Originally I was skeptical as well, but realistically if Manafort is sitting on as many secrets as everyone suspects- him talking will be as dangerous after Trump leaves office as it is during the investigation.
If Trump pardoned him now- there's a solid case of corrupt intent that could convince the Courts to invalidate it. If Trump pardons him after the investigation is over, it's going to be a LOT harder to get the Courts to intervene. Manafort's strategy has been to stall the Courts for 2.5 years, IMO.
That strategy probably just fell apart. I'm skeptical that Manafort is going to be able to hold himself together in prison- he knows Mueller offers extremely generous plea bargains.
Right, because a pardon means you assume guilty which means you can't plead the 5th any more. He could still refuse to cooperate but Mueller would then just toss his ass in prison until he started to cooperate. A pardon would only make things worse for Manafort and would cause serious political damage to Trump.
The one thing we're not considering, though, is a commutation. If Manafort holds out long enough, Trump can just commute his sentence on his way out the door.
Manafort could still plead the 5th on any new crimes- even if related to the old. It's been a looong time since I took con law, but I am pretty sure commuted sentences aren't an admission of guilt.
Lock him up!
Lock him up!
Lock him up!
BREAKING: Judge has ordered Paul Manafort jailed pending trial. He was just stepped back into custody, gave a brief wave to his wife before going back into another room out of site. Judge denied request to stay pending appeal.
Last edited by Androidpk; 06-15-2018 at 11:48 AM.
Last edited by Methais; 06-15-2018 at 01:07 PM.