ClydeR
07-21-2009, 11:17 AM
Mr. Frey cautioned that while the long-term demographic changes favor any candidate that can best harness minority voters, Mr. Obama's success in 2008 doesn't mean an easy road to victory awaits him in 2012. Whites accounted for 76% of voters in 2008, down three percentage points from 2004 but still a substantial majority. His rival, Sen. John McCain, won white voters by 12 percentage points, versus the 17 percentage-point margin enjoyed by George W. Bush in 2004. A Republican candidate who could capture a larger share of whites could neutralize the minority edge that went to Mr. Obama.
"President Obama can continue that momentum only if he continues to hold onto minorities and also hold Republicans at bay among white voters," Mr. Frey said.
Mr. Frey found minority voters made the difference in several key states: North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Indiana, Maryland and New Jersey. Mr. Obama's ability to win over minorities there overcame white voters who favored John McCain.
More... (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124813588601666995.html)
That means Obama probably won't win again in 2012.
"President Obama can continue that momentum only if he continues to hold onto minorities and also hold Republicans at bay among white voters," Mr. Frey said.
Mr. Frey found minority voters made the difference in several key states: North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Indiana, Maryland and New Jersey. Mr. Obama's ability to win over minorities there overcame white voters who favored John McCain.
More... (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124813588601666995.html)
That means Obama probably won't win again in 2012.