Obama 30 minute spot

[Kefka]

Already on youtube:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtREqAmLsoA

[Daniel]

thanks. My mom was looking for that.

Trying to explain what youtube was was painful.

[Methais]

Did you try telling her, "A site where people upload videos."?

[Jorddyn]

Obama's on Jon Stewart now.

"I don't think the white voters got the memo about the Bradley effect."

[Tsa`ah]

Obama's on Jon Stewart now.

"I don't think the white voters got the memo about the Bradley effect."

That was pretty funny. Interestingly enough ... there's really no such thing as the "Bradley effect".

[Daniel]

Did you try telling her, "A site where people upload videos."?

She's old.

She had me spell youtube like three times.

[ClydeR]

The ad reminded me of the videos shown at both conventions between speakers. You only got to see those ads if you watched the conventions on C-Span, because the cable news channels had their pundits on between speakers and didn't show the videos. It was higher quality than the videos at the conventions but similar in message.

Some of the people in the video were sympathetic. After the ad ended, I found myself thinking again about the lady with arthritis whose medicines were so expensive that her retired husband had to go back to work and they had to take out a mortgage on their home. She looked like she would be over 65, which made me wonder why the new Medicare prescription drug plan didn't help her more.

The few minutes of live broadcast at the end went without a hitch.

I'll be interested in seeing numbers on how many watched the ad.

[Keller]

That was pretty funny. Interestingly enough ... there's really no such thing as the "Bradley effect".

We'll see soon enough.

[Valthissa]

That was pretty funny. Interestingly enough ... there's really no such thing as the "Bradley effect".

Did you mean to say there is no such thing as the "Bradley Effect" in 2008?

http://people.iq.harvard.edu/~dhopkins/wilder13.pdf

The above is one link to an academic paper on the subject, you can find many more.

Of course McCain needs a miracle, not an effect, to get to 270.

C/Valth

[Atlanteax]

I saw several surveys *prior* to the 30-min that indicated lack of interest in watching...

One (that had people in the pension benefits industry respond) had the following statistics:

16% said they planned to watch
60% was a mix of "no" "ugh, enough politics already" etc
and the reminder was a mix of responses like "if nothing better is on"

.

While it was probably an excellent decision to buy up broadcast time to get his message out near the end of the election campaign for momentum purposes (retain and deny) ... on the other hand, it's probably too late at this point for such "get out the message" where by now, an increasing number of people are just getting turned off by it all.

People in the 18-29 bracket that I've spoken to, and parents with kids in that bracket relay what their kids are saying... over the past few days are more and more expressing the opinion that they're totally disillusioned by the saturation and the negativity that they don't think they'll vote.

This is a contributing factor to my comment yesterday in another thread that the 18-29 voter participation level probably will fall significantly short of the much-hyped record-setting level.

... where we'll still see a strong turnout by those with a vested stake in the election (ie "I don't want to pay more taxes") vote for McCain ... and he ends up winning the swing states and by extension, the election.

[Warriorbird]

You talk to 18-29 year olds?

[Athgo]

Most people I know (mid 20's) are either not voting or throwing away a vote on third party candidates because they are sick of all the bullshit of this election.

EDIT: Obama's spot was boring too, lost me in the first 5 minutes.

[Tsa`ah]

Did you mean to say there is no such thing as the "Bradley Effect" in 2008?

http://people.iq.harvard.edu/~dhopkins/wilder13.pdf

The above is one link to an academic paper on the subject, you can find many more.

Of course McCain needs a miracle, not an effect, to get to 270.

C/Valth

The problem with academic papers, even theorizing on the aspect of it, is that they omit one very important fact ... the exit polling, while spot on, was inadequate.

The method of polling did not take absentee ballots, that heavily favored the republican candidate, into account. Campaign officials for Bradley jumped the gun by concluding it was racial before they got the news it was due to poor polling methods in regards to absentee ballots.

There never was, and has never been, a Bradley effect since 1982.

[Tsa`ah]

...

First, it wasn't for those that have decided. Second, it effectively shuts down the McCain machine by taking over the 24 hour news cycle.

[Atlanteax]

First, it wasn't for those that have decided. Second, it effectively shuts down the McCain machine by taking over the 24 hour news cycle.

Yea, I ceded that it was a good move by the Obama campaign to deny McCain any momentum by doing so.

[Valthissa]

The problem with academic papers, even theorizing on the aspect of it, is that they omit one very important fact ... the exit polling, while spot on, was inadequate.

The method of polling did not take absentee ballots, that heavily favored the republican candidate, into account. Campaign officials for Bradley jumped the gun by concluding it was racial before they got the news it was due to poor polling methods in regards to absentee ballots.

There never was, and has never been, a Bradley effect since 1982.

The problem with your analysis of this academic paper is that it looks at 133 elections from 1989 to 2006 and draws conclusions from those races, not the 1982 California gubernatorial race.

Those conclusions are that there was an effect of around 2% in the 90's but that effect has dissipated.

C/Valth

[Sean]

People in the 18-29 bracket that I've spoken to, and parents with kids in that bracket relay what their kids are saying... over the past few days are more and more expressing the opinion that they're totally disillusioned by the saturation and the negativity that they don't think they'll vote.

What county are you in? As part of that 18-29 bracket here in essex none of my peers in the same age bracket have expressed disillusionment or that they don't intend to vote due to oversaturation or negativity.

[Tsa`ah]

The problem with your analysis of this academic paper is that it looks at 133 elections from 1989 to 2006 and draws conclusions from those races, not the 1982 California gubernatorial race.

Those conclusions are that there was an effect of around 2% in the 90's but that effect has dissipated.

C/Valth

Point taken ... I didn't bother reading the paper at first simply because it was probably the 30th or so paper someone has referenced in support of the "effect" pertaining to the Bradley campaign.

It should be noted that Obama didn't suffer from such an effect during the primaries, as a whole, considering his average return outperformed polling by 3.3 points.

[BigWorm]

I thought it was very well put together, though there is no way that Obama (or McCain for that matter) can possibly keep all the promises that are being made.

If nothing else, I think it will help to rally supporters for the final week.

[Adequate Picker]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/fact_check_obama_ad;_ylt=AlDK44ns2M9FvX0aAWgS.ZEaz JV4

[Necromancer]

The infomercial was awesome frankly. Strategically yes it was amazing. But as far as its content and format- it's going to garner him a LOT of undecided voters in swing states (which is what it was geared towards)

[ClydeR]

The numbers are out on Obama's infomercial.


More than 33.5 million people watched Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's half-hour prime-time political ad Wednesday night, according to Nielsen Media Research.

That number includes viewers who watched the ad, which aired at 8 p.m., on CBS, Fox, NBC, Univision, BET, MSNBC and TV One. The Obama special out-rated those networks' regularly scheduled programs, which have drawn a combined average audience of 30.3 million in the 8 p.m. Wednesday time slot this fall. By comparison, the first -- and lowest-rated -- debate between Sen. Obama and Republican presidential nominee John McCain attracted 52.4 million viewers.

More... (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122541384662886555.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

[Parkbandit]

Not that spectacular.. and I wonder how many were tuning into which channel. I imagine you will see a pretty large bump for Fox.. since the World Series was on right after.

[Keller]

Not that spectacular.. and I wonder how many were tuning into which channel. I imagine you will see a pretty large bump for Fox.. since the World Series was on right after.

The infomercial ratings were considerably higher than the WS ratings.

[Necromancer]

Those numbers also don't reflect all of the people who watched it online afterwarsd (It became very available). So its actual influence was likely quite a bit more than the numbers suggest.