Call the race: New Hampshire (Democrats)

[875000]

Select who you think will place first in New Hampshire. Then, contribute your thoughts on the race and predictions on the spread below

[Snapp]

Biden in '08!

Delaware ftw!

[Daniel]

He dropped out.

[Snapp]

OMG REALLY?!

[Daniel]

Yea. After Iowa.

[Snapp]

Okay, thx for the info!

[Kembal]

This one is fairly obvious, though it is a humorous juxtaposition to see the two people who voted for Clinton in this poll.

edit: oh yeah, spread of 9 between Obama and Clinton.

[Xaerve]

Jonathon Edwards
Barak Obama

I'm really glad people like you are covering this election!

Try out Barack Obama and John Edwards, for size. His actual full name is "Johnny Reid "John" Edwards", for those curious.

[Tsa`ah]

Does your e-peen feel bigger now?

[Xaerve]

Does your e-peen feel bigger now?

No, I just think attention to detail is important. And if you're going to make poll posts constantly to up your post count, or whatever, you could at least take the time to spell their names correctly/not fabricate an entire first name.

Not sure what this has to do with e-peen.

I also think 99% of your comments are pointless.

[Tsa`ah]

Considering the guy who put up the poll isn't a poll whore ... your e-peen brandishing was 99.9% pointless.

You have a habit of jumping in to snipe yet at the same time offer nothing ... hence e-peen.

[Xaerve]

Considering the guy who put up the poll isn't a poll whore ... your e-peen brandishing was 99.9% pointless.

You have a habit of jumping in to snipe yet at the same time offer nothing ... hence e-peen.

I actually don't post that much.

I do like getting a rise out of you though ex-super-moderator.

[Tsa`ah]

I actually don't post that much.

I do like getting a rise out of you though ex-super-moderator.

Let me LOL at Lycain thinking he gets a rise out of me.

[BigWorm]

I think today will probably be the end of the race on the Dems side, especially for Clinton. The next showdown is in South Carolina, which is right in Edward's back yard, but I think Obama will be getting the nomination.

[Kefka]

If Obama takes it today, it's pretty much over for both Clinton and Edwards. After Iowa, Clinton had an 11 point lead in New Hampshire. Now it has Obama with a 7 point lead. At this point, he seems like a tidal wave that can take both New York and South Carolina easily.

[Parkbandit]

You have a habit of jumping in to snipe yet at the same time offer nothing ... hence e-peen.


http://i36.photobucket.com/albums/e6/belike53/AHypocriteAlert.jpg

It's extremely amusing to me that you call out someone for this.. yet, you were the one that did the exact thing in this thread. Xaerve simply pointed out that it's not Jonathan.. it's John... and you come in and throw your "Does your e-peen feel bigger now?" comment. At the very least.. he's on topic. You've offered NOTHING to the conversation.

Seriously.. it's like you are trying to step in and fill the hypocrite void Backlash left.

[Parkbandit]

If Obama takes it today, it's pretty much over for both Clinton and Edwards. After Iowa, Clinton had an 11 point lead in New Hampshire. Now it has Obama with a 7 point lead. At this point, he seems like a tidal wave that can take both New York and South Carolina easily.

It was over for Edwards from the beginning imo. He has neither the message, nor the funds to continue.

I doubt it's over for Clinton though. She'll still take NY and will offer Obama a run on Super Tuesday. If she can't win the nomination though after that.. she'll drop out and cash her check.

[Tsa`ah]

If Obama takes it today, it's pretty much over for both Clinton and Edwards. After Iowa, Clinton had an 11 point lead in New Hampshire. Now it has Obama with a 7 point lead. At this point, he seems like a tidal wave that can take both New York and South Carolina easily.

It's over for Clinton definately. She needs the lead here because she's not getting it in SC. Had she eeked out Obama in IA ... she'd have a chance. IA and NH don't have the black population SC has.

That's not to say the black population is going Obama because he's black, they're going Obama because they wouldn't be throwing away their votes (it's evident white people will vote for Obama en mass). Immediately Clinton becomes disadvantaged.

1. Edwardsville.
2. She loses the black vote she was counting on.

There's also the McCain factor.

If McCain wins the GOP ... it becomes a trapshoot for him against Clinton. This is a guy who doesn't ear mark and doesn't take lobby cash. Life long registered democrats know this and will vote accordingly.

If she loses tonight, she'll need to absolutely clean up in the Super. Otherwise she's just going to cut campaign spending, but increase fund raising ... for that rainy day. That, and if you've seen Bill on the attack today ... he has probably single handedly sunk his wife's campaign.

[Gan]

I think today will probably be the end of the race on the Dems side, especially for Clinton. The next showdown is in South Carolina, which is right in Edward's back yard, but I think Obama will be getting the nomination.

Wasnt it Edward own state governor who refused to endorse him earlier last year?

I wouldnt count SC as an automatic win for Edwards.

[Gan]

That, and if you've seen Bill on the attack today ... he has probably single handedly sunk his wife's campaign.

I've read up on what Bill's been doing, its disasterous. He's cashing in his legacy chips faster than a 3am drunk in Vegas at the blackjack tables.

[Parkbandit]

That, and if you've seen Bill on the attack today ... he has probably single handedly sunk his wife's campaign.

I never thought that Bill really wanted to be the country's First Gentleman. He's an extremely shrewd politician... could it be that he's sinking her campaign on purpose?

[BigWorm]

I wouldnt count SC as an automatic win for Edwards.

Me either, which is why I said I thought Obama was going to win there.

[Latrinsorm]

Results are beginning to be posted on CNN.com.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#NH

[Kembal]

Well, damn, I think we all called this wrong.

First, points to Ilvane and ClydeR for calling it right.

And second, this is going to be an interesting race now.

[Sean of the Thread]

Looks like her crocodile tears paid off.

[Ilvane]

Was an interesting night, for sure.:)

Angela

[Parkbandit]

I've said it from DAY ONE.. don't ever count out Hillary. That staged cry was brilliant and probably won the state.

[Parkbandit]

Well, damn, I think we all called this wrong.

First, points to Ilvane and ClydeR for calling it right.

And second, this is going to be an interesting race now.


My broken watch is correct twice a day... and still probably smarter than these two idiots combined.

Don't mistake blind and stupid loyalty with a special ability to select the winner.

[Khariz]

Who the fuck voted Bill Richardson above?

[ClydeR]

This one is fairly obvious, though it is a humorous juxtaposition to see the two people who voted for Clinton in this poll.

If everybody else was jumping off a bridge,....

[TheEschaton]

Wow. What. The. Fuck.

I am a Hillary supporter, I've even donated to her campaign. But I had totally counted her out last night, and I was outright shocked at what happened.

I still can't really comprehend how she went from being down by double digits, to winning by 3-4%.

-TheE-

[Gan]

Wow. What. The. Fuck.

I am a Hillary supporter, I've even donated to her campaign. But I had totally counted her out last night, and I was outright shocked at what happened.

I still can't really comprehend how she went from being down by double digits, to winning by 3-4%.

-TheE-

Yea, ask John Kerry about putting too much weight on projected polling numbers...

[Hulkein]

No Gan, that was just the vast right wing conspiracy stealing the election.

[Warriorbird]

There's cheating in every election...from both sides.

[Gan]

No Gan, that was just the vast right wing conspiracy stealing the election.

Thats right! First it was the CHADS! Then it was the miscounted ballotts, recounted ballotts, uncounted ballotts, double counted ballotts, WTFROFLBBQ!

[ClydeR]

I am a Hillary supporter, I've even donated to her campaign. But I had totally counted her out last night, and I was outright shocked at what happened.

I still can't really comprehend how she went from being down by double digits, to winning by 3-4%.

The Clintons control everything in the Democrat party. It should surprise no one that they were able to manipulate the ballot (http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Decision2008/story?id=4107883) to favor Hillary.

[Gan]

CONSPIRACY ALERT!!!

[Ilvane]

ROFL

From that article..

The randomly selected letter this year was Z. As a result, Joe Biden was first on every ballot, Hillary Clinton was near the top of the list (and the first serious contender listed) and Barack Obama was close to last of the 21 candidates listed. Thus, I'll bet that Clinton got at least 3 percent more votes than Obama simply because she was listed close to the top

hahaha..sorry.

[TheEschaton]

LOL, it sounds like the media is just trying to explain away why the fuck their polls were so off. This wasn't a swing of 3% from the polls, tihs was a swing of at least 13%, since people were predicting Obama to win by double digits.

-TheE-

[Warriorbird]

http://img.timeinc.net/time/daily/2008/0801/hillary_victory_0108.jpg

I see this picture and imagine the crowd going, "Satan, Satan..." in the Winnie the Pooh voice from this video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TErIFY0T9Ts

I need to not fall asleep again watching political talk television.

[875000]

I have not really had time to look into this, but one question that is worth asking about the pre-primary polls is whether they sampled likely voters or all voters.

If they just sampled likely voters, I could see things being off. The turn-out was well more than expected or usual, indicating that the sampling for likely voters was off.

[Stanley Burrell]

Dude people:

She fucking bandwagoned on the anti-Grand Theft Auto crowd.

Hillary Clinton is a fascist "Hot Coffee" mod flip-flopping Republican with a thrashing horny beaver.

Bandwagoned really isn't a word, even, so please don't vote for this self-imposed hypocrite toting her "liberal" agenda. It has nothing to do with the fact that she's a chick: She's just a damn charlatan and it makes me a sad Jew-panda.

[Latrinsorm]

I was upset with this bogus state for a while, but then I realized this is totally a win-win: either Democrats nationally will pick Obama and we'll have Obama as a President or they'll select Hillary and we'll have good ol' Huckabee or John "Do you feel lucky?" McCain as President. I'm pretty comfortable with all three of those choices, and it's not like Obama is going to be too old in 4 years.

[Gan]

I was upset with this bogus state for a while, but then I realized this is totally a win-win: either Democrats nationally will pick Obama and we'll have Obama as a President or they'll select Hillary and we'll have good ol' Huckabee or John "Do you feel lucky?" McCain as President. I'm pretty comfortable with all three of those choices, and it's not like Obama is going to be too old in 4 years.

That made me LOL.

[Tsa`ah]

I have not really had time to look into this, but one question that is worth asking about the pre-primary polls is whether they sampled likely voters or all voters.

If they just sampled likely voters, I could see things being off. The turn-out was well more than expected or usual, indicating that the sampling for likely voters was off.

That's just the thing.

After IA and the turn out of Obama's demographic, almost every polling firm looked at their previous polling samples and broadened the spectrum for a more "accurate" result.

[Gan]

Hillary Clinton is preparing to ride a wave of support from women into the next stage of her contest with Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination.

Her extraordinary and unexpected comeback in the New Hampshire Democratic primary was driven by women voters in record numbers. They largely shunned her in Iowa last week but came flooding back on Tuesday to make her the first woman to win a presidential primary. Yesterday she claimed to have “liberated” women politicians, after a campaign in which she revealed a previously unseen passion and personal empathy.

More primary voters turned out in the Granite State than ever before, as a clear gender gap opened up with 57 per cent of voters in the Democratic primary being women. Of these, 46 per cent backed Mrs Clinton compared with just 34 per cent for Mr Obama. Among female voters aged 40 or more, she won 70 per cent support.

Mrs Clinton played down claims that her tearful appearance in a Portsmouth coffee shop on Monday had been the catalyst for the turnaround in a contest that Mr Obama had expected to win easily. Instead, aides said that a more personal and open approach had allowed voters to see the “real Hillary Clinton”.

But there is little doubt that she has used her gender to counter Mr Obama’s message of change, pointing out in recent days that electing a woman president would represent a symbolic transformation of US politics. In a TV interview yesterday Mrs Clinton said it was difficult for female politicians to show emotions. “Obviously we know what people will say, but maybe I have liberated us to actually let women be human beings in public life.”

As the campaign heads on to the next battlegrounds of Nevada and South Carolina, the issue of race may loom for the first time. Mr Obama has turned his ethnic and cultural background into a rallying point for healing divisions that have long scarred American society. He may, however, face resistance from Hispanic voters in Nevada on January 19, many of whom – according to one Clinton confidant – remain implacably hostile to African-Americans.

Some commentators suggested that Mr Obama’s New Hampshire defeat, despite opinion polls giving him a huge lead, may have been a consequence of the “Bradley effect”. Tom Bradley, a black Democratic candidate for the California governorship in 1982, was ahead in polls only to suffer a surprise upset. Political scientists suggested that some voters chose a white candidate after saying they would vote for a black one.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article3160314.ece

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00264/Hillary385_264433a.jpg

[Latrinsorm]

But there is little doubt that she has used her gender to counter Mr Obama’s message of change, pointing out in recent days that electing a woman president would represent a symbolic transformation of US politics.This reminds me of Rachel Weisz' acceptance speech for her Oscar in the Constant Gardener (a movie about how it's wrong to murder children [even Africans!] for profit). She remarked upon how brave the studio was to make such a movie...

...failing to mention the studio that had made Brokeback Mountain (which I assume everyone is familiar with).

[ClydeR]

Karl Rove, whose political genius is trusted perhaps more than that of any other person alive, explained (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119992615845679531.html) why Hillary won in NH. Just the highlights from his article.

"First, her campaign made a smart decision at its start to target women Democrats, especially single women. It has been made part of the warp and woof of her campaign everywhere."

[Note to self - start using "warp and woof (http://www.bartleby.com/59/4/warpandwoof.html)" in conversation to sound as smart as Karl Rove.]

"Second, she had two powerful personal moments. The first came in the ABC debate on Saturday, when WMUR TV's Scott Spradling asked why voters were 'hesitating on the likeability issue, where they seem to like Barack Obama more.' Mrs. Clinton's self-deprecating response -- Well, that hurts my feelings' . . . . The other personal moment came on Monday, when a woman in Portsmouth asked her 'how do you do it?' Mrs. Clinton's emotional reply was powerful and warm."

"Third, the Clintons began -- at first not very artfully -- to raise questions about the fitness for the Oval Office of a first-term senator with no real accomplishments or experience."

"The fourth and biggest reason why Mrs. Clinton won two nights ago is that, while Mr. Obama can draw on the deep doubts of many Democrats about Mrs. Clinton, he can't close out the argument. Mr. Obama is an inspiring figure playing a historical role, but that's not enough to push aside the former First Lady and senator from New York. She's an historic figure, too. When it comes to making the case against Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Obama comes across as a vitamin-starved Adlai Stevenson. His rhetoric, while eloquent and moving at times, has been too often light as air."

There you have it. The definitive answer to the New Hampshire riddle.

[Tsa`ah]

Yesterday she claimed to have “liberated” women politicians, after a campaign in which she revealed a previously unseen passion and personal empathy.


“Obviously we know what people will say, but maybe I have liberated us to actually let women be human beings in public life.”

Umm ... just ... wow.

She's placing herself at the head of the liberation table and treading on the corpses of greater women to do so.

So I guess screw Victoria Claflin Woodhull, Belva Ann Lockwood, Susanna Medora Salter, Jeannette Rankin, Hattie Wyatt Caraway, Frances Perkins, Oveta Culp Hobby, Margaret Chase Smith, Shirley Chisholm, Sandra Day O'Connor, and Geraldine Ferraro ... Hillary is THE fucking icon for women's lib.

[Stanley Burrell]

If I was, like, ParkBandit old, I'd probably get aroused watching her duke it out with Ann Coulter.

Or vomit. I can't decide which.

[TheEschaton]

Karl Rove, whose political genius is trusted perhaps more than that of any other person alive,

I swear, ClydeR, keep this up, and I think I'm gonna die from asphyxiation due to laughter.