Recession? Not in the U.S.

[ClydeR]

It's depressing that you didn't have any original thoughts while I was gone. You're just posting about the same subjects I raised months ago before summer break. So sad. Well, you can stop clinging to my shadow, because I'm back! Let's get to work.

The first order of business is this ridiculous notion that the United States might be headed toward a recession. As President Trump said, the rest of the world is in a recession but not us. Recessions in Germany and China may be our fault, but they aren't our problem. The President's job is to put America First.

The chairman of the Federal Reserve better be careful. You know what happened to everybody else Trump started complaining about on Twitter. If the chairman of the Fed doesn't cut interest rates, Trump will fire him! Not that we need a rate cut, since we're not having an economic downturn.

That yield curve thing inverted again today. Not important.

[Parkbandit]

It's depressing that you didn't have any original thoughts while I was gone.

1) You haven't had an original thought since you started posting here in 2007.
2) No one with an IQ over 50 missed you while you were gone.
3) Fuck off Fallen.

[Neveragain]

It's depressing that you didn't have any original thoughts while I was gone. You're just posting about the same subjects I raised months ago before summer break. So sad. Well, you can stop clinging to my shadow, because I'm back! Let's get to work.

The first order of business is this ridiculous notion that the United States might be headed toward a recession. As President Trump said, the rest of the world is in a recession but not us. Recessions in Germany and China may be our fault, but they aren't our problem. The President's job is to put America First.

The chairman of the Federal Reserve better be careful. You know what happened to everybody else Trump started complaining about on Twitter. If the chairman of the Fed doesn't cut interest rates, Trump will fire him! Not that we need a rate cut, since we're not having an economic downturn.

That yield curve thing inverted again today. Not important.

I for one am happy to see you back. Personally I try to be as honest with my political calls as possible and tonight I'm changing my position some on the 2020 election results. I should add that this does not in any way reflect how I would vote.

In my decision making I use different forms of gauges to formulate my findings. I think there's a very good chance that the Democrats will win if and only if they run these candidates Tulsi Gabbard or Bernie Sanders. Tulsi would be a for sure win simply because of her military background and the way she presents herself, Bernie would be a very expensive campaign for the Democrats (which is ironic).

A couple questions still remain for me though. Those being, are we going to see a Republican candidate run against Trump? and will we see a "surprise" Democrat candidate enter the race in October or early November?

I'm not seeing a recession though, the job market is way to strong for that, gasoline is pretty cheap and has been really stable. We are still a couple years out from a recession. This thing with china will be over before the harvest.

[Alfster]

The only thing I disagree with you on is the issue with china. It's not nearly over - and our farmers are fucked. They're done buying agriculture products and that business isn't coming back.

And Tuesday Trump went so far as talking about helping out one of our most profitable companies, which I assume means bailing out....apple.

[Neveragain]

The only thing I disagree with you on is the issue with china. It's not nearly over - and our farmers are fucked. They're done buying agriculture products and that business isn't coming back.

And Tuesday Trump went so far as talking about helping out one of our most profitable companies, which I assume means bailing out....apple.

Like I said, China will be buying American soybeans come harvest time.

[Parkbandit]

The only thing I disagree with you on is the issue with china. It's not nearly over - and our farmers are fucked. They're done buying agriculture products and that business isn't coming back.

Last time I heard that "that business isn't coming back" was the Obama administration talking about manufacturing jobs.

And that didn't age very well...

[Alfster]

Solid point. Still done see the Chinese caving in this, as they've already made long term plans that do not include soybeans from us.

Maybe they'll pull something out, but the odds are low.

[Parkbandit]

Solid point. Still done see the Chinese caving in this, as they've already made long term plans that do not include soybeans from us.

Maybe they'll pull something out, but the odds are low.

Yet, they keep coming back to the table.

I, for one, am glad we finally have a President who's not afraid of negotiating our way out of shitty deals.

[Whirlin]

Just as an FYI,
China's pig crop has been decimated this year due to outbreaks in swine flu, exacerbated as a result of their factory style farming conditions leading to a more widespread pandemic among their livestock. It's estimated that about 70-80% of the pigs were lost this year. This is difficult to find too much public news on, since China is fairly closed lip about it. But if you google specifically for that, you'll find a trove of information.
So... why does this matter?
Due to China's population, they import a lot of soybeans... as feed... for pigs. No Pigs, no Soybeans. It is NOT a result of Trump's actions, it's a result of plague and unsanitary conditions making it worse.
It's actually a fairly big, global problem, China has a fairly established soybean infrastructure for processing soybeans that is effectively lost due to the pig plague, and given the precarious nature of farming finances, it's unknown whether or not a recovery is possible, feasible, and definitely not looking likely. If we consider other sources of protein, we've already begun to see price increases for poultry.

https://www.freshmynews.com/2019/02/...flu-infection/
https://www.cfr.org/blog/outbreak-af...china-one-many
https://www.vox.com/2019/6/6/1865546...ever-pig-ebola

Trump's soybean tarriffs will not destroy US farmers. China's shitty factory farming conditions did it all on their own. Soybean tariffs really shouldn't be a factor anymore.

[Alfster]

Yet, they keep coming back to the table.

I, for one, am glad we finally have a President who's not afraid of negotiating our way out of shitty deals.

Just wish he could close a deal.

Seriously though - I don't pretend to understand what it takes to close a deal like this, it's the lack of a contingency plan that frustrates me. I'm all for getting better trade deals, but when we have no one else lined up to purchase it, we end up bailing them out for a product we all don't need. Isnt the platform against socialism?