Favorable/Unfavorable Numbers

[ClydeR]

Echoing my contention that Romney would be the weakest of the Republican nominees in a general election..


So to get a better sense of how strong (or weak) Romney will be, forget about the head-to-head numbers for a few months; right now, they say more about Obama’s vulnerability than Mitt’s might. The more suggestive metric—the one that actually has some history of predicting a challenger’s general-election prowess—is his favorable rating.

Unfortunately, this is terrible news for Mitt, because he currently boasts the worst primary-season favorable-unfavorable split of any major-party nominee of the last 36 years (at least). There have been roughly 20 polls released in the last two months; only one gives him a positive favorable rating. The rest of the surveys show Romney’s unfavorables outstripping his favorables, often by as many as 20 percentage points. On five occasions, his unfavorable rating has topped 50 percent; his favorable rating has fallen into the 20s five times as well. As of March 12, when the last of these polls was released, Romney was averaging 49.6 percent unfavorable to 37.6 percent favorable—a gap of 11.7 points.

The depth and duration of Romney’s favorability dip is unprecedented, even during a heated primary battle. More often than not, the eventual winner enjoys positive favorable ratings the March-April before the election. Carter was at 74 percent favorable on March 27, 1976; Reagan was at 41 percent favorable to 34 percent unfavorable on April 18, 1980; George W. Bush was at 63 percent favorable to 32 percent unfavorable on March 10, 2000 (a split that was unchanged a month-and-a-half later); and over the month of March 2008, Obama’s favorable rating outstripped his unfavorable rating by an average of 19 percentage points.

More... (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/03/19/is-mitt-romney-the-most-unpopular-presidential-nominee-ever.html)


To win in November, Romney will have to make history. Not by being one of the wealthiest men elected president, or even the first Mormon, but by changing more minds that are more deeply set against him than any other nominee in recent memory. If he can’t convince the unprecedented number of voters who have already decided they don’t like him that, actually, they do, he will be heading back to Massachusetts—or New Hampshire, or California, or Utah—come November 6.

[Wrathbringer]

I think the main reason that the Republicans couldn't get strong candidate this time around is that nobody wants the job. After all, who wants to become captain of a sinking ship? The more I learn, the more I'm forced to entertain the idea that we're already past the tipping point as a nation and that it's only going to get worse from here. Obviously I hope that's not the case, but the radical recourse that would be required to change course at this late hour just doesn't appear to be in the cards within the foreseeable future.

[Wrathbringer]

Dear Anonymous Obviously Liberal Neg Repper,

Disagree with me to your heart's content, but at least have the guts to reply and tell everyone why you believe becoming a bankrupt socialist republic is the best course.

All my love,

Wrathbringer

[Androidpk]

I think the main reason that the Republicans couldn't get strong candidate this time around is that nobody wants the job. After all, who wants to become captain of a sinking ship? The more I learn, the more I'm forced to entertain the idea that we're already past the tipping point as a nation and that it's only going to get worse from here. Obviously I hope that's not the case, but the radical recourse that would be required to change course at this late hour just doesn't appear to be in the cards within the foreseeable future.

I don't like being a pessimist but i fully agree with you.

[Kembal]

Or you know, we're just going from a unipolar world to a multipolar one, and we as a populace are having trouble making that transition psychologically. Combine that with the recession and financial crisis, and we see a very pessimistic view of the world as opposed to reality.

The Republicans couldn't field a strong candidate because everyone that fits the bill decided to wait til 2016. Their reasons might vary from needing to gain experience to personal reasons to not willing to accommodate the Tea Party to a preference of running for an open seat instead of against an incumbent. Throw in the initial view of the Romney campaign as a steamroller and the experience of Rick Perry in terms of jumping in late once everyone realized Romney's campaign wasn't so much of a steamroller, and you can account for a lot of candidates staying out.

Bottom line: The Republican bench is very strong, compared to the Dem bench. (seriously, right now, the Dems have to hope Hillary Clinton runs in 2016. I don't think they really have anyone else, though things could change.) POTUS is still the most powerful position in the world, and all these politicians are still attracted to it like moths to a flame. You'll see a pretty good Republican field in 2016.

[Parkbandit]

Or you know, we're just going from a unipolar world to a multipolar one, and we as a populace are having trouble making that transition psychologically. Combine that with the recession and financial crisis, and we see a very pessimistic view of the world as opposed to reality.

The Republicans couldn't field a strong candidate because everyone that fits the bill decided to wait til 2016. Their reasons might vary from needing to gain experience to personal reasons to not willing to accommodate the Tea Party to a preference of running for an open seat instead of against an incumbent. Throw in the initial view of the Romney campaign as a steamroller and the experience of Rick Perry in terms of jumping in late once everyone realized Romney's campaign wasn't so much of a steamroller, and you can account for a lot of candidates staying out.

Bottom line: The Republican bench is very strong, compared to the Dem bench. (seriously, right now, the Dems have to hope Hillary Clinton runs in 2016. I don't think they really have anyone else, though things could change.) POTUS is still the most powerful position in the world, and all these politicians are still attracted to it like moths to a flame. You'll see a pretty good Republican field in 2016.

Meh.. I don't think the GOP bench is all that strong.. but I do agree that it's in better shape than the Dems.

Chris Christie - needs to lose some substantial weight between now and then.. he looks grossly overweight and unhealthy.

Jeb Bush - We're done with the Bushs(Bushes?).. like we're done with the Clintons. I don't see it.

Boehner / McConnell - Hell no.

Palin - Hell fucking no.

Marco Rubio - Probably one of the best out there currently.

Rand Paul - I actually like this guy.

Allen West - Not sure if he's recognized nationally, but he's one of my favorite politicians currently. He's a Congressman from Florida. Here's his reaction to the Trayvon Martin shooting:

MIAMI (CBSMiami) – Florida Congressman Allen West weighed in on the shooting death of Trayvon Martin Thursday and said the shooting and the investigation were quite simply, “an outrage.”

“First of all, if all that has been reported is accurate, the Sanford Police Chief should be relieved of his duties due to what appears to be a mishandling of this shooting in its early stages,” West wrote in a statement on Facebook.

“The U.S. Navy SEALS identified Osama Bin Laden within hours, while this young man laid on a morgue slab for three days,” West continued. “The shooter, Mr. Zimmerman, should have been held in custody and certainly should not be walking free, still having a concealed weapons carry permit.”


West also took issue with George Zimmerman’s, the shooter of Trayvon Martin, claim of self-defense under the state’s “Stand Your Ground” law.

“From my reading, it seems this young man was pursued and there was no probable cause to engage him, certainly not pursue and shoot him…against the direction of the 911 responder,” West wrote.

“Let’s all be appalled at this instance not because of race, but becaue a young American man has lost his life, seemingly, for no reason,” West continued.

West said he has signed onto a letter supporting a DOJ investigation. But, West took issue with the marches and protests that have been ongoing in Sanford and in Miami.

“I am not heading to Sanford to shout and scream, because we need the responsible entities and agencies to handle this situation from this point without media bias or undue political influences,” West said.

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2012/03/22/cong-west-condemns-martin-shooting-investigation/

[4a6c1]

Okay so not so off topic but that fucker pisses me off so bad. Zimmerman is ruining stand your ground laws and making concealed carry people look so bad right now. He pursued and murdered a black kid as the self-appointed, "solo neighborhood watch". He does not represent the majority of responsible gun owners, he's trigger happy and Florida police should arrest him as soon as possible. The 911 tapes are horrific. Take his conceal carry away asap or just put him in jail already!

[ClydeR]

Jeb Bush - We're done with the Bushs(Bushes?).. like we're done with the Clintons. I don't see it.

That's a common impression that people have, but it's just not true. George W. Bush is viewed much more favorably than Romney.


Reversing a trend of falling favorability numbers Romney's net favorability is -25 this month at 33/58. That's actually a slight improvement from -28 a month ago at 29/57. To put those numbers into some perspective though, we were asked on Twitter this morning whether Romney or George W. Bush is more popular. The answer is Bush by a wide margin. Last month we found 45% of voters rating him favorably to 46% with a negative opinion.

More... (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/obama-leads-gop-field-by-small-margins.html)




“The U.S. Navy SEALS identified Osama Bin Laden within hours, while this young man laid on a morgue slab for three days,” West continued.

Is it just me, or is that a really dumb comparison? The SEALS were the ones who shot Osama and they knew who they were looking for.

[Parkbandit]

Okay so not so off topic but that fucker pisses me off so bad. Zimmerman is ruining stand your ground laws and making concealed carry people look so bad right now. He pursued and murdered a black kid as the self-appointed, "solo neighborhood watch". He does not represent the majority of responsible gun owners, he's trigger happy and Florida police should arrest him as soon as possible. The 911 tapes are horrific. Take his conceal carry away asap or just put him in jail already!

"Never let a crisis go to waste"... This has nothing to do with the Stand Your Ground law and everything to do with the Progressives trying to tie the incident to the law in order to garner public support to repeal it. Zimmerman wasn't standing any ground.. he was the the aggressor in this case.

[Parkbandit]

Is it just me, or is that a really dumb comparison?

It's you.

[ClydeR]

"Never let a crisis go to waste"... This has nothing to do with the Stand Your Ground law and everything to do with the Progressives trying to tie the incident to the law in order to garner public support to repeal it. Zimmerman wasn't standing any ground.. he was the the aggressor in this case.


You are assuming that Zimmerman is lying. How do you know he's not telling the truth? If he's telling the truth, then the Stand Your Ground law clearly applies and gives him a legal defense. The police believed him and the police believed that his statement was corroborated by witnesses. How in the world did you conclude that the Stand Your Ground law is not applicable?


When the police arrived, they reported finding Martin face-down and unresponsive, with a gunshot wound in the chest. Statements by the police say Zimmerman was covered in grass and blood as if he'd been on his back on the ground.[23] He claimed self-defense, telling police he had stepped out of his truck to check the name of the street he was on, when Martin attacked him from behind as he walked back to his truck. He said he fired the semiautomatic handgun because he feared for his life.[24] Martin was unarmed, and was carrying a bag of Skittles candy and a can of Arizona brand iced tea.[24][25]

More... (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_of_Trayvon_Martin#Police_arrival)


This is the Stand Your Ground law..


(3) A person who is not engaged in an unlawful activity and who is attacked in any other place where he or she has a right to be has no duty to retreat and has the right to stand his or her ground and meet force with force, including deadly force if he or she reasonably believes it is necessary to do so to prevent death or great bodily harm to himself or herself or another or to prevent the commission of a forcible felony.

More... (http://www.leg.state.fl.us/Statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&Search_String=&URL=0700-0799/0776/Sections/0776.013.html)

[Parkbandit]

I realize it's futile to respond to an idiot troll, but:

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush said Friday that the “stand your ground” self-defense law he signed while in office should not apply to the case of a teenager who was shot by a neighborhood watch volunteer in his home state.
“This law does not apply to this particular circumstance,” Bush said after an education panel discussion at the University of Texas at Arlington. “Stand your ground means stand your ground means stand your ground. It doesn’t mean chase after somebody who’s turned their back.”

He was referring to reports that the 17-year-old, Trayvon Martin, was pursued by the volunteer and fatally shot in a scuffle.

“Anytime an innocent life is taken it's a tragedy,” Bush said. “You've got to let the process work.”

Bush signed the law, pushed for by gun-rights advocates, in 2005. It allows people to use deadly force rather than retreat if they feel threatened, even if they are not at home. Police and prosecutors cited the law in deciding not to charge Martin’s killer.

The Martin case has opened up questions about race and justice. The teenager was walking home from a convenience story Feb. 26, in Sanford, Fla., an Orlando suburb, when a neighborhood watch volunteer followed Martin, after calling police to say he looked suspicious. The man, George Zimmerman, pulled his gun when the two got into a fight, and Martin was fatally shot.

Martin had no weapon, carrying only a drink and a bag of candy.

Zimmerman claimed that Martin attacked him as he tried to return to his truck. But supporters of the teen’s family say that would have been wildly out of character and that the case is typical of black youths being harassed and endangered for simply being in an area.

The case has sparked protests and demands for a fresh investigation. The town’s police chief and a local prosecutor have stepped aside in hopes of defusing tension.

Bush said Friday that he wondered why the investigation has taken so long to reach a conclusion. He said it took several weeks of public outrage and media attention for local officials step up their efforts.

“It doesn’t make sense to me,” he said. Bush added that he didn’t want a rush to judgment, but that public officials should be mindful that “there are a lot of people who are very concerned about this.”

“You’ve got to let the judicial process work,” he said. “Hopefully it’s done at a pace that is respectful for people hurting.”

Bush added that he still liked the measure. “Applied properly, I support the law,” he said.

http://www.dallasnews.com/news/community-news/arlington/headlines/20120323-in-arlington-jeb-bush-says-stand-your-ground-invalid-in-trayvon-martin-case.ece

[Back]

"Never let a crisis go to waste"... This has nothing to do with the Stand Your Ground law and everything to do with the Progressives trying to tie the incident to the law in order to garner public support to repeal it. Zimmerman wasn't standing any ground.. he was the the aggressor in this case.


Bush signed the law, pushed for by gun-rights advocates, in 2005. It allows people to use deadly force rather than retreat if they feel threatened, even if they are not at home. Police and prosecutors cited the law in deciding not to charge Martin’s killer.

So... you think the police and prosecutors who cited the law as a reason for not arresting him are progressives who are trying to tie the incident to the law in order to garner public support to repeal it?

Clearly you are so determined to point the blame at those you disagree with you are confusing yourself about who and what the real issues are.

[ClydeR]

"Never let a crisis go to waste"... This has nothing to do with the Stand Your Ground law and everything to do with the Progressives trying to tie the incident to the law in order to garner public support to repeal it. Zimmerman wasn't standing any ground.. he was the the aggressor in this case.

QFT