Anyone check the RNG lately?

[Talonir]

So took my sorc out to the spider temple trying to find a new area to hunt. Just wanted to see how well he could ward them.

Apparently he needs a 58 roll to ward so apparently not the greatest place for him to hunt yet.

But it especially doesn't help when you roll an average of 32.3 on like 22 casts. The priest on the other hand rolled an average of 48.2 on his swings, and 86.75 on his CS web attacks.

I'm sure it's nothing, I'm really just whining.

..... but *has* anyone done any research on the random number generator for PC's?

incant 702
>
An Arachne priest swings a scimitar at you!
  AS: +209 vs DS: +320 with AvD: +31 + d100 roll: +11 = -69
   A clean miss.
>
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +39 == +83
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
(Forcing stance down to guarded)
R>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +2 == +46
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>
An Arachne priest swings a scimitar at you!
You dodge just in the nick of time!
R>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +37 == +81
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +68 == +112
  Warding failed!
  A powerful hit.
   ... 5 points of damage!
   Throat strike causes the Arachne priest to cough.
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>
An Arachne priest swings a scimitar at you!
You evade the attack by a hair!
>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +14 == +58
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +39 == +83
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>incant 702
...wait 1 seconds.
R>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +8 == +52
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>
An Arachne priest swings a scimitar at you!
  AS: +209 vs DS: +301 with AvD: +31 + d100 roll: +48 = -13
   A clean miss.
R>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +37 == +81
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>incant 702
...wait 1 seconds.
R>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +11 == +55
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>
An Arachne priest swings a scimitar at you!
  AS: +209 vs DS: +301 with AvD: +31 + d100 roll: +96 = +35
   A clean miss.
>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +39 == +83
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +58 == +102
  Warding failed!
  A nice hit.
   ... 5 points of damage!
   Strike to the Arachne priest's left arm sprains biceps.
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +18 == +62
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>
An Arachne priest swings a scimitar at you!
  AS: +199 vs DS: +301 with AvD: +31 + d100 roll: +38 = -33
   A clean miss.
>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +28 == +72
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +48 == +92
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +7 == +51
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>incant 702
>
An Arachne priest draws a runic symbol in the air.
>
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +30 == +74
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +89 == +133
  Warding failed!
  A strong strike.
   ... 15 points of damage!
   Strips of flesh flayed from the Arachne priest's back.
   The Arachne priest is stunned!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>
The air stops shimmering around you.
R>
Your spirits are no longer lifted by stories of Kai's Triumphs.
R>
An Arachne priest stirs dazedly trying to steady himself.
R>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +31 == +75
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +62 == +106
  Warding failed!
  A painful blow.
   ... 15 points of damage!
   Large lesions sprout on the Arachne priest's weapon arm.
   The Arachne priest is stunned!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +40 == +84
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>
An Arachne priest points both hands at you!
A thick cloud of wisps gathers around an Arachne priest and quickly spreads to cover much of the surrounding area.  The cloud solidifies and resolves into a sticky web.
R>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +14 == +58
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>incant 702
...wait 1 seconds.
R>
An Arachne priest draws a runic symbol in the air.
>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +19 == +63
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>incant 702
You trace an intricate sign that contorts in the air while forcefully invoking Mana Disruption...
Your spell is ready.
You channel at an Arachne priest.
  CS: +132 - TD: +108 + CvA: +20 + d100: +5 == +49
  Warded off!
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
Roundtime: 3 sec.
R>
An Arachne priest points both hands at you!
Cloudy wisps swirl about you.
  CS: +146 - TD: +125 + CvA: +15 + d100: +92 - -5 == +133
  Warding failed!
The wisps solidify into thick strands of webbing that tighten about your body!
W>incant 702
You can't do that while entangled in a web.
W>
An Arachne priest swings a scimitar at you!
  AS: +189 vs DS: +178 with AvD: +31 + d100 roll: +69 = +111
   ... and hits for 3 points of damage!
   Thumped your chest.
W>incant 702
You can't do that while entangled in a web.
W>incant 702
You can't do that while entangled in a web.
W>
An Arachne priest draws a runic symbol in the air.
W>incant 702
You can't do that while entangled in a web.
W>
An Arachne priest points both hands at you!
Cloudy wisps swirl about you.
  CS: +146 - TD: +125 + CvA: +15 + d100: +86 - -5 == +127
  Warding failed!
The wisps solidify into thick strands of webbing that tighten about your body!
W>mutt
You can't do that while entangled in a web.
W>
An Arachne priest swings a scimitar at you!
  AS: +189 vs DS: +178 with AvD: +31 + d100 roll: +37 = +79
   A clean miss.
W>growl
You can't do that while entangled in a web.
W>
An Arachne priest swings a scimitar at you!
  AS: +189 vs DS: +178 with AvD: +31 + d100 roll: +45 = +87
   A clean miss.
W>
The webs dissolve from around you.
>
Your SIGN OF WARDING is no longer effective.
>
An Arachne priest draws a runic symbol in the air.
>
[isigns]>sign of warding
Your dancing fingers weave a web of protection around you!
>
[ Sign of Warding: +0:04:39, 0:04:39 remaining. ]
>;go2 town
--- Lich: go2 active.
[go2: ETA: 0:00:08 (41 rooms to move through)]
[go2]>east
[go2]>east
Moving forward, you get too close to the rippling, sticky web!
Dozens of silk threads spin into action, ensnaring your body!
W>
You can't do that while entangled in a web.
W>
An Arachne priest points both hands at you!
Cloudy wisps swirl about you.
  CS: +146 - TD: +125 + CvA: +15 + d100: +91 - -5 == +132
  Warding failed!
The wisps solidify into thick strands of webbing that tighten about your body!
W>
[go2: reducing typeahead setting...]
[go2: restarting script...]
[go2]>help lag-check
You can't do that while entangled in a web.
W>
An Arachne priest draws a runic symbol in the air.
W>
An Arachne priest points both hands at you!
Cloudy wisps swirl about you.
  CS: +146 - TD: +125 + CvA: +15 + d100: +78 - -5 == +119
  Warding failed!
The wisps solidify into thick strands of webbing that tighten about your body!
W>
Your SIGN OF SHIELDS is no longer effective.
You feel drained!
W>
[isigns]>sign of shields
You can't do that while entangled in a web.
W>
An Arachne priest swings a scimitar at you!
  AS: +189 vs DS: +158 with AvD: +31 + d100 roll: +34 = +96
   A clean miss.
W>
An Arachne priest draws a runic symbol in the air.
W>
Your SIGN OF DEFENDING is no longer effective.
W>
An Arachne priest swings a scimitar at you!
  AS: +189 vs DS: +148 with AvD: +31 + d100 roll: +100 = +172
   ... and hits for 24 points of damage!
   Well placed shot to the neck!
   You are stunned for 2 rounds!
You feel a fierce poison coursing through your veins!
!SW>
The webs dissolve from around you.
!S>
[isigns]>sign of shields
[go2]>help lag-check
You are still stunned.
!S>
[isigns]>sign of defending
You are still stunned.
!S>
No help files matching that entry were found.
!S>
[isigns]>sign of defending
[go2]>help lag-check
An Arachne priest swings a scimitar at you!
  AS: +189 vs DS: +271 with AvD: +31 + d100 roll: +4 = -47
   A clean miss.
!>
Your dancing fingers weave a web of protection around you!
!>
[ Sign of Defending: +0:04:39, 0:04:39 remaining. ]
No help files matching that entry were found.
!>
[go2: ETA: 0:00:08 (41 rooms to move through)]
[go2]>east
Moving forward, you get too close to the rippling, sticky web!
The web turns away harmlessly from you.
[Spider Temple, Leg of Acolytes]
You are moving slowly and cautiously down a narrow hall that runs from east to west.  You also see an ebony door.
Obvious exits: east, west
!>
[go2]>east

[Latrinsorm]

When I back out dice from a set of observations, I use the standard deviation and average of the distribution. For a 1d100, those are 28.9 and 50.5 respectively.

Trying to ascertain the distribution directly from the standard deviation of each bin would take forevvvveeerrrrrr. For example, in 22 trials your values for avg and sd on each bin would be: 22 * .01 = 0.22, sqrt(22 * .01 * .99) = .47, so 0 and 1 are within two sds, but what it means to be within two sds is 95% confidence, so out of 100 bins you wouldn't be surprised if 5 were at 2. (xkcd just did a comic about this, the one about green jelly beans.)

Another interesting way to look at the problem is to run a brute force mockup in Excel or whatever. I just knocked out 5 measurements of 1000 trials and the 5 averages I got were 50.4, 49.0, 51.1, 49.6, and 50.1. On the last measurement I looked bin by bin, here's the raw data:

10
8
18
7
11
10
10
8
13
11
7
3
9
12
10
6
12
9
10
16
7
3
8
16
6
4
15
9
7
12
9
13
16
14
10
9
15
14
13
8
10
9
8
11
8
8
25
11
10
13
10
13
16
13
10
5
15
5
11
8
7
7
7
7
8
10
7
6
9
11
12
6
15
9
7
7
8
10
10
14
8
11
6
8
7
12
16
11
12
12
12
8
15
4
6
13
11
8
12
2

The minimum was 2 at 100 (proof that Excel is rigged!!!), maximum was 25 at 47. 72 bins were within 1 standard deviation (expected 68), 23 more were within 2 for a total of 95 (expected 95), 4 more were within 3 for a total of 99 (expected 99.7), and the last was between 4 and 5 standard deviations. The average standard deviation of the distribution was 29. In other words, apparently wild deviations from the expected were (suspiciously) neatly within the bounds we expect from standard deviation, and that's all the way out at 1000 trials.

tl;dr or hate math;dr: it takes a lot of work to demonstrate a RNG isn't working as intended if it is, because a lot of what seems like evidence isn't.

[Talonir]

Um... yeah.... totally agree...

(What the hell did they just say???)

:-)

But seriously, I get what you're saying. Thought I have to admit to being curious if anyone has ever made a script or something to store truly large amounts of rolls to test. Creature rolls separate from Player rolls, CS from AS, whatever.