Trump to Choose New VP

[ClydeR]

If Trump wants to switch to a different VP, he has less than two weeks left to do it. Whom should he pick, or should he stick with Vance?


"And I'll bet President Trump is sitting there scratching his head and wondering, ‘Why did I pick this guy?’ The choice may be one of the best things he ever did for Democrats," Schumer said.

Referring to Trump, the former president and 2024 Republican presidential nominee, Schumer said "the president has about 10 days – 10 days before the Ohio ballot is locked in."

"And he has a choice: does he keep Vance on the ticket?" Schumer said. "He already has a whole lot of baggage, he's probably going to be more baggage over the weeks because we'll hear more things about him, or does he pick someone new? What's his choice?"

More... (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/schumer-calls-trump-pick-new-running-mate-claims-vance-best-thing-hes-ever-done-democrats)

[ClydeR]

Another article on the same subject, this time from the New York Post..


Vance, a freshman senator who won a bruising 2022 GOP primary with Trump’s backing, had made particularly close ties with Donald Trump Jr., who pushed for him to get the VP slot.

Trump’s decision for runningmate came before President Biden made the seismic announcement that he was dropping out of the 2024 presidential race and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris, who is now scrambling to select a VP contender of her own.

More... (https://nypost.com/2024/07/28/us-news/chuck-schumer-claims-trump-wants-to-ditch-jd-vance-as-vp/)

Conservative outlets are pushing this story, no doubt hoping to influence one person with the power to make a change.

[ClydeR]

Strong condemnation of Vance's catlady comments from Trey Gowdy on FoxNews last night..



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWldAqSz1pw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWldAqSz1pw


Gowdy basically said Vance needs to ask for forgiveness, instead of doubling down on the comments. Vance declined to ask.

I know a coordinated pressure campaign when I see one.

[Methais]

A Thread For ClydeR (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?137591-A-Thread-For-ClydeR)

[ClydeR]

Voters intuitively know that, because Trump is the oldest presidential nominee ever, there is a higher than ever probability that, if Trump is elected, his vice president would have to assume office.

The Social Security Administration publishes actuarial estimates (https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) of dying within one year. The probability that someone Trump's age will die within one year is 5.3%. That probability increases each succeeding year, until it reaches 8% during Trump's last year in office. When you cumulate the probabilities, you'll see that President Vance is both a possibility and a probability. Those statistics are just about death. They don't even take disability into consideration.

That's why conservative media outlets are pushing this story.

At the link above, you can look up the probability that you will survive another year. Always fun.

[ClydeR]

Trump may be forced to replace Vance with cat lady Tim Scott. Don't worry. If Scott leaves the Senate, South Carolina will still have another cat lady Senator. Pretty amazing that SC has two cat ladies in the Senate.

Whoever Trump chooses, he must choose soon. In just a few days, the jail door will close on his opportunity to make a change.

How does South Carolina's other cat lady Senator feel about Vance's comments? Lindsey Graham spoke out yesterday, and he did not defend Vance's comments at all. Instead, he just said Vance is a good person at heart.

[ClydeR]

Claude says there is 74.19% that Trump will still be alive on January 20, 2029, when, if he is elected, his successor will be sworn in. In other words, there is a 25.81% chance that JD Vance will become President before the end of Trump's term. That's exactly the same probability as guessing the correct answer on a multiple choice test.



https://i.imgur.com/ZXhQY5A.png

Prompt: Based on the table, what is the probability that a male born on June 14, 1946, will be alive on January 20, 2029?

Let's approach this step-by-step:

1. First, let's determine the person's age on January 20, 2029:
Born: June 14, 1946
Date in question: January 20, 2029
Age on this date: 82 years, 7 months, and 6 days (approximately 82.55 years)

2. We need to calculate the probability of surviving from age 78 (current age given in the table) to 82.55.

3. Let's calculate the probability of surviving each full year:
Age 78 to 79: 1 - 0.053229 = 0.946771
Age 79 to 80: 1 - 0.058778 = 0.941222
Age 80 to 81: 1 - 0.064617 = 0.935383
Age 81 to 82: 1 - 0.070947 = 0.929053

4. For the partial year from 82 to 82.55:
Probability of dying at 82: 0.077834
Probability of dying at 83: 0.085686
Interpolated probability of dying for 0.55 of a year:
0.077834 + (0.085686 - 0.077834) * 0.55 = 0.082119
Probability of surviving this partial year:
1 - (0.082119 * 0.55) = 0.954835

5. Now, let's multiply all these probabilities:
0.946771 * 0.941222 * 0.935383 * 0.929053 * 0.954835 = 0.741883

Therefore, based on the table, the probability that a male born on June 14, 1946, will be alive on January 20, 2029, is approximately 0.741883 or 74.19%.

This calculation assumes that the mortality rates change linearly between the ages given in the table and uses the limited data provided. In reality, more sophisticated actuarial methods might be used for more precise calculations.

[ClydeR]

In addition, previous emails between Vance and a friend reported by the New York Times show Vance saying he hated the police because they mistreated people, calling Trump a “morally reprehensible human being” and saying that “the more white people feel like voting for Trump, the more Black people will suffer.” A Trump adviser called the emails “not ideal.”

More... (https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/07/28/vance-debut-rocky/)


Trump has stopped mentioning Vance in social media posts.

[ClydeR]

In this episode, JD Vance says
Parents should get one extra vote per child.
Daylight savings time reduces fertility by 10%.
"Universal day care is class war against normal people."



“Let’s give votes to all children in this country, but let’s give control over those votes to the parents of those children,” Vance said. “When you go to the polls in this country, as a parent, you should have more power, you should have more of an ability to speak your voice in our democratic republic than people who don’t have kids.”

“Let’s face the consequences and the reality. If you don’t have as much as an investment in the future of this country, maybe you shouldn’t get nearly the same voice,” he continued.

More... (https://keystonenewsroom.com/2024/07/25/jd-vance-children-parents-vote/)



Vance’s obsession with people having children and boosting birthrates branches out in strange directions, too. In 2020, he wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, that “daylight savings time reduces fertility by at least 10 percent.”



“‘Universal day care’ is class war against normal people,” Vance wrote on X in 2021, arguing that it was a “massive subsidy to the lifestyle preferences of the affluent over the preferences of the middle and working class.”

[ClydeR]

At his ill-fated NABJ appearance, Trump was hardly effusive in praising Vance..


Trump didn’t directly answer a question from Fox News anchor Harris Faulkner about whether his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, was ready to serve as president.

“Historically, the vice president, in terms of the election, does not have any impact,” Trump said. “I mean, virtually no impact … Virtually never has it mattered.”

The response was far from a rousing endorsement of his running mate, even as the former president praised Vance for his advocacy for the “working man and woman.”

More... (https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/31/trump-nabj-interview-quotes-00172165)

[ClydeR]

I heard Trump plans to wait until right after the Democratic convention to fire Vance. That's what Biden did to Trump, changing the public discussion away from favorable media coverage of Trump following the Republican convention. The only problem with that plan is that some states, especially Ohio, will already have finalized their ballots by then.

[ClydeR]

JD Vance is now the least popular vice presidential candidate in modern history – even below Sarah Palin, according to polling averages collated by FiveThirtyEight.

More... (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/jd-vance-now-least-popular-164628897.html)


Trump could really shake things up by replacing Vance. It would be a bold move.

[Suppressed Poet]

Trump could really shake things up by replacing Vance. It would be a bold move.

Bro, you just gotta learn to accept him as your new VP. The sooner you do, the easier it will be for you.

[Methais]

Trump could really shake things up by replacing Vance. It would be a bold move.

Why do you want him to replace Vance so badly?


Speaking of Sarah Palin, here's Kamala's Sarah Palin newspaper moment:

Skip to 3:42 (https://youtu.be/4JQC3uHSVTA?si=ZSp1uTTFI9Gu5nTl&t=221)

https://youtu.be/4JQC3uHSVTA?si=ZSp1uTTFI9Gu5nTl&t=221

[~Rocktar~]

A Thread For ClydeR (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?137591-A-Thread-For-ClydeR)

[ClydeR]

Vance's awkward campaign stop (https://www.youtube.com/shorts/c9orQTBdCl8) at a doughnut shop generated this funny video..


https://www.tiktok.com/@samcahntent/video/7406532851887377707

[ClydeR]

In newly unearthed audio from 2021, Vance says school teachers should be required to have biological children. You may recall that Vance defended his "cat lady" comments as mere sarcasm. He doesn't sound sarcastic is this new audio.


Another one of J.D. Vance’s "childless" jibes is coming back to haunt him ... this time slamming teachers who don’t have biological kids ... which fits right in with his controversial "cat lady" remark.

In unearthed audio from 2021, you can hear J.D. ranting about how disoriented and disturbed he feels about leaders of the left without biological kiddos of their own trying to "brainwash the minds of our children."

Listen to the clip -- J.D. specifically targets American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten ... saying "she doesn't have a single child" ... and urges her to have children of her own and "leave ours the hell alone."

More... (https://www.tmz.com/2024/08/27/jd-vance-teachers-without-kids-disturbing/)



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCq6M0U19cw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCq6M0U19cw

[ClydeR]

More weird statements from Vance's past come to light. Still about cat ladies.


JD Vance said professional women choose “a path to misery” by prioritizing their careers over having children—and argued that men and boys were “suppressed,” in a resurfaced podcast from 2021.

More... (https://www.thedailybeast.com/jd-vance-rants-about-miserable-professional-women-in-unearthed-clip)



And then he said male children should play fight imaginary monsters in preparation for repelling a Chinese invasion..


The father of three said his son’s habit of fighting imaginary monsters was part of “something deeply cultural and biological, spiritual about this desire to defend his home and his family.”

“If the Chinese invade us in 10 years,” Vance mused, “they’re going to be beaten back by boys… who practice fighting the monsters who become proud men who defend their homes.”

“They’re not going to be defended by the soy boys who want to feed the monsters,” he added, using an insult intended to emasculate others.


As noted already in this thread, because Republicans have nominated a candidate older than any candidate nominated by any major party in history, there is statistically a 25% chance that Vance will become President before the end of Trump's term, if Trump is elected.

[ClydeR]

GOP vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance (Ohio) on Monday amplified a false claim that Haitian immigrants are abducting and eating pets in Springfield, Ohio, despite the city’s police department denial of any such incidents.

More... (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4869901-vance-haitians-eating-pets-ohio-trump/)

What kind of pet would taste best? I'm thinking parrots.

[~Rocktar~]

A Thread For ClydeR (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?137591-A-Thread-For-ClydeR)

[ClydeR]

After further consideration, I've decided to change my vote to mini pig.

[ClydeR]

Vance has said watching the former president enact his populist agenda for left-behind Americans transformed him from a “Never Trump” conservative in 2016 to a Trump supporter in 2020.

But Vance privately expressed a very different verdict on Trump as the former president’s first term was nearing its end, previously unreported messages obtained by The Washington Post show.

In the direct messages — sent during Trump’s final year in office to an acquaintance over the social media platform then known as Twitter — Vance harshly criticized his future running mate’s record of governance and said Trump had not fulfilled his economic agenda.

“Trump has just so thoroughly failed to deliver on his economic populism (excepting a disjointed China policy),” Vance wrote in February 2020.

More... (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/27/jd-vance-messages-trump-criticism-2020/)

Vance's Twitter DMs were his real opinion of Trump's performance. Expect to hear more about this in the VP debate next week, unless Trump replaces Vance before then.

Remember, because Trump is the oldest presidential nominee ever by a major political party, there is a 25% actuarial chance that Vance will become President if Trump is elected.

[~Rocktar~]

Vance's Twitter DMs were his real opinion of Trump's performance. Expect to hear more about this in the VP debate next week, unless Trump replaces Vance before then.

Remember, because Trump is the oldest presidential nominee ever by a major political party, there is a 25% actuarial chance that Vance will become President if Trump is elected.

So, it's OK with Harris to "change her positions" without any explanation but Vance changed his mind and has explained it many time but that's not ok. Got it you flaming ass hurt hypocrite.

[Methais]

So, it's OK with Harris to "change her positions" without any explanation but Vance changed his mind and has explained it many time but that's not ok. Got it you flaming ass hurt hypocrite.

The difference is Harris is full of shit with all her flip flops, and ClydeR's TDS is so bad that he actually believes her. Because he's retarded.

[~Rocktar~]

The difference is Harris is full of shit with all her flip flops, and ClydeR's TDS is so bad that he actually believes her. Because he's retarded.

Yeah, and I forgot and broke the rule with a reply here instead of his retard specific thread.

[Methais]

Yeah, and I forgot and broke the rule with a reply here instead of his retard specific thread.


https://media.tenor.com/QCWto5N6k0EAAAAM/caos-bob.gif


This thread is now about SpongeBob. And Slayer.

https://i.imgur.com/bD7CYEi.png

[Neveragain]

https://media.tenor.com/QCWto5N6k0EAAAAM/caos-bob.gif


This thread is now about SpongeBob. And Slayer.

https://i.imgur.com/bD7CYEi.png

I used to make my staff sing the SpongeBob song at the start of every shift.

I'm also too old for Slayer, my metal days ended with Metallica/Megadeath.

[Gelston]

I used to make my staff sing the SpongeBob song at the start of every shift.

I'm also too old for Slayer, my metal days ended with Metallica/Megadeath.

wut? Slayer started before Megadeth and at the same time as Metallica. You don't know 80's metal.

[Methais]

I used to make my staff sing the SpongeBob song at the start of every shift.

I'm also too old for Slayer, my metal days ended with Metallica/Megadeath.

There's only one "a" in Megadeth.

Reported.



wut? Slayer started before Megadeth and at the same time as Metallica. You don't know 80's metal.


Slayer, Megadeth, Metallica, and Anthrax were the "Big Four" bands of thrash metal. Kind of makes it impossible to be too old for Slayer if one's metal days ended with Metallica/Megadeth.

Fun fact: Tom Araya and his wife and kids are all black belts.

https://i.imgur.com/vIzIAPI.png

[drumpel]

There's only one "a" in Megadeth.

Reported.





Slayer, Megadeth, Metallica, and Anthrax were the "Big Four" bands of thrash metal. Kind of makes it impossible to be too old for Slayer if one's metal days ended with Metallica/Megadeth.

Fun fact: Tom Araya and his wife and kids are all black belts.

https://i.imgur.com/vIzIAPI.png

That picture proves they're all brown belts.

[Neveragain]

wut? Slayer started before Megadeth and at the same time as Metallica. You don't know 80's metal.

Slayer sucks. It's why they have 50 million record sales compared to Metallica's 125 million.

[Methais]

That picture proves they're all brown belts.

Before they were black belts, yes.

https://i.imgur.com/UCgQbR1.png
https://www.vice.com/en/article/slayer-tom-araya-2015/

https://i.imgur.com/lhskgky.png


Slayer sucks. It's why they have 50 million record sales compared to Metallica's 125 million.

Slayer has never done any real marketing and certainly weren't pushed in the mainstream like Metallica was.

All that considered, there should be a much larger gap than 50m vs. 125m.


Plus, Metallica has Lars, who plays shit like this and would get pwned x999999999 by Dave Lombardo.

Lars lol:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFky8BlAIrg

[Methais]

Here's Metallica with a real drummer. Dave Lombardo makes every band sound at least 500% better. 1000% when he's filling in for Lars.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96nV-x3jfLg

[Neveragain]

Here's Metallica with a real drummer. Dave Lombardo makes every band sound at least 500% better. 1000% when he's filling in for Lars.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96nV-x3jfLg

Interesting side note.

Metallica was in the process of getting rid of Lars, then Cliff died and they decided it would probably end the band if they got rid of Lars.

Luckily I got to see Cliff play at the '86 Iowa Jam just a couple months before the bus accident.

My last concert was Ozzy/Rob Zombie.

[Gelston]

Slayer sucks. It's why they have 50 million record sales compared to Metallica's 125 million.

Metallica is a bunch of fucking sellouts that whined about napster and their last 20 years of music has mostly been fucking trash.

[Methais]

Metallica is a bunch of fucking sellouts that whined about napster and their last 20 years of music has mostly been fucking trash.

This is correct. Metallica hasn't been good since And Justice For All in 1988.

[Neveragain]

Metallica is a bunch of fucking sellouts that whined about napster and their last 20 years of music has mostly been fucking trash.

:shrug:

The only ones that really matter are Sabbath anyway.

Heavy Metal doesn't happen if Tony doesn't have his fingers removed by heavy metal.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLC2qwFLbqc

[Neveragain]

This is correct. Metallica hasn't been good since And Justice For All in 1988.

I agree 100% and so does Dave...

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSEXifNheYW7fJbxQj5B3g2Ms9fNL4iM nSRPQ&s