ClydeR
03-07-2012, 11:03 AM
After Romney's lackluster performance yesterday, especially among conservatives (http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/292802/danger-signals-romney-john-fund), it's time to do some math and realize that Romney is unlikely to have a majority of pledged delegates by the time of the convention.
Consider this: if Mitt wins every remaining all-or-nothing state but one, and half of the remaining proportional delegates, he would likely still fall short of the magic nomination number of 1,144—which would force him to rely on unpledged delegates, the Republican version of the infamous Democratic super-delegates in 2008, to claim his party’s mantle.
Even if Mitt somehow won every delegate in every coming contest, he still wouldn’t clinch the nomination until Oregon’s primary on May 15.
And if Romney musters only 40 percent of the proportional delegates going forward—equivalent to his share of the popular vote total to date—it would mean the first Republican race undecided when the convention opened in a generation.
In a press briefing later today, the Romney camp is expected to argue that Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have no chance of claiming the nomination, comparing their uphill climb to the extended delegate fight between Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in 2008. This is true, but it purposefully misses the point. Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul individually have no real path to winning the delegate fight—but collectively they are positioned to deny the nomination to Romney and kick the contest to the convention in Tampa, where all delegates are released after the first ballot.
More... (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/03/07/no-clear-path-to-victory-for-romney.html)
Not mentioned in the article is the unresolved issue of states -- Florida (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/floridas-winner-take-all-delegate-situation-explained/2012/01/31/gIQAXWhRfQ_blog.html), host of the 2012 Republican Convention -- that have attempted to award all delegates on a winner-take-all basis when the rules required them to award delegates proportionally. Will the convention honor the rules and reallocate those delegates?
Consider this: if Mitt wins every remaining all-or-nothing state but one, and half of the remaining proportional delegates, he would likely still fall short of the magic nomination number of 1,144—which would force him to rely on unpledged delegates, the Republican version of the infamous Democratic super-delegates in 2008, to claim his party’s mantle.
Even if Mitt somehow won every delegate in every coming contest, he still wouldn’t clinch the nomination until Oregon’s primary on May 15.
And if Romney musters only 40 percent of the proportional delegates going forward—equivalent to his share of the popular vote total to date—it would mean the first Republican race undecided when the convention opened in a generation.
In a press briefing later today, the Romney camp is expected to argue that Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have no chance of claiming the nomination, comparing their uphill climb to the extended delegate fight between Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in 2008. This is true, but it purposefully misses the point. Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul individually have no real path to winning the delegate fight—but collectively they are positioned to deny the nomination to Romney and kick the contest to the convention in Tampa, where all delegates are released after the first ballot.
More... (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/03/07/no-clear-path-to-victory-for-romney.html)
Not mentioned in the article is the unresolved issue of states -- Florida (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/floridas-winner-take-all-delegate-situation-explained/2012/01/31/gIQAXWhRfQ_blog.html), host of the 2012 Republican Convention -- that have attempted to award all delegates on a winner-take-all basis when the rules required them to award delegates proportionally. Will the convention honor the rules and reallocate those delegates?