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View Full Version : OPEC is freaking out, man



Keller
10-16-2008, 06:51 PM
Fuck OPEC and fuck anyone sitting on oil futures.

Karma is a fucking bitch.

http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=17027006

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NEW YORK: Oil prices plummeted Thursday, falling below $70 a barrel for the first time in 16 months, prompting the OPEC oil cartel to call for an emergency meeting next week.

The rapid decline in prices had alarmed both petroleum company executives and oil producers, who are becoming increasingly nervous that oil's roller-coaster ride undermines the stability of energy markets.

Oil prices have dropped sharply in recent weeks amid the economic crisis and lower consumption in developed nations. In New York, oil futures fell as much as 8 percent to $68.57 a barrel Thursday, their lowest level since June 2007. Oil has lost half its value since hitting a record $147.27 a barrel in July.

While not quite a rout yet, the precipitous drop undermines the elusive quest for stability that both oil producers and petroleum executives say they need to invest over the long term. The sharp decline Thursday prompted OPEC members to move up an emergency meeting - initially set for Nov. 18 - to next Friday, to look for ways to stem the price decline. Analysts expect the cartel's producers to reduce their production by about 1 million barrels a day.

The surprise announcement came a week after OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which controls about 40 percent of the world's oil exports, said its members would meet in November "amid growing unease over the situation." But some OPEC members have been alarmed at the panic selling in commodity markets and successfully lobbied for an earlier meeting.

The concern now for producers is that the decline in prices could reduce future revenues and possibly crimp investments.

The Iranian oil minister, Gholamhossein Nozari, said in Tehran on Tuesday, "I think the low price is a real damage to the future of production."
The same question is also weighing on the mind of many energy experts. Does a period of lower prices mean the oil industry will repeat the errors of the past and sharply curtail its investments?

Since oil is a cyclical business, some energy analysts fear that today's downturn could set the stage for a new price rally if oil companies cut their exploration spending.

From its inception more than a century ago, the oil industry has gone through countless up and down cycles, and oil companies have often underinvested in periods of falling prices. The price collapse of the 1980s led companies to reduce investments and sparked a wave of mega-mergers through the sector.

But the industry's retrenchment in the face of lower prices left the world scrambling for oil when demand from Asian and Latin American economies soared over the past decade.

Now, after nearly a decade of growth, the economic slowdown means there will be less demand for energy in the foreseeable future.

These concerns were on the minds of petroleum executives who gathered at an industry conference in Venice last weekend. The titans of the oil industry worried that a prolonged recession, tighter credit, and lower energy consumption would mean slower growth in energy supplies in coming years. The credit freeze has already forced some projects to be scaled back, some energy analysts said.

"This is a real test," Jeroen van der Veer, the chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell, said during an interview on the sidelines of the conference. "Some people will be overstretched and there will be some delays in some projects."

The problem is that if companies pared their investments they would set the stage for a new surge in prices when demand eventually picks up, according to J. Robinson West, the chairman of PFC Energy, the consulting company hosting the conference.

Many experts have warned that such a crunch may happen within the next five years, and could once again propel oil prices into triple-digit territory. Over the past decade, the growth in oil consumption has outpaced the ability of producers to boost production.

A senior oil executive said that the industry was determined not to let history repeat itself. Many oil executives do not expect the current crisis to fundamentally alter the fact that developing economies will need more energy in the future. By 2030, more than three-quarters of the world's energy will still be derived from hydrocarbons, including oil, gas and coal.

"Investments in exploration and production are very much linked to the price of oil," said Didier Houssin, the head of oil markets at the International Energy Agency, which advises industrial nations on energy policy. "What we can fear is that the financial crisis leads to delays in many projects."

The drop in prices has already created problems for oil producers, who have become accustomed to high prices. Iran and Venezuela both need oil prices at $95 a barrel to balance their budgets, Russia needs $70 and Saudi Arabia needs $55 a barrel, according to Deutsche Bank estimates.

The Algerian oil minister, Chakib Khelil, estimated Thursday that the "ideal" price for crude oil was between $70 and $90 a barrel.

In Russia, which is not part of OPEC, the drop in prices is threatening the country's ability to increase production. The Russian government has reportedly agreed to allocate $9 billion to its four major producers - Lukoil, Gazprom, Rosneft and TNK-BP - to help them cope with investment needs amid the credit crisis.

In the United States, Chesapeake Energy, a gas producer, has recently indicated that it would reduce its capital investments over the next few years in response to falling prices.

Global oil demand is undeniably slowing down, particularly in developed nations. Japanese oil consumption tumbled by 12 percent in August, while in the United States demand fell by 8 percent in September.

Still, consumption is growing in developing nations, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years. The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to grow by just 400,000 barrels a day this year, to 86.5 million barrels a day. At the beginning of the year, the agency was expecting growth of more than two million barrels for 2008.

"We pretty much know where supplies are going to come from in future years, but today the biggest uncertainty is demand," said Christophe de Margerie, the chief executive of the French oil company Total.

Stanley Burrell
10-16-2008, 06:54 PM
I hope the government bails out my oil investments, Laura.

Drew
10-16-2008, 06:56 PM
You are freaking out...... man.

Stanley Burrell
10-16-2008, 06:58 PM
Let's just hope we can get some relief from the taxpayer so that this won't have to make it to the top in order for any possible freezes to be unilaterally vetoed down. In order to provide for its extra financing; necessary to preserve patriotism, defeat the tarr'rists, and save Christianity.

Edited to Add: Let's just make this quick, I'm tired of politicians playing politics.

.

Early off-topic tangent:

http://www.tonymagicman.com/PRIVATE/MONKEY.JPG

Solkern
10-16-2008, 07:00 PM
Since I'm not very diverse in Economics

I've heard that oil is the only good that is using/traded/sold on the US dollar, how bad does this really effect us? the price of oil dropping...does it effect the value of the dollar?

Stanley Burrell
10-16-2008, 07:05 PM
Since I'm not very diverse in Economics

I've heard that oil is the only good that is using/traded/sold on the US dollar, how bad does this really effect us? the price of oil dropping...does it effect the value of the dollar?

What about slaves?

Stanley Burrell
10-16-2008, 07:21 PM
By the way, yes, you think I'm an idiot. Thank you for your invaluable opinion: May it reach Euro resale value.

The day the United States consciously severs its moneymaking through OPEC is the day that I spoon out my eyes with an ice cream scooper, and replace them with cadbury Easter eggs. My family may hate the suicide, but everyone loves cadbury cream eggs -- Why disappoint loved ones with plain old boring gouged-out empty eye sockets, when you can surprise them with chocolate instead?!

In the future news, with softer language: OPEC given funds by the United States to improve foreign relations between its 13 nations and create a more stable global economy, a step towards bettering humanity, thirteen times, without any personal interest. Long live Teleos.

Yeah, you didn't read this post.

Solkern
10-16-2008, 07:24 PM
Dunno found this great site

pretty much sums up, that the dollar is going to be the first currency to collapse heh

http://www.dollarcollapse.com/faq/default.asp?CATE=0

Stanley Burrell
10-16-2008, 07:37 PM
<< http://www.dollarcollapse.com/faq/default.asp?CATE=0 >>

That site makes my eyes hurt like my posts reassure people of what an incessant babbler I am.

How much hallucinogenic substances does each and every member of the public need to consume in order to believe they can purchase solid gold as a personal investment?

See, I was going to buy a couple thousand gold bars, but had to make a last minute substitution with the Mona Lisa, The Star of India, a first edition copy of The Bible (written and autographed by God.)

And Red Bull.

By the way, if and when the Dow drops to 5k, the 10% unemployment line that starts making life a lot uneasier for the upperclassmen has its prerogatives based solely in capitalism.

Bobmuhthol
10-16-2008, 08:20 PM
<<Since I'm not very diverse in Economics

I've heard that oil is the only good that is using/traded/sold on the US dollar, how bad does this really effect us? the price of oil dropping...does it effect the value of the dollar?>>

All commodities are priced in USD. Every country sees correlations between the value of its currency and the commodity futures on its main exports (Canada with oil, etc.).

Inspire
10-16-2008, 09:40 PM
Someone tell me why oil dropping is a bad thing?

We seriously need to develop clean cars so we can send a big FU to OPEC.

Stanley Burrell
10-16-2008, 09:46 PM
Someone tell me why oil dropping is a bad thing?

Devil's advocate: I invested in it, it feeds my family. It pays the bills. It puts the lotion in the basket.


We seriously need to develop

We might need to. I've noticed, using two or maybe five brain cells, that we are a ... stubborn people. So serious needs can't be taken very seriously, sometimes.

Bobmuhthol
10-16-2008, 11:48 PM
<<Someone tell me why oil dropping is a bad thing?>>

Any time you're away from equilibrium it's a bad thing. There is such a thing as oil dropping too low.

Mistomeer
10-17-2008, 12:25 AM
Oil dropping is a bad thing as it relates to the market as a whole - all commodities are dropping. This is because of recession fear and a weak economy. Once the economy rebounds, you'll see all commodities, including oil, bounce back up. That is why I am going to double long oil.

Seran
10-17-2008, 08:13 AM
Let us not discount the fact that oil was selling from twenty dollars to roughly thirty dollars between 2001 and 2004. That anyone can justify the price surge to eighty, to one hundred, or even one hundred-forty dollars is ridiculous.

It should strike some of you as ironic that the oil producing countries jacked up their government spending based off of artificially increased crude prices and are now about to pay the price for their greed. It's the same thing that ever hedge fund, mortgage security broker, and investment bank that's fail has done.

Fuck'em.

RainyDay2080
10-17-2008, 08:54 AM
This is way out of my area of expertise and I can understand the need for pricing stability. But why wasn't the instability of artificially soaring prices a problem for oil companies? Why can't they use the mind blowing profits from this last year to help support investment now that it's a reasonable price? Why is oil selling for a similar price it was a year or two ago (lost track of when the last time the price was in this range) a crisis when it wasn't a crisis then? I admit I might not know a thing about this, but something seems really fishy when the prices drop back into the sane range that they were not too long ago and that's a reason to panic.

Though I think sane gas pump prices are bad for alternative energy development because it encourages people to go back to their gas guzzling ways and put off thinking about the future again.

RD

Keller
10-17-2008, 09:08 AM
Though I think sane gas pump prices are bad for alternative energy development because it encourages people to go back to their gas guzzling ways and put off thinking about the future again.

I'm not sure.

I think the price of oil is going down because the market expects consumers couldn't afford gas at the August 2008 prices.

I don't expect demand to increase as GDP continues to stall, even with lower prices.