release the shot. It makes sense because the eye is drawn to change rather than noise, but it also makes no sense because WHO DOES THAT? Kyle Lowry. And this competitiveness/psychopathy carries over onto the court: he'll take any shot (but doesn't have to take every shot), play exactly the same with two fouls in the 1st quarter as two fouls in the 4th quarter, scrap with anyone for a rebound, kibitz every call by the refs. And it (mostly) works! He's a hair short of the 20 PER / .200 WS/48 club, which would make him the tenth man on this year's squad: Durant, LeBron, Love, Blake, Curry, Harden, Paul, Dirk, Anthony Davis.

-The rest of the starting group is also solid, and with some upside. Valanciunias is going to be a starter in the NBA for a long time, Amir Johnson is the most effective rim finisher I've seen who never dunks the ball, it's really astonishing. They play a 3 guard look with Lowry, Terrence Ross, and DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan is a classic volume scorer, iffy passer, can't hit 3s. You wouldn't want to build a team around him, but when Ross and Lowry are exceptional 3 shooters the spacing works, and DeRozan mostly takes shots in the flow of the offense. This is another really striking thing watching Toronto, it seems loaded with ball stoppers and bad passers but the ball moves on offense. The only real stops I saw were from John Salmons and DeRozan, but they were a lot less frequent than I'd have thought.

-Salmons is a pretty glaring weakness, but it's important to consider the Raptors' roster flux. Jettisoning Rudy Gay was a major upgrade but those 18 games still count. Patrick Patterson is a big loss, not least because his replacement appears to be the spacing-challenged Chuck Hayes. They're not getting Rudy Gay back, they're probably getting Patterson back, the rest of the bench is serious: Vasquez, Novak, Hansbrough (currently sporting a ridiculous 1.007 FTr). Never underestimate how much fun it must be to foul Tyler Hansbrough. He has a slim chance of becoming only the fourth player ever to play 1000+ MP with >1 FTr, after Arnie Johnson of the 1953 Rochester Royals, Reggie Evans of the 2003 Seattle SuperSonics, and Danny Fortson of the 2005 Sonics.

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Which brings me to the Pacers, who are finally pulling the trigger on Andrew Bynum. They have 19 games left in the regular season, and have been keeping Bynum out allegedly because of knee issues, so we would expect him to miss several of them. I have no idea how they expect to develop any chemistry, he couldn't be more different on offense from Mahinmi and Indiana has a really poor track record for their bench...

1. The aforementioned Hansbrough's role is the closest match year-to-year: 16/17 minutes a game, scrap for rebounds like an exceptionally uncoordinated octopus, yelp like a kicked puppy at all times. One pretty big change is the Raptors have cut the long 2s from his game in favor of getting close to the basket, which makes a lot of sense when you find out he was shooting a painful 33.7% on those long 2s last year. Overall his PER is 97% of last year to USG of 76%, his WS/48 is 105%. Improved.

2. Gerald Green has had a bumpy career to say the least, but last year was the biggest bump in quite a while. This year he has enjoyed an enormous renaissance: 165% PER to only 108% USG, 218%(!!) WS/48. Dramatically improved.

3. Similar story with D.J. Augustin. After 4 years of being league average to middling in Charlotte, he went to Indy last year and was poor, went to Toronto this year and was atrocious, came to Chicago and has been Saved. 148% PER but to 142% USG, but 146% WS/48 stands on its own. Improved.

4. In the mirror is C.J. Watson. 6 years of middling play around the NBA, has seen reduced touches and proportionally reduced production, and greatly reduced 3 point effectiveness on a team that desperately needs it. All told: 90% PER to 94% USG, 108% WS/48. No change.

5. Luis Scola has the best excuse for not playing as well, because he's coming off the bench after years of starting. Still: 77% PER on 100% USG, 83% WS/48. Probably relevant is that he's seen a huge uptick in long 2s, which I think says a lot about the fundamental flaws in Indiana's system. Decline.

Other guys didn't play last year or this year (Miles Plumlee, Sam Young, Jeff Ayres, Chris Copeland) or have barely played after the switch (Danny Granger, Andrew Bynum, Evan Turner) so aren't helpful for this analysis. Bynum has been a fantastically effective offensive player when healthy since 2008 (the first year the "Kobe" Lakers made the Finals, coincidence?) but between catastrophic injury, Indiana's bench mismanagement, and rushing to find a fit it doesn't look good.

Latrinsorm

03-11-2014, 06:43 PM

A coda to that last thought: the Pacers after 63 games sport a 105.0 ORtg (21st, 98.8 +) and 98.2 DRtg (1st, 92.4 +), and the 2004 Pistons had similarly lopsided values of 6.6 Rtg margin and 99.1 and 92.7 Rtg+s... but in the 26 games following the Rasheed pickup the Pistons posted an incendiary 106.0 ORtg to 90.9 DRtg. We'll see how the Pacers do with Bynum in the lineup.

DoctorUnne

03-14-2014, 07:58 PM

Somehow going to win my fantasy basketball league despite tanking FTs and TOs. Kyle Lowry is a big reason why.

FT% = 68% (thanks to Howard, Josh Smith, Cousins, Drummond and DeAndre Jordan)
FG% = 47% somehow only in 3rd despite all those bigs. Thank you Josh Smith
1,642 turnovers. 2nd place has 1,493 and 3rd has 1,451.
4,803 rebounds. 2nd place has 4,416 and 3rd has 3,797.
628 blocks. 2nd place has 584 and 3rd has 482.
1st place in rebounds, steals and blocks. 2nd in points and assists

Latrinsorm

03-14-2014, 08:35 PM

Josh Smith's yearly change in FT% is incredible: peak to peak is 20%. 20%!!! Josh Smith and Chris Webber are the only players in NBA history to have 3 or more seasons of >70% and <60% from the line (with at least 200 attempts), and Webber's were at least progressive (low early high late). J-Smoove shot an aggregate 70% his first four years, then 60% the next two, then 68% the next two, then 53% the last two. ???

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See if you can guess the three NBA franchises with the longest postseason streaks heading into this season.

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16 - San Antonio
10 - Denver
8 - Lakers
The first one is obvious. The second one was very surprising to me, especially given that they've been bounced in the first round for 9 of those trips, an incredibly uniform level of okayness. The surprising thing about the third one is that it isn't higher, but then you remember how a certain mamba led only the second squad since the merger that failed to reach the postseason.

Obviously the big kahuna is in this year as well, the third team is definitely out, and the second team is almost certainly out. Who, then, will take their places? Miami will definitely be at 6, tied with Boston (out) and Chicago (in). Atlanta is currently at 6 straight and the 8 seed in the EC, 3.5 games ahead of the Knicks. Yes! It is still totally plausible that the Knicks get into the playoffs with a sub-.400 winning percentage! The last teams to do so were the 88 Spurs, 86 Bulls, and 68 Bulls. The 86 Bulls had Jordan's 63 point game, and there are four really remarkable things about that:

1. Jordan led the team with 6 assists. All four other starters combined had 5.
2. His teammate Orlando Woolridge put up 24 points on 32 touches.
3. His other teammate George Gervin put up 0 points on 0 touches in 5 minutes played of a 58 minute game.
4. Jordan made and attempted 0 three pointers.

Anyway, the moral of the story is that the San Antonio streak will be more than twice as long as the second longest, whether it's Atlanta at 7 or the teams at 6, and the moral of that story is that tanking works when you draft Tim Duncan.

cwolff

03-16-2014, 12:36 PM

Come on Cav's;
You can do it!

This is really cool. Glad to see something positive from the Cavaliers.

http://nextimpulsesports.com/2014/03/14/cleveland-cavaliers-pregame-court-projection-just-plain-awesome/

Keller

03-16-2014, 02:44 PM

http://www.the-mainboard.com/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/smugdog.png

Latrinsorm

03-16-2014, 08:16 PM

I watched a Wizards game the other day, and you know what? John Wall on the court reminds me a lot of young Jordan...

-Has a quick first step but what sets him apart is his continued acceleration. Multiple times he would get side by side with Deron on the first step and by the time he got to the rim he was six feet past him.

-Very similar frames, tall and skinny.

-Very similar running style, a kind of hunched over loping. Compare with Dwyane Wade's upright gliding, or Kevin Durant's rubber rocking horse routine, or LeBron's 10º declination of demolition.

-Gets hot under the collar. Somebody was yapping at him on the Brooklyn bench (Jason Terry 1:1 odds) so he started draining triples left and right. Oops!

-Gets away with a ton, a ton of travels. Not even the LeBron/Dwight crab dribble routine, just blatantly taking 3 steps on a drive.

He's not quite as tall or athletic as Jordan, he's more on the playmaker side, and this did all happen against the Nets, but still. Fun to watch, fun to look into the future. Now if Otto Porter could get his butt in gear...