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Thread: On the Burning Kingdom

  1. #1

    Default On the Burning Kingdom

    The new daily cases rolling average for the United Kingdom fell to 2000 on May 2nd, the lowest they had been since before the August surge began.

    Twenty six days later, they hit 3000.
    Five days later, they hit 4000.
    Three days later, they hit 5000.
    Tomorrow they will hit 6000, and in a week will hit 10,000.

    2000 daily cases in the United Kingdom prorates to 10,000 daily cases in a country the size of the United States.

    We are currently at 14,000.

    .

    60% of the United Kingdom population has received at least one shot of the vaccine, and 42% are fully vaccinated.
    51% and 42% are our numbers respectively.

    As of Sunday, 20% of our 12-15 population had received at least one shot of the vaccine.
    This 3% week over week increase was half the previous week's 6%, and puts them on track to top out at 27% vaccinated.
    Combined with the asymptotic growth of other age groups puts our ceiling of vaccinations around 60% of the country pending further age groups becoming eligible.

    .

    Throughout this pandemic we have told ourselves that what happened somewhere else was irrelevant.
    It's an Italy thing, it'll be fine here.
    It's a New York and New Orleans thing, it'll be fine here.
    It's a Southern thing, it'll be fine here.
    It's a winter thing, it'll be fine here.
    It's a vaccine thing, it'll be fine here.
    It'll be fine here.
    It will be fine here.

    The virus doesn't care.
    The virus never cared.
    The virus will never care.

    We are not going to vaccinate enough people to keep us out of exponential growth.
    We could, but we won't.

    We are not going to reimplement lockdown protocols until it's far too late.
    We could, but we won't.

    We are going to stand around watching as our numbers see the same explosive growth as the UK's.

    Again.

    .

    There are two silver linings.

    First, unlike the United Kingdom our school year is already mostly over - while they're different around each country, ours generally end in early June while theirs end in early July. This removes the least vaccinated part of the population from the riskiest area they inhabit for a time, which will slow (but not eliminate) our increase. Even this is not unalloyed silver, since if the spike doesn't become undeniable until September enough of us will desperately cling to the openly silly excuse that it's seasonal and there's nothing we can do anyway... and this potentially will be very neatly timed with the first vaccinations becoming critically less effective.

    Second, like the United Kingdom we see an 18 day lag between reported cases and reported deaths. Since they're still in the "considering" and "examining" phase we'll have a good three weeks to see if deaths continue to track to cases:



    There's a theory that since vaccinations are wildly disproportionately administered the old, the number of cases can go up without a concomitant (albeit delayed) increase in the number of serious illnesses, hospitalizations, deaths, etc. This is the first sharp increase in a heavily vaccinated region by which we'll be able to test that theory. If the orange dots stay near the blue line, our cases will continue to inevitably precede deaths, and we'll have a brief warning period that enough of us will ignore just as we have so many times before.

    .

    We have never once been proactive, and enough of us won't be this time either.
    Again.

    But every one of us who is forces the curve that much shallower, forces the curve to start from that much lower.
    Again.

    Every one of us can contribute to the many lives that will be saved, even though no one of us can save the thousands more that will be needlessly lost.
    Again.

    Every one of us has a choice to make, free of any sanction or reprisal.
    Again.
    Hasta pronto, porque la vida no termina aqui...
    America, stop pushing. I know what I'm doing.

  2. #2

    Default

    Shaddap.

  3. #3

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Latrinsorm View Post
    The new daily cases rolling average for the United Kingdom fell to 2000 on May 2nd, the lowest they had been since before the August surge began.

    Twenty six days later, they hit 3000.
    Five days later, they hit 4000.
    Three days later, they hit 5000.
    Tomorrow they will hit 6000, and in a week will hit 10,000.

    2000 daily cases in the United Kingdom prorates to 10,000 daily cases in a country the size of the United States.

    We are currently at 14,000.

    .

    60% of the United Kingdom population has received at least one shot of the vaccine, and 42% are fully vaccinated.
    51% and 42% are our numbers respectively.

    As of Sunday, 20% of our 12-15 population had received at least one shot of the vaccine.
    This 3% week over week increase was half the previous week's 6%, and puts them on track to top out at 27% vaccinated.
    Combined with the asymptotic growth of other age groups puts our ceiling of vaccinations around 60% of the country pending further age groups becoming eligible.

    .

    Throughout this pandemic we have told ourselves that what happened somewhere else was irrelevant.
    It's an Italy thing, it'll be fine here.
    It's a New York and New Orleans thing, it'll be fine here.
    It's a Southern thing, it'll be fine here.
    It's a winter thing, it'll be fine here.
    It's a vaccine thing, it'll be fine here.
    It'll be fine here.
    It will be fine here.

    The virus doesn't care.
    The virus never cared.
    The virus will never care.

    We are not going to vaccinate enough people to keep us out of exponential growth.
    We could, but we won't.

    We are not going to reimplement lockdown protocols until it's far too late.
    We could, but we won't.

    We are going to stand around watching as our numbers see the same explosive growth as the UK's.

    Again.

    .

    There are two silver linings.

    First, unlike the United Kingdom our school year is already mostly over - while they're different around each country, ours generally end in early June while theirs end in early July. This removes the least vaccinated part of the population from the riskiest area they inhabit for a time, which will slow (but not eliminate) our increase. Even this is not unalloyed silver, since if the spike doesn't become undeniable until September enough of us will desperately cling to the openly silly excuse that it's seasonal and there's nothing we can do anyway... and this potentially will be very neatly timed with the first vaccinations becoming critically less effective.

    Second, like the United Kingdom we see an 18 day lag between reported cases and reported deaths. Since they're still in the "considering" and "examining" phase we'll have a good three weeks to see if deaths continue to track to cases:



    There's a theory that since vaccinations are wildly disproportionately administered the old, the number of cases can go up without a concomitant (albeit delayed) increase in the number of serious illnesses, hospitalizations, deaths, etc. This is the first sharp increase in a heavily vaccinated region by which we'll be able to test that theory. If the orange dots stay near the blue line, our cases will continue to inevitably precede deaths, and we'll have a brief warning period that enough of us will ignore just as we have so many times before.

    .

    We have never once been proactive, and enough of us won't be this time either.
    Again.

    But every one of us who is forces the curve that much shallower, forces the curve to start from that much lower.
    Again.

    Every one of us can contribute to the many lives that will be saved, even though no one of us can save the thousands more that will be needlessly lost.
    Again.

    Every one of us has a choice to make, free of any sanction or reprisal.
    Again.
    Thanks Trump.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Back View Post
    I am a retard. I'm disabled. I'm poor. I'm black. I'm gay. I'm transgender. I'm a woman. I'm diagnosed with cancer. I'm a human being.
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    So here's the deal- I am just horrible



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