This is the End

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

A long time ago someone showed me a picture of him in a vest and top hat is all. Looked very Cat in the Hat.

[Wrathbringer]

at the current rate using antibody studies to confirm untested cases we will at the earliest achieve herd immunity at one million deaths

NYC on May 21st had 19.9% antibody presence with observed cases of 2.3% = (197004/8399000)

nationally we currently have observed cases of 2,943,823, so actual cases of 25m, to reach herd immunity we need 60% population infected or put another way we need to increase our cases by a factor of 328.2 * .6 / 25 and applying that same factor to 120610 deaths = 950,946

this rate of over 2900 deaths per 1m population would be by far the worst in the world - the current high is 843

this assumes immunity lasts long enough that exposure based herd immunity even works, and assumes no deaths at all due to an exhausted medical system. there's no way to evaluate the first assumption until we try, but we do know that nine states are already at elevated ICU occupancy with an eighth of the outbreak so the second assumption seems extremely fraught

.

OR!

we could do like Germany and just print our way out of it, saving our lives AND preserving the economy

this assumes fiat currency spelt with an E works like fiat currency spelt with a D

1. You aren't factoring in the massive amount of unreported asymptomatic and mild cases, which are by the most conservative estimates 70+% of all infections.

2. There is zero proof that the current "slow the spread" measures are saving any lives that would have otherwise been lost and lots of proof that they are rather costing lives in other unforeseen ways unrelated to covid.

3. The longer we allow this virus to drag on, the more time it has to mutate into something that could kill us all.

4. 1m deaths = 0.3% of the US population.

5. As for saving the economy, it has already recovered and is again setting new highs, thanks to Trump's flawless economic policies, and not everyone is even back to work yet. #MAGA

So let's preserve what little value is left in the dollar for the 99.986% of those who survive and allow the virus to run its course and disperse.

[Latrinsorm]

Seems disingenuous to assume the death rate would 8x current rates, but you do you bra. I like your chicken little style. Do you still wear a top hat and vest?

edit had to revise my multiplier.

8x cases, 8x deaths. cut the deaths in half if you like, that's still half a million.

i don't know what picture you're thinking of but i have never worn a top hat

[Tgo01]

So what exactly is the solution? 70% of the people stay home while 30% of "essential" workers keep working to take care of us? Surely that is sustainable.

We might not reach herd immunity with exposure because immunity might not last long enough? Well then we're fucked anyways because vaccines aren't nearly as effective as natural immunity, this is even assuming we find a safe and viable vaccine.

I'm all for people saying we should do something different to try and stem the number of cases and deaths, but no one who says this ever has a solution! Instead they just tear down whatever it is people are trying.

It is literally not sustainable to keep the economy shut down. Honestly I'm surprised the economy bounced back the way it did after 3+ months of lockdowns. That's only because the government pumped a shit ton of money into the economy, but once again that's not sustainable because eventually investors in US debt is going to realize it's just a house of cards waiting to fall.

It's time for people to stop pushing panic porn and realize what we are doing might be the best solution. Will people die? Unfortunately yes, but the alternative of "Keep everything shut down until we find a cure" means EVERYONE dies.

[Latrinsorm]

1. You aren't factoring in the massive amount of unreported asymptomatic and mild cases, which are by the most conservative estimates 70+% of all infections.

2. There is zero proof that the current "slow the spread" measures are saving any lives that would have otherwise been lost and lots of proof that they are rather costing lives in other unforeseen ways unrelated to covid.

3. The longer we allow this virus to drag on, the more time it has to mutate into something that could kill us all.

4. 1m deaths = 0.014% of the US population.

5. As for saving the economy, it has already recovered and is again setting new highs, thanks to Trump's flawless economic policies, and not everyone is even back to work yet. #MAGA

So let's preserve what little value is left in the dollar for the 99.986% of those who survive and allow the virus to run its course and disperse.

1. i did, by using antibody presence instead of confirmed cases - antibodies are generated regardless of report, symptoms, or severity. you may notice that 1 - 2.3/19.9 = 88%, so i actually factored them in even more than you did

2. someone whom you shoot in the head could have died from something else the next day, or the next week, or the next year, and it is impossible to prove otherwise. i strongly encourage you to NOT use that as a defense should you ever find yourself on trial for murder

3. Germany had 400 new cases of coronavirus yesterday. not deaths, cases. 30 states individually had more than that. if you really want to eliminate the virus, do what the former did, not the latter. they could have the same rate of cases for a month and barely catch up to what Florida did today

4. 1m deaths is 0.014% of the world population. the united states, in point of fact, is not the entire world

5. 10% unemployment and -35% GDP are only new highs in the extreme wrong direction

deflation does not preserve value, because it has a tremendously chilling effect on the economy (which we absolutely do not need right now). people with much more information and training than you or i discovered a long time ago that mild inflation was the best way to keep the economy thriving. to hit that target, we need immediate and sustained inflationary pressure.

[Tgo01]

Also note that the original peak in cases was 34,364 on April 4th, the peak of deaths was 2,749 on April 21st, a lag of 17 days.

Cases once again reached ~34k on June 19th at 33,578 cases, 17 days later on July 6th the number of deaths was 378, but okay let's go by yesterday's number of 993.

That's one third the number of deaths going by the same number of cases spaced 17 days apart.

Clearly a big portion of the original deaths were failures at the state and local level of not doing a better job of protecting people in nursing homes.

Also many more younger and healthier people are making up a large number of the cases now which also helps lower the death rate. When a good portion of the cases are old and sick people in nursing homes because everyone else is forced to stay at home of course it's going to fuck with the death rate.

[Latrinsorm]

So what exactly is the solution? 70% of the people stay home while 30% of "essential" workers keep working to take care of us? Surely that is sustainable.

We might not reach herd immunity with exposure because immunity might not last long enough? Well then we're fucked anyways because vaccines aren't nearly as effective as natural immunity, this is even assuming we find a safe and viable vaccine.

I'm all for people saying we should do something different to try and stem the number of cases and deaths, but no one who says this ever has a solution! Instead they just tear down whatever it is people are trying.

It is literally not sustainable to keep the economy shut down. Honestly I'm surprised the economy bounced back the way it did after 3+ months of lockdowns. That's only because the government pumped a shit ton of money into the economy, but once again that's not sustainable because eventually investors in US debt is going to realize it's just a house of cards waiting to fall.

It's time for people to stop pushing panic porn and realize what we are doing might be the best solution. Will people die? Unfortunately yes, but the alternative of "Keep everything shut down until we find a cure" means EVERYONE dies.

it is. this is because, as you may have heard, money isn't real. the government can print as much of it as it wants, whenever it wants. that 70% of people not being exposed is literally identical to the plan of 70% of people having immunity: it is enough for the virus to not have enough hosts to continue spreading and the cases dwindle to near zero. this is not hypothetical. it has worked in many other countries, and it can work here too. it is a radical solution but it is our only option left - try

vaccines don't have to be as effective as natural immunity, they only have to have less severe side effects than hospitalization, permanent crippling injury, and death. if everybody gets covid every three months, a million die every three months. if everybody gets vaccinated every month, nobody dies. having nobody die three times as often doesn't matter because 0 * 3 = 0

i have offered the solution, repeatedly, in this thread: just do what germany did. of course, prevention is known to be between 15 and 17 times as effective as cure, so we're going to have to do it a lot more now because we screwed up so badly to start with, but the principle is sound. germany didn't see a torrential outflow of investment. japan didn't. why would we be any different?

the only question is how long we want to wait

Arizona and Texas have set daily death records since i posted YESTERDAY

how many more states will it take?

[Drew]

What's your source on the bottom chart of countries?

[Latrinsorm]

Also note that the original peak in cases was 34,364 on April 4th, the peak of deaths was 2,749 on April 21st, a lag of 17 days.

Cases once again reached ~34k on June 19th at 33,578 cases, 17 days later on July 6th the number of deaths was 378, but okay let's go by yesterday's number of 993.

That's one third the number of deaths going by the same number of cases spaced 17 days apart.

Clearly a big portion of the original deaths were failures at the state and local level of not doing a better job of protecting people in nursing homes.

Also many more younger and healthier people are making up a large number of the cases now which also helps lower the death rate. When a good portion of the cases are old and sick people in nursing homes because everyone else is forced to stay at home of course it's going to fuck with the death rate.

new york state peaked at 800 deaths per day, or 41 per million

arizona is already at 16

if it or another current state reaches 41, will you agree that you were wrong about the nursing home thing?

[Latrinsorm]

What's your source on the bottom chart of countries?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

they don't keep past data on that page though