Are Polls Useful This Far Out?

[ClydeR]

Fascinating article with a good chart.


But the election is more than five months away. When should you start to care about polls?

With some caveats, we believe the answer is: not quite yet.

The chart above shows how much the polling average at each point of the election cycle has differed from the final result. Each gray line represents a presidential election since 1980. The bright green line represents the average difference.

At this point – 167 days before the election – a simple polling average has differed from the final result by about nine percentage points. We expect this average to become more meaningful by the week, until the national party conventions temporarily make it less so, as shown in the bump about 100 days before the election. The average difference begins to flatten about two months before the election. The day before the voting, an unadjusted polling average has been about 3.5 points off the final result.

More... (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/25/upshot/when-should-you-start-to-care-about-polls.html)

[Androidpk]

Fascinating article with a good chart.

And what is your take on it? Too early to look at polls?

[ClydeR]

And what is your take on it? Too early to look at polls?

Clinton will get a bump for wrapping up the nomination in the next few days. In two weeks, things should start to even out. Start looking at polls two weeks from now on June 29. Then two weeks after that, stop watching the polls again until two weeks after the end of the party conventions. That takes you to around August 15 when the polls will become meaningful again.

[time4fun]

Clinton will get a bump for wrapping up the nomination in the next few days. In two weeks, things should start to even out. Start looking at polls two weeks from now on June 29. Then two weeks after that, stop watching the polls again until two weeks after the end of the party conventions. That takes you to around August 15 when the polls will become meaningful again.

The overall Clinton vs Trump number isn't super reliable right now.

But the demographic breakdown of support is. So keeping your eye on that part of surveys makes them useful.

[Androidpk]

lololol time4fun, never stop posting

[time4fun]

lololol time4fun, never stop posting

If you don't understand that comment, you don't understand elections.

[ClydeR]

Clinton will get a bump for wrapping up the nomination in the next few days. In two weeks, things should start to even out. Start looking at polls two weeks from now on June 29. Then two weeks after that, stop watching the polls again until two weeks after the end of the party conventions. That takes you to around August 15 when the polls will become meaningful again.


Then time when I said we should start to pay attention to the polls has arrived. Trump's and Clinton's bounces from securing their nominations have ended. The latest poll shows Clinton with a 2 point lead nationally. The last two weeks have been terrible for Trump. It's hard to imagine how he could have made more mistakes. Even so, he's nearly tied with Clinton.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/