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Gan
11-20-2007, 07:47 AM
BAGHDAD, Nov. 19 — Five months ago, Suhaila al-Aasan lived in an oxygen tank factory with her husband and two sons, convinced that they would never go back to their apartment in Dora, a middle-class neighborhood in southern Baghdad.

Today she is home again, cooking by a sunlit window, sleeping beneath her favorite wedding picture. And yet, she and her family are remarkably alone. The half-dozen other apartments in her building echo with emptiness and, on most days, Iraqi soldiers are the only neighbors she sees.

“I feel happy,” she said, standing in her bedroom, between a flowered bedspread and a bullet hole in the wall. “But my happiness is not complete. We need more people to come back. We need more people to feel safe.”

Mrs. Aasan, 45, a Shiite librarian with an easy laugh, is living at the far end of Baghdad’s tentative recovery. She is one of many Iraqis who in recent weeks have begun to test where they can go and what they can do when fear no longer controls their every move.

The security improvements in most neighborhoods are real. Days now pass without a car bomb, after a high of 44 in the city in February. The number of bodies appearing on Baghdad’s streets has plummeted to about 5 a day, from as many as 35 eight months ago, and suicide bombings across Iraq (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/iraq/index.html?inline=nyt-geo) fell to 16 in October, half the number of last summer and down sharply from a recent peak of 59 in March, the American military says.

As a result, for the first time in nearly two years, people are moving with freedom around much of this city. In more than 50 interviews across Baghdad, it became clear that while there were still no-go zones, more Iraqis now drive between Sunni and Shiite areas for work, shopping or school, a few even after dark. In the most stable neighborhoods of Baghdad, some secular women are also dressing as they wish. Wedding bands are playing in public again, and at a handful of once shuttered liquor stores customers now line up outside in a collective rebuke to religious vigilantes from the Shiite Mahdi Army.

Iraqis are clearly surprised and relieved to see commerce and movement finally increase, five months after an extra 30,000 American troops arrived in the country. But the depth and sustainability of the changes remain open to question.

By one revealing measure of security — whether people who fled their home have returned — the gains are still limited. About 20,000 Iraqis have gone back to their Baghdad homes, a fraction of the more than 4 million who fled nationwide, and the 1.4 million people in Baghdad who are still internally displaced, according to a recent Iraqi Red Crescent Society survey.

Iraqis sound uncertain about the future, but defiantly optimistic. Many Baghdad residents seem to be willing themselves to normalcy, ignoring risks and suppressing fears to reclaim their lives. Pushing past boundaries of sect and neighborhood, they said they were often pleasantly surprised and kept going; in other instances, traumatic memories or a dark look from a stranger were enough to tug them back behind closed doors.

Mrs. Aasan’s experience, as a member of the brave minority of Iraqis who have returned home, shows both the extent of the improvements and their limits.

She works at an oasis of calm: a small library in eastern Baghdad, where on several recent afternoons, about a dozen children bounced through the rooms, reading, laughing, learning English and playing music on a Yamaha keyboard.

Brightly colored artwork hangs on the walls: images of gardens, green and lush; Iraqi soldiers smiling; and Arabs holding hands with Kurds.
It is all deliberately idyllic. Mrs. Aasan and the other two women at the library have banned violent images, guiding the children toward portraits of hope. The children are also not allowed to discuss the violence they have witnessed.

“Our aim is to fight terrorism,” Mrs. Aasan said. “We want them to overcome their personal experiences.”

The library closed last year because parents would not let their children out of sight. Now, most of the children walk on their own from homes nearby — another sign of the city’s improved ease of movement.

But there are scars in the voice of a ponytailed little girl who said she had less time for fun since her father was incapacitated by a bomb. (“We try to make him feel better and feel less pain,” she said.) And pain still lingers in the silence of Mrs. Aasan’s 10-year-old son, Abather, who accompanies her wherever she goes.

One day five months ago, when they still lived in Dora, Mrs. Aasan sent Abather to get water from a tank below their apartment. Delaying as boys will do, he followed his soccer ball into the street, where he discovered two dead bodies with their eyeballs torn out. It was not the first corpse he had seen, but for Mrs. Aasan that was enough. “I grabbed him, we got in the car and we drove away,” she said.

After they heard on an Iraqi news program that her section of Dora had improved, she and her husband explored a potential return. They visited and found little damage, except for a bullet hole in their microwave.
Two weeks ago, they moved back to the neighborhood where they had lived since 2003.

“It’s just a rental,” Mrs. Aasan said, as if embarrassed at her connection to such a humble place. “But after all, it’s home.”

In interviews, she and her husband said they felt emboldened by the decline in violence citywide and the visible presence of Iraqi soldiers at a checkpoint a few blocks away.

Still, it was a brave decision, one her immediate neighbors have not yet felt bold enough to make. Mrs. Aasan’s portion of Dora still looks as desolate as a condemned tenement. The trunk of a palm tree covers a section of road where Sunni gunmen once dumped a severed head, and about 200 yards to the right of her building concrete Jersey barriers block a section of homes believed to be booby-trapped with explosives.

“On this street,” she said, standing on her balcony, “many of my neighbors lost relatives.” Then she rushed inside.

Her husband, Fadhel A. Yassen, 49, explained that they had seen several friends killed while they sat outside in the past. He insisted that being back in the apartment was “a victory over fear, a victory over terrorism.”

Yet the achievement remains rare. Many Iraqis say they would still rather leave the country than go home. In Baghdad there are far more families like the Nidhals. The father, who would only identify himself as Abu Nebras (father of Nebras), is Sunni; Hanan, his wife, is a Shiite from Najaf, the center of Shiite religious learning in Iraq. They lived for 17 years in Ghazaliya in western Baghdad until four gunmen from Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/a/al_qaeda_in_mesopotamia/index.html?inline=nyt-org), the homegrown Sunni extremist group that American intelligence agencies say is led by foreigners, showed up at his door last December.

“My sons were armed and they went away but after that, we knew we had only a few hours,” Abu Nebras said. “We were displaced because I was secular and Al Qaeda (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/a/al_qaeda/index.html?inline=nyt-org) didn’t like that.”

They took refuge in the middle-class Palestine (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/p/palestinians/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier) Street area in the northeastern part of Baghdad, a relatively stable enclave with an atmosphere of tolerance for their mixed marriage. Now with the situation improving across the city, the Nidhal family longs to return to their former home, but they have no idea when, or if, it will be possible.

Another family now lives in their house — the situation faced by about a third of all displaced Iraqis, according to the International Organization for Migration — and it is not clear whether the fragile peace will last. Abu Nebras tested the waters recently, going back to talk with neighbors on his old street for the first time.

He said the Shiites in the northern part of Ghazaliya had told him that the American military’s payments to local Sunni volunteers in the southern, Sunni part of the neighborhood amounted to arming one side.

The Americans describe the volunteers as heroes, part of a larger nationwide campaign known as the Sunni Awakening. But Abu Nebras said he did not trust them. “Some of the Awakening members are just Al Qaeda who have joined them,” he said. “I know them from before.”

With the additional American troops scheduled to depart, the Nidhal family said, Baghdad would be truly safe only when the Iraqi forces were mixed with Sunnis and Shiites operating checkpoints side by side — otherwise the city would remain a patchwork of Sunni and Shiite enclaves. “The police, the army, it has to be Sunni next to Shiite next to Sunni next to Shiite,” Abu Nebras said.

They and other Iraqis also said the government must aggressively help people return to their homes, perhaps by supervising returns block by block. The Nidhal family said they feared the displaced Sunnis in their neighborhood who were furious that Shiites chased them from their houses. “They are so angry, they will kill anyone,” Abu Nebras said.

For now, though, they are trying to enjoy what may be only a temporary respite from violence. One of their sons recently returned to his veterinary studies at a university in Baghdad, and their daughter will start college this winter.

Laughter is also more common now in the Nidhal household — even on once upsetting subjects. At midday, Hanan’s sister, who teaches in a local high school, came home and threw up her hands in exasperation. She had asked her Islamic studies class to bring in something that showed an aspect of Islamic culture. “Two boys told me, ‘I’m going to bring in a portrait of Moktada al-Sadr (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/moktada_al_sadr/index.html?inline=nyt-per),’” she said.

She shook her head and chuckled. Mr. Sadr is an anti-American cleric whose militia, the Mahdi Army, has been accused of carrying out much of the displacement and killings of Sunnis in Baghdad. They can joke because they no longer fear that the violence will engulf them.

In longer interviews across Baghdad, the pattern was repeated. Iraqis acknowledged how far their country still needed to go before a return to normalcy, but they also expressed amazement at even the most embryonic signs of recovery.

Mrs. Aasan said she was thrilled and relieved just a few days ago, when her college-aged son got stuck at work after dark and his father managed to pick him up and drive home without being killed.

“Before, when we lived in Dora, after 4 p.m., I wouldn’t let anyone out of the house,” she said.

“They drove back to Dora at 8!” she added, glancing at her husband, who beamed, chest out, like a mountaineer who had scaled Mount Everest. “We really felt that it was a big difference.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/20/world/middleeast/20surge.html?ei=5065&en=7e7d43064c067b63&ex=1196226000&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print
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Good story.

Suppa Hobbit Mage
11-20-2007, 08:47 AM
That's cool, still kind of living in a nightmare though. Imagine, JUST 5 bodies a day show up in the streets...

Hulkein
11-20-2007, 04:08 PM
That's cool, still kind of living in a nightmare though. Imagine, JUST 5 bodies a day show up in the streets...

Sounds like Philadelphia.

sst
11-20-2007, 07:59 PM
That gives me a bit of a warm fuzzy, We spent a lot of time down in Dora working with 4th ID and 2-12 ( about 4 months total of our time in baghdad)

Seran
11-20-2007, 10:02 PM
I'm quite happy for this woman. Imagine, a whole five days without a car bombing.

ElanthianSiren
11-20-2007, 10:07 PM
It's a good step though and hopefully a quasi peace that the Iraqi military will manage to uphold. I believe Kiladelphia is 1 body a day btw.

Hulkein
11-20-2007, 10:33 PM
I believe Kiladelphia is 1 body a day btw.

Yeah, 1.1 in 2006. That's with 1.5 million residents. Baghdad has ~7 million residents. Roughly 4.6 times larger. 1.1 x 4.6 = 5.06.

I'm actually surprised it's that close to 5, I did this math not knowing that I'd actually corroborate myself since I said what I did originally half joking. What a joke for Philly.

ElanthianSiren
11-20-2007, 10:38 PM
holy...crap. I see the sign whenever I take the Rail, but reducing it to that kind of figure is sickening and shocking all at once. :(

Warriorbird
11-20-2007, 11:02 PM
Jesus...I guess Freeway's Baghdad comparisons are now no longer so much hyperbole.

sst
11-20-2007, 11:50 PM
I'm just happy that the Iraq's are starting to stand up and take their safety into their own hands. I also want to point out that the biggest turnarounds down in Dora are in the areas where the "Safe Neighborhood" system was put into place (IE completely surrounding the muhalla with T-Walls) and controlling access in and out. The violence in the most dangerous areas there dropped drastically after we finished those up and got the IA/IP setup in defensive positions and they were capable of patrolling.

Gan
11-21-2007, 09:04 AM
So is this attributable to the troop surge?

Sean of the Thread
11-21-2007, 09:09 AM
So is this attributable to the troop surge?

Certainly some measure of it must be.

Goretawn
11-21-2007, 09:18 AM
So is this attributable to the troop surge?

I think it may have kick-started it. The real test is when we start to pull those 30k out again. If the violence escalates again, we may have to put them back in. I can hear it now. All the people in congress that bitched about putting them in are going to bitch about pulling them back out, if the violence increases. If it does not increase, then they will claim that they were right not to put them in in the first place and all of it would have happened without the increase of troops.

Gan
11-21-2007, 09:51 AM
I'm quite happy for this woman. Imagine, a whole five days without a car bombing.

In the middle east, thats a great thing to imagine. In the US, its something totally different. Thanks for the flaming liberal spin though.

:lol:

Daniel
11-21-2007, 10:01 AM
In the middle east, thats a great thing to imagine. In the US, its something totally different. Thanks for the flaming liberal spin though.

:lol:

Care to take a stab at what other city in the Middle East is the same as Baghdad in this regard?

Latrinsorm
11-21-2007, 10:33 AM
What a joke for Philly.It's almost unfathomably bad, although I guess to be totally fair we would have to have the armed forces occupy Philadelphia and see how the numbers changed. I'm not sure if that makes Philadelphia's position sound better or worse though. :\

ElanthianSiren
11-21-2007, 11:11 AM
The real test is when we start to pull those 30k out again. If the violence escalates again, we may have to put them back in.

IMO a nation can't be won to peace by violent measures, including watchdog like ones. That's tenuous peace, and it'll be gone as soon as we drawdown, unless it's backed by some serious reconstructive measures that force the people of the country to take back their country. I can hear now the cry from the conservatives in Congress, but like the Liberals (again IMO), they need to realize that we're there now, so you have to do the whole job.

Celephais
11-21-2007, 11:14 AM
IMO a nation can't be won to peace by violent measures.
This is probably one of the dumbest things I have read in some time.

Name one peaceful nation that wasn't established violently... oh wait, all nations have been established violenty.

Parkbandit
11-21-2007, 11:15 AM
This is nothing but bad news for the party who put all their eggs in the Defeat in Iraq basket.

:cry:

Parkbandit
11-21-2007, 11:17 AM
This is probably one of the dumbest things I have read in some time.

Name one peaceful nation that wasn't established violently... oh wait, all nations have been established violenty.


:rofl:

/agree

edited - there is no :lmao: pic.. and I didn't want WB thinking I am trying to forum roleplay with him.

ElanthianSiren
11-21-2007, 11:19 AM
It's almost unfathomably bad, although I guess to be totally fair we would have to have the armed forces occupy Philadelphia and see how the numbers changed. I'm not sure if that makes Philadelphia's position sound better or worse though. :\

It's disappointing because Philly has so much to offer. It has some of the best schools in the country, like the new pharm/neurology program at Jeff or Philadelphia College of Pharmacy and research, for instance. The violent crime rate is just crazy though.

Daniel
11-21-2007, 11:22 AM
This is probably one of the dumbest things I have read in some time.

Name one peaceful nation that wasn't established violently... oh wait, all nations have been established violenty.

The nation has already been established, by violence. So your point is without relevance.

I challenge you to name one nation that has maintained itself without internal cohesion and support of the populace. Things that can, for a time, be maintained by violence but are more often only achieved longterm through people being happy with what the nation provides and represents.

Celephais
11-21-2007, 11:30 AM
The nation has already been established, by violence. So your point is without relevance.

I challenge you to name one nation that has maintained itself without internal cohesion and support of the populace. Things that can, for a time, be maintained by violence but are more often only achieved longterm through people being happy with what the nation provides and represents.
You're certainly good at missing the point. This "established" nation, was it peaceful? Nope. It may have been stable, but it wasn't peaceful, didn't have cohesion and support of the plebs. Violence is the tool of change... so we changed things with violence and now slowly have to ratchet it down to let peaceful order settle in.

Saying nothing peacful can come from violence is just ignorant.

Daniel
11-21-2007, 11:38 AM
Except that's not what she said.

ElanthianSiren
11-21-2007, 11:41 AM
Name one peaceful nation that wasn't established violently... oh wait, all nations have been established violenty.

Granted, the step I referred to is after initial fighting and takes extensive time, but I figured intelligent people would grasp that concept by the end of my post regarding congress. The point was, this stage of the war won't be won with brute force alone. Get ready to pay for the building of another nation.

I suppose I could ask you to name a successful peaceful nation that hasn't flourished without extensive works programs, but that would be just as silly as taking my quote the way you did. Bravo, I guess?

Celephais
11-21-2007, 11:49 AM
IMO a nation can't be won to peace by violent measures, including watchdog like ones.
You're aware that saying "but it can be won to peace by violent followed by peaceful measures" includes "violent measures".

Sean of the Thread
11-21-2007, 11:52 AM
wow

DeV
11-21-2007, 12:01 PM
You're aware that saying "but it can be won to peace by violent followed by peaceful measures" includes "violent measures".
She pretty much insinuated that it can't be won by violent measures ALONE. She even elaborated her point directly after.

Celephais
11-21-2007, 12:16 PM
She pretty much insinuated that it can't be won by violent measures ALONE. She even elaborated her point directly after.
That's fine, I didn't call the rest of her post stupid, the rest of her post was fine, it's the fact that she started it with something absolutely wrong.

She started it saying "you can't do it like this" and then said "but you can do it like that if you do this too". I probably shouldn't have jumped on the semantics of it, but as a sentence I've heard before in various forms, it's a rather dumb one that I didn't feel like leaving alone.

Daniel
11-21-2007, 12:23 PM
That's fine, I didn't call the rest of her post stupid, the rest of her post was fine, it's the fact that she started it with something absolutely wrong.

She started it saying "you can't do it like this" and then said "but you can do it like that if you do this too". I probably shouldn't have jumped on the semantics of it, but as a sentence I've heard before in various forms, it's a rather dumb one that I didn't feel like leaving alone.

An even dumber sentence is that you can maintain a nation through violene alone.

Celephais
11-21-2007, 12:37 PM
An even dumber sentence is that you can maintain a nation through violene alone.
Thankfully no one said that.

Daniel
11-21-2007, 12:59 PM
Well, that's not exactly true in the grander sense.

ElanthianSiren
11-21-2007, 12:59 PM
Thankfully no one said that.

So you're saying that in a discussion about the current conditions in Iraq, (those conditions being post invasion, toward reconstruction), it never crossed your mind that the post in question might pertain to the situation of post invasion looking for reconstruction? Alternately, I'll accept that you didn't read the entire post in context of Iraq, which we're discussing, and simply jumped all over the first sentence, as you've admitted.

Or are you just trying to be a pain in the ass for the sake of doing so? Please let me know, so I can afford your ideas the same level of regard/respect etc I give other trolls here. Thanks.

Nieninque
11-21-2007, 01:18 PM
So is this attributable to the troop surge?

There was some woman on the radio on the way home that said the majority of people returning are because of the fact that their visas are running out and they couldnt get them renewed, or because they were running out of savings.

She said around 14% of her survey (she acknowledged that it was a small survey of returners) cited improved safety as a reason for returning.

I should be on the BBC website if you are interested in sources. I'm not that bothered, just thought it was interesting.

Gan
11-21-2007, 01:23 PM
There was some woman on the radio on the way home that said the majority of people returning are because of the fact that their visas are running out and they couldnt get them renewed, or because they were running out of savings.

She said around 14% of her survey (she acknowledged that it was a small survey of returners) cited improved safety as a reason for returning.

I should be on the BBC website if you are interested in sources. I'm not that bothered, just thought it was interesting.

Excellent add. Thx. :)

ElanthianSiren
11-21-2007, 01:36 PM
found a better, newer article, touching some on what Nien was saying but also a reason why areas of Iraq remain settled, despite the bullet discussion in the OP. This is from US News and World Report.


Closing the Door to Iraqis
By Kevin Whitelaw
Posted October 19, 2007


For the past few years, Syria has been a vital refuge for Iraqis fleeing across the border, whether to escape targeted death threats or broader sectarian violence. But among the nearly 1.5 million Iraqi refugees estimated to be living in Syria, there is growing alarm that the Syrian government may be preparing to deport many of them back to Iraq.

On October 1, Syria effectively closed its border to new refugees, imposing stringent visa requirements that have cut off the flow of Iraqis almost completely. The move also stranded some family members on the wrong side of the border. Iman is a 45-year-old Iraqi woman currently living in Syria with her son, but her husband remains in Iraq to collect his pension. "If I go back to see my husband, that means I can't come back to see my son," she says, adding that the situation "leaves me to choose between being a mother or a wife." Even worse, rumors are circulating among Iraqis in Syria that police in Damascus have begun spot checks of visas (which can be renewed only by leaving the country).

Promises. The Syrian government has told United Nations officials that it will not deport Iraqis who are already in Syria. But this has done little to reassure Iraqi refugees. "Iraqis are right to fear that the worst has not happened," says Kristele Younes, a Lebanon-based advocate for Refugees International, a nonprofit group. "If the government changes its mind tomorrow, there is nobody to protect them."

For Syria, the influx has put an intense strain on a government that was already struggling to deliver key services. In the Damascus neighborhoods where many Iraqis have settled, there are serious shortages of safe drinking water and electricity, prompting warnings about epidemics. And Syria has received little help from other countries, particularly the United States, which has accused Syria of backing Iraqi insurgents.

The closure of the Syrian border also means that Iraqis who remain in their country no longer have an escape route. "There are no borders open to them," says Younes. "So many more people would like to leave but can't because they have nowhere to go."

With Amer Saleh in Syria

Gan
11-21-2007, 02:01 PM
Interesting articles which do explain some of why people are repopulating areas of Baghdad; however, I think the focus of the article is more on the fact that the violence of the areas mentioned is substantially less thus allowing and in some cases even encouraging those who want to move back to do so.

So in the big picture I can definately understand that with the treatment of Iraqui refugees changing from welcome to un-welcome it will impact the frequency of returning population groups, I think the fact that the violence is abating is a more crucial step in keeping the people safe and staying there thats the key. Thats why I thought this was a good article.

Celephais
11-21-2007, 02:09 PM
Alternately, I'll accept that you didn't read the entire post in context of Iraq, which we're discussing, and simply jumped all over the first sentence, as you've admitted.
I did jump all over the first sentence, but I did read the rest of it, I just was pointing out how dumb the first sentence was... despite refuting it afterwards.

Didn't mean for it to be a big deal or to start a flame though. Sorry about that.

ElanthianSiren
11-21-2007, 03:10 PM
Interesting articles which do explain some of why people are repopulating areas of Baghdad; however, I think the focus of the article is more on the fact that the violence of the areas mentioned is substantially less thus allowing and in some cases even encouraging those who want to move back to do so.

So in the big picture I can definately understand that with the treatment of Iraqui refugees changing from welcome to un-welcome it will impact the frequency of returning population groups, I think the fact that the violence is abating is a more crucial step in keeping the people safe and staying there thats the key. Thats why I thought this was a good article.


IMO it's probably a bit of both. I doubt a huge amount of civilians wanted to leave behind their homeland/culture as much as I doubt a huge amount actively want to go back presently. However, I believe them returning to be a positive step also; in that we agree. If large groups of civilians never do, conditions will never normalize to a productive level IMO, so we'd be looking at a vicious circle. It doesn't mean my conscience is clear about the number of innocent people who will die and have died.

I also believe, as I pointed in my first post, that we're going to see an insane amount go toward reconstruction, and everyone will cry butthurt about it. People were duped when Wolfowitz said Iraq would pay for its own reconstruction in march of 03; IMO, that just isn't realistic and never was when talking about a country that was under crippling sanctions for over a decade. But since recent Congress can't seem to pull their heads out of their asses enough to authorize a budget around Iraq, I have a feeling that we'll be waiting even longer to see extensive reconstruction (and thus move toward a new Iraq "phase"). My money is on 2008, so it won't be tied directly to the amount this administration has already invested there. There are pros for this strategy for both political bases.



I did jump all over the first sentence, but I did read the rest of it, I just was pointing out how dumb the first sentence was... despite refuting it afterwards.

Didn't mean for it to be a big deal or to start a flame though. Sorry about that.

It's cool. I should have clarified more to make sure it was 100% impenetrable with a forward-reaching clause like ultimately. That would have left no room for doubt.