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View Full Version : Don’t believe the polls - Trump is winning



Fierna
10-30-2020, 09:19 PM
It’s because people are skeptical when asked directly about who they’re voting for, especially Trump voters.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/522957-dont-believe-the-polls-trump-is-winning-bigly?amp

Astray
10-30-2020, 09:20 PM
Skeptical or secretive?

time4fun
10-30-2020, 09:41 PM
This article was terribly reasoned. Trump still could very well win (~10% chance), but the arguments here are so beyond speculative, they're just laughable. "Research shows that the wording of questions can affect responses!" Yeah, someone call the entire polling industry and let them know about this hugely important new discovery. And they ignore important counter-evidence. "People don't like confrontation!" Correct, but there's no significant difference between Trump support in live caller polls vs online polls, which kind of kills that entire point.

It's just a silly article.

BriarFox
10-30-2020, 09:46 PM
Yeah. It’s the sort of terribly reasoned piece that ends up becoming a GRE “Analyze This Argument” question for wannabe grad students to tear apart.

Fortybox
10-31-2020, 01:14 AM
This article was terribly reasoned. Trump still could very well win (~10% chance), but the arguments here are so beyond speculative, they're just laughable. "Research shows that the wording of questions can affect responses!" Yeah, someone call the entire polling industry and let them know about this hugely important new discovery. And they ignore important counter-evidence. "People don't like confrontation!" Correct, but there's no significant difference between Trump support in live caller polls vs online polls, which kind of kills that entire point.

It's just a silly article.

Hi.

Remember that time when you were completely and utterly wrong back in 2016?

Bhaalizmo
11-07-2020, 12:28 PM
Hi.

Remember that time when you were completely and utterly wrong back in 2016?


https://youtu.be/WkZ5e94QnWk