Senior Member
Spell failure funny
Really, whats the odds of rolling the same number twice in a row..
>mana spellup
[Spell Hindrance for a quilted leather arming coat is 4% with current Armor Use skill, d100= 4]
Your armor prevents the spell from working correctly.
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
>mana spellup
[Spell Hindrance for a quilted leather arming coat is 4% with current Armor Use skill, d100= 4]
Your armor prevents the spell from working correctly.
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.
>snort
You make a horrendous warthog-like noise.
1 in 100.Originally Posted by Dazmar
I think its about .01% chance actually or 1 in 10k
Depends how you look at it.
What are the chances of rolling exactly 4 each time? Yeah, 1 in 10k sounds right.
But if you roll a 4 and then ask "What are the chances of rolling a 4 again?" the answer is 1 in 100.
Mister 6 million karma hath spoken.
No it doesn't. The chance to roll a 4 twice in a row is 1 in 10k. No matter how you look at it.
Mr. 2,792,253 rep hath corrected you.
Last edited by drauz; 07-20-2017 at 02:07 AM.
No no no.
Well, okay, yes yes yes but with a caveat.
The chances of rolling a 4 twice in a row is 1 in 10k, but really we're not questioning "What are the chances of rolling a 4 twice in a row" because that's such an arbitrary number to pick, we're focusing on that because that's what he rolled.
The real question is "Now that I have rolled a 4, what are the chances of rolling a 4 again?" In which case the answer is 1 in 100.
Mr. Over Double Your Rep has once again commanded.
The answer to his question is 1 in 10k.
you're:
But the question is flawed. The question should be "What are the chances of rolling the same number again?"
It's like those conspiracy theorists who point out all of the similarities between the Lincoln assassination and the Kennedy assassination. One of those similarities being they were both shot on a Friday.
"What are the chances of BOTH presidents being shot on a Friday?!"
Well Lincoln was shot on a Friday first, obviously, so now the question is "If Kennedy is going to be assassinated too what are the chances of him being assassinated on a Friday too?"
The answer is 1 in 7.
Unless Friday has some sort of significance other than the current day of the week then it doesn't really matter what day of the week Lincoln was shot on, it just matters that the chances of Kennedy being shot on a Friday also is 1 in 7.
Likewise the number 4 has no significance other than that happened to be what he rolled, so now the question is "What are the chances of rolling a 4 again?"
Which is 1 in 100.
/mic drop
Yes, the answer to a different question is 1 in 100. The answer to the question asked is 1 in 10k.
Not to mention your whole explanation is wrong, but thats another story.
Last edited by drauz; 07-20-2017 at 02:35 AM.
Finally! Progress.
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