time4fun
07-24-2017, 10:22 PM
Brookings released (https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2017/07/24/does-the-opening-predict-a-wave/) its biannual count of House candidates (Republican and Democratic) who have raised at least $5k for the next House election. The results are...startling.
First, some background:
2003- 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
R 29 24 49 78 40 52 28
D 22 48 57 40 42 45 44
Election Result:
D3 D31 D21 R63 D8 R13 D6
So as you can see, the candidate recruitment has at least a moderate amount of predictive value- particularly when the number of candidates are skewed. So, when Democrats had twice the number of candidates in 2005, they ended up picking up 31 seats. In 2009, when Republicans had almost twice the number of seats as Democrats, they picked up a whopping 63 seats. In every year except 2003, the party with the larger number of candidates recruited has gone on to make gains in the House in the following election (2003 things were pretty close).
Now, let's take a look at 2017:
Republicans: 28
Democrats: 209
That has broken the record to the point where it's hard to tell exactly what the impact will be. This will certainly be interesting.
First, some background:
2003- 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
R 29 24 49 78 40 52 28
D 22 48 57 40 42 45 44
Election Result:
D3 D31 D21 R63 D8 R13 D6
So as you can see, the candidate recruitment has at least a moderate amount of predictive value- particularly when the number of candidates are skewed. So, when Democrats had twice the number of candidates in 2005, they ended up picking up 31 seats. In 2009, when Republicans had almost twice the number of seats as Democrats, they picked up a whopping 63 seats. In every year except 2003, the party with the larger number of candidates recruited has gone on to make gains in the House in the following election (2003 things were pretty close).
Now, let's take a look at 2017:
Republicans: 28
Democrats: 209
That has broken the record to the point where it's hard to tell exactly what the impact will be. This will certainly be interesting.