NBA 2013-2014 Season!!!!!

[Keller]

Wade is fruitier than Latrin in capri's and a parasol.

[Latrinsorm]

The Heat lose a few games and Latrin has a new NBA crush?I appreciate all good basketball. If you were so jealous of my parasol you could have just asked me where I got it.
The European soccer flop diva have infiltrated the NBA. What's next, the NHL? Oh, right, the Canadiens.Some food (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1075469/) for thought. Quotes:

"The most reliable eye-catcher is still the pratfall. Particularly on defense, when everything else fails, I fall down."

"I have faked out my man. He has jumped too soon and come down. He can't possibly block my shot. But instead of going straight up, I gamble by jumping lightly into him. The brush should not disturb my shooting and may earn me a foul shot as well."

[DoctorUnne]

I watched a Wizards game the other day, and you know what? John Wall on the court reminds me a lot of young Jordan...

I've loved Wall, ever since I saw him play in the NCAA tournament for Kentucky. He had one play where he was guarding a Cornell dude close up, the Cornell guy tried to throw a pass inside over Wall's head, and Wall just jumped up and straight up caught the ball, went the other way and scored. It was ridiculous. I think I've seen him do it a couple of times in the NBA too.

[Latrinsorm]

Watched the Pacers-Knicks game out of morbid interest, and was thoroughly rewarded.

I don't know if Vogel is trying to drive me crazy with his use of Copeland, but... Vogel is trying to drive me crazy with his use of Copeland. He's sworn up and down that Copeland is his fifth big, even though Copeland is clearly a wing player. Enter the second quarter last night: Indy can't buy a basket, Hibbert has just taken his third foul, Mahinmi has 3 fouls, West is already out there, Scola just went to the bench and is old so can't come back. Who should we bring in? OBVIOUSLY LAVOY ALLEN. :/ He's played less minutes than Bynum. The Pacers score 6 points in the next 4 minutes, which prorates to 82 points per game, and the Pacers play the Knicks to a draw in that span. Good luck with that.

Paul George gets his fourth foul in the third quarter. Evan Turner is still a butcher, Lance is already out there, so Vogel finally brings in Copeland. After playing 0 minutes in the first half he is obviously ice cold, but the Pacers are +4 in his 7 minutes on the court at 18-14. Giving up 96 points in a game isn't great, but scoring 126 points is. His box score is extremely unimpressive, but if you actually watch the game (not like those stupid stats nerds) you can see why his introduction is so crucial for this team: the Pacers have terrible spacing and terrible passing. Copeland went 0-2 from 3, but the threat of his shooting contributed spacing on all 13 possessions. Copeland is also one of two Pacers who can make a God damned post entry pass. Put these two together and it's no coincidence that Roy Hibbert scored 10 points in those 7 minutes. Basketball is really not that hard to figure out. Give Roy Hibbert a good pass and single defense and he's going to score a lot.

For the game, Copeland ends up +9. The next 3 highest Pacers combined (West, Hill, Lance) add up to +8. He's currently 12th on the Pacers in minutes played. Frank. You're driving me crazy.

.

Last night also gave us another illustration of how mythological/hagiographical the "Paul George guards the best player on the other team 48 minutes a game!!!" routine is. He spent the majority of the game guarding Carmelo, but once he got 4 fouls he obviously stopped... because he was on the bench. When he came back in he stuck with Shumpert, leaving Turner(!!!) and Lance(!!!) to guard 'Melo until very late in the fourth quarter. This is obviously the right move in all respects - Carmelo is a wing player, George is a wing player, George guard Carmelo until he can't, then guard someone else. It gives George less of an excuse for his continual offensive struggles, but that's how it goes.

.

Vogel sticks to his guns, and I can appreciate that, but I'm starting to wonder if he's just a slow thinker. This isn't to say he's not intelligent, just that he's methodical, and there's no shame in that at all. The Copeland debacle is the best illustration, but the close last night was another good example. 40 seconds left, Indiana is down 8. You've got two choices: recognize the game is over and let the clock run out, foul in a futile attempt to extend the game. George makes a couple halfhearted attempts at a steal and pokes it out of bounds with 25 seconds left, no big deal... then the Pacers foul with 23 seconds left? This makes no sense. If you're going to foul, you need to keep as much time on the clock as possible. 17 seconds is almost half the time you have left, how can you let that run off? ...unless you're thinking it over, thinking it over, weighing the options, still thinking, and it takes you that long to decide to start fouling. The Pacers continue fouling the rest of the game, which fine, whatever. I find it a travesty and my first act as commissioner would be letting a team in the bonus choose to take the ball out of bounds rather than take free throws on a non-shooting foul, but whatever. Why are you waiting 17 seconds to put this plan in gear, Vogel? It wasn't that the Pacers were chasing Knicks around in an attempt to foul, George was staring at a stationary Carmelo and intermittently poking at the ball. Weird stuff.

[Latrinsorm]

I was thinking today about how the 9th and 10th best teams in the West are better than a lot of Eastern teams, but specifically the 7th and 8th best that will get in the playoffs. I was also thinking: who cares? Do Phoenix or Minnesota really have any better chance at winning the title than Charlotte or Atlanta? Worrying about the bottom of the playoff bracket seems pointless in the grand scheme of basketball.

[Latrinsorm]

Pacers and Heat are struggling, but I'm not worried about either team. They were always going to be the 1 and 2 seed, there's no guarantee which of those seeds has to face the mean ol' Bulls, they were never quite at the level of the Spurs and Thunder, they were still equally contenders because they'd only have to go through one great team instead of two. One thing that stands out, though, is that since February 1st, 2014 AD:

LeBron - 27.9, 7.1, 6.6 to 3.3 per game; 55% from the field, 40% from 3; +11.57 per 100 MP on, -11.76 off.
Paul George - 19.7, 7.0, 3.7 to 2.9 per game; 39% from the field, 35% from 3; +6.36 per 100 MP on, +4.38 off.

LeBron is playing great, and history tells us the rest will fall into place when that's true. Paul George is barely moving the needle, his ascension to superstar status was supposed to be what put Indy over the top.

.

Another interesting LeBron factoid courtesy of Michael Wallace: only 5 players in NBA history have 22k points, 6k rebounds, 5.7k assists...



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Pts Reb Ast MP Name
26710 7804 9887 43886 Oscar Robertson*
26395 8007 6114 46471 John Havlicek*
22195 6677 6125 37537 Clyde Drexler*
31700 6601 5925 45567 Kobe Bryant
22820 6001 5722 32825 LeBron James


Another way of looking at it is to prorate LeBron out to each other player's MP total and see what the gap looks like in terms of LeBron - player, so a + means LeBron is on track to pass them and a - means he's not. LeBron is going to tail off (obviously) [probably] {possibly} but then again we haven't corrected for pace either.


Pts Reb Ast MP Name
3800 219 -2237 43886 LeBron James
5912 489 1987 46471 LeBron James
3901 185 418 37537 LeBron James
-22 1729 2018 45567 LeBron James

Pretty interesting that the only category he has no chance in at equal MP is Oscar's assists.

[Latrinsorm]

It looks like Chris Copeland is finally cracking the rotation in Indy, this marks the fourth straight game he's played non-garbage minutes. Critically, he's doing it as a wing player: Scola and Mahinmi have been playing their regular minutes. The minutes he's taking largely went to Rasual Butler or nobody, and he's better than both. Why was this driving me so crazy that he wasn't playing? Let's divide players into tiers the following way: tier 1 is >25 PER and >.25 WS/48, tier 2 is one or the other but both >20, and so on. Looking at the Indy and Miami rosters we get:

tier 1 - LeBron James
tier 2 - none
tier 3 - none
tier 4 - Dwyane Wade, Chris Andersen, Paul George
tier 5 - Chris Bosh, David West, Chris Copeland
tier 6 - George Hill, Lance Stephenson, Rasual Butler
tier 7 - Mario Chalmers, Greg Oden, Michael Beasley*, Roy Hibbert, C.J. Watson
tier 8 - Ray Allen, Ian Mahinmi, Evan Turner, Luis Scola
tier 9 - Shane Battier
tier 10 - Norris Cole
*Beasley is the only guy who is more than one step removed from one stat to another, so I split the difference and put him in tier 7.

The King stay the king. But the main takeaway is look at how crappy Indy's bench is!!! It is very crappy, and while the addition of Copeland is an improvement it is muted by replacing the previous best bench player, and even worse is that neither of them were getting serious minutes. Koremenos had an article on grantland today about how a bunch of NCAA upsets have been (in part) due to favored coach's obstinance, and boy would Vogel ever fit the bill on that if Indy maintains the #1 seed but loses to Miami.

You want to be big and strong, you want to play 4 traditional big men, great! Go out and pick up decent big men. Until then, play your best players. It's not like I'm talking about playing 5 point guards here, Copeland is 6'9" (same height as Scola) and Butler is 6'7" (same height as Turner). Obviously that doesn't make them like-for-like swaps, but that's the whole point! They're better! I just don't get it.

[Latrinsorm]

Postscript: thanks to LeBron's clutch time winning championship intangibles heart clutch heroics in crunch time and the Pacers shooting a brisk 36% from the field as a team, the Heat are once again 2 games back of Indiana with 2 head-to-head games left. It seems like they've been within 1 and 4 games back since January, odd how both teams have gone hot and cold in sync.

[RichardCranium]

What the hell is Tyreke Evans' deal this month? He's killing the Pelicans chances for a lottery pick, which means they lose their first rounder.

[Latrinsorm]

Here's a cool graph (http://statcenter.blogspot.com/2014/03/recent-scoring-margin-schedule-strength.html) detailing the last 18ish games of every NBA team in terms of margin and strength of schedule. A common narrative is that the Heat and Pacers are struggling recently, but it turns out that the Heat struggles are most like the Bulls and the Pacer struggles are most like the Knicks.

[Keller]

Thankfully the Heat have missed almost as many FTs as the refs have missed calls. Should be a 15+ pt blowout, but I'm just glad to be outplaying a top-4 seed in the east.

[Keller]

Good play by Spo at the end there. Just better defense by Roy.

I'm glad Spo, Lebron, or both, have realized Lebron's limitations and no longer give him the shot in game-determining situations.

[Latrinsorm]

Death, taxes, and Keller being a gracious winner.

Like always, a close game came down to luck. The blown call on Wade being out of bounds on a three would be lucky either way: bad luck for a missed call, good luck for Wade hitting a three. If Lance doesn't grab himself with both hands and throw himself out of the game, Miami probably doesn't close by 3 in the last 5 minutes to make it as close as it was.

The game's outcome makes the Pacers a prohibitive favorite for the #1 seed, but I would still feel better as a Miami fan afterwards. After not playing for what seemed like months, Rashard Lewis and Udonis Haslem both played very well. The Pacers meanwhile continue to have no depth at all: only 4 reserves deployed, only 1 for more than twenty minutes, and that was Evan Turner who continues to be awful. Battier and Beasley would each get minutes on this Pacer team, and they didn't play at all. The Eastern playoffs before the Conference Finals aren't going to be grueling, but they're not going to be easy either. If the Pacers continue to grind down Paul George, will he have enough left in the tank for LeBron? I think not.

[Atlanteax]

I like the NBA rule change of allowing defenders to jump up vertically.

Forces a lot more creative short-range shooting than simply charge in for lay-up attempt and collect free-throws.

[Latrinsorm]

I like verticality, but I think it could use some tidying up. There are a lot of cases where a defender will jump straight up but bring his arms down as much as 45º with no call.

There's been a lot of talk about the Heat-Indy results on their home courts, 6-1 for Indy and 5-1 for Miami. But we know that win-loss loses a lot of information, what are the average margins of victory for these subsets? As it turns out, Indy is +33/7 = +4.7 and Miami is +48/6 = +8.0. The Pacers can even this up if they win in Miami by 15 points, otherwise the "6-1 and 6-1, evenly matched!" will be a bit of a deception.

[RichardCranium]

Anthony Davis averaged 21.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.4 steals, and 2.9 blocks (!) per game. He shot 53 percent from the field and 79 percent from the line with a 27.2 PER. The Pelicans scored 120 points per 100 posessions with him on the floor, surrendering just 104, for a net rating of plus-16.


He turned 21 this month.

[Keller]

Let's rank the second through fifth best teams in the East.

The contenders: Miami, Chicago, Brooklyn, Toronto.

I think it's much closer than their records indicate, but I'd have to go with Toronto, Miami, Brooklyn, and Chicago, in that order.

I also bring you a letter from Dr. Dre to his lover, who was fucking Sedale Threatt.

http://i.imgur.com/IH1pE0y.jpg

[Latrinsorm]

Anthony Davis averaged 21.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.4 steals, and 2.9 blocks (!) per game. He shot 53 percent from the field and 79 percent from the line with a 27.2 PER. The Pelicans scored 120 points per 100 posessions with him on the floor, surrendering just 104, for a net rating of plus-16.


He turned 21 this month.He's a lock for MVP someday. If he ever figures out defense he'll even deserve it.

[Latrinsorm]

Incredible stat from Will Leitch c/o Zach Lowe: the 76ers have lost 26 straight, and they still don't have the worst record in the NBA. Currently 1 game ahead of the Bucks.

[RichardCranium]

He's a lock for MVP someday. If he ever figures out defense he'll even deserve it.

Well he's no Kobe but then, who is?

[Keller]

Let's rank the second through fifth best teams in the East.

The contenders: Miami, Chicago, Brooklyn, Toronto.

I think it's much closer than their records indicate, but I'd have to go with Toronto, Miami, Brooklyn, and Chicago, in that order.

I also bring you a letter from Dr. Dre to his lover, who was fucking Sedale Threatt.

http://i.imgur.com/IH1pE0y.jpg

I feel like people didn't read this carefully enough. Second to last sentence is one of the best sentences ever.

[Anebriated]

Incredible stat from Will Leitch c/o Zach Lowe: the 76ers have lost 26 straight, and they still don't have the worst record in the NBA. Currently 1 game ahead of the Bucks.

At this point Milwaukee has to be TRYING to lose the top pick in the lottery. Cant say I disagree as the #1 has lost its hold on the top pick in the majority of recent lotteries.

Also, Id really appreciate if the Pelicans would finish around the 7th-10th pick. thanks.

[Latrinsorm]

In my analysis of the Miami-GS-Boston trade a couple months back (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?86467-NBA-2013-2014-Season!!!!!&p=1625226#post1625226), I declared it a win for Miami and pointless for GS and Boston. I bring it up because I noticed Douglas starting tonight due to a Chalmers injury(?), and Spoelstra prefers to put the third string on the starting line in those cases to maintain continuity(?) in the rotation. Since the trade, here are the numbers:

Douglas: 117 minutes of +4.0 on/off, 7.9 PER, +.044 WS/48. The composite stats are poor, the ± is quite good. The continued resting of Wade + the unforeseen simultaneous loss of Allen to the flu and Chalmers to maybe a knee = significant use for a third point guard / emergency shooting guard. Meanwhile as I declared at the time Haslem has played a little as a fourth big and Miami has sought no other player in that role, meaning Joel Anthony wouldn't have played anyway. Plus the Heat saved money with the trade.

Brooks played 15 minutes before being traded with Kent Bazemore for Steve Blake. I'd rather have Douglas than Brooks, but Bazemore probably would have been needed to make the trade work anyway.

Crawford has played 473 minutes and been just brutal: -11.8(!!!!!) on/off, 10.3 PER, +.011(!!!) WS/48. To be fair, Toney Douglas on the Warriors was just as bad, but still, they've each regressed to their mean since then. Or maybe the Warriors are a dysfunctional mess and anyone who plays there produces less. Either way, they turned Douglas and Bazemore into Blake and Crawford, so with that in mind I will give them a slight win.

Anthony has played 65 not entirely garbage time minutes for the Cs as a fifth big and has been middling as advertised. The on-court result was never important for the Celtics in a rebuilding year, the problem with the trade was off-court in taking on salary next year for no apparent reason. The only sweetener in the deal was Miami's unprotected 2nd round draft pick in 2016. A lot can happen between now and then, but the cap room was a bird in the hand.

[Latrinsorm]

Just read the recap from yesterday's Indy-DC tilt, and this struck my eye:

"George was 6-for-22 and was unhappy he didn't get more calls. "It's just crazy," George said. "We played against a team the other night where if you breathe on the guy (LeBron James) you know he went to the line. I'm not saying I'm that caliber player, but it's just frustrating.""

His argument is slightly undermined by the fact that Indy actually had more FTAs (25 to 17) and less PFs (19 to 21), but I guess you shouldn't let the facts get in the way of a good story.

[Keller]

I'm not sure your logic is solid there, Latrin.

Your statistics show that the Pacers are generally a very efficient defense that is able to guard players without fouling them. Thank you for proving that.

Now we have to ask why Lebron shot 15 FTs by himself, while the Wizards shot only 17 as a team. Seems you've proved Paul George's point, which, it so happens, is a point every non-Heat NBA fan has been making for years now.

Thanks, Latrin. Glad we agree that Lebron gets way too many calls because of his superstar status.

[Latrinsorm]

Interesting times still afoot in the Eastern Conference standings.

-Miami back to 1.5 games back of Indiana with one head-to-head left. Miami has been dramatically (though not significantly) better against the Western Conference than Indiana, which ironically gives Indiana the leg up in tiebreakers so Miami still needs help to get the 1 seed. Hollinger odds: 60% Indy.

-As I nasally declared earlier, it's no gimme that Chicago finishes in the 3 seed. They remain 1 game behind Toronto, and Hollinger odds predict they will finish 2 games ahead. It's no gimme that they even finish with home court in the first round, as the hard charging Nets are only 1.5 games behind them, though Hollinger odds put them at 1 game ahead to end the season. Interesting quirk: the odds he gives for Toronto winning the championship are the same as for Portland: 3%.

-And in the totally pathetic department, the Hawks have gone on a 6 game losing streak to keep Knick playoff hopes alive, currently 1.5 games back. Hollinger odds somehow project the Hawks 3 games ahead and gives the Knicks a 7% chance of making the playoffs, although he's a nerd who doesn't take into account the winning intangibles of having the Zen Master watch your games sometimes if he feels like it. No head-to-head matchups remain in any of the three battles listed above.

Overall odds for ringzzz, top 10:
Spurs 31%
Clippers 21%
Heat 12%
Rockets 9% (!)
Thunder 7%
Pacers 5%
Warriors 3.4%
Raptors 3%
Blazers 3%
Bulls 1.9%

No respect for the Thunder! No respect at all! Another interesting way to look at it is %champ / %finals, or the chance a team wins it all if they get to the Finals:

Spurs .832
Clippers .787
Warriors .708 (!!!!!)
Rockets .704
Thunder .677
Blazers .612
Heat .307
Pacers .235
Raptors .201
Bulls .190

Some of that might be rounding error, but wow, Hollinger odds are not impressed with the Eastern Conference.

[Latrinsorm]

I'm not sure your logic is solid there, Latrin.

Your statistics show that the Pacers are generally a very efficient defense that is able to guard players without fouling them. Thank you for proving that.

Now we have to ask why Lebron shot 15 FTs by himself, while the Wizards shot only 17 as a team. Seems you've proved Paul George's point, which, it so happens, is a point every non-Heat NBA fan has been making for years now.

Thanks, Latrin. Glad we agree that Lebron gets way too many calls because of his superstar status.All I know is that a referee literally kicked his foot out and tripped LeBron during the Pacers game, something Jeff Van Gundy has never seen. If that's superstar treatment, I'll pass.

[Latrinsorm]

That escalated quickly: the Heat are in 1st. 7 left for Indy and 9 for Miami, the biggest one of course is the remaining head-to-head but if Indy goes 1-5 getting the 1 against Miami won't save them. To me it's still a toss-up going down the stretch, but the remarkable thing has been the depth factor:

Miami is doing whatever. Last night they were missing Wade and Allen and Oden, Battier is apparently done, so they had five usual suspects from the rotation: LeBron, Bosh, Chalmers, Cole, Andersen. To that they added Toney Douglas (I told you guys), and in escalating levels of what-ness Rashard Lewis, Udonis Haslem, James Jones!!!!!. Greg Oden has played more minutes than James Jones this year, okay? And it wasn't just last night, Jones has played 79 minutes over the last 3 games after playing 71 the rest of the season... and played really friggin' well! There was a lot of worry (myself included) that the Miller loss would be a problem, but apparently James Jones can pull off the "not play for months then drain 3s all night" routine too.

Bottom line, the Heat go 14 deep, and are deep at every position: 3 points, 6 wings, 4 bigs, 1 LeBron.

Indy doesn't have any bullets left in the gun, and it's been hard to watch. Their starting 5 is locked in, they're bringing Scola, Mahinmi, Watson, and Turner off the bench, the 10th spot is the only experimentation being done. They tried Orlando Johnson, Rasual Butler, Chris Copeland, Rasual Butler again, with helpings of "nobody" sprinkled in. I've said this before, there's a line between sticking to your guns and being a jackass, and Vogel looks to be on the wrong side of it. The Spurs play 3 bigs (Duncan, Splitter, Diaw) and then a million wings. You can't say "well we'll go big and beat them up on the boards, that'll show 'em!!!" because Kawhi Leonard will drink up your milkshake on the boards and Boris Diaw will rain 3s on you - you lose on both sides of the ball. You HAVE to go small, play Copeland at the 4 because he can make 3s and he's quick enough to guard 3s. What you absolutely cannot do is put the ball in Paul George's hands with no spacing on the floor and have him isolate against possibly the best defense in the league. While the Spurs are 3rd in DRtg, they obviously go up against tougher offenses than Indy or Chicago: of the top 9 ORtgs only 1 is in the East (Miami).

Bottom line, the Pacers go 7 deep (being generous) and are perilously thin at the point. Same story, different year.

.

It is absolutely worth pointing out that rotations shrink in the playoffs anyway, and Miami being +7 players in the regular season will only amount to maybe +1 in the playoffs. It is also worth pointing out that regular season games still count both for seeding and on the odometers of the players.

Bottom bottom line, we should all take this as a lesson not to overestimate a fresh young team or a team going for 4 straight Finals appearances. I thought they would both get 60+ wins this year, the Pacers definitely can't and the Heat almost certainly won't.

[Latrinsorm]

I also wanted to say: let's not get carried away about the Spurs. They won 20 straight games stretching from the regular season into the playoffs before losing 4 straight to the Thunder in the WCF. Obviously the Thunder neutered their team by trading away James Harden for no reason, but still. Peaking at the right time only works if you keep peaking.

[DoctorUnne]

I think Vogel's a better coach than Spo. Spo has LeBron. Vogel doesn't. You repeatedly claim LeBron is a god (agree), Miami has much better players than Indy outside their top player (disagree), and that they have a much better coach. Then why have they been in two pretty competitive playoff series and why are they both neck and neck for the #1 seed? Can't have it both ways. It weakens your argument on any one topic when the sum of the parts is less, and I'm trying to adjust for homerism and take you seriously for the most part.

[Latrinsorm]

I think Vogel's a better coach than Spo. Spo has LeBron. Vogel doesn't. You repeatedly claim LeBron is a god (agree), Miami has much better players than Indy outside their top player (disagree), and that they have a much better coach. Then why have they been in two pretty competitive playoff series and why are they both neck and neck for the #1 seed? Can't have it both ways. It weakens your argument on any one topic when the sum of the parts is less, and I'm trying to adjust for homerism and take you seriously for the most part.They were in competitive series because Indy got lucky: 2012 Bosh missed 5 of the 6 games and the Heat still had >5 MOV, 2013 they had a hot series (shooting, rebounds, and fouls) and the Heat had 4 MOV anyway. If they played each series 5 times the Heat would win all 10.

They're neck and neck because Indy's had an easier schedule, Wade has missed 22 games while Indy's starting five combined has missed 7, and the Heat are coming off 3 straight Finals trips with an Olympics for good measure. Spo is a great coach and they have a great roster because they've been able to do just as well with the deck stacked against them.

Pretty good, right? :)

[Warriorbird]

Do basketball coaches matter as little as baseball managers do statistically, Latrin?

[Latrinsorm]

Do basketball coaches matter as little as baseball managers do statistically, Latrin?I've got Valthissa's book that definitely says something about coaches, possibly managers too. I'll dig it out tomorrow.

[Valthissa]

I've got Valthissa's book that definitely says something about coaches, possibly managers too. I'll dig it out tomorrow.

Did you buy the book?

I'll tell Martin he owes me a nickel.

[Latrinsorm]

Did you buy the book?

I'll tell Martin he owes me a nickel.I sure did! And here is what it has to say: There have been about ten NBA head coaches who add 10 wins a year (#1 and #2 are Phil and Pop, so that looks good). This is pretty valuable, but there are about ten NBA players who add 10 wins every year. This doesn't mean there have been 630 such players, obviously there's a lot of overlap, but throw in that you have 5 players on the court to only 1 coach and generally speaking you get a lot more out of players than the coach.

The book doesn't have a lot to say about MLB, WB. If the data you've seen puts the best baseball managers at less than the equivalent of 20 wins, which I would guess it does, then they are much less important than basketball coaches.

It's always tricky comparing the best to the best, but we obviously can't compare averages because on average everyone adds 0 wins. It could just be that the greatest baseball managers happened to never actually manage a baseball team, that the capitalization rate for basketball head coaches is higher for whatever reason.

[DoctorUnne]

I think Spo is a good coach. I think Vogel is a very good coach.

[Keller]

It's baseball season. Who cares about basketball?





FUCKTHISFUCKINGTEAMFUCKTHEMRIGHTINTHEFUCKINGASSHOL E!!!

[Atlanteax]

It's baseball season. Who cares about basketball?

FUCKTHISFUCKINGTEAMFUCKTHEMRIGHTINTHEFUCKINGASSHOL E!!!

You were fine until losing to Washington and Cleveland ... *lolz*

[Warriorbird]

I sure did! And here is what it has to say: There have been about ten NBA head coaches who add 10 wins a year (#1 and #2 are Phil and Pop, so that looks good). This is pretty valuable, but there are about ten NBA players who add 10 wins every year. This doesn't mean there have been 630 such players, obviously there's a lot of overlap, but throw in that you have 5 players on the court to only 1 coach and generally speaking you get a lot more out of players than the coach.

The book doesn't have a lot to say about MLB, WB. If the data you've seen puts the best baseball managers at less than the equivalent of 20 wins, which I would guess it does, then they are much less important than basketball coaches.

It's always tricky comparing the best to the best, but we obviously can't compare averages because on average everyone adds 0 wins. It could just be that the greatest baseball managers happened to never actually manage a baseball team, that the capitalization rate for basketball head coaches is higher for whatever reason.

That definitely seems more significant. Thanks. Some 538 stuff put baseball managers at lower than the best pitchers.

[AnticorRifling]

Why do baseball coaches think it is ok to wear the team uniform?

[Warriorbird]

Why do baseball coaches think it is ok to wear the team uniform?

The implication was people want somebody to blame even if it isn't their fault.

[Keller]

Why do baseball coaches think it is ok to wear the team uniform?

I have no idea, but I think this is a terrific topic for this thread.

I will postulate it is because at one point, managers played for the team.

[Latrinsorm]

I have no idea, but I think this is a terrific topic for this thread.

I will postulate it is because at one point, managers played for the team.Very correct. This was briefly sometimes the case for basketball (most famous is justifiably Russell, most prolific is Wilkens), but never to the extent or duration it was for baseball. Because of various salary caps and luxury taxes, it is no longer possible for anyone in any sport to be on both sides without committing shenanigans.

I think though that tradition is an excuse for MLB to make its managers look ridiculous, as the NFL does with their ridiculous dress anti-code.
You were fine until losing to Washington and Cleveland ... *lolz*Cleveland is a catastrophe, but Washington is a legitimate team, losing in DC is no big shame. Ironically they are currently matched up with another ignored scrapper in the East: they're 6, Toronto is 3. I would absolutely rate Washington as more of a threat than Brooklyn or Chicago, and Toronto even more. The Wizards have slightly undershot their Pythagorean record, the Nets have dramatically overshot theirs, and the Wizards have the only player in the East that as a Heat fan I am legitimately worried can go supernova for 7 games against the Heat. (Roy Hibbert could do that, but I know the Pacers won't give him the ball enough while the Wizards can't help giving Wall the ball.)

[Latrinsorm]

Indiana... jeez. Down 55-23 at halftime at home!!?? Their slump has been so significant that Hollinger's playoff odds had Toronto as the second favorite to both reach the Finals and win the championship before whatever the heck is going on tonight. It looks like Hibbert is being benched in the second half which... I don't even know what to say. And of course even in this debacle Chris Copeland isn't getting minutes. VOGEL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Latrinsorm]

You're down 25 with 8 minutes to play. Why is Paul George out there? Anyone? The game is lost, you can save him minutes and avoid injury risk. Your next game's not 'til Wednesday, but still. Why is he out there?

[Atlanteax]

Perhaps the fix is in for the #1 seed.

[Keller]

Strasburg's first two outings were less than impressive. Feels like we're watching Kerry Woods v2.0.

BTW, can we get a thread title change to reflect the new topic. Perhaps MLB 2014 Season!!!!

[Kembal]

So the Finals are essentially going to be a rested-up Miami taking on whoever of the top 4 seeds survives the West?

[Latrinsorm]

I wouldn't be surprised if one of the top 4 guys in the West gets hot and blows everyone else away. Bearded Houston, Slim Servant, the greatest guard since MJ, a top 10 all time player's last hurrah (although last year was that if we have a Divine Storyteller).

While I expect Miami to drop no more than 2 games in the first two series, then no more than 2 in the third, there's just no way to be well-rested in a fourth straight Finals. If the Clippers are the Western representative, they'll be the fourth different challenger Miami hypothetically faces in four years, an incredible gauntlet to run. (The Rockets pretty much would be too, but Harden was in the 2012 Finals.)

.

Another thing that struck me looking at the standings just now is we could very easily have only one 60+ win team this year in the Spurs, and that's with multiple teams openly tanking. (I am sure the people who complain about a lack of parity in today's NBA are equally as struck by this.) The only other team with a shot are the Thunder who'd have to finish 5-1, but they might not have any incentive to do so if they beat the Clippers on Wednesday. In the 17 non-shortened seasons since the NBA went to 29 teams in 1996 it's actually the most common outcome at 7 of 17. Two teams happened 5 times, three teams 4 times, and four teams in 1998, three of which were in the Western Conference which is why everyone dismisses Jordan's 1998 championship as the product of being in a weak conference.

There was also one year where no team won 60 games: in 2001 the Spurs led the league with 58 wins as the Lakers openly yawned their way through the regular season to the tune of 56 wins before facerolling the playoffs to the tune of 15-1.

The longest such stretch since the original expansion in 1962 was from 1976-1979, four straight years with no team hitting 60 wins and a new champion every year.

[Atlanteax]

http://media.cagle.com/178/2014/04/07/146803_600.jpg

[Latrinsorm]

Sure, blame it on the black guy. Big surprise. Anyway, here's the real problem for Indiana:


Usage bigs wings
2013 46.9 38.7
ECSF 39.4 43.9
ECF 49.5 41.1
2014 41.3 47.6
They didn't play so much better against Miami because it's a bad match-up, they played so much better because they exploited that bad match-up. They failed to do so against the Knicks and barely beat them, they're failing to do so this year and it's keeping them from reaching their ceiling. I said before the season that the Pacers wouldn't catch the Heat because I expected the Heat to win 60 games and put the Pacer ceiling at 62. It remains to be seen how the Heat finish, but Hollinger puts them at 57 wins - they failed (however slightly) to meet expectations, the door was open for the Pacers, and the Pacers didn't capitalize.

If I'm right, the games where Roy and West have a higher usage percentage will be correlated with the Pacers having a higher Rtg margin:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v456/johnnyoldschool/NBAPacerBigs_zps178f1291.png

Nope. Just Roy?

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v456/johnnyoldschool/NBAPacerBigs2_zps0cfad1c5.png

Nope. Is Paul George a bum?

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v456/johnnyoldschool/NBAPacerBigs3_zps1a180c7e.png

Nope. Okay, I give up.

[Atlanteax]

James get stuffed at the end of game vs Brooklyn Nets

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2022399-brooklyns-mason-plumlee-blocks-lebron-james-dunk-to-prevent-game-winner?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial&hpt=hp_t2

In the meantime, *seriously* ?!?!? The back of James' jersey says "King James" and Chris Bosh is just "CB"

I thought it was strictly last name & # on the back of jerseys?

[Latrinsorm]

They've been doing nickname jerseys in a bunch of games this season. Unfortunately most players don't really have nicknames, so we're stuck with the CBs and Tee-Dubs of the world along with King James, Truth, and Shuttlesworth.

LeBron was fouled three times on that play:
1. Joe Johnson's left hand hits him on the left arm.
2. Plumlee's left arm hits him in the ribs.
3. Plumlee's right hand hits him on the right hand. (Plumlee's right arm is close enough to vertical, but his body is not, so verticality does not apply.)

Put it on the pile with Ibaka breaking his nose with no call.

.

The wacky starting lineup Miami used yesterday reminded me to look this up: Miami has had 19 starting lineups. Indiana has had 3. (If Vogel follows up on his obvious lie that he wants to start resting his starters, the latter number obviously will go up.) The 5-man lineups with the most minutes played for each team look like this:


1432 IND
1306 POR
1052 MIN
809 DAL
795 GSW
682 TOR
611 PHI
602 UTA
598 WAS
593 CHI
591 HOU
546 MEM
539 OKC
525 PHX
496 DET
490 DEN
488 CHA
429 MIA
391 ATL
372 BOS
316 SAC
309 LAC
284 BKN
262 SAS
251 NYK
240 CLE
205 MIL
200 ORL
200 NOP
193 LAL

391 ATL
284 BKN
372 BOS
488 CHA
593 CHI
240 CLE
809 DAL
490 DEN
496 DET
795 GSW
591 HOU
1432 IND
309 LAC
193 LAL
546 MEM
429 MIA
205 MIL
1052 MIN
200 NOP
251 NYK
539 OKC
200 ORL
611 PHI
525 PHX
1306 POR
316 SAC
262 SAS
682 TOR
602 UTA
598 WAS
The data goes back to 2008, so I'll look through and see if there's any link between biggest lineup duration and playoff over- or under-performance. I could see it both ways: consistency breeds success, or the best teams pace themselves in the regular season.

[Keller]

I don't want to post off-topic in the MLB thread, but since you guys insist on talking about the NBA in the MLB thread, I'll post this here.

Vogel starting Sloan, Turner, Butler, Scola, and Mahimi.

I imagine Copeland will get a DNP and Latrin will have a conniption.

[Latrinsorm]

I'm honestly worried about Vogel. He is a stick to his guns, stuck in his ways kind of guy. This move is incredibly erratic for him. Best case scenario: he's floundering under the weight of expectations, and like Tiberius is ineptly imitating the superior model of Popovich.

Speaking of, what does Pop do to top this? Only bring 4 players? Forfeit outright? Suit up himself?

[Latrinsorm]

Does anyone want the East #1 seed? No I'm kidding, losing in Memphis by 5 on a back-to-back with so many players missing isn't a major failure. All Miami really has to do is beat Indy to (finally) sew it up. I also want to say how much I enjoy the Memphis crowd. They're active and engaged without becoming overzealous like Indy's crowd. You can't go to 11 on every bad call, that's childish.

Chris Copeland with 18 points in 17 minutes. VOGEL!!!!!

In 2012, the Lakers traded Derek Fisher and Dallas' 2014 1st rounder for Jordan Hill. (That draft pick has since made its way to OKC in the Harden trade, and has somewhat unusual protections: top 20 picks stay with Dallas until 2018, when the pick is completely unprotected.) Over their next 21 games they played him a total of 17 minutes behind the third and fourth bigs of Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy. In their second to last game of the season he exploded against the Thunder, then went on to play enormously valuable minutes for them throughout the postseason. It's probable that the Lakers lose their first round matchup with Denver if they don't play Hill, not because he was spectacular but because the other two were so bad.

Side note: this was the same game as MWP's elbow of Harden, and recaps of the Laker win hilariously claim that it "set the tone" for their possible second round matchup. Ramona Shelbourne went so far as to say that Kobe "put the Lakers on his back and willed them to a comeback victory", that the Lakers were "a team to be reckoned with" and "a serious contender". The Thunder obliterated the Lakers in their second round series. Oops!

So what do you do as a coach? You can't lose your mind every time a guy plays one good game... but like Mike Brown before him, Vogel's choices for this particular roster spot have under-performed brutally, and only magnify the fundamental weaknesses of the team. The Lakers were old and plodding, Jordan Hill was always the energy guy they needed. The Pacers can't shoot, Copeland has always provided the floor spacing they needed. I don't understand what's so hard about this.

[Latrinsorm]

The Pacers really turned a corner in Milwaukee, with all that momentum they're going to go into Miami and... not give Hibbert any touches, not give Copeland and PT, over-extend Paul George, and lose.

/inhale

VOGEL!!!!!!!

.

Seriously, I still expect the Pacers to make the ECF, but I cannot get over how hard they're making it on themselves for no reason. Wade missing 9 straight games to injury is a real concern, but not a self-inflicted one. (As far as I know.) Basketball is just not this complicated a game.

[Latrinsorm]

One thing that I think has been lost in the shuffle: Miami and Indiana's combined struggles almost ensure that the East will not have homecourt advantage in the Finals. The Spurs, Thunder, and Clippers currently have a combined 83% chance of making the Finals, and each of them are going to have a better record than the Heat and Pacers. This is also the first time in 30 years the Finals are going to be 2-2-1-1-1 instead of 2-3-2, so it'll be interesting to see what happens.

[RichardCranium]

Why are the Pelicans beating the Rockets in Houston without any of New Orleans top seven (7!) season scorers having played a single minute with under two minutes left?

[DoctorUnne]

Miami really playing like they want the 1 seed tonight against Washington. I don't get it. Does Miami not have the tiebreaker? Why would they not be trying tonight? Last game is against Philly!

[Latrinsorm]

Miami doesn't have the tiebreaker. They need to win both games and have Indy lose to Orlando to get the 1 seed.

eta: and Miami doesn't have the tiebreaker because they have a worse record against the East, which is part of why Hollinger gives the Pacers the same championship odds as friggin' Chicago.

[Latrinsorm]

25 points and 52+ eFG% on a Finals team since 1984:

Shaquille O'Neal (4)
Hakeem Olajuwon (3)
Larry Bird (2)
LeBron James (2)
Michael Jordan
Kevin Durant