NBA 2014 Playoffs!

[Keller]

This time with an appropriate number of exclamation marks.
Predictions

Pacers over Hawks in 5
Nets over Raptors in 7
Bulls over Wizards in 5
Heat over Bobcats in 6

Pacers over Bulls in 6
Nets over Heat in 6

Pacers over Nets in 6

Spurs over Mavs in 7
Rockets over Blazers in 6
Clippers over Warriors in 5
Thunder over Grizzlies in 5

Spurs over Rockets in 7
Clippers over Thunder in 6

Clippers over Spurs in 7

Clippers over Pacers in 6

[RichardCranium]

Spurs over Heat in six.

[Latrinsorm]

Nice poll, Kelly.

[Latrinsorm]

There have been 64 NBA champions since 1950. Every one of them fell into one or more of the following categories:

1. Top 2 seeds on each side of the bracket.
2. A losing record in games decided by 5 points or less.

Since 1984, when the NBA went to the modern playoff system of 16 teams and no byes, the average champion has had winning percentages of 57%, 69%, 75%, and 83% in games decided by 5 points and less, 6-10, 11-15, and 16+. The regular season champion in close games has never won the title without also being the regular season champion overall and in 6+ games. This year those teams are Spurs, Spurs, Thunder. Close games don't matter, but I guarantee you will hear someone cite San Antonio's 10-1 record in them or Indy's 15-5, because They Just Know How to Win.

With all that in mind, here are the contenders:
Pacers, Heat, Spurs, Thunder
Clippers(!), Raptors(!!!), Hawks

.

The top 8 teams in each conference by record in games decided by 6+ points go like this:
East: Heat, Raptors(!!!), Pacers, Bulls, Nets, Wizards, Bobcats, Knicks (Carmelo #1 MVP)
West: Thunder, Clippers, Blazers, Spurs, Rockets, Warriors, Suns(!), Mavs
(and the top 4 in the West are above the Heat)

Which makes the bracket go like this:

Pacers over Hawks
Heat over Bobcats
Raptors over Nets
Bulls over Wizards

Pacers over Bulls
Heat over Raptors

Heat over Pacers

Spurs over Mavs
Thunder over Grizzlies
Clippers over Warriors
Blazers over Rockets(!)

Blazers over Spurs(!!!)
Thunder over Clippers

Thunder over Blazers

Thunder over Heat

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Being top 10 on each side of the ball is good too. Here are the teams that can make that claim:
Spurs (6, 3)
Thunder (7, 6)
Clippers (1, 9)
Raptors (10, 10)

The other teams that are close:
Heat (5, 11)
Warriors (12, 4)
Timberwolves (9, 12, not in playoffs)

.

.

My guesses:

Pacers over Hawks in 5
Heat over Bobcats in 4
Raptors over Nets in 5
Bulls over Wizards in 7

Pacers over Bulls in 7
Heat over Raptors in 7

Heat over Pacers in 6

Spurs over Mavs in 6
Thunder over Grizzlies in 5
Clippers over Warriors in 7
Blazers over Rockets in 7

Spurs over Blazers in 7
Clippers over Thunder in 7

Clippers over Spurs in 7

Heat over Clippers in 6

[Stretch]

This time with an appropriate number of exclamation marks.
Predictions


Bulls over Wizards in 5

How dare you.

[Latrinsorm]

It's not a huge deal that the Pacers lost. If you haven't seen it, the stat is that since the NBA went to a best-of-7 first round (2003) the Pacers are the fourth #1 seed to lose game 1. The others...

2003: 50-32 Pistons lose to the 42-40 Magic by 5, win the series in 7 by 7.3 ppg.
2007: 67-15 Mavs lose to the 42-40 Warriors by 12, lose the series in 6 by 6.7 ppg.
2011: 61-21 Spurs lose to the 46-36 Grizzlies by 3, lose the series in 6 by 3.2 ppg.

3 out of 22 isn't common but it isn't as rare as I would have guessed, and selecting game 1 is kind of arbitrary anyway. The 56-26 Pacers being 18 games ahead of the 38-44 Hawks doesn't stand out in this sample, and neither does losing by 8. If you squint you can see how the Hawks would be a bad match-up for the Pacers...

-strong point guard play
-wings who are productive but secondary scorers, and while Paul George is an excellent on-ball defender he has frequent lapses off-ball.
-two stretch bigs

...but obviously the Pacers should be able to adjust to these: put Paul George on Jeff Teague, feed Hibbert and West in the post, play Copeland instead of Scola and/or Mahinmi. It's pretty straightforward, and I anticipate Vogel deploying these adjustments by game 3 at the latest. Even if the Hawks win both games prior to the adjustments, they won't win a game afterwards so the Pacers still advance.

[Latrinsorm]

I only watched a little of the Blazers-Rockets game, and obviously LMA's 46-18 and Lillard's 31-9-5 catch the eye, but what stood out to me was an echo of what they did to the Pacers in the only other Blazers game I watched this season: find the weak link on defense and exploit the crap out of it. For the Pacers that's George Hill, for the Rockets it's James Harden, and from the first play they attacked him with Wes Matthews.

Now, Wes didn't score very efficiently or draw a ton of fouls, and the Blazers only won by 2 points in overtime, so they were obviously lucky to win. The point is that Coach Stotts has a smart plan, and more importantly the players and scheme to execute it. There are plenty of teams that will ineptly fumble around going after mismatches on a secondary break or switch, but the Blazers get right down to business and have been doing so all season. Stotts' coaching history is very questionable, but maybe those players just stunk, or maybe his assistants this year are exceptional. Either way, the Blazers have a real advantage over a surprising number of WC teams (Thunder, Rockets, Warriors, Clippers): coaching tactics only go so far, but they still matter.

[DoctorUnne]

Here are my picks

Heat in 4
Pacers in 6
Nets in 7
Wizards in 6

Nets in 6
Pacers in 4

Pacers in 7

Spurs in 5
Thunder in 7
Rockets in 7
Clippers in 7

Spurs in 5
Clippers in 7

Clippers in 6

Finals - Clippers in 7

[Latrinsorm]

I would still be worried about the Pacers going forward. (There's never been a doubt they were winning this series.)

1. They trailed at the half.

2. For all the talk about how their defense is back, the Hawks missed a ton of open looks from 3 in the second half. You can't be giving up open 3s to the Heat.

3. The Pacers destroyed the Hawks in terms of getting foul calls. (Does this make the already insufferable Indiana crowd whining all the more ridiculous? Why yes, yes it does.) We would expect a slight edge there from their season performances, but I wouldn't bank on it going forward.

4. The Pacers have been killing it from the 3 point line: 17 of 38 for 44.7%. For all the talk about Atlanta living and dying by the 3, an average Pacers 3P% could easily have them down 2-0 at this point.

5. Vogel needs to be exhorted by the crowd to put in Copeland. If you really want to make a difference, Indiana crowd, start that chant in the first quarter. We're all glad Scola rediscovered his shooting touch, but his range still only goes so far, he can't warp the defense the way a Copeland in the corner does.

6. Paul George woofing at Jeff Teague. Bro, really? Jay-Z doesn't respond to Soulja Boy.

Bottom line, the Pacers are +4.0 after two home games, which with average home court advantage puts them at +0.5 against a 38-44 team.

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With all that said, I expect the Pacers to play better on the road. The Indy crowd would rather boo the refs/opponents than cheer their men, and this has an extremely negative impact on the Pacer tendency to lose their minds on any call against them (e.g. West, Hill, George). Vogel has already switched Paul George onto Jeff Teague full time, no doubt after reading this topic. I don't know why he didn't bother to do this in game 1, but better late than never. This bodes well for his capacity to switch George onto John Wall after they lose game 1 in the next round, should the Wizards pull off the upset. The path to the ECF isn't clear, but it's navigable.

[Keller]

John Wall terrifies me. Much more than DeRozen or anyone on the Raptors for that matter.

As far as teams beyond the Hawks left in the Pacers' path to the banner, the Spurs are the only team I'm more concerned with than the Wizards. Their guard/wing play is going to hurt.