Buying Batches of 10-20m

[Archigeek]

The exact market price at any specific time is hard to peg, but the upper boundary is easier to figure out. I define the upper boundary as the lowest sell offer price that remains on the market longer than 12 hours. For example, a player offers at $6.50 per, and the offer remains open for 12 hours. $6.50 is the upper boundary price. The actual market rate can be much lower than this, but it cannot be higher.

Right now a sell offer is open at $5/per, and it has been over 12 hours. So the implied market rate is below $5, and likely somewhere in the 4's right now.

This presumes that threads get closed when all is sold, takes no account for the quantity for sale, and leaves market manipulation completely out of the question. Someone selling 20 million at $5/mil, has little impact on the market, and may leave their post unedited for days after all has been sold.

[Ososis]

I enjoy smart people. Thank you for explaining it.

Lol.

[BLZrizz]

This presumes that threads get closed when all is sold, takes no account for the quantity for sale, and leaves market manipulation completely out of the question. Someone selling 20 million at $5/mil, has little impact on the market, and may leave their post unedited for days after all has been sold.

Yes, the framework is based on publicly available data. So that's definitely something to account for, but my assumption is that posters behave rationally in announcing their products and level of availability, and that's likely not an assumption that's would account for much variance in estimated price.

The other assumption that counterbalances this is the per silver rate of private sales. While i have no information about those, I do have one assumption that I'm fairly confident about: the per silver rate that occurs via private transcation is almost always below the public, observable rate.

It's also fairly simple to assess the nature of the offer in determining market impact. A sale offer from an unknown poster for 3m at 5 per would receive less weight. But imagine this is a senior poster who sells silver often, has a capped character that generates much and spends little, who offers at 5/per. This person likely is a market maker at that price.

The framework doesn't account for market manipulation because it is nearly non-existent in the PC market. As I've stated before, this is for three reasons: 1) too easy to discern manipulation attempts; 2) market participants are too few and easily identified; and 3) there's not much to be made in the long-run.

[Roblar]

Enough talk, I will sell 100M, at $8 per!

[Methais]

The exact market price at any specific time is hard to peg, but the upper boundary is easier to figure out. I define the upper boundary as the lowest sell offer price that remains on the market longer than 12 hours. For example, a player offers at $6.50 per, and the offer remains open for 12 hours. $6.50 is the upper boundary price. The actual market rate can be much lower than this, but it cannot be higher.

Right now a sell offer is open at $5/per, and it has been over 12 hours. So the implied market rate is below $5, and likely somewhere in the 4's right now.

If you're referring to my thread, they're selling steadily at 5 per. I don't update the thread every time a sale is made. Half the time I forget to update it after I sell out.

$5-5.5 per is still the going rate. Sold a bunch for 5.5 a week or two ago, sold a bunch for 5 today, I have more being sold later tonight, and will probably bump back up to 5.5 per after the holidays are over. Anyone who sells for less is simply ripping themselves off.

Like many others, I thought WPS for silver would set a floor, but that turned out to be a nothingburger as the availability of WPS for silver opportunities are so tightly constrained and unpredictable that it has almost no effect on demand. More predictable opportunities (like a monthly WPS merchant with 25 slots) would likely improve this.

I'm more interested in hearing what Simu has to say about this. Didn't they sell this whole WPS thing to us as WPS services being extremely common and easy to get? I haven't kept up much with it but I'm guessing there have been little to no WPS services offered since the last DR?

[Ottyssey]

Zissu posted this on the official forums back on Aug 26:

Moving to the above rescale allows W/P/S services to be offered more commonly at events, and even through automated NPCs. W/P/S offerings will be at most events, big or small, free or otherwise. Wandering merchants may also offer the service on occasion. While it is debuting at Duskruin as a bloodscrip service, it will be offered for silvers at most other venues. The system is built to replace the randomness of limited raffle wins and reward consistent progression.

And I received an email blast from Simu on Oct 11 advertising WPS changes that said:

For years, these services were always on the extremely rarer side, but that’s no longer the case! Moving forward, weighting, padding, and sighting will be offered at more venues with more opportunities to improve your gear!

And at EG, on the tail of that email blast, we had access to... a live merchant that raffled off a limited number of services and charged for the privilege. wompwompwomp

So who knows? I can't find a quote for it, but I recall reading that part of the idea was they wanted it to be affordable for casual folks to get things up to heavy without having to break the bank, but they would have to do it 10 services at a time. Assuming merchants were even available every 60 days exactly, that would still take you over 2 years. But if they only show up every never days, its hard to get excited about any of it.

[Merzbow]

They made 25 services available to essentially everybody at DR. Getting a smithy invite was incredibly easy (a few extremely unlucky and loud individuals notwithstanding) -- didn't Wyrom say that like 80% of all chars who competed in the Arena eventually got one? And invites were being sold for like 100k silvers towards the end. Then, without comment, in EG, they put WPS behind a merchant and spinner wall and reduced services to 10. And to put the icing on the cake, the timing was such that it was juuuust within the 60 days so if you had an item worked on during DR you were SOL for all practical purposes (unless you wanted to pay 80 million or some shit). WPS is a complete shitshow.

[beldannon5]

does it have to be rolled 10 times to be fair mcguyver? er necro? er 100 other fake accounts?

[trueoutsoldier]

just to verify this is not macguyver/necro

also purchased another 25m from 2 people today.

[beldannon5]

I am not necro/macguyver either Good for you. If you are lying you are just dumb. If you aren't lying then they are dumb. either way someone is dumb. Not me!!