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Thread: On the Gross Domestic Products

  1. #1

    Default On the Gross Domestic Products

    Per the Bureau of Economic Analysis we took a -33% GDP in the second quarter, putting us at -10% on the year. You may have read that this is the worst quarter on record (1946-present) but I thought a graph was in order. Here's the last 30 years of annual real GDP changes:



    Germany, meanwhile, took a -10% in the second quarter, putting them at -3% for the year. Their economy of course only goes back 30 years which is why I used that timespan above, and here's how it looks for them:



    This will be a once in a lifetime medical crisis.

    It doesn't have to be a once in a lifetime economic crisis.

    Do as the Germans do. We already are... kind of, half-heartedly, intermittently. Since it's well known that a pound of prevention is worth sixteen pounds of cure, we're probably going to have to turn the German approach up to 11, but the sooner we get started on that the less likely we'll need one that goes to 12.
    Hasta pronto, porque la vida no termina aqui...
    America, stop pushing. I know what I'm doing.

  2. #2

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    Germany also didn't have a political party in charge of all major cities and most major states that went out of their way to make the shutdowns as damaging as possible to get this exact result they wanted in an election year.

    Rather than "do as the Germans do" it should be more like "Let's put petty politics behind us and come together as Americans." But sadly one major political party would rather see the US burn than to give the sitting president another term.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tgo01 View Post
    a bunch of nonsense
    Itíll be ok Karen, itíll be ok.
    Tell us more about how well our economy is going, and how ALL medical experts have said children donít easily pass Covid 19 to others.
    Last edited by Solkern; 07-30-2020 at 06:33 PM.
    The idiot award goes toÖ

    Quote Originally Posted by Neveragain View Post
    The Constitution is not the Declaration of Independence. (I'm not at all surprised that you don't know this)
    An hour later:
    Quote Originally Posted by Neveragain View Post
    "That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, that whenever any form of government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government." ~ The Constitution

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tgo01 View Post
    Germany also didn't have a political party in charge of all major cities and most major states that went out of their way to make the shutdowns as damaging as possible to get this exact result they wanted in an election year.

    Rather than "do as the Germans do" it should be more like "Let's put petty politics behind us and come together as Americans." But sadly one major political party would rather see the US burn than to give the sitting president another term.
    New York City is at phase 4 reopening months before the election. Did Mayor de Blasio switch parties when I wasn't looking? After his Presidential "campaign" I wouldn't be surprised lmbo (laughing my b*** off) boom roasted.

    New England is the one area of the country that's kind of doing an okay job on coronavirus:



    Now Mayor Garcetti, he's clearly trying to destroy Los Angeles. I'd give you that one, but given how loudly he campaigns for the Olympics he's probably just a bozo.
    Hasta pronto, porque la vida no termina aqui...
    America, stop pushing. I know what I'm doing.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Latrinsorm View Post
    Interesting I didn’t realize we were this bad in Denver, Colorado. Breaking news for me. I’ll have to ask my brother who works at a local hospital how bad it is.
    Last edited by Seizer; 07-30-2020 at 09:46 PM.
    Semper superne nitens.

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seizer View Post
    Interesting I didn’t realize we were this bad in Denver, Colorado. Breaking news for me. I’ll have to ask my brother who works at a local hospital how bad it is.
    i'm going to have a more detailed post on this tomorrow but that site has already recalibrated their scale once a few weeks ago: the states doing the worst job were so far off their scale that it looked like they were the same as states doing a merely poor job. when 41 states are "trending poorly", it's clearly worth knowing the gradations within that

    in that vein colorado is in uncontrolled spread which is very serious trouble, but it's not like you're in a texas/florida situation, and since they are starting to level off i'm hopeful other states won't reach it either, so the site hopefully won't be compelled to do another recalibration
    Hasta pronto, porque la vida no termina aqui...
    America, stop pushing. I know what I'm doing.

  7. #7

    Default

    I also thought it would be worthwhile to point out again that there is not now and has never been a choice between fighting against the pandemic and fighting for the economy.

    Here's what Germany's daily cases per million capita per week look like:



    This is a textbook case of the hammer and the dance: it's impossible to eradicate the virus, and without a vaccine it's impossible to reach herd immunity, so every reopening will eventually cause a rise in cases. But if we get the cases low enough before reopening, we can have a long and safe opening before pulling back when cases start to rise, and repeat that until the vaccine is discovered and administered.

    Here's what ours look like next to theirs:



    And you can see four major mistakes we made, which I have labelled geometrically:



    red circle - after being in almost perfect lockstep with their growth, we wait slightly too long to shut down and so explode past them
    green rectangle - after waiting slightly too long to shut down, we don't shut down that thoroughly and so don't see nearly as sharp a decline
    dark red triangle - and despite seeing about as many cases as Germany did at their peak (440 to 470) we decide to proceed with reopening, which was WAY WAY WAY too early
    and that cute little cuddle-bug the blue pentagon? that's where Germany pulled back after seeing their daily cases increase allll the way to 44 per million

    They didn't wait for hospitalizations to follow suit, they didn't wait for deaths to follow suit, they didn't smugly assure themselves that these cases were magically different from all the other cases. They saw the increase, they pulled back, they stopped the increase.

    Our increase started at the very same time: from 06/08 to 06/22 they saw a 61% increase and we saw an 86% increase. The difference starts the next week, when their prudent common sense approach engendered a 23% decrease and our THESE COLORS DON RUN approach engendered a 27% increase. Had we done the German method we would have stopped the rebound cold, and Florida's single day death record would still be 83, set all the way back on April 28th.

    But we didn't.

    And Florida's record set all the way back on yesterday is 253.

    .

    Our choices are:

    save the economy and save lives, or

    endanger lives and kill the economy

    Seems like an easy call to me!
    Hasta pronto, porque la vida no termina aqui...
    America, stop pushing. I know what I'm doing.

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by Latrinsorm View Post
    without a vaccine it's impossible to reach herd immunity
    Where do you get that idea from?

    From everything I have read thus far this virus isn't unique, it's just new. So that means once you have the virus and recover from it you will build an immunity to it, how long that immunity lasts isn't yet known because, well, it's new.
    Last edited by Tgo01; 07-31-2020 at 12:09 PM.

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tgo01 View Post
    Germany also didn't have a political party in charge of all major cities and most major states that went out of their way to make the shutdowns as damaging as possible to get this exact result they wanted in an election year.

    Rather than "do as the Germans do" it should be more like "Let's put petty politics behind us and come together as Americans." But sadly one major political party would rather see the US burn than to give the sitting president another term.
    Holy shit you never disappoint.
    Razzle them. Dazzle them. Razzle dazzle them.

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bobmuhthol View Post
    Holy shit you never disappoint.
    Oh goodie, Bob is here armed with his dictionary and insults in a vain attempt to prove how intelligent he is.

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