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View Full Version : Latest IDP/TIPP poll : If you're into polls that is.


Gan
10-16-2008, 05:20 PM
Someone touted this as the most accurate poll in the 04 elections.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY3.html

And the results are pretty scary if you're an Obama supporter.

Obama 45%
McCain 42%
Undecided 13%

Std Dev: 3.5%


Can anyone else confirm the validity of this poll being an accurate representation?
Drew
10-16-2008, 05:31 PM
The gender difference is interesting.
oldanforgotten
10-16-2008, 05:39 PM
Someone touted this as the most accurate poll in the 04 elections.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY3.html

And the results are pretty scary if you're an Obama supporter.

Obama 45%
McCain 42%
Undecided 13%

Std Dev: 3.5%


Can anyone else confirm the validity of this poll being an accurate representation?


IBD is probably the most neutral polling group, because they are well known for NOT having an agenda.

The one weakness in their polling methods, however, is that they generall only sample people who have voted in the past. That discounts the new voters, and can lead to misleading results if new voters breakdown differently from existing voters.
Gan
10-18-2008, 02:09 PM
<crickets>

I love it.
Solkern
10-18-2008, 02:12 PM
^
Daniel
10-18-2008, 02:40 PM
I'm sure you'd have a lot to say if I
Posted any other poll taken in the last few weeks... Hey. If you wanna believe this one over all the others more power to you.
Gan
10-18-2008, 02:59 PM
Someone touted this as the most accurate poll in the 04 elections.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY3.html

And the results are pretty scary if you're an Obama supporter.

Obama 45%
McCain 42%
Undecided 13%

Std Dev: 3.5%


Can anyone else confirm the validity of this poll being an accurate representation?


I'm sure you'd have a lot to say if I
Posted any other poll taken in the last few weeks... Hey. If you wanna believe this one over all the others more power to you.

Just saying...
Daniel
10-18-2008, 03:08 PM
who's to say? Polls are polls. But I wouldn't take karl rove's word as objective. That's just me tho.
Tsa`ah
10-19-2008, 10:56 AM
And the results are pretty scary if you're an Obama supporter.

Not really (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5).
Gan
10-19-2008, 11:20 AM
Not really (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5).

Reread the first post again.
Stretch
10-19-2008, 01:26 PM
Not that I pay attention any other polls, but sample size of less than 1000? Really?
Euler
10-19-2008, 02:26 PM
And the results are pretty scary if you're an Obama supporter.

Obama 45%
McCain 42%




crickets

I am just not sure what, as an Obama supporter, I am to fear? Your poll has my guy ahead... Or is it that this poll only has us leading, and not crushing?
Warriorbird
10-19-2008, 02:36 PM
Seems pretty accurate to me.
Tsa`ah
10-19-2008, 03:49 PM
Reread the first post again.

What is there to read? I responded to what you said should be scary to Obama supporters.

See, you attempted to use the poll results as some ominous forecast for Obama supporters ... disguised as a request for validation. I merely responded to the core of the post rather than point out the flaws.

So, as I said, looking at RCP's electoral predictions .... not really.
Gan
10-19-2008, 04:49 PM
Actually, since we're discussing polls in this thread. RCP has Obama ahead by only 5 now.

Considerable drop in the overall RCP polling average.
Kefka
10-19-2008, 07:42 PM
Actually, since we're discussing polls in this thread. RCP has Obama ahead by only 5 now.

Considerable drop in the overall RCP polling average.

Hmmm... I thought you didn't believe in polls.
Gan
10-19-2008, 08:36 PM
Hmmm... I thought you didn't believe in polls.

I dont.

*Pay really close attention to the title of the thread.

;)
Kembal
10-19-2008, 10:15 PM
And now IBD/TIPP is 5 points ahead. One daily tracking poll snapshot isn't much. Weighting it with the other 5 or 6 out there gives you a better idea of the national mood.
Kefka
10-20-2008, 12:30 AM
I dont.

*Pay really close attention to the title of the thread.

;)

I did. Just a little weird that you're starting a thread for something you don't believe in.
Gan
10-20-2008, 07:24 AM
I did. Just a little weird that you're starting a thread for something you don't believe in.

Irony. It brings a whole new dimension to posting information or topics of discussion.

To state the obvious, this whole thread was a dig against those who love to tout polling numbers.

Noob.
Gan
10-20-2008, 07:32 AM
And now IBD/TIPP is 5 points ahead. One daily tracking poll snapshot isn't much. Weighting it with the other 5 or 6 out there gives you a better idea of the national mood.

Dont you find it interesting that the RCP gives you an average of 7 major polls and yet does not average the standard deviation as well?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

WR2 your daily tracking comment. If I put much stock in polls I would agree with your statement.
Kefka
10-20-2008, 11:24 AM
Irony. It brings a whole new dimension to posting information or topics of discussion.

To state the obvious, this whole thread was a dig against those who love to tout polling numbers.

Noob.

I see... So you chose the least talked about poll to make a thread about. To be honest, I had to do a search to find out what idp/tipp was. As long as it makes you feel better, that's all that matters. :)
Tsa`ah
10-20-2008, 11:29 AM
National polls are about worthless, less worthless are the state polls that give us electoral maps ... which all show Obama clearing the win without the need of "toss up" states.

So if 5 points makes you feel better ... better use it as a security blanket because time's running out and McCain is not making any progress.