As we can see from the last bubble burst, durable goods didn't feel the sting until a year after energy prices were at all time highs.
There is vast differences between 2008 and now. The inflation rate was at 3.75%, so there was no need to increase lending rates, that's obviously not the case now. We are also facing an even bigger problem, that being, the boomer generation at it's peak population is retiring and we don't have the workforce to fill that gap for at least 2 decades and that's only if the gen-z'rs actually decide to have children.
This isn't going to be a recession, it's going to be a depression.
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. ~ Marcus Aurelius“It's a beautiful thing, the destruction of words.”
― George Orwell, 1984
“The urge to shout filthy words at the top of his voice was as strong as ever.”
― George Orwell, 1984
I asked for neither your Opinion,
your Acceptance
nor your Permission.
"The darkest places in hell are reserved for those who maintain their neutrality in times of moral crisis." Dante Alighieri 3
"It took 2000 mules to install one Jackass." Diamond and Silk Watch the Movie
The immigration from Mexico is over, the vast majority of migrants are coming from central America. These folks don't have the technical training to fill the positions, nor do they have the population.
This doesn't even begin to factor in the global demand that will be transferred to the US. The boomer phenomenon is unique to the US, at the end of WW2 Europeans didn't have large families like Americans. Japan started to deal with this problem in the 90's and started transferring their manufacturing base to the countries that purchased their goods I.E. Toyota plants based in the US. Russia is just now feeling the population decline from the Stalin years along with Eastern Europe.
There is no escaping what's coming down the tunnel and there's no current form of government that's equipped to handle the economic deflation.
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. ~ Marcus Aurelius“It's a beautiful thing, the destruction of words.”
― George Orwell, 1984
“The urge to shout filthy words at the top of his voice was as strong as ever.”
― George Orwell, 1984
The Fed is constantly worrying about deflation, as if it was the biggest boogie man of all time, but it really isn't. Products and materials get cheaper as new technologies or processes become moreso efficient, rather than pass those savings onto consumers they're instead pocketed as profits. If instead they're passed onto consumers, who in turn buy more goods, why is that a bad thing.
There are still a sizeable number of Mexican migrants, but you're right the majority are central Americans. And yes a sizeable number are gang recruits. So implement a one strike program, where migrants are granted a work visa until they stop working or get arrested for a misdemeanor or more serious offense and then deport them for 5-10 years. No appeals, no 'but your honor it was just one bottle of tequila', just one express lane out of our country. Trump's plan to accept only migrants who wouldn't use welfare systems should also be codified.