View Full Version : North Korea Nuclear Test
Atlanteax
10-09-2006, 10:15 AM
Signs are pointing to the seismic activity in NK last night was indeed a nuclear test.
However, I'd say at this point, US military action remains unlikely for primarily two reasons:
1) Seoul (and the SK industrial base) would be at grave risk to any NK retailation
2) The blast was somewhat smaller than would be expected of a nuclear test, which indicates that the US still has time to craft its response.
The positive is that China is very upset over it, and is not pulling any punches with its criticism. China has also moved troops to its border, but primarily to prevent any refugee exodus into China. Russia is also condemning it, but blamed US sanctions for causing NK to do a nuclear test.
Russia's stance on blaming the US is similar to blaming one's parents for one's bad behavior.
"They made me do it!!!"
I dont think we'll see any escalation in US military action other than whats already there along the line of demarcation between NK/SK.
I forsee China being able to make more headway with NK than anyone else at this juncture. The only thing that makes me concerned is that NK officials are too quick to tell everyone what they want to hear inspite of having plans to do what they want to regardless of the opinion of the world community. That completely ruins NK's world credibility on the diplomatic stage, which gives everyone one less means in dealing with this issue non-violently.
fallenSaint
10-09-2006, 10:43 AM
Isn't northern Korea scheduled to be wiped off the map sometime soon anyway?
Atlanteax
10-09-2006, 12:39 PM
I forsee China being able to make more headway with NK than anyone else at this juncture. The only thing that makes me concerned is that NK officials are too quick to tell everyone what they want to hear inspite of having plans to do what they want to regardless of the opinion of the world community. That completely ruins NK's world credibility on the diplomatic stage, which gives everyone one less means in dealing with this issue non-violently.
The problem here is that NK has effectively demonstrated that it ignores China.
So the Chinese are no longer able to play the NK card with the US to keep US pressure at bay.
On the other hand, the Chinese likely will continue to provide some aid (food) to NK, despite expressed dissatisfaction, so as to not face a crisis of millions of starving NK refugees in the Winter season.
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The big loser here is not the US, but China.
US gets to do the "I told you so" and still remain aloof since NK is not a threat to the US (excepting the threat to SK/Japan).
Won't see any military action by the US without (unlikely) Chinese assistance to ensure that Seoul does not get blasted by NK retailation.
I could see the Chinese supporting US action with their own troops (better Chinese and SK troops than US on their border), but unfortunately they don't have anyone to tap in the NK leadership for coup purposes.
Again, the big loser is China.
Parkbandit
10-09-2006, 02:36 PM
US gets to do the "I told you so" and still remain aloof since NK is not a threat to the US (excepting the threat to SK/Japan).
Not a threat.. except when they start selling their bombs to other countries and organizations.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend...
Shari
10-09-2006, 03:24 PM
http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/end.php
Okay, so Korea isn't in the mix, but its still fucking hilarious.
Sean of the Thread
10-09-2006, 03:28 PM
WTF MATES?
Warriorbird
10-09-2006, 11:23 PM
North Korea just wants more aid money. Again.
Skeeter
10-09-2006, 11:45 PM
When do we attack?
If we weren't already at war with Iraq would we have attacked by now?
Doyle Hargraves
10-10-2006, 02:35 AM
Are all the l33t gamers from North or South Korea?
Warriorbird
10-10-2006, 03:05 AM
"If we weren't already at war with Iraq would we have attacked by now?"
No. We're perfectly willing to invade non nuclear countries.
The leet gamers are mainly from South Korea...though there are a few rebellious Northerners.
Atlanteax
10-10-2006, 09:56 AM
Latest update seems to be that it was a failed nuclear test.
Sean of the Thread
10-10-2006, 10:04 AM
The leet gamers are mainly from South Korea...though there are a few rebellious Northerners.
YOU BUY GOLD AMERICAN DOLLA!
Doyle Hargraves
10-10-2006, 02:34 PM
YOU BUY GOLD AMERICAN DOLLA!
I think you're confusing Koreans with Chinese.
Apathy
10-10-2006, 07:40 PM
^_^ keke
Artha
10-10-2006, 07:53 PM
zerg rush lolol ^_^
Hulkein
10-10-2006, 09:24 PM
I say we just let Asia deal with it and pump cash into the missile defense shield as opposed to spending the money to go in there, helping the rest of the world while we get shit for it.
Latrinsorm
10-10-2006, 10:18 PM
Being the good guys is tough sometimes, but if we don't do it, it's pretty clear that no one else will.
Goretawn
10-11-2006, 10:47 AM
We either go in strong with everything, or we don't go in at all. They have way too much artillery on the boarder, pointed at Soul, for us not to. I don't see it happening. Not in the near future.
We will just let the UN write a strongly worded letter. If they don't comply, they will send an even stroner worded letter and expect it to work. Of course, it will take 258 meetings in order to draft each letter. Expect the first one around the first of 2026.
Sean of the Thread
10-11-2006, 11:23 AM
UN is /le joke.
UN is /le joke.
Thats only because people don’t take it seriously.
Thats only because people don’t take it seriously.
Because it's a joke.
Sean of the Thread
10-11-2006, 11:57 AM
Because it's a joke.
QFT
Warriorbird
10-11-2006, 01:29 PM
Yeah...damn world cooperation and diplomacy. Terrible stuff.
Stanley Burrell
10-11-2006, 01:31 PM
O.o -__-
Landrion
10-11-2006, 01:36 PM
Yeah...damn world cooperation and diplomacy. Terrible stuff.
Well, take heart. Ultimately the U.N or something like it is the way of the future. The League of Nations failed and the U.N came after with more success. Maybe the U.N will fail and morph into something better, or maybe it'll just evolve.
It will have to eventually.
Atlanteax
10-11-2006, 02:30 PM
(along the lines of League of Nations evolving into U.N.)
U.N. will fail and will be replaced by a new organization that is effectively a World Government.
Government structure will be Federalized and resemble something like the current US or EU system where each nation is a state with the appropriate representative influence.
No Veto nonsense, but the Anglo-American bloc will be the strongest faction (US + UK + Canada + Australia) then a European bloc (centering around France + Germany).
I'd predict that under such a structure, the Anglo-American bloc will have a lot of allied (but independent) blocs (or individual nations) like Japan, Central Europeans like Poland (if not part of French/German bloc) that would ensure that the allied bloc can both accomplish and block agendas, but obviously won't always be able to maintain majority control.
.
One thing to note is that it's probable that each state/nation would have a # of representatives. So the "Green Party" would be an excellent example of a probable world-wide political party that would gain seats as Anglo, Europeans, Asians, and others. On the other hand, there will also be Christian-centric, Islam-centric, and other religious parties that likely will oppose each other more often that working together. Ironically, such a structure may be the only way that the "Christian World" and the "Islamic World" would be able to come to terms, as they'd otherwise have to negotiate within the World Government.
Atlanteax
10-12-2006, 12:00 PM
Attachment is the UN's response to the NK attempted/failed nuclear test.
Backlash, please take note.
.
ElanthianSiren
10-12-2006, 12:16 PM
Allright, to everyone mocking the UN and having a pissing contest here, what would you have THE UN do? -Nuke N. Korea?
-And how do you plan to deal with the ramifications of that action?
(This is by the way a serious question; your ignorant one-liners will be ignored, which may be the reason that this thread, on such a serious subject as nuclear testing, is as short as it is).
-M
Atlanteax
10-12-2006, 12:24 PM
Allright, to everyone mocking the UN and having a pissing contest here, what would you have THE UN do? -Nuke N. Korea?
-And how do you plan to deal with the ramifications of that action?
(This is by the way a serious question; your ignorant one-liners will be ignored, which may be the reason that this thread, on such a serious subject as nuclear testing, is as short as it is).
-M
Have China invite Kim Jong to Beijing (or elsewhere in China).
Detain him.
Chinese and SK forces moves into NK to install a new government (possibly accelerating the SK absorption of NK).
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The problem with that is that China does not want a US-friendly unified Korea on its border.
But, that would be the best way to handle the problem.
ElanthianSiren
10-12-2006, 12:48 PM
That's a good idea, but how do you ensure N. Korea will fall for it? -And how does China deal with the inevitable fall-out that experts claim will happen of starving N. Koreans storming its borders for admission in a completely uncertain political landscape?
Before you even get there in this hypothetical situation, it's a good bet that military commanders will be left in charge. Are you going to go to war with a country claiming to have nukes and remove their military? Are China and Japan (esp) going to take that risk? If you're going to orchestrate a military/hostile coup in N. Korea, how do you ensure a "good guy" is put into power?
Do you plan to have elections to replace him? Who is eligible to run? If the people have only seen high profile military leaders of Il's administration, won't those people inevitably fall into power?
In the interrum, if you're the UN, how do you plan to control a country in chaos when you leave a vaccume of having absorbed its political leader? There is a difference between a leader of established control, as we see in Iraq, and a leader in name only. What's the hawk plan to establish the "respect"/fear grip that Il has among his own people without resorting to his methods?
-M
Skirmisher
10-12-2006, 12:51 PM
Have China invite Kim Jong to Beijing (or elsewhere in China).
Detain him.
Chinese and SK forces moves into NK to install a new government (possibly accelerating the SK absorption of NK).
.
The problem with that is that China does not want a US-friendly unified Korea on its border.
But, that would be the best way to handle the problem.
Not that I think the top portion would ever happen but you can bet that they would at least give heavy consideration to the second portion when weighed against having a crazy guy with functioning nuclear weapons on their border.
Atlanteax
10-12-2006, 12:57 PM
That's a good idea, but how do you ensure N. Korea will fall for it? -And how does China deal with the inevitable fall-out that experts claim will happen of starving N. Koreans storming its borders for admission in a completely uncertain political landscape?
Before you even get there in this hypothetical situation, it's a good bet that military commanders will be left in charge. Are you going to go to war with a country claiming to have nukes and remove their military? Are China and Japan (esp) going to take that risk? If you're going to orchestrate a military/hostile coup in N. Korea, how do you ensure a "good guy" is put into power?
Do you plan to have elections to replace him? Who is eligible to run? If the people have only seen high profile military leaders of Il's administration, won't those people inevitably fall into power?
In the interrum, if you're the UN, how do you plan to control a country in chaos when you leave a vaccume of having absorbed its political leader? There is a difference between a leader of established control, as we see in Iraq, and a leader in name only. What's the hawk plan to establish the "respect"/fear grip that Il has among his own people without resorting to his methods?
-M
Chinese Troops advance from China.
Some stay at the border to hold in check refugees.
NK Peasantry (85+% of the population) would not lift a finger, knowing that they have and will continue (in the near-term) to depend on China for food/etc.
NK Military Leadership would arrange for surrender to SK forces, on the premise that they will be pardoned or not held liable.
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Also do not forget that, overall, NK *wants* to unify with SK.
In fact, NK thinks it is negotiating on behalf of a unified Korea when trying to hold talks with the US and international community.
The only thing stopping the unification process is the current NK regime.
If you detain Kim Jong in China (where he has gone before), it seems rather logical that the remainding leadership will find it in their best interest to arrange transfer of power to SK quickly.
Currently, the leadership is "loyal" to Kim Jong, because if they are not, it means the end of their family's lives.
The leadership vacuum in NK will be absorbed by SK. Once the current regime ends (even by other means, natural death in 15 years, for example), Unification will occur.
.
The situation in NK is completely different from Iraq. The only similarity is that they are headed by a brutual dictator.
Iraq is a mixed society of rival factions and ethnicities. That kind of built-in internal conflict is not present in NK.
Attachment is the UN's response to the NK attempted/failed nuclear test.
Backlash, please take note.
.
Not sure why you directed this at me. I don’t run the UN, I’m not a head of state on the security council, and have no influence whatsoever on how the UN works other than my own opinion. But thanks for pointing out the obvious.
Do I think the UN is perfect? No. Do I think it needs work? Definitely. If you want my opinion I think the US delegate Bolton is a jack-ass.
Report: N. Korea 'sorry' for nuke test (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061020/ap_on_re_as/nkorea_kim_nuclear;_ylt=Au3oF3SRRFA9C2kLXrVM3Bus0N UE;_ylu=X3oDMTA2Z2szazkxBHNlYwN0bQ--)
SEOUL, South Korea - North Korean leader Kim Jong Il said Pyongyang didn't plan to carry out any more nuclear tests and expressed regret about the country's first-ever atomic detonation last week, a South Korean news agency reported Friday.
North Korea, however, kept up its bellicose rhetoric as more than 100,000 people gathered Friday in Pyongyang's central Kim Il Sung square to "hail the success of the historic nuclear test," according to the North's official media.
Kim told Chinese State Councilor Tang Jiaxuan that "we have no plans for additional nuclear tests," Yonhap news agency reported, citing an unnamed diplomatic source in Beijing.
Japan's Foreign Minister Taro Aso said Friday that he has information, though not confirmed, that North Korea is not planning a second nuclear test, Kyodo News agency reported.
Kim also told the Chinese that "he is sorry about the nuclear test," the mass-circulation Chosun Ilbo daily reported, citing a diplomatic source in China. The North Korean leader also raised the possibility the country would return to arms talks.
-------------------------------------------------------
I scanned the story, but there are no specifics as to why KJI is doing an about-face on this. Something big must have happened on the diplomatic front that we just aren’t privy to. I wonder what it was...
Sean of the Thread
10-20-2006, 12:24 PM
Well something big did happen this time.. China said fuck you to all finances.
That aside it's my opinion he had it planned this way all the time. Keep pressing on with his nukes and then when the pressure heats up tell everyone what they want to hear (like every time before).
Rinse Wash Repeat. Sooner or later you'll have Rinse Wash Nuke.
Parkbandit
10-20-2006, 12:26 PM
Like a child to his parent.. of course Kim is 'sorry'. Daddy China wasn't happy and Kim didn't want to be grounded.
Apathy
10-20-2006, 07:27 PM
Report: N. Korea 'sorry' for nuke test (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061020/ap_on_re_as/nkorea_kim_nuclear;_ylt=Au3oF3SRRFA9C2kLXrVM3Bus0N UE;_ylu=X3oDMTA2Z2szazkxBHNlYwN0bQ--)
I scanned the story, but there are no specifics as to why KJI is doing an about-face on this. Something big must have happened on the diplomatic front that we just aren’t privy to. I wonder what it was...
Condi knows how to get what she wants.
Condi knows how to get what she wants.
Does she? Since you know, maybe you could tell us.
Apathy
10-21-2006, 04:14 AM
Does she? Since you know, maybe you could tell us.
Unfortunetly your politics have destroyed your sense of humor. Stop being so mature.
Unless, of course, you want to know about her birth mark.
This is why North Korea does not need nuclear weapons...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KA6livwPnGI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBzHCVv5GeQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kz-UdGmHsR4
(graphic)
:(
Artha
10-24-2006, 04:39 PM
They do some pretty grim stuff in the NK prison camps.
From the few undercover videos I have seen taken in North Korea they revere Kim Jong Il as a God. They hate America and the only television/press is from the state. They have a million man army and dedicate much of their GDP to the military.
It seems like a lose/lose proposition. Attacking a nuclear nation will cause them to use said nuclear bombs. Sanctions won't affect Kim Jong Il only his poor population. They print alot of counterfeit US dollars in NK, the also make money off drug exports to Japan and selling conventional weapons to anyone with $.
We need to better patrol the waters around NK, intercept his boats selling drugs and weapons but he make take that as a sign out of war and release his nuke. I don't see an easyway out.
Japan is considering stepping up its naval activity to help with the blockade. And now NK is saying that if SK continues to close its borders to NK goods, then it will consider that a declaration of war.
It seems that everything is a declaration of war with this guy. I agree, there will be no easy way out of this one. And I dont see diplomacy going the distance with someone who will easily lie and subterfuge in order to get what he wants as KJI is known to do.
Artha
10-26-2006, 02:31 PM
They have a million man army and dedicate much of their GDP to the military.
Per-capita, they're the most militarized nation on Earth. 22% of the GDP goes to the military. That's not saying much, though, because they have very few exports - all their tanks are Soviet era, so about 50 years old. If it didn't have to worry about rearming, a single F22 raptor could take down their entire airforce in 15 minutes.
The problem is the 13k hidden artillery pieces pointing directly at Seoul. 300,000 rounds in an hour + city with a population density of 44,000 per square mile = not good.
My message to Kim Jong II: Do the world a favor and commit suicide by throwing yourself off your platform shoes, please. Lil Saddam has some serious mental issues.
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