Ruth Bader Ginsburg died

[Fortybox]

Chuck Schumer's first tweet in response to this news:

https://twitter.com/SenSchumer/statu...963428357?s=20



This was literally minutes after the news broke. It's like he had the tweet saved just waiting for the minute RBG died so he could troll McConnell. Keep it classy, Chucky.

They did. It was the 2016 election.

Trump won and he will win this election too.

[~Rocktar~]

She should have retired long ago under Obama but her selfish pride would not let her. Maybe we can get another constitutional conservative and put the brakes on the activist court bullshit.

[~Rocktar~]

She should have retired long ago under Obama but her shelfish pride would not let her. Maybe we can get another constitutional conservative and put the brakes on the activist court bullshit.

Oooo, the whiny leftists didn't like this post. Well, fuck off. Her arrogant ego wouldn't let her retire, her judicial activism is part of why we have the phrase "legislate from the bench" and we need an conservative focused on the constitution says and means, not what people want it to say to help bring us back from the brink of oblivion.

Hopefully we can come back from the precipice of the leftist cliff without even more violence and a real civil war. I am not confident it's possible much to my deep sorrow.

[drauz]

Oooo, the whiny leftists didn't like this post. Well, fuck off. Her arrogant ego wouldn't let her retire, her judicial activism is part of why we have the phrase "legislate from the bench" and we need an conservative focused on the constitution says and means, not what people want it to say to help bring us back from the brink of oblivion.

Hopefully we can come back from the precipice of the leftist cliff without even more violence and a real civil war. I am not confident it's possible much to my deep sorrow.

I just said it was a piece of shit thing to say and I stand by that. I mean you couldn't even be bothered to spell your insult right.

[~Rocktar~]

I just said it was a piece of shit thing to say and I stand by that. I mean you couldn't even be bothered to spell your insult right.

Oh no, it's the grammar police.

[drauz]

Oh no, it's the grammar police.

[Stolis]

I may not have agreed on several things with her, but she was still a Supreme Court Justice, and she tried to do what she felt was right. She agreed on some things, disagreed on some as well. I never met her, but I hope she was an overall good person.

Rest in Peace, Justice Ginsburg.

[ClydeR]

Leave it to me to foresee the consequences that you have all missed.

All Republican Senate candidates in close races will have to answer before the election whether or not they will vote for a replacement nominated by Trump if Trump is not reelected. In some states, especially Maine, the answer to that question may determine the outcome of the Senate race.

Nominating someone before the election will be risky for Trump. The safer course would be to promise that he will appoint someone great but that he will wait until after the election so as not to politicize it. Promising a great judicial nominee is a lot easier than finding one, sort of like how promising a great health plan is easier than revealing one.

If Trump nominates someone before the election and if it appears likely that the Senate will confirm the nominee, then Trump will suffer electorally among conservatives who approve of the nominee. "What!?" I hear you asking through the computer screen. Allow me to explain. Another conservative Supreme Court judge would give conservatives a 6-3 margin on the court. Without the pressing need for a Supreme Court majority, religious conservatives who support Trump solely to regain the court will be relieved that they will not have to vote for a candidate they loathe.

I am not predicting the following, but it would not surprise me. Realizing the above, Trump might announce that he will nominate someone great if he is reelected but that he will not nominate anyone after the election if he is not reelected.

It will take the experts several days to think through it to reach the same conclusions.

[Methais]

Leave it to me to foresee the consequences that you have all missed.

All Republican Senate candidates in close races will have to answer before the election whether or not they will vote for a replacement nominated by Trump if Trump is not reelected. In some states, especially Maine, the answer to that question may determine the outcome of the Senate race.

Nominating someone before the election will be risky for Trump. The safer course would be to promise that he will appoint someone great but that he will wait until after the election so as not to politicize it. Promising a great judicial nominee is a lot easier than finding one, sort of like how promising a great health plan is easier than revealing one.

If Trump nominates someone before the election and if it appears likely that the Senate will confirm the nominee, then Trump will suffer electorally among conservatives who approve of the nominee. "What!?" I hear you asking through the computer screen. Allow me to explain. Another conservative Supreme Court judge would give conservatives a 6-3 margin on the court. Without the pressing need for a Supreme Court majority, religious conservatives who support Trump solely to regain the court will be relieved that they will not have to vote for a candidate they loathe.

I am not predicting the following, but it would not surprise me. Realizing the above, Trump might announce that he will nominate someone great if he is reelected but that he will not nominate anyone after the election if he is not reelected.

It will take the experts several days to think through it to reach the same conclusions.

This whole election is going to be about turnout. 99.99999999999% of people who are voting have likely already made up their minds who they're voting for, or at least who they're voting against.

[time4fun]

There are a few things in motion right now, and for some of them it's pretty clear where things are headed while for others it's wild cards.


Dems will be fired up. Republicans will be fired up. Independents will likely start breaking for Democrats as they don't like it when one party has too much power.
This will fire up Democrats, but candidly this tends to be motivating to the group that's already definitely going to vote no matter what. This will fire up Trump supporters, and that will matter. It will grab him a few points from Evangelicals who had started to soften a bit on him. Independents in the US genuinely dislike when one party appears to have too much power, and they tend to break heavily for the other party in those cases, and it's very likely that we'll see that play out here. But these groups don't show up in equal proportions around the country, so it's really unclear what the overall thrust of this will be.

Collins and Gardener went from almost assuredly toast to the walking dead.
As far as the Senate goes, Collins and Gardener just saw their slim chances of holding on evaporate. Regardless, they'll want to try to hold on so they won't be voting to push a nomination process forward before the election. McConnell won't try anyway.

McSally is probably still going to lose (and that really matters)
If McSally were anyone other than herself, this would likely mean that she would coast to re-election. But she's not, and Kelly has a huge lead right now. She only has a GOP defection rate of about 5-6%, which isn't much to work with here, and she's getting slaughtered with independents already- who are likely to be even more skeptical of her after this. But it's AZ, so you never know for sure.

Tillis should thank his lucky stars
Tillis likely just got the hail mary he's been praying for. At minimum, this will likely take his race from most likely out of the running to legitimately neck and neck. He was missing about 20% of the GOP vote in North Carolina. They'll likely find their way back home after this.

Kelly may throw a massive wrench into everything for McConnell if he wins
Arizona is the single most important race, however. If Kelly wins he can be sworn into the Senate as early as Nov 30th since he would be replacing McCain's replacement. It would be his job to carry out the rest of McCain's term. At that point in time, the Senate is at a 52-48 split. Murkowski and Collins are not likely to vote for anyone Trump nominates this time. Collins will be on her way out and likely won't want this to be her legacy. And Murkowski has enough cover with the Garland situation. That puts the votes 50-50.

Cory Gardener may be the next John McCain...or just the next Collins.
At that point in time, you just need one Cory Gardener- who loathes Donald Trump and who will be on his way out the door- to decide if he wants to vote his party or his conscience.

McConnell almost assuredly retains his position next year now.