Brett Kavanaugh

[Fortybox]

In another thread cwolff is saying Trump removed US troops from South Korea because he plans on nuking North Korea.

I think the title is safe in cwolff's hands for a long long while.

Why can't they both share the crown?

[ClydeR]

In the 1991 Clarence Thomas nomination hearings, the public's perception of the nomination was that it was about whether or not Anita Hill was telling the truth. With no evidence other than her own testimony and with a presumption of innocence in favor of the accused, the public and the Senate sided with Thomas.

Prior to the publication of this accusation against Kavanaugh, the public was evenly split on Kavanaugh's nomination. If the public comes to view the nomination as a ruling on the credibility of the accuser, then public opinion could quickly shift in Kavanaugh's favor.

On the other hand, if the public views the accuser as being treated unfairly by Republicans, then that could have an impact on the upcoming elections.

For their own protection, Republican Senators should give the accuser a fair hearing. If she has nothing other than her own testimony, then a hearing will also benefit Kavanaugh.

[cwolff]

In the 1991 Clarence Thomas nomination hearings, the public's perception of the nomination was that it was about whether or not Anita Hill was telling the truth. With no evidence other than her own testimony and with a presumption of innocence in favor of the accused, the public and the Senate sided with Thomas.

Prior to the publication of this accusation against Kavanaugh, the public was evenly split on Kavanaugh's nomination. If the public comes to view the nomination as a ruling on the credibility of the accuser, then public opinion could quickly shift in Kavanaugh's favor.

On the other hand, if the public views the accuser as being treated unfairly by Republicans, then that could have an impact on the upcoming elections.

For their own protection, Republican Senators should give the accuser a fair hearing. If she has nothing other than her own testimony, then a hearing will also benefit Kavanaugh.

The old rules are gone. We're in new territory. Not to mention the differences.
1) Thomas was accused of harassment on the job
2) Kavanaugh's accused of attempted rape/sexual assault while still in H.S.
3) There was no MeToo for Hill. Harrasment was more accepted.
4) The GOP is a different animal today than then. There's no pretense of fairness or decency and like it or not Trump's their leader and willing to say any and all kinds of shit which they will excuse.
5) There's no longer any perception that SCOTUS is non-partisan.

We're in something of a winner take all culture war. The Kavanaugh appointment is get out of jail free card for trump and the republicans aren't afraid of scorched earth tactics to get ahead. He'd have to rape Melania on the steps of congress for them to turn him down.


If we're lucky he'll withdraw his name from consideration and we're back to the drawing board.

[Androidpk]

At this point putting forth his name for a vote is risky, especially now with Flake speaking out.

[cwolff]

At this point putting forth his name for a vote is risky, especially now with Flake speaking out.

I don't know man. These senators have spoken out before but they still vote party line. Collins got duped like a dipshit and Flake talks a big game but votes trump's agenda. IMO, might makes right in American politics and that's especially true today. The right's playing for keeps and they consistently act as if the shoe will never be on the other foot.

[Fortybox]

At this point putting forth his name for a vote is risky, especially now with Flake speaking out.

[Fortybox]

I don't know man. These senators have spoken out before but they still vote party line. Collins got duped like a dipshit and Flake talks a big game but votes trump's agenda. IMO, might makes right in American politics and that's especially true today. The right's playing for keeps and they consistently act as if the shoe will never be on the other foot.

[time4fun]

At this point putting forth his name for a vote is risky, especially now with Flake speaking out.

Agreed. I'm not sure how long Flake will actually hold out, but if the committee takes a vote and can't move him forward- it'll be a huge blow and will lead to the kind of negative press cycle that could kill some enthusiasm in right-leaning independent voters who are already feeling iffy about Congressional Republicans.

And right now Red state Democrats are desperately looking for an excuse to vote no while Collins and Murkowski are in full-on risk aversion mode and could see this issue as the straw the broke the camel's back, as it were.

Though the thing I'd most be worried about if I were them is pushing him forward two months before an election that is already showing a huge enthusiasm boost among white suburban women who have largely turned against the GOP. There are several critical Senate races and dozens of House races that are looking to be razor thin right now. Another 1 or 2 points shifted in favor of the Dems could be enough to do serious damage to their ability to hold on to the House (though that's already looking like a bit of a lost cause) and the Senate.

Of course, on the flip side of this- the post-election lame duck period is going to completely remove any pressure on Red state Dems to vote yes (regardless of how their elections go) and on Collins/Murkowski to vote yes.

[Fortybox]

I actually think Kavanaugh is going to make it through and become a Justice. I just think the Dem strategy is to air every piece of dirty laundry they can find on him and then turn around and point at this whole mess to incite people to come out for them in the all important mid-terms.

Hopefully that strategy will backfire.

[cwolff]

I actually think Kavanaugh is going to make it through and become a Justice. I just think the Dem strategy is to air every piece of dirty laundry they can find on him and then turn around and point at this whole mess to incite people to come out for them in the all important mid-terms.

That's ambitious for the Democrat party. It seems like they don't have any strategy at all. There are more than enough issues for them to be hammering. Things like voting rights, corruption in trumps cabinet, booming national debt because of tax cuts and trump's fucked up tweeting. The sun is shining and they can't make hay. It's like they're afraid of success.

Or even this little chart (which seems out of date) trump criminal admin.jpg There are so many varied and unsavory things they could capitalize on but they fail to get the message out. I'm starting to think they/we need an Avenatti. At least he's willing to fight back.