bard luck service math

[gilchristr]

The L5 bard service gives a 20% for a reroll on combat rolls.

The math is not necessarily intuitive, but easy so I thought I would share. You can calculate the benefit of a re-roll based on this equation: 1-(probability of failure)(probability of failure).

A quick example - if your attack has a 90% chance of success, such as a CMAN attack, then you havea 10% chance of failure. The chance of success you get on the 20% of attacks that get the reroll is: 1-(.1)*(.1). In this case, .99, or 99% chance of success.

So, when you have a 90% chance of success on a normal attack, you have a 99% chance of success on a re-roll. That's like a +9 to CS on 20% of your attacks.

You can compare that to +15 CS from ensorcell (CS flares). Of course, the bard luck service activates at times that ensorcell doesn't, such as defensive rolls, CMAN rolls, SMR rolls, etc.

Another quick comparison is with a 50% chance of success. Using the same equation, on the luck flare, the chance of success rises to 75%. For a CS attack, thats like getting +25 CS. So for that chance of success, the bard luck flare provides more benefit than the +15 CS from ensorcell.

[ButterBacon]

The problem is ensorcelling is permanent, so it makes sense to spend some money on it. Ensorcelling will have you potentially putting T5's on multiple sets of gear, while you'd only need to do the luck item once.

Luck requires more upkeep which is annoying. Permanency is a highly desirable feature. I'm not sure the extra luck juice required for recharging for folks that went for it really offsets the number of people that don't bother at all because of the upkeep.

If it was an item service that permanently altered weapons, shields, armor, runestaves etc. with appropriate combat roll luck it might even pass Cleric Juice in weekly rates. 625ish skill max for 100% success eliminates the utility of mutant bard builds to charge a real premium.

L6 being broken is a bummer too.

My main is a bard so I'd love to be wrong, but I'm expecting this to eventually end up at 2m/wk.

[RAR]

It seems to be a really good service but I'm not a fan of non permanent stuff. I've been selling all my inspiration. It's just another treadmill for us to burn time and resources on. Treadmills seem to work though. I re-bought into the enhancive system and do bounties full time. I imagine the treadmills have extended the shelf life of the game.

[gilchristr]

It is permanent, as long as you put into into a non-crumbly item. Yes it has a recharge cost, but its comparatively very inexpensive, especially if you have a bard and don't have to pay another player to do it