ClydeR
09-02-2008, 08:13 PM
Online prediction market Intrade has launched a contract on the probability of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin being dropped as John McCain’s running mate ahead of the November presidential election. Palin was named Friday as the Republican VP choice, surprising many political pundits, though she had emerged as the frontrunner on Intrade’s own VP market. The nascent market put the probability of her withdrawal from the contest at 15% today, in the wake of news that the social conservative’s 17-year old daughter is pregnant.
The news came as little-known Gov. Palin and her family are undergoing their first heavy scrutiny from the national press. The pick has galvanized the party’s previously lackluster religious base, and jump-started Internet fund raising. But Sen. McCain also is drawing criticism, including from some Republicans, for choosing a politician with no national experience, and some Republicans are worried the choice could backfire. – Doug Cameron
More... (http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/09/02/place-your-bets-intrade-starts-palin-market/)
I think she will not withdraw, because of the Eagleton factor. If she withdraws, then McCain will appear to have exercised bad judgment in selecting her in the first place.
Picture it. 1972. Public opposition to the Vietnam War is reaching a fever pitch. Nixon is ascendant. The long shot Democrat nominee chooses, with very little vetting, Thomas Eagleton as his running mate.
Having been declined by the "name" Senators, McGovern turned to lesser-known candidates, and Eagleton, who had opposed the Vietnam War, was selected on July 14 with only a minimal background check. Eagleton made no mention of his earlier hospitalizations. Newspapers soon revealed them. McGovern and Eagleton initially joked about the case with Eagleton saying he would undergo a psychiatric examination if other candidates (e.g., Nixon) would do the same. But the charges kept coming. Columnist Jack Anderson wrote a column falsely accusing Eagleton of being arrested for drunk driving — a charge that Anderson had to retract.
Replacement on the ticket
McGovern said he would back Eagleton “1000%”, but on August 1, Eagleton withdrew at McGovern's request and, after new search by McGovern, was replaced by Kennedy in-law Sargent Shriver.
A Time magazine poll taken at the time found that 77 percent of the respondents said "Eagleton's medical record would not affect their vote." Nonetheless, the press made frequent references to his shock therapy, and McGovern feared that this would detract from his campaign platform.[3]
McGovern's handling of the controversy was an opening for the Republican campaign to raise serious questions about his judgment. In the general election, the Democratic ticket won only Massachusetts and the District of Columbia.
More... (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Eagleton)
What the McCain campaign needs to do is get her on some interview programs on the teevee so she can answer questions about the issues that have been raised since McCain chose her. That should calm everybody's fears.
Follow the new Intrade contract here (http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=638242&z=1220400526990).
So says Clyde.
The news came as little-known Gov. Palin and her family are undergoing their first heavy scrutiny from the national press. The pick has galvanized the party’s previously lackluster religious base, and jump-started Internet fund raising. But Sen. McCain also is drawing criticism, including from some Republicans, for choosing a politician with no national experience, and some Republicans are worried the choice could backfire. – Doug Cameron
More... (http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/09/02/place-your-bets-intrade-starts-palin-market/)
I think she will not withdraw, because of the Eagleton factor. If she withdraws, then McCain will appear to have exercised bad judgment in selecting her in the first place.
Picture it. 1972. Public opposition to the Vietnam War is reaching a fever pitch. Nixon is ascendant. The long shot Democrat nominee chooses, with very little vetting, Thomas Eagleton as his running mate.
Having been declined by the "name" Senators, McGovern turned to lesser-known candidates, and Eagleton, who had opposed the Vietnam War, was selected on July 14 with only a minimal background check. Eagleton made no mention of his earlier hospitalizations. Newspapers soon revealed them. McGovern and Eagleton initially joked about the case with Eagleton saying he would undergo a psychiatric examination if other candidates (e.g., Nixon) would do the same. But the charges kept coming. Columnist Jack Anderson wrote a column falsely accusing Eagleton of being arrested for drunk driving — a charge that Anderson had to retract.
Replacement on the ticket
McGovern said he would back Eagleton “1000%”, but on August 1, Eagleton withdrew at McGovern's request and, after new search by McGovern, was replaced by Kennedy in-law Sargent Shriver.
A Time magazine poll taken at the time found that 77 percent of the respondents said "Eagleton's medical record would not affect their vote." Nonetheless, the press made frequent references to his shock therapy, and McGovern feared that this would detract from his campaign platform.[3]
McGovern's handling of the controversy was an opening for the Republican campaign to raise serious questions about his judgment. In the general election, the Democratic ticket won only Massachusetts and the District of Columbia.
More... (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Eagleton)
What the McCain campaign needs to do is get her on some interview programs on the teevee so she can answer questions about the issues that have been raised since McCain chose her. That should calm everybody's fears.
Follow the new Intrade contract here (http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=638242&z=1220400526990).
So says Clyde.