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View Full Version : The Primaries: A bygone tradition or a stranglehold on the election?



Gan
11-14-2007, 11:32 PM
(CNN) -- The nation's two political parties have done a pretty good job over the years of keeping voters in line by deciding the order in which states will vote on their presidential candidates.

But that respect for tradition -- Iowa and New Hampshire have always been first in line -- has gone out the window, and the Republican and Democratic national committees have struggled to keep order.

Folks, this cat is out of the bag, and it's never going to be the same again. And frankly, it shouldn't.

I've listened to many of the pundits this election season remark that if Sen. John McCain (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/john.mccain.html) doesn't win New Hampshire, his candidacy is toast. Former Sen. John Edwards (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/john.edwards.html) has put a lot of the emphasis on Iowa, and the prognosticators say that if he doesn't bag the state, he might as well hang 'em up. Michelle Obama has said on the campaign trail in Iowa that if her husband doesn't win that state, the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/barack.obama.html) is also toast.

But former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/rudy.giuliani.html) is attempting to defy conventional wisdom by ignoring the early states and focusing on delegate-rich states such as New York and California.

As a result, we've seen many states jockey for position by moving up their primaries. Michigan, Florida and others have seen their state officials change the law to force their primaries to the top of the election calendar so that they might have a greater say in who is president.

These moves have led both parties to threaten to strip the rogue states of delegates to the national conventions.

While these changes have created a huge mess for the campaigns -- they are not sure exactly when the voting will take place -- I must admit that I'm on the side of the states. It is grossly unfair for the first four states -- Iowa (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/iowa.html), New Hampshire (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/new.hampshire.html), Nevada (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/nevada.html) and South Carolina (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/south.carolina.html) -- to pretty much decide the presidency. But in all honesty, it boils down to the first two.

If a candidate doesn't do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, the media attention turns away from them, and then the political dollars dry up, and the packing begins.

Yet this is no way to choose a president. Fine, I know all about that tradition crap, but honestly, no one should have such a stranglehold on the process. Of course, the hard part is coming up with a plan to which everyone will agree.

Instead of having one primary or caucus one week and another the next, why can't five states vote each week during January? That means by the end of the month, we will have nearly half of the states make their choice for president, and we can have a much better idea what the will of the American people is. That will no doubt cause the campaigns to raise more money to run a national campaign, but hey, you've got to have a trade-off.

The folks in New Hampshire won't be happy because their constitution calls for them to be the first state in the nation to hold a presidential primary. I'm still trying to figure out how in the world one state believes it can usurp every other state and the political parties go along with this nonsense.

Iowa and New Hampshire residents want to keep saying it's about tradition. I think it's about money. The TV stations, newspapers, hotels, restaurants, sign companies and other businesses make a ton of dough off these candidates, and they don't want that cash cow to feed others.

Unless the political parties come up with a solution that incorporates more states, and get away from this exclusivity, the other states will get even more aggressive, and we will potentially have every state trying to hold its primary the first week of January.

Americans want fairness, and there is nothing fair about less than 10 percent of the states in America choosing the next president for the rest of us.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/11/14/roland.martin/index.html
__________________________________________________ ___

Switching gears a moment to discuss the process rather than the candidates.

I really liked this article as it asks some needed questions about the primaries, points out how this election has thrown tradition to the wind and created some valid questions about how the first primaries can effect the viability of those candidates running for the presidential election.

One factoid pointed out was the constitutional requirement for the state of New Hampshire to be the very first primary in each presidential election. Since when does a state constitution have that kind of power over a federal process? I have to throw up a :wtf: for this one.

All in all I thought it was a good article and representative of my thoughts on the whole primary system.

TheEschaton
11-15-2007, 08:46 AM
I think the article makes sense. It seems absurd that such small populations of the country make or break a candidate.

-TheE-

Hulkein
11-15-2007, 09:16 AM
Why can't every state hold the primary elections on the same day?

Clove
11-15-2007, 09:24 AM
Why can't every state hold the primary elections on the same day?


Why indeed. It's more a question of why won't every state.

Gan
11-15-2007, 09:52 AM
Some states dont even have primaries.

The people need to be able to vote whom they want, then the candidate who receives the majority vote wins (greater than 2/3 of all votes). If no clear 2/3 winner then have a runoff of the top 2 or 3. Keep narrowing it down until there's just two, then the majority wins.

Wait, I just abolished the electoral college with that didnt I? ;)

Latrinsorm
11-15-2007, 11:02 AM
There's nothing wrong with the primary system. The problem is, and I quote: "If a candidate doesn't do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, the media attention turns away from them, and then the political dollars dry up, and the packing begins."

Address the root cause, and the symptoms will dissipate.

Celephais
11-15-2007, 11:10 AM
I agree that ordering the primaries is stupid, have them all done on the same day at the same time.

Kranar
11-15-2007, 11:11 AM
Is there an actual reason why states don't all hold their primaries on the same day? I think that makes the most sense.

Kranar
11-15-2007, 11:19 AM
There's nothing wrong with the primary system. The problem is, and I quote: "If a candidate doesn't do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, the media attention turns away from them, and then the political dollars dry up, and the packing begins."

Address the root cause, and the symptoms will dissipate.

Of course the fallacy here is that the media attention and drying up of political dollars is a SYMPTOM of a rather absurd primary system.

Address the root cause, that being the primary system being held on different days, and the symptoms will disappear.

Tsa`ah
11-15-2007, 11:23 AM
Is there an actual reason why states don't all hold their primaries on the same day? I think that makes the most sense.

Nothing more than outdated tradition left over from a time where mail was delivered on horseback.

That has rolled over into an opportunity for any party to tailor their campaigns to an individual state rather than the entire nation in which they're petitioning a job from.

Neither party wants every state to vote on the same day ... they want this drawn out process to continue.

Latrinsorm
11-15-2007, 11:23 AM
The primary system doesn't put any weight on New Hampshire, only the public eye. Wesley Clark received more delegates in Arizona than Kerry did in NH.

Tsa`ah
11-15-2007, 11:24 AM
Kerry is a poor example of NH and a great example of Iowa. You sort of shoot your argument in the foot with that one.

Latrinsorm
11-15-2007, 11:46 AM
What "argument"? The primary system doesn't offer delegates based on Hampshireness; this is a fact. The primary system offers delegates based on, and I quote, "A base of 3,000 delegate votes is distributed among the 50 states and the District of Columbia according to a formula giving equal weight to the sum of the vote for the Democratic candidates in the three (3) most recent presidential elections and to population by electoral vote."; this is also a fact.

Tsa`ah
11-15-2007, 11:54 AM
You have just lost track of the discussion.

Latrinsorm
11-15-2007, 11:57 AM
I'm not sure which discussion you're having, but it's pretty clear what I've been talking about.

Tsa`ah
11-15-2007, 12:22 PM
What "argument"?

This one ...


The primary system doesn't put any weight on New Hampshire, only the public eye. Wesley Clark received more delegates in Arizona than Kerry did in NH.


The primary system doesn't offer delegates based on Hampshireness; this is a fact.

A fact that is completely irrelevant to the system. You're using an "fact" as a means of supporting your statement.

Water is a liquid at room temperatures ... so all things must be liquid.

The point of the article is that there are key states in which the outcome of said primaries dictate which candidates the rest of the nation can vote for in the presidential election.

You asserted that NH didn't put any weight on the primaries (based on delegate numbers), and used Kerry as an example. It was a poor choice in examples since another key state (Iowa) turned his entire campaign around. The number of delegates is irrelevant in regard to the primaries in general. Candidates currently weigh their probability on how they place, and very few are saying "If I win", they're saying "If I have a strong showing".

The primaries are more about generating contributions and media showing than the number of delegates. As the article pointed out, failure in a few of the listed states pretty ends a campaign. This has zip to do with delegates.

Consider the amount of cash required for individual campaigns based on each individual state that has a primary or caucus. The overall savings of having one national campaign.

It's a redundant system that amounts to who looks best in the media and who can raise the most cash for the party. Delegates will vote in the manner the party dictates ... which is ..

1. Cash
2. Popularity

Latrinsorm
11-15-2007, 12:30 PM
What's fairly hilarious about this is that you're agreeing with me but you can't look far enough past your biases to see it.

TheEschaton
11-15-2007, 02:19 PM
But the question is about the furor the media makes about it. I know by the time the NY primary rolls around there's no point in voting for anyone but perhaps 2 people, usually only 1.

-TheE-

Kembal
11-15-2007, 04:40 PM
The process does need to be drawn out a little bit. A national primary day would automatically favor everyone with Name ID. In this case, you'd see Clinton vs. probably Giuliani.

Iowa and New Hampshire do bring two things to the table: Iowa, with its caucus system, makes a very important test of each campaign's field organization skills, necessary to think about electability. New Hampshire, with its rules allowing Independents to vote in a party's primary, allows one to determine general electablity as well.

At the same time, this front loading is damned ridiculous. A rotating primary/caucus system, with a group of 5-8 states having their primary election from Jan. - June, would make it better. No state is of utmost importance. And someone can still catch fire in a later month. Still allows some retail politicking as well, in the smaller states.

Stanley Burrell
11-15-2007, 04:47 PM
How exactly, if it were to ever pass as legislation, could the electoral collage be eradicated? Do we even have a system of law in place to counter its ass-backwardness to the point where it could be properly disposed of?

It seems like its an unbreakable tradition more than just unpopular opinion concerning its existence.

Stanley Burrell
11-15-2007, 04:52 PM
I seriously wonder how well-safeguarded some of our archaic bureaucracies are, albeit through over-legislation or a lack thereof in tackling their (stupid doctrines) existence. How does legal banter even begin to approach its termination?

Seran
11-15-2007, 09:06 PM
At the same time, this front loading is damned ridiculous. A rotating primary/caucus system, with a group of 5-8 states having their primary election from Jan. - June, would make it better. No state is of utmost importance. And someone can still catch fire in a later month. Still allows some retail politicking as well, in the smaller states.

This is actually the basis of a pretty good idea actually. I would agree that this would bring more attention to states that are traditionally not given alot of attention due to their size, or slant.

Imagine a handful of Republican candidates having to duke it out for the nomination in California for a change. We'd see quite a few far righters sweating bullets trying to show just how liberal they could be without alienating their conservative supporters.