On ambushing ranks with open ambush

[gilchristr]

"No scientific study evidence here, but feels noticeable."

You could be right, but without more, given the GM post, sounds like it could be memory bias (when you picked up the ambush ranks, your brain fucked you over into remembering less of the misses than your brain remembered for you from before you picked up the ambush ranks)

Any of our brains could have fucked us over too, not really your fault. Time to recover those TPs now though...

[hamsquatch]

So what does that mean for those not at cap?

[Arqueto]

Ambush has more importance at lower levels/amounts of training.

For my 2x CM level 40 warrior, adding 18 ranks of ambush takes me from something like a 54% chance to 74%.

Someone made a handy Google Sheet that you can play with pretty easily to see how it impacts you specifically:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...ry6QXjJuXjVt3s

[hamsquatch]

Super thanks!

Ambush has more importance at lower levels/amounts of training.

For my 2x CM level 40 warrior, adding 18 ranks of ambush takes me from something like a 54% chance to 74%.

Someone made a handy Google Sheet that you can play with pretty easily to see how it impacts you specifically:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...ry6QXjJuXjVt3s

[Aluvius]

Yeah, without worrying about any other factors just add your CM skill bonus and Ambush skill bonus and divide by 2. You want to be at least at 100 and the closer to 200 the better.

Its just a quick rule of thumb I like to use when thinking about training, its from an earlier Naijin Discord ambush thread.

[Mohrgan]

Super interesting seeing this formula after so many decades of debate. To me, it's really interesting to learn what we should see where the maximum possible "guaranteed" success rate to hit especially the head/neck/eye areas. Essentially, if my math is right, with Maxxed CM at 302 and good stats at cap, you will pretty much be able to achieve 95 in the SKILL portion of the formula. Assuming you are using an OHE without a negative modifier (for me, it's a handaxe with a modiufier of 0), then it just comes down to, for example, an expected (probability) success rate of 70% for eyes, 80% for neck and 85% for head, when factoring in the random element (the d100).


So actual probability of success is (success I read as total >100)
For eyes ( 95-25= 70): 1 - (probability of d100 >30) ---which is 70%
For neck (95-15 = 80): 1 - (probability of d100 >20) ---which is 80%
And head (95-10 = 85): 1 - (probability of d100 >15) --- which is 85%

The existence of "hard cap" for the skill calculation (95) was the missing puzzle piece.

Convoluted way of calculating it/thinking about it, maybe, but this is how it makes sense to me. The upshot being, gonna reclaim those 30 ambush rank TPs that I've had for decades, because with my CM and STATs at cap, with 0 ambush ranks my Skill factor would be 95.5 (rounds to = 95) vs currently with 30 ranks of ambush is 125.5 (rounds to = 95).

Cool to see this longstanding debate get some official input and clarity, thanks to OP for posting, for those of us who don't spend much time on the discord!

[loxe]

What's confusing me though, according to the released info for ambushing from hiding CM plays no part.

[gilchristr]

"For eyes ( 95-25= 70): 1 - (probability of d100 >30) ---which is 70%
For neck (95-15 = 80): 1 - (probability of d100 >20) ---which is 80%
And head (95-10 = 85): 1 - (probability of d100 >15) --- which is 85%"

I think you might observe higher success because I would expect when you "miss" the head on this roll, you then hit a random location which a not insignificant chance of being the head.

[Mohrgan]

"For eyes ( 95-25= 70): 1 - (probability of d100 >30) ---which is 70%
For neck (95-15 = 80): 1 - (probability of d100 >20) ---which is 80%
And head (95-10 = 85): 1 - (probability of d100 >15) --- which is 85%"

I think you might observe higher success because I would expect when you "miss" the head on this roll, you then hit a random location which a not insignificant chance of being the head.

Ahh, good call. So that plus whatever the odds are of randomly hitting that spot, seems reasonable.

[hamsquatch]

I previously had 30 ranks of ambush which I dropped recently. With 0 ranks my success to head was 67 with the formula provided. With 10 ranks (50 bonus) I’m up to 80 or 85, seems like anything more isn’t worth the cost as an open ambusher?

I 2x Cman all the way of course.