ClydeR
08-04-2008, 10:33 AM
As you can see, the incumbent party sometimes loses but they never have gotten really slaughtered. In periods of low economic growth, the incumbent party can lose, but a 53-47 margin would be typical; you wouldn’t expect the challenger to get much more than that. Such things can happen (see, for example, Eisenhower’s performance against Stevenson in 1952) but it wouldn’t be expected.
More... (http://redbluerichpoor.com/blog/?p=19)
I can't copy the chart referred to above. You'll have to click on the link to view it.
What it shows is that in times of economic growth, even very low economic growth like we have now, the incumbent party seldom loses a presidential election by more than a small margin. The author suggests that current election polls are in line with what should be expected based on an analysis of economic conditions during past elections.
What is past is prologue?
More... (http://redbluerichpoor.com/blog/?p=19)
I can't copy the chart referred to above. You'll have to click on the link to view it.
What it shows is that in times of economic growth, even very low economic growth like we have now, the incumbent party seldom loses a presidential election by more than a small margin. The author suggests that current election polls are in line with what should be expected based on an analysis of economic conditions during past elections.
What is past is prologue?