Latrinsorm
12-02-2016, 07:53 PM
In the sense of "how many votes would it take to flip an election?" I don't know if anyone has thought of this approach before but I hadn't seen it done so I did it. It's pretty straightforward I think, you tally up the states based on how many votes separated the two major candidates and divide that into the number of electoral votes given by that state (or District or district), and go down the list starting with the biggest number until you have enough electoral votes to flip the outcome. For example, in 2000 Florida was decided by 537 votes and awarded 25 electoral votes, by far the highest ratio, and since the election was decided by 5 electoral votes it is the only state listed. I did the analysis out to 1916, here it is:
Year EC Gap Votes States
2016 70 38597 Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania
2012 126 248665 Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Virginia
2008 192 495312 North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, Iowa
2004 35 78075 New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio
2000 5 269 Florida
1996 220 739672 Nevada, Kentucky, Arizona, Tennessee, New Mexico, Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Delaware, Oregon, Pennsylvania
1992 202 287981 Georgia, New Hampshire, Nevada, Montana, Ohio, New Jersey, Kentucky, Delaware, Colorado, Tennessee, Louisiana, New Mexico
1988 315 670703 Vermont, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Mexico, Montana, South Dakota, California, Missouri, Connecticut, Delaware, North Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, Michigan
1984 512 3120126 Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Maryland, Hawaii, Iowa, West Virginia, Vermont, Pennsylvania, New York, Delaware, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Oregon, Montana, Nevada, Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, Illinois, Wyoming, South Dakota, Georgia, Maine, Kentucky, North Dakota, Arkansas, Mississippi, California
1980 440 802677 Massachusetts, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Delaware, Alabama, Kentucky, North Carolina, New York, Vermont, Maine, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois
1976 57 102018 Ohio, Hawaii, Mississippi, Wisconsin, Delaware, Pennsylvania
1972 503 3182832 Rhode Island, South Dakota, Alaska, Minnesota, Oregon, Montana, Delaware, Wisconsin, Vermont, Nevada, Hawaii, Wyoming, New Mexico, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, North Dakota, California, Iowa, Idaho, Washington, New York, Connecticut, Maryland, Illinois, Kentucky
1968 110 90944 Alaska, Missouri, Delaware, Ohio, New Jersey
1964 434 2158075 Idaho, Florida, Nebraska, Wyoming, Virginia, Alaska, Nevada, South Dakota, Utah, North Dakota, Kansas, Tennessee, Arkansas, Montana, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Delaware, New Mexico, Vermont, Indiana, New Hampshire, Texas, Hawaii, Colorado, Iowa, California, Kentucky
1960 84 10624 Hawaii, Illinois, New Mexico, Missouri
1956 384 1258005 Tennessee, Nevada, Delaware, Wyoming, West Virginia, Louisiana, Texas, Minnesota, Kentucky, Montana, Virginia, New Mexico, Washington, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Oregon, North Dakota, Idaho, Rhode Island, Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania
1952 353 731589 Tennessee, Rhode Island, Delaware, Missouri, Texas, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Maryland, Washington, Montana, Massachusetts, Minnesota
1948 114 30260 Ohio, Nevada, California, Illinois
1944 333 278649 Michigan, New Jersey, Nevada, Idaho, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Delaware, Oregon, Montana, Illinois, Connecticut, Minnesota
1940 367 433839 Wisconsin, Wyoming, Illinois, Nevada, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Idaho, Ohio, Missouri, Connecticut, Oregon
1936 515 1959946 New Hampshire, Delaware, Nevada, Kansas, Wyoming, South Dakota, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Iowa, Virginia, Arkansas, Connecticut, South Carolina, Nebraska, New Mexico, Idaho, Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan, Mississippi, Indiana, Arizona, Georgia, Alabama, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Maryland, Utah, West Virginia
1932 413 910725 New Jersey, Ohio, Massachusetts, Wyoming, Nevada, Michigan, Rhode Island, Utah, Kansas, West Virginia, Idaho, Colorado, Virginia, Tennessee, Montana, South Carolina, New York, Indiana
1928 357 422969 Texas, Nevada, Virginia, New York, Tennessee, Utah, Arizona, North Dakota, North Carolina, Connecticut, Florida, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Montana, Missouri, Maryland
1924 246 508874 Arizona, Nevada, Maryland, Kentucky, New Mexico, West Virginia, Missouri, Delaware, Utah, Wyoming, Rhode Island, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Idaho, Indiana, South Dakota, Oregon, Maine, Vermont
1920 277 596475 Tennessee, Nevada, Arizona, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Delaware, Wyoming, Utah, Maryland, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Missouri, Rhode Island, Idaho, Colorado, Vermont, Indiana, Oregon, Maine, Montana, South Dakota, Connecticut
1916 23 3970 New Hampshire, California, North Dakota, New Mexico
I've starred elections that had a significant third party presence, and as stated only took votes from the two major party candidates to flip states. As it turns out taking votes from third party candidates when they did win electoral votes would have been quantitatively a more difficult path anyway. While a lot of the old ones are interesting, I think it makes most sense to focus on 1972-present. Everyone had the right to vote, third party candidates were still present but their impact was far smaller and less frequent, no realignments occurred. Everyone knows the 2000 election was close, but I was surprised in retrospect at how close the 2004 election was too. 88-96 provide a good case study of why going by sheer electoral margin can be misleading. And then there's 2016, the second closest election in this loosely defined modern era even though by electoral margin it seems twice as thorough as 2004.
Anyway I thought it was interesting, let me know your thoughts! :)
Year EC Gap Votes States
2016 70 38597 Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania
2012 126 248665 Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Virginia
2008 192 495312 North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, Iowa
2004 35 78075 New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio
2000 5 269 Florida
1996 220 739672 Nevada, Kentucky, Arizona, Tennessee, New Mexico, Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Delaware, Oregon, Pennsylvania
1992 202 287981 Georgia, New Hampshire, Nevada, Montana, Ohio, New Jersey, Kentucky, Delaware, Colorado, Tennessee, Louisiana, New Mexico
1988 315 670703 Vermont, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Mexico, Montana, South Dakota, California, Missouri, Connecticut, Delaware, North Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, Michigan
1984 512 3120126 Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Maryland, Hawaii, Iowa, West Virginia, Vermont, Pennsylvania, New York, Delaware, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Oregon, Montana, Nevada, Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, Illinois, Wyoming, South Dakota, Georgia, Maine, Kentucky, North Dakota, Arkansas, Mississippi, California
1980 440 802677 Massachusetts, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Delaware, Alabama, Kentucky, North Carolina, New York, Vermont, Maine, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois
1976 57 102018 Ohio, Hawaii, Mississippi, Wisconsin, Delaware, Pennsylvania
1972 503 3182832 Rhode Island, South Dakota, Alaska, Minnesota, Oregon, Montana, Delaware, Wisconsin, Vermont, Nevada, Hawaii, Wyoming, New Mexico, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, North Dakota, California, Iowa, Idaho, Washington, New York, Connecticut, Maryland, Illinois, Kentucky
1968 110 90944 Alaska, Missouri, Delaware, Ohio, New Jersey
1964 434 2158075 Idaho, Florida, Nebraska, Wyoming, Virginia, Alaska, Nevada, South Dakota, Utah, North Dakota, Kansas, Tennessee, Arkansas, Montana, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Delaware, New Mexico, Vermont, Indiana, New Hampshire, Texas, Hawaii, Colorado, Iowa, California, Kentucky
1960 84 10624 Hawaii, Illinois, New Mexico, Missouri
1956 384 1258005 Tennessee, Nevada, Delaware, Wyoming, West Virginia, Louisiana, Texas, Minnesota, Kentucky, Montana, Virginia, New Mexico, Washington, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Oregon, North Dakota, Idaho, Rhode Island, Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania
1952 353 731589 Tennessee, Rhode Island, Delaware, Missouri, Texas, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Maryland, Washington, Montana, Massachusetts, Minnesota
1948 114 30260 Ohio, Nevada, California, Illinois
1944 333 278649 Michigan, New Jersey, Nevada, Idaho, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Delaware, Oregon, Montana, Illinois, Connecticut, Minnesota
1940 367 433839 Wisconsin, Wyoming, Illinois, Nevada, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Idaho, Ohio, Missouri, Connecticut, Oregon
1936 515 1959946 New Hampshire, Delaware, Nevada, Kansas, Wyoming, South Dakota, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Iowa, Virginia, Arkansas, Connecticut, South Carolina, Nebraska, New Mexico, Idaho, Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan, Mississippi, Indiana, Arizona, Georgia, Alabama, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Maryland, Utah, West Virginia
1932 413 910725 New Jersey, Ohio, Massachusetts, Wyoming, Nevada, Michigan, Rhode Island, Utah, Kansas, West Virginia, Idaho, Colorado, Virginia, Tennessee, Montana, South Carolina, New York, Indiana
1928 357 422969 Texas, Nevada, Virginia, New York, Tennessee, Utah, Arizona, North Dakota, North Carolina, Connecticut, Florida, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Montana, Missouri, Maryland
1924 246 508874 Arizona, Nevada, Maryland, Kentucky, New Mexico, West Virginia, Missouri, Delaware, Utah, Wyoming, Rhode Island, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Idaho, Indiana, South Dakota, Oregon, Maine, Vermont
1920 277 596475 Tennessee, Nevada, Arizona, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Delaware, Wyoming, Utah, Maryland, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Missouri, Rhode Island, Idaho, Colorado, Vermont, Indiana, Oregon, Maine, Montana, South Dakota, Connecticut
1916 23 3970 New Hampshire, California, North Dakota, New Mexico
I've starred elections that had a significant third party presence, and as stated only took votes from the two major party candidates to flip states. As it turns out taking votes from third party candidates when they did win electoral votes would have been quantitatively a more difficult path anyway. While a lot of the old ones are interesting, I think it makes most sense to focus on 1972-present. Everyone had the right to vote, third party candidates were still present but their impact was far smaller and less frequent, no realignments occurred. Everyone knows the 2000 election was close, but I was surprised in retrospect at how close the 2004 election was too. 88-96 provide a good case study of why going by sheer electoral margin can be misleading. And then there's 2016, the second closest election in this loosely defined modern era even though by electoral margin it seems twice as thorough as 2004.
Anyway I thought it was interesting, let me know your thoughts! :)