Stock Market
Trump leaves office with U.S. major benchmarks near all-time highs. But how did his performance stack up with his predecessors?
Not too bad, according to major indexes. Based on annualized returns for the S&P 500 SPX, -0.26%, the U.S. benchmark, Trump (+13.7%) saw the third-best performance of the 15 presidents who have served since 1929, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Trump, however, slightly trailed his immediate predecessor, Barack Obama (+13.8%). Bill Clinton (+15.2%) claims the top spot.
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Anybody want to make any predictions about the stock market during Biden's term? It doesn't seem like there is a lot of room for a sustained increase in values. Over the last 365 days, the market has returned more than 70%. The S&P 500 P/E ratio is above 40 using historical earnings or a bit above 20 using estimated future earnings, and its dividend yield is below 1.5%. The "Buffett Indicator" is at or near its all-time high. Despite those warning signs, overcoming the coronavirus, assuming we do, may create a euphoria that will fuel many excesses, including stock valuations and a baby boom.