Pick SC GOP primary and NV Dem caucus winners

[Kembal]

For reasons inexplicable to me, only the GOP primary in SC and the Dem caucus in NV are this Saturday. The GOP caucus in NV is on 2/23, and the SC Dem primary is on 2/27. Makes no sense why they didn't coordinate these things. (Iowa and New Hampshire have their act together in this sense.)

I'll open up separate threads for the two later contests, so make your picks for the contests on 2/20 only.

My picks: Trump for SC GOP and Clinton for NV Dem.

I'll update everyone's record in a bit.

[ClydeR]

Trump in SC.
Clinton in NV.

Nevada is really hard to call, because they have such a poorly organized caucus with thin participation. They're an early state only because of Harry Reid. Now that he is retiring, I fully expect Nevada to lose its early state status in 2020.

[drauz]

Trump and Sanders

[elcidcannon]

Trump/Clinton

[WRoss]

Trump Clinton

Trump is going to fair well in the South. On the other hand, Sanders is going to struggle in states in the South and West as the voters in the Democratic primaries/caucuses make up more minorities

[Kembal]

Results after NH:

ClydeR: 3-1
Archigeek: 0-2
Drauz: 2-2
elcidcannon: 0-2
everan: 0-2
Jarvan: 2-2
Fallen: 2-0
Ardwen: 2-0
SHAFT: 1-1
Kembal: 2-0

[Jarvan]

I really don't want to say Trump.. for many reasons. But right now polling shows him ahead still. I DO think that is likely to change.

Sanders for NV, but Clinton will have more Delegates.

Trump for SC. Rubio a strong second.

[Atlanteax]

Bush somehow wins SC (can hope) and Sanders in Nevada

[Jarvan]

Bush somehow wins SC (can hope) and Sanders in Nevada

Bush will be lucky to get 10%... and will stay in even if he gets 1%.

Here is the crappy/weird thing with this election.

I don't think Trump can ever get more then the 30-40% range in the primary.

As long as there are 3+ people, Trump has a shot. If/when Carson/Bush/Kaisch drop out... it's more likely to help Rubio then Cruz. I doubt most if any real amount of their voters will go to Trump.

In a Head to Head matchup, I don't think Trump can win any state.

[Parkbandit]

Hoping for:

Rubio / Sanders

But it will be:

Trump / Clinton


I hope this Sanders defeat in the primaries will highlight how fucking crooked the Democrat nomination process is. Voters have very little say due to "Super" delegates.

[Fallen]

Trump/Clinton

[Jarvan]

Hoping for:

Rubio / Sanders

But it will be:

Trump / Clinton


I hope this Sanders defeat in the primaries will highlight how fucking crooked the Democrat nomination process is. Voters have very little say due to "Super" delegates.

Actually, the Super delegates are added in afterwards. Granted, the caucus will likely be rigged like Iowa, but the super delegates won't make her win, just give her more delegates when everything is over.

[Kembal]

I hope this Sanders defeat in the primaries will highlight how fucking crooked the Democrat nomination process is. Voters have very little say due to "Super" delegates.


The GOP has a similar system to the Dems' superdelegates. They just don't call them "superdelegates"...they're called RNC delegates instead.


7. RNC delegates matter: It’s often said that, unlike the Democrats, the GOP does not have “superdelegates” – that is, unpledged delegates who can vote for whomever they want. But this is not, strictly speaking, true. Each state is awarded so-called “RNC delegates,” who are party officials with automatic credentials to the convention. This presumably gives an establishment candidate a leg up; but if an insurgent won the pledged delegate county and the popular vote, the pressure to back that candidate would be immense (something similar happened with Barack Obama in 2008, although he arguably did not win the popular vote).

Link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/11/17/the_gop_race_for_delegates_an_interactive_tool.htm l

i.e. Both systems are crooked. :)

[zennsunni]

I agree, the super delegate thing is so fucked it's unbelievable. And *everyone* suffers from this, including Republicans, because it fosters our useless status quo by preventing unusual candidates from shaking things up.


Hoping for:

Rubio / Sanders

But it will be:

Trump / Clinton


I hope this Sanders defeat in the primaries will highlight how fucking crooked the Democrat nomination process is. Voters have very little say due to "Super" delegates.

[CrystalTears]

Hoping for:

Rubio / Sanders

But it will be:

Trump / Clinton


I hope this Sanders defeat in the primaries will highlight how fucking crooked the Democrat nomination process is. Voters have very little say due to "Super" delegates.

Agreed. :)

[Jarvan]

The GOP has a similar system to the Dems' superdelegates. They just don't call them "superdelegates"...they're called RNC delegates instead.



Link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/11/17/the_gop_race_for_delegates_an_interactive_tool.htm l

i.e. Both systems are crooked. :)

Yes.. and yet what you are saying is not exactly a lie.. but is hugely misleading.


"The GOP, however, has decided to establish fewer superdelegates than the Democrats. In the Republican Party, the only people who get superdelegate status are the three members of each state’s national party. This means that in the GOP, superdelegates are only about 7 percent of the total number of delegates.


The more important distinction, though, is that Republican superdelegates do not have the freedom to vote for whichever candidate they please. The national Republican Party ruled in 2015 that their superdelegates must vote for the candidate that their state voted for, and that’s the biggest difference between Republican and Democratic superdelegates."


Which basically means, THIS year at least, the Republican party's election is not crooked in the same way the Dems is.
http://www.bustle.com/articles/141611-does-the-gop-have-superdelegates-the-republican-partys-nomination-rules-are-different-this-year

[Latrinsorm]

I agree, the super delegate thing is so fucked it's unbelievable. And *everyone* suffers from this, including Republicans, because it fosters our useless status quo by preventing unusual candidates from shaking things up.You don't think a Kenyan-born Islamic Marxist is an unusual candidate?

[Jarvan]

You don't think a Kenyan-born Islamic Marxist is an unusual candidate?

Once Obama started winning most of the Popular votes, and had a majority of the Reg Delegates, the Super delegates fell in line with him. Same thing that will happen with Sanders.

[ClydeR]

From here on in the primaries, momentum, geography and demography are on Clinton's side. Barring a scandal, she will be the nominee.

On the Republican side, Bush should drop out. It's embarrassing that someone who wants to be President had to get his mother to try to save his campaign. Carson should drop out too. It's too early to say that Trump will be the nominee. Money will start flowing to Rubio. He'd better figure out a better way to use it than Bush did.

[ClydeR]

Bush took my advice! Less than 10 minutes after I called on him to drop out, he did.

[Jarvan]

With Rubio so far looking to be second, and Bush dropping out, this could be a bigger impact then Trump winning.

Yeah.. Trump gets all the Delegates.

Rubio may wind up with most of the money and (since just about all the polling results Trump gets are the ONLY people that will vote for him, as I don't believe he has ever OVER performed) even more of the votes.

If it comes down to Trump vs Rubio, Rubio wins. It's just a matter of who gets out and when. Course.. I believe Cruz beats trump in a head to head. I just don't see Cruz doing good, he has gone WAY to negative.

[Warriorbird]

Trump vs Hillary. Bleah.

[Jarvan]

Well.. I can't wait for SC.

So far... when there is voting, Bernie has kicked her ass.

When there is caucusing where things can be fudged, Hillary wins. I can't wait to see all the videos and accusations after yesterday. You know some shady shit was going down after all..... it's Politics!

[Parkbandit]

Trump vs Hillary. Bleah.

Seriously.

I can't tell you how many "conservative" friends are all on board with the Trump Train.

W+T+F

I honestly don't get it anymore than I get my oldest daughter being a die hard Bernard supporter. I THOUGHT I RAISED HER BETTER THAN THAT!?!?!

I blame her bf. He's lucky we love him.

[Gelston]

Seriously.

I can't tell you how many "conservative" friends are all on board with the Trump Train.

W+T+F

I honestly don't get it anymore than I get my oldest daughter being a die hard Bernard supporter. I THOUGHT I RAISED HER BETTER THAN THAT!?!?!

I blame her bf. He's lucky we love him.

Do you annoy her by working hard and being happy?

[Wrathbringer]

Trump vs Hillary. Bleah.

What a joke. Politics has been a joke for a long time now. The only people that still vote are the ones who haven't gotten the punchline yet. Some people are just bad with jokes.

[Soulance]

Only reason I like this time of year is because it finally give SNL something funny to actually do.

[Kembal]

Yes.. and yet what you are saying is not exactly a lie.. but is hugely misleading.




Which basically means, THIS year at least, the Republican party's election is not crooked in the same way the Dems is.
http://www.bustle.com/articles/141611-does-the-gop-have-superdelegates-the-republican-partys-nomination-rules-are-different-this-year

Huh. Surprised RCP didn't have that on their page. Good for the GOP.

[Warriorbird]

Huh. Surprised RCP didn't have that on their page. Good for the GOP.

Yeah. You'd think the Republican stat site would want that front and center.